With Tesla's Battery Investor Day approaching, it's no secret that Tesla is going to manufacture its own battery. In this video I discuss everything we know about Tesla's new battery and estimate the specs of Tesla's new battery.
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If you enjoyed this video, please hit the like button and subscribe so that I know you want to see more videos like this! Also, please consider supporting me on Patreon at https://patreon.com/casgains
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All music used in this video was from Lakey Inspired's exclusive patreon music.
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With Tesla's body investor Day approaching Jeff Don Tesla's body research partner has been filing plenty of patents for Tesla's new battery technology, including the NMC cathode new advanced electrolyte single, crystal nca electrode Tavis electrodes in hybrid battery, and for those of you wondering what the hybrid battery Is a spoiler alert, it's in no way related to hybrid vehicles, many channels out there, including this one, have discussed the changes in battery chemistry, but at the end of the day as consumers. The only aspect that matters to us is the vehicle specs in this video. I'm going to estimate the specs for Tesla's new vehicles and go through each of Tesla's new battery patents. Before we begin, I've noticed that almost 95 % of you aren't subscribed.
So please take a moment and hit that subscribe button. If you haven't already, it really helps out with the channel with that being said, let's get right into it in order to estimate the specs for Tesla's new battery, I'm going to use the model three long-range version as the starting specs and develop the specs from there. However, just know that these are estimates and are not meant to be spot-on. The more important part about this video will be the specific body benefits which we'll discuss.
As we continue to estimate the battery specs. The most impactful technology coming to Tesla's new battery is dry electrode coating, which comes from Tesla's acquisition of Maxwell technologies in January of 2019. Maxwell claimed after dry electrode batteries would allow for an energy density greater than 300 watt hours per kilogram, which, in the specs of the model 3, translates to roughly 450 miles of range. The company also claimed that they're on path to greater than 500 watt hours per kilogram, which in the specs of the model 3, translates to 650 miles of range.
It's been almost one-and-a-half years since then, so just to keep our estimates on the conservative side, we will add up 450 and 650 and divide them by 2. This is equivalent to 550 miles of range, which is already quite incredible. Dry, electrode technology will also allow for two times more battery life Tesla's current batteries last for 300,000 to 500,000 miles. So by doubling this number, we obtain a battery life of 600,000 to 1 million miles.
According to Forbes Tesla's body, production costs currently sits at 100 $ 27 per kilowatt hour with Maxwell's dry electrode technology. This will decrease that cost by roughly 15 %, allowing the price to go down to 108 dollars per kilowatt hour in Tesla's q1 2020 conference call. Elon Musk hinted at an upcoming tariff factory in Texas, and this wouldn't be possible if it wasn't for Maxwell's production capacity. Density increase, Maxwell's dry electrode coating will allow for a 16 times production capacity density increase for battery coating, which saves a lot of space when it comes to battery manufacturer.
The NMC cathode and new advanced electrolyte were both released in a patent by Jeff Don. Both of these new advancements will allow for an increase in battery lifetime, specifically over 1 million miles. We don't have any numbers on how much the battery life will increase so out of pure speculation, I'm going to raise the estimated battery lifetime to 800,000 to 1.2 million miles. This advancement of the single-crystal nca electrode comes again from Jeff Don and his team's battery research sources told electric that the nca electrode will allow for a higher energy density than before, which would consequently mean a higher range again. We don't have any numbers on this, so just to stay on the conservative side, I'm going to increase the estimated range by roughly nine percent, which will allow for Tesla's new battery to give the model 3 a range of 600 miles, similar to the NMC cathode new Advanced electrolyte and NCA electrode, the Tablas electrode, was also patented by Jeff Don and his team. However, unlike Jeff Don and his team's other patents, Elon Musk has openly talked about Tesla's new Tablas electrodes by stating that this is way more important than it sounds. The first benefit of Tablas electrodes is cheaper costs. Typically, lithium-ion batteries have two tabs attached to the sides.
In hindsight, the cost to manufacture these tabs may seem very small, but at a large scale the cost can get very expensive. These tabs have a high concentration of nickel, which is an extremely costly metal. Tesla's battery research project, codenamed Roadrunner, looks to lower the cost of Tesla's battery manufacturing below $ 100 per kilowatt hour. First, I just want to remind you that these estimates are purely speculated.
We know the cost of battery manufacturing will be lower. On the other hand, we know that Tesla is attempting to lower the cost, a lot $ 100 per kilowatt hour. So, let's lower the estimate by 10 dollars to get us 98 dollars per kilowatt hour, the next upgrade for Tablas electrodes is faster charging speeds. The model 3 currently takes around 40 minutes to charge fully when add a supercharger with the table electrode, this would mean Tesla's.
Would have far less ohmic resistance and, as a result, I could see this charging time go to as little as 25 minutes. Another key benefit for table electrodes is higher energy density and low or battery temperatures, because there is resistance in the battery tops whenever energy is transferred, this would create Heat by removing the tabs. This would mean less cooling would be needed and therefore, more energy saved, along with this tabs, also take space. So by getting rid of them, this would increase the energy density.
Both of these upgrades are related to an increase in range, which is why I put them together. In my opinion, this would increase the range by around 17 %, allowing our estimated range to go to a total of 700 miles. The last tab is electrode upgrade is faster, discharging speeds with the faster discharge. Speed Tesla's would accelerate in a lot less time. The model 3 long range version currently goes from 0 to 60 and 4.4 seconds with Tablas electrodes. I believe we could see this decrease by around 20 percent, resulting in a 0 to 60 of 3.5 seconds. Overall, there are a lot of benefits for Tabas electrodes and makes sense by Elon Musk stated that this technology is way more important than it sounds. Hybrid batteries are actually a feature.
I don't expect to be released on Tesla's battery investor day, however, Jeff Don Tesla's battery research partner has recently filed a patent application for this new technology and don't worry, the hybrid battery isn't in any way related to hybrid vehicles. Jeff Don called this battery the hybrid battery because it allows for two modes with one mode: increasing the driving range in the other mode. Doing the opposite, the long-range mode will allow for a 20 % increase in driving range in the short range mode will result in a 25 % decrease in driving range. The long range mode has a battery lifetime, far shorter than the short range mode and is built in a way who are doing the occasional long trips.
The user can turn on the long range mode. On the other hand, during the user short commute, they can use the short range mode which has a lifetime a lot higher than the long range mode. If we apply this to our new Tesla Model, 3 long range version, this will mean that on the long range mode, the model 3 will have a range of 840 miles. On the other hand, the short range mode on the model 3 will have a range of 630 miles.
However, don't get your hopes too high on the hybrid battery, as the research is still in its early stages and likely won't be released on Tesla's battery investor day? To go over the estimates we have for Tesla's new model, three long-range version. The new vehicle will have a range of 700 miles, zero to sixty of 3.5 seconds in a charging time of 25 minutes. Along with this, the cost for producing batteries will go down to 98 dollars per kilowatt hour in the battery coding, production capacity will be 16 times larger. To top it all off.
The new model 3 also has a battery lifetime, ranging from 800 thousand miles to 1.2 million miles, allowing the vehicle to possibly last a lifetime. While these are all estimates, Elon Musk has stated that Tesla's battery investor day is the most exciting day in Tesla's history. That means that the most exciting day isn't the Model. S reveal the model 3 unveil a cyber truck reveal or the unveil of the original roadster.
All of these will be less exciting that Tesla's battery investor day the gap between Tesla and the legacy automakers is still expanding as I speak, and it really is becoming blatantly obvious that electric vehicles are our future. If you enjoyed this video, please hit the like button and subscribe so that I know you guys want to see more videos like this. Also, please consider supporting me on patreon in the description below. I appreciate your support. .
I doubt the new batteries will be more than 10% better in range.
"most impactful technology"
Possibly, not exclusively.
FORGET the range fixation!!
Your reference to Forbes is just wrong
They are mixing the low cost, lower density CATL LiFePo4 Prismatic cells (which may be 1 million mile) with the Tesla / Jeff Dahn developed 2170(?) LiIon (NCA?) cells in development.
These will (IMO) have an accumulation of numerous improvements, including:
Over Lithiation (+8-10% improvement)
New Electrolyte chemistry (Dendrite reduction/ removal)
Titanium coated single crystal cathode material (resilience)
Tabless design (lower ohmic resistance…. You got that one right… ish)
And others, including the Maxwell process.
Together with a new pack design (patented) probably common to all vehicles, starting with the Plaid S.
which will reduce the pack price to below $100/kWh. (No 18650 manufacturing/ import cost)
Anyone wanting a detailed technical theory on these and other advances should look at the Limiting Factor UT channel.
Heavy stuff, but explains the real potential.
Meanwhile, forget the range obsession!
The higher the density/ cell resilience, the lower the charging time.
The lower the charging time, the smaller the pack kWh.
The smaller the pack, the greater the number of packs
THAT is the mission of Tesla, to product MORE vehicles, with ADEQUATE packs, which can out-range a reasonable driver then charge quickly.
I own shares of Tesla since $55, I need more people (i.e. suckers) to buy its products, just like Apple. Luckily there are a lot of free reviews and information on Youtube. Thanks for your efforts.
A 500+ mile range would be a massive game changer but would devalue any existing Tesla product and would also be massively expensive…. if Tesla are going to really take sales away from established manufacturers they need a cheaper battery and production technique and to get a great entry level package with a 250+ mile range. Teslaโs are still niche, and the mass buyer doesnโt care about the car being cool or that Elon is out there disrupting a market place, they just want an electric car thatโs cheaper to run overall than an ICE car and that they can charge 90% of the time at home and that wonโt let them down.
The oil producing nations must be shitting it… They will turn back into hot sandy dust bowls they once were…
Tesla really has little to no reason to release a major battery upgrade
Who is catching them in battery range? They are having no problem controlling the Premium EV market
They can play this Trump Card now, or wait until they actually have some real competition
Right now, they have little to no competition that can match them, or slow their sales
When a real competitor appears, then drop this on them. Have them hit a moving target.
This is so stupid. 700 miles is stupid in any application other than the semi. They would obviously just make batteries with similar range to current batteries but with crazy less weight.
Absolutely, 700, 800, 900, and 1000 miles of range will be impressive. I need to see that become possible.
sorry mate, you are assuming here that they keep the same number of cells as they have now in each batterypack, for tesla as a company it makes more sense to lower the number of cells and keep the battery capacity the same AND 75kw is still 75kw no matter the battery tech, yes you may get less heat loss and a lighter pack and thus some more efficiency resulting in more range, but nothing earth shattering. if they are going for Cell To Pack instead of modules they have to redesign the pack anyway so keeping the same packvoltage with fewer cells can easily be done. this way they have more cells availlable to put into other cars otherwise they greatly increase their battery factory output (KW/GW) but not the actual number of battery packs they can create and thus cars they can build (with the same amount of cells).
there's also price, $128*75kw = $9600. now, assuming the new one is the magical $100/kw (at the pack level), 75kw = $7500 (so they can peel 1.5K off the sticker price and still make more money/car) but if they increase the packcapacity by ~50% (and thats prob less then what they need for 700miles in a M3 as it now has 322miles on 75kw) and lets even round that down to 110KW, thats $100*110KW = $11000 (though more likely for 700miles would be $100*150KW= $15000)
for the model S/X it would be $128($100)*100KW = $12800($10000) Vs $100*175KW $17500. doesn't really make sense now does it? (it does change a bit if price per KW is even lower, but only compared to the old pack price)
EDIT
i used $100 because thats the number that everybody seems to throw around as the "magical" number everybody wants to be at (or preferably under).
that being said i would love a 10/20% larger battery pack, bringing the SR+pack in line with the ~65kw packs of the "competition" like e–niro/kona/leaf. 55KW is just slightly on the edge of not quite enough for a decent daytrip (there and back without supercharging).
and you are right on point with the faster charging, that will allmost certainly be a feature of the new pack, a much flatter charging curve with way more time at the peak and a much slower rolloff.
I think you got it all backward! Most people drive like 40-50 miles daily and even if Tesla managed to half the current battery cost one day and make a loaded Model S P200D it would still cost $150K and only for the rich.. 700 miles range would be great but very inefficient since 99% of the time you don't use more then 50 miles daily. It would be like having installed a snow plow on your vehicle and dragging it around all over the place all year round for the couple of times a year when you get hit by a blizzard! It would be much better if they still made a model 3 with 300 miles of range but for less then $30K.. Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy and the more people that can afford the tech the quicker that will occur.. BTW anyone can make a 1000 mile battery! Just add more cells..
"Tabless" cell design has nothing to do with external connection tabs as you explained it…. it's all about the internal "jelly roll" to external connection method. You need to better understand battery technology before making "informational" videos. It has to do with the way the internal "jelly roll" layers connect to the external casing terminations.
To be 100% clear, this video is only speculations, not estimates
Damn. Tesla moves are so big I wouldn't be surprised if it was a conspiracy to take them down! Lol
They're shifting power out of a lot of hands!
Notice the frenzied pace of info vids being shit out by Musk companies. Tesla this, SpaceX that, new and amazing plans. Musk is so financially stretched out now that he is begging Trump for assistance, and sending employees back into contaminated factories. Hence the barge of ads desperately trying to bait badly needed investors. Wobble, wobble, wobble Elon. Which one do you cannibalize to save the other… well, attempt to save the other? The only time sociopaths show emotion is when they lose something close to them… money. ALL HAIL MONEY!
I want a 700 Mile "Barry" swapout. LOL. In any case, nice production value. I wouldn't push that hard for subs. Maybe mention it casually? Just my 2 cents.
What do you get if your guesses are correct. Will you be wrong if your numbers are off by thirty miles ? I mean weโll know in a few days anyway.
Question…. If we have a tesla already, would we be able to swap out a battery to this technology?
Not easy listening… improve your pronunciation of battery … You say "bat ee" you skip the "er" …say "bat er ee" PLEASE.
They wonโt increase range above 500 miles for a long while. If they do have the improvements they will make smaller battery packs which would mean lighter and cheaper cars. It doesnโt mean the cars would be cheaper for buyers though they will probably just increase Teslaโs margins. It might make it cheap enough to put the same battery packs in the short range and long range model 3s and limit their range via software like they did a little bit with the model s. Then they could also sell a battery range unlock at some point.
People.. buy call options shares before battery day. There will be a massive rally if they present information like this.
Could Teslaโs new battery power a commercial plane flight around the world while charging from solar?
There may be slight upgrades but they won't be maxing out the space usage off the hop. Eventually, perhaps years after new battery production they will fully utilize the space. I also think that the 3 won't get it right away, S/X will get it first, then cybertruck and then the model 3. Just like how the model S and X had dated battery tech for years now the 3 will share the same fate.
Let not be exploded by heat.
Tesla bring it soon. World is waiting
Great idea. How long will it take to charge and can it be charged on 120?
Pathetic. If Tesla can't deliver a 1,000 miles range battery after spending so much of everyone elses money, they need to pack up and go home.
As the battery gets more energy dense (watt hours / weight), and if the tabless design reduces weight, price, & thermal waste, Tesla could consider making smaller batteries for some models. And the lighter battery would make for a cheaper car, which would also make for longer range, if only due to the reduced weight. How much smaller sounds to me like a differential equation, given all the variables involved. Exciting times.
Wow! Canโt wait. If true this will bankrupt a few car companies. I hope they can switch to electric before that happens. If cars last 20 years vs 10 there will be a lot less car sales. Also after 1 million miles all you have to do is change the battery pack or motor.
Bu kadar elektrik ve elektronik dalga รงevredeki canlฤฑlara nasฤฑl etki eder acaba ?
Tesla are going to become/add a utility company (Electricity) by not only using their power banks but the car batteries as a connected matrix of mobile power banks. This effectively makes it a commodity to be traded in terms of selling the power and moving it as and when needed likely via Ai/ML for calculating distribution. This will be more profitable than selling their actual cars and will make them cheaper for the consumer to buy in the first place.
I'm realistically hoping for 500 mile battey packs, 1mil mile capacity before 20% range drop, 30% faster charge speed, and 20% drop in battery production cost.
Stretch Goal: breakthrough in commercialized solid state battery production
People typically don't need more than 500 mile packs except for edge cases (towing, extreme cold weather, etc) which having the other factors such as increased charging speed and affordability makes long range batteries easier to buy (more affordable).
We will 100% see the ability to upgrade our current Tesla battery packs to these new style packs in the future (maybe 8-10yrs from now) and it will be more affordable than a new battery pack today. Don't worry, my kids will be driving my Tesla when they get older (or shall I say my Tesla will be driving them?) and it will still be the car of the future!
I love forward thinking companies like Tesla ๐
Why don't we see more Tesla cars around? It don't make sense, Unless it's just because energy of charging comes from no better of a source than oil. Just wondering out loud.
The other element is cost. At $125 per KWh and a 75 KWh battery, the cost of the battery right now is around $10K. We can't let the cost go up or the new 700 mile Tesla will become prohibitably expensive. To keep the cost the same we need (125 x 310) / 700 or about $55 KWh. Ouch! That will take a while so don't schedule a funeral for the ICE mobiles quite yet. However it doesn't look good for the gasoline car given that is the direction that Tesla is driving towards quite rapidly.
700 mile range will do it. The gasoline cars tend to have a range of about 350 miles. There is a reason for that. Most people don't want to drive more than 4 hours or so without making a significant stop and 70 m/h x 4 h = 280 miles. With a 350 mile range, that is 4 hours of driving plus a nice cushion. Electric cars can only be charged to 80% and so 700 m x .8 = 560 m. Then in the winter in cold climates like Chicago, one loses about 40% in range so 560 m x .6 = 336m. That doesn't look like quite enough until you consider that ICE cars also lose about 10% in the same conditions so for ice cars 350 x .9 = 315 m (less than the 700 m range EV). In other words, extra range beyond 700 miles is not needed and is just a waste so the hybrid battery will probably be used to reduce cost instead of increasing range.
The longer a battery lasts the more likely a battery can keep a single human alive during the moons 2 week darkness
The rare element of the new battery of the future is brine and comes from geothermal plants and plants next to it that processes brine I sent a email to tesla i come from Dominica we want to sell brine and build a tesla power station in Dominica I hope Elon answers my email my uncle was the president of Dominica Nicholas Liverpool fingers crossed he replies to my email ๐ฉ๐ฒ๐ฉ๐ฒ๐บ๐ธ๐
oooooooohhh thats why elon was angry about the lockdow
april battery day