Tesla has recently opened a design center in North America and Europe, and the numbers point to an upcoming Tesla commercial van. In this video, I discuss why I believe Tesla will soon release a commercial van.
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When you talk about Amazon's delivery fleet, why wouldn't we go electric when we thought if we took Amazon's package, delivery, know-how and ribbons vehicle expertise that we work backwards from the needs of the driver? What could we do? Tesla already has a pickup truck two sedans, two SUVs: a semi truck and a sports car. These are a lot of different markets, but because the company's goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energies, Tesla must enter all of the largest vehicle sectors, including commercial vans. As consumers, the size of the commercial vans sector may not seem very large. However, the size of this market is actually humongous.
The global commercial vehicle market share in 2017 was 1.3 two trillion dollars, and it just happens that the majority of this market share is light. Commercial vehicles, these light commercial vehicles include pickup trucks, three-wheeled vehicles, but, more importantly, vans. These vans make up the majority of the light commercial vehicle market share, and the market is only continuing to expand as the years pass by the global light. Commercial vehicle market is expanding.
At a current annual growth rate of 7.1 %, the market share for vans is worth up to one trillion dollars to put this into comparison to the pickup truck market. The global pickup truck market is only 166 billion dollars owning a fraction of what the market size is for light commercial vehicles in this video I'm going to discuss why I believe Tesla will soon release a commercial van and show you the evidence that backs this up. Tesla's goal has always been to accelerate the world to sustainable energies and without a commercial van, the company won't be able to accelerate the transition at a fast pace in the cyber truck reveal Elon Musk analyzed the pickup truck industry and said that there hasn't been much Innovation and there aren't many electric pickup trucks, it's actually hard to tell it's hard to tell which, which is which really took the brand's. Will we took the brands off, but it's hard to tell, which is which is which rounds over do-don't pretty much look the same.
We need something different and we need. We need sustainable energy. Now, if we, if we don't, we don't have a pickup truck. We can't solve it.
The number one selling truck vehicle in America top three selling vehicles, AmeriCorps pickup trucks we have to solve sustainable energy. We have to have a pickup truck, so I present you. The cyber truck. The commercial van market is extremely similar to the pickup truck market.
There hasn't been much innovation and the size of the market is ginormous. This was evident when Amazon ordered 100,000 Vivian delivery vans. When the products didn't even exist yet take a look at what shopping for a used light commercial vehicle looks like if the light commercial vehicles look almost identical, despite totally different brand names. The opportunity here is massive and Elon.
Musk knows this: in early January, Elon Musk revealed his plan to create a vehicle in China. Musk opened up a Chinese design center and revealed a sketch of a compact vehicle. He then began to talk about how the design center will be dedicated to designing this new vehicle. I think that would be, I think super cool would be to and ever so we're gon na do it I mean do it is to create a China, design and engineering center to actually design like an original car in China for worldwide consumption. I think this will be very excited. I think China has some of the best art in the world and I think it's something that that would be appreciated on up on a worldwide basis, and I think it should be done. You're gon na do it. You know to try something just like kind of radical.
You know like siren truck, you know nobody was expecting that and that's it. So I try to do something just like you know, like just cool and different. Some of the world hasn't seen before, like that. Really moves their heart, guess you're right there and that's that's the kind of part that you want.
We wish there were more of those things. That's what we're gon na do. Just two weeks later, Elon Musk decided that Tesla would also open to design centers with one in the US and the other in Europe. These just happen to be two of the largest markets for commercial vans.
We know that design centers are built for the purpose of creating a new vehicle, and we also know that the commercial van is the last major sector that needs disruption. Given this, it seems likely that Tesla will unveil a new commercial van, but what can we expect out of this vehicle with the overwhelming success of the cyber truck it's safe, to say that Tesla's design will totally blow your mind while we don't know anything about the Design we can estimate the specs and pricing somewhat accurately as long as we look from a business perspective in order to sell well Tesla's, new commercial van must have three key criteria. It must be cheap to reduced and therefore cheap, to sell, energy-efficient and compete with pricing. First, let's start with cheap production costs.
While it is ideal to bring the cost to the lowest, it can be. The commercial vans in general are priced at a premium. For example, the Mercedes Sprinter goes for fifty six thousand dollars and the Ford Transit goes for fifty two thousand dollars. Given this, the Tesla commercial van could go for sub fifty thousand dollars and still sell well, given the fact that it will be electric.
The cyber truck was built in a way where the exoskeleton could be created with just one sheet of Steel. While I don't believe the design will be similar to the cyber trucks, it will certainly be built in a way where the production cost will be lowered to the maximum extent, because Tesla will likely minimize the production cost of the exoskeleton. It's safe. To say that the company will focus on maximizing the specs of the battery similar to the cyber trunk, given that the commercial van will be electric, the vehicle will certainly be more efficient than the existing commercial vans fueled on internal combustion engines, although the initial cost may Be expensive the fact that the maintenance costs will be lowered by a large extent who allow Tesla's vehicles that look like a far better deal than the existing commercial vans in the semi-truck unveil. Elon Musk explained how the maintenance costs will ultimately make the initial price cheap compared to diesel semi trucks. So, even though the semi truck cost $ 180,000 for the longer range version, the fuel savings is more than the initial cost at two hundred thousand dollars. Making the initial cost worthy this will be similar to the commercial van as Tesla will design it in a way where it'll be the best option from an economic standpoint. Having said all this, you're probably wondering: how much is this going to cost because Tesla stuff is expensive, but we realize that trucking, the economics of trucking matter tremendously, if, if you have a truck, if your cost a while is too high, it doesn't make economic sense.
You can't make it work, so we've really thought about slide and when you take everything into account take the least cost the insurance cost maintenance. All of the factors the fully accounted for true cost of trucking a diesel truck will be 20 % more expensive than it. Then it says a semi per mile on retail. This is from day one it from day one having a Tesla semi will beat a diesel truck on economics day.
One - and this is at this - is a worst-case scenario, so it gets better than this. This is the this is the work. This is the worst-case scenario comparison. This is taking max vehicle gross, it's going at 60 miles an hour and it's assuming to $ 50 gasoline price, we're guaranteeing a seven cent kilowatt wholesale price.
What I'm clear about that? This is real, these are real numbers and it only gets better than this. This is a worst case scenario. Now, if you look at the economics of a truck convoy, it gets way better. Now, a diesel truck is twice as expensive as it has a semi.
The business, so it's what this means is: it's not just economic suicide to use one diesel truck its economic suicide for rail; we're confident that this is a product that is better in every way from a future standpoint that wins on economics against diesel trucks. In the worst-case scenario and that defeats rail in a convoy scenario overall, it seems likely that Tesla will reveal a commercial van soon, and once this vehicle goes into production, it will certainly obliterate the sales of the existing internal combustion engines. Due to the fact that it will be the most cost efficient over the long term, if you enjoyed this video, please hit the like button and subscribe so that I know you want to see more video like this. I appreciate your support. .
I put ~50-70 miles per day on my Mercedes Sprinter production van, and only rarely work outside of the county in which I live. An electric Tesla high roof Sprinter-like vehicle would be perfect for my business and I'd buy it in a second.
As a note, price doesn't actually matter on large commercial vehicles like these.
A large portion of their cost is written off as a tax deduction for business owners.
This is partially why the market is so big, companies are incentivized to constantly purchase new ones.
This is also why only the least reliable brands with the worst long term value dominate the market, because the loss of value over time is what you write off.
You wouldn't buy a Toyota sprinter van for $50k that will still be worth $45k in ten years, because you can only write off that $5k value loss.
Whereas your Dodge/Ford/Nissan/Mercedes that goes from $50k to $25k or less im ten years means you only actually pay half price.
It don’t work in singapore. How to enter car park where the commercial van so high?
Canoo has this space cornered. Nobody even comes close. GOEV
Well they may be impressive on the tech side of things, but the design ist straight ugly as i men look at the tesla semi, the suv and this thing.
This would be great for hotel shuttle. The hotel could have fast charger and all runs return to hotel plus for people with large families like a dodge mini van
Wait.. Telsa will actually build a basic EV van, without all the blingy tech B$? Yeah right!
Tesla's all about its glorious $500 door handles.
Great video as usual. I will however differ with you on 'price'. I think there is a shift to aluminium titanium alloy over steel for lighter weight and lower corrosion vulnerability. Vehicles with a 1-2 million mile life need corrosion resistance…particularly as campervan.
Tesla will be playing catch-up in the commercial van market. Others are already showing concepts and plans to go into production. Vans would be great market but it really depends on future success building terra watts of battery cells. That’s in the works but not right around the corner. Where’s Tesla’s prototype van? Look how long it’s taking to get the semi into actual production.
This electric veículo coming to education people in road respect laws transit
Let me guess you want all brands to fail and tesla to be the king and let us be zombies
If you can…buy Tesla shares now. Even if it’s one or two
Hi, any one knows more about Bloom energy as it is a brilliant company to solve energy sector issues? It’s share is increased by 25%
Massive incease in electrical power requires tax increase to pay for nuclear coal gas and infrastructure.Tesla is currently subsidized.
YOU will pay!
They could of built the pickup truck and the van at the same time….
Take the first drawing they’ve showed, the semi “look a like” with the f150 put inside the bed behind. There’s front seat was already push forward like all vans, so all they had to do to make a van from that pickup design is to continue the line of the front of the vehicle to van height and continue that height all the way to the back of the vehicle and you got a van
So the same everything to that design of the pickup, except the upper part of the vehicle to make it van like. That could have been a badass van and a badass pickup
I love vans but my wife says only creeps Drive vans.. I want a conversion with bed, tv, etc.. no need to have a house
Another great video man keep it up. Iam waiting for them to enter the heavy equipment market I think it would have seriously positive environmental benefits.
Autonomous Food delivery. Autonomous medication delivery. Autonomous transporation for the blind, elderly who don't need to drive often, kids under 18 not able to afford a car.
Wish Tesla would make the cybertruck tractor for farming etc
Would be easy to add a Front End Loader (FEL) with electric actuators rather than hydraulics
And a rear actuator for implements such as bush hogs etc
I just did a 50 hour service on my new tractor and what a nightmare. Hydraulic filters x2, oil filter, fuel filter, 10 + greaze points (still have not found a few).
And the dielsel fumes and engine noise when driving.
Cybervan will start offshore, likely Europe, once battery production there can support it.
Damn right they will have a van soon. If they dont pick up that market share early , someone else will.
Very good points, but there is one point that you are missing.
That is, that a commercial van is about the easiest type of vehicle to make electric.
A van is more likely to spend time in urban areas with lower top speeds, and especially for companies requiring vans for fixed routes the expected mileage per day is low and regular – meaning that slow night charging will be more than sufficient. Any car company should be able to make such vans.
Such vans are also not at all exciting as far as vehicles go.
So keep in mind that the choice of entering the pickup truck market was partly psychological, as was the roadster. These vehicles demonstrate that the toughest and fastest vehicles can be electric, and will outperform existing vehicles. That is necessary to prime the public for accepting electric vehicles, whereas an electric van would have just cemented the reputation of electric vehicles as dinky, underpowered, and dull. This is one reason why Tesla has not yet entered the van market.
But there's another important reason: Tesla wants to be competitive and even dominant, but it's purpose is to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, not to utterly crush other automakers. To accelerate the transition there need to remain niches where other manufacturers can compete and have the time to develop their own technology. Vans are great for this, as the requirements are so much lower than for other types of vehicles.
Of course, this also means that the electric van market is going to have the most competition, which in turn will reduce what manufacturers can sell them for, and reduce their profitability. By staying out of this market Tesla can both focus their efforts on vehicles that will be more profitable, and avoid dominating the industry so thoroughly that other companies will not have a chance to make a profit at all.
All these factors combined mean that it may be a few years before Tesla thinks about vans, precisely because it is such an obvious choice. I am sure that when they do finally come out with a van it will handily beat anything the other manufacturers are making, but perhaps by that time the other manufacturers won't be in danger of being overwhelmed to the point of bankruptcy.
It's funny, I was picking my daughter up from dance last night and I saw a Mom in a soccer mom Honda van. I was thinking, wouldn't be great if there was a Telsa EV Van? Great timing and your explanation was very clear.
If they build a 12-18 passenger van suited for tour groups, I will order 10 tomorrow.
Why can't they just take the cybertruck and throw a van back on it….keep it simple, multiple platforms
Wow, that was totally speculation. No discussion of why they have not already done it, no discussion of the challenges.
Yep.
Tesla: commercial vans –> ecommerce.
SpaceX: rockets –> satellites –> internet –> streaming services.
Tesla + SpaceX = very angry Bezos
It would be awesome if Tesla wanted to get into the last mile delivery and drone delivery, a collaboration with Workhorse would be awesome!
Just letting you know, Your mic settings are too tinny. I have to turn volume down
Funny designs…tesla has funny designs for the trucks…😂😂😂😂 …better to trust n buy hummer EVs….