Tesla Stock faces a crisis of confidence much like a bank run which is almost what we saw in 2023 in March and what we're potentially seeing now with New York Community Bank in this video, I'm going to provide potential Solutions with a Fep plan for Tesla as well as what you might think as a Tesla investor or investor in Tesla stock. but I want you to start by thinking about this: Who do you think gets sued more doctors who are nice or doctors who are arrogant? It should be obvious, but it might not be something you've considered before. See, even if you're wrong, people have confidence in people they like. So with doctors, the reality is nice doctors, even if they're wrong, tend to get sued way less for medical malpractice than arrogant doctors who are wrong.

And the same thing that's true with doctors getting sued is true with with banks and Bank runs and with stocks like Tesla see, Bank runs are simply a crisis of confidence. New York Community Bank went down as much as 14% Today they got hit with their first lawsuit and Moody downgraded the bank. Yet the stock moved positive. Before the end of the day, the company laid out extremely clear expectations and plans.

Not only did they replace their executive chairperson and said look, here's the reality: We cover our bank balances. Our unsecured cash balances by 1.6x Here are the loans we have. Here's exactly how we're going to cover all of the cash balances we have so people don't have to be worried about a bank run. We are not going to cut our dividend Instead, What we're going to do is we're going to offload mortgages and RV loans and we're going to sell assets as we need to to make sure we can cover our bills.

And if we need to raise Capital we will do that. They also reiterated that there's been virtually no deposit outflow and that's probably backed up by the fact that we kind of have this like Universal guarantee now from the FDIC that people won't lose their deposits at Banks which is essentially what came out of the banking crisis last year. But regardless, the point is, the company provided a very clear plan and even if there is doubt which there is, trust me. I look at New York Community Bank and I'm like I Don't think your RV loans or your mortgages or your multif family loans are worth what you think they're worth I dispute that with the bank I Think the bank's assets are probably worth less.

but the bank gave a plan and so notice how they can be wrong I might be right, they might be wrong. but they gave a plan and the plan provided confidence. New person, new plan changes. Think for a moment about how this affects investor confidence in a bank.

People Think that Okay, maybe now we're at a bottom. Maybe this plan is going to work. There's hope there's a chance. I'll give you some examples here so we could see how the bank run that occurs at Banks is really no different from the crisis of confidence that's occurring at Tesla.

Consider for a moment. Bob Chac takes over at Disney during Covid for a couple years. What happens? We start seeing the failure of Disney with this fear that Disney's mismanaging their relationship with Ronda Santis in Florida potentially mismanaging expectations around the company's brand woke anti-woke this that whatever, what happens, we remove Bob Chac from the executive position and bring back somebody who did great things for Disney Bob Iger Whether or not you agree with that, doesn't matter. The point is, the company did better then than it was doing now and so we went back to a period of confidence.

Ence Consider the executives at NAS they provided terrible numbers, really bad numbers and I'm not very confident in the numbers I got about the future, but they made the argument that Q1 might be the bottom. Q1 might be the bottom. What happens when they suggest Q1 might be the bottom. The Stock's up 16.9% On the day, investors feared that CVS you know, the local drug store investors feared that CVS would have substantially higher medical costs due to the insurance warning they gave, but they said they've managed the risks, the risk gone away or went away, and the stock went up because we provided confidence Baba fell 6% today about it was like 5.9 because they suggested they were in a challenging market and provided no hope when there was no hope.

No plan, no confidence. the stock fell 6% snap beat earnings. but their loss 2.3x on guide and no plan on how they're ever actually going to go. long run profitable.

What happens? Stock down paler beats. the stock goes up not only 30% on one day, but what happens the next day they're up another 7.9% The Stock's now at $23.60 I Opened a position on this in about the 18s and people like Kevin Kevin that that seems high for pound here I'm like. here's my fundamental analysis. Here's why: I Think the stock will do well.

What do we get from the company? beats with excited guidance STS Way up. Guidance is critical because it instills confidence in the vision. People have to have hope whether you think back to 2008, the hell of a recession we were going through. whether you were a Democrat or Republican The reality is people had hope that there would be change now.

obviously we can argue the changes and what was correct politically, but it doesn't matter. People vote on hope. That's why today. Donald Trump is doing so well in the polls because people hope that things will be different, that inflation will go away, that prices will come down.

And the reality is, prices aren't going to come down unless we're in a deep dark recession. Joean PO says the same thing so as Finance Folks, we know that. but people have the hope that things will just feel better if we just change who's in office. A lot of people do okay.

and that's just based on polling today. when you match up Trump versus Biden most of the polls suggest Donald Trump would win right? That's today. Things will be different then maybe. But the point is in the stock market Securities are sold, not bought literally.

The Security and Exchange Commission told me that there's a reason why the Securities and Exchange Commission The SEC suggests we stand for proper disclosure and marketing rules. They're not telling you if an investment is good or bad. They want to make sure that companies that give hope give balanced hope. Hey, like you could be hopeful, but are you providing balance right? That's the point of the SEC To make sure that there's proper disclosure, they're not telling you what's going to be a good investment.

But think about that for a moment. When people hear me say that they're like Kevin Kevin What do what do you mean Securities are sold, not bought I Mean like there's a buyer and a seller. Yes, that's a different kind of selling. See, there's buying something.

So I'm going to buy this cup now. I Have the cup. I'm going to sell the cup now I No longer have the cup. Okay, it's just like I'm going to buy or sell a Tesla I Buy the Tesla I Have the car I Sell the Tesla I Don't have the car.

but there's a different kind of selling and it's called sales. So what if Now I'm the broker for this mug. Hey, did you know you could get this mug at Lego.com They've got about four different varieties in it and this cup. While you might not be able to tell from where you are, but it holds a large amount of coffee.

so I have to get up one less time every single day to get my energy intake from coffee. so I can remain more productive in the office. More productivity in the office every single day. Probably 10x is the value of this cup.

This cup is an investment. It is not a cup. It is a money printer. Okay, that's sales.

Now you might think Ah. Sales sales is sleazy. Sales is trying to like manipulate me and convince me. really.

What I said is a real reality of efficiency or productivity. Sales is actually simply informing somebody of potential value and sales is not supposed to be. Hey, here's a gun. Buy this.

Okay, that's or lying or forcing sales is actually providing value and information. Consider this when the CEO of Nvidia says we are entering a new era of computing and not only are we entering a new era of Computing where we're going to essentially rebuild all a uh server Stacks uh with an AI mindset, but we have a moat called Infiniband and we will wire your entire server Network for you. We will sell you the cabling, We will sell you the switches, We will sell you the Gpus. We will sell you the stack that provides hope, a plan and then what do we see? Earnings after earnings after earnings Nvidia executes on the plan they suggested that builds confidence that what they're saying is not Fugazi AMD says hey, we don't have Infin Ban.

But you know what we don't need Infin Ban because we're going to work with Broadcom and Cisco and create the Ultimate Ethernet Consortium which is your direct competitor to Infiniband and we are going to be able to use our products in existing environments and new environments. Why saturate yourself or bog yourself down into sort of the ecosystem that is Infiniband when you could use ours which is faster and cheaper to deploy and it's just as good or better in their own argument. Whatever, you provide value on the metrics where you think you out compete, right and then that's on the end user to defi decide. So why is it then that Tesla Stock is down for the last three years? Essentially I Mean if you take today and go back three years, you're negative.

You've been on a downtrend for essentially the past 3 years. It's basically flat over the three years is the nice way to put it is: Is this just a bad stock? is? is it over? Is this company bad? Well, in my opinion, it has a lot and everything to do with allocation. Specifically, institutional allocation. Institutional allocation to Tesla is the lowest out of Magnificent Seven, and of those who do allocate, Tesla is the lowest within their positions.

It's very rare to have somebody have a large allocation to Tesla and it makes sense because those who do are actually making a contrarian bet. Why sell a fund That's Heavy in Tesla? If that's a hard sale to make, all you have to do today is go hey, look at Nvidia and Eli Lil These companies are killing it. Want to invest in my fund? Easy sale. The Stock's been up.

Confident Product confident Executive staff, Clear plan. Hope Communication Sky is the limit. What do we have with Tesla? Well, virtually the opposite. Consider this for a moment.

You have a who has been alleged by a judge who in my opinion unfairly but did essentially Rob Elon Musk of a $55 billion pay plan that was approved by over 80% of shareholders which was the majority of the non-majority shareholders that was wording from the lawsuit. Don't worry about that being confusing. The point is, a judge suggested that Elon Musk was distracted by other Ventures like SpaceX and Twitter and maybe this wasn't actually fairly disclosed to shareholders. You have a CEO who's accused of doing party drugs with with board members who contributed to a stock comp plan's creation.

You have a company that responds to press inqueries with a poop emoji. You have the stock performance that's not helping you and you have no guidance. In fact, you've just removed guidance. You lost your CFO Wait a minute.

Why did the C CFO Leave Nobody Knows Why the CFO left. People speculate. Well, speculation creates uncertainty. Uncertainty is scary.

Uncertainty means fear. Uncertainty means I don't know I don't have an answer I I I Want to be away from this I Don't feel happy here. You have a company that provides not only no guidance on sales now, which is odd because they always do. so you're actually going the opposite direction You're going from giving guidance to giving no guidance.

But there's no guidance on margin on vehicles, on vehicle road map, their ideas, there, speculation. But how is a fund manager supposed to sell a fund with an allocation to Tesla stock? When you have all of the when you basically have the company unsell itself see advertising isn't just for the car, it's selling sentiment. It's selling positive emotion. Consider: Coca-Cola It sells a brand it doesn't tell you.

Swipe up. Link down below. Buy Cocacola, It sells you a Feeling Good Feeling happiness. It's kind of like when I Talk about hey, do you want to become a millionaire? You want to go zero to millionaire in real estate I've got a course for that Meek Heaven.com What would it be like if you were Financial free? Imagine being financially free and how real estate could get you to that.

The point is, that's one way to sell emotion. Tesla's not really doing that. In fact, the emotion that Tesla has consistently advertised towards or I should say branded towards has been the 25 to 45y old guy. But that audience is already convinced.

How many moms? How many moms think about this? Realize that the safest vehicle they could put their child in when they take their kids to to school. Or dads who take their kids to school. Whatever. How many of those parents realize that the safest vehicle that child could be in is a Tesla When I take my family somewhere I think to myself: Lauren we need to take the Tesla and not the Sienna because it's safer.

We're going to not only have a co-pilot and FSD but the vehicle itself might perform better in a crash. What do you get when you bank at JP Morgan During a banking crisis, you get at least hope that JP Morgan's going to get bailed out by the Federal Reserve that your FSD is better that your safety is better, right? JP Morgan during a banking crisis is literally the mop. They go around and mop up other Banks J Powell calls JP Morgan yo can y'all buy First Republic and we'll back stop 85% of their assets. So if you lose money, commit to a certain percentage of loss.

we'll back stop the rest. Tax tax payers are backing it. but the point is that instills confidence in a JP Morgan So you don't have a bank run a JP Morgan So what do you have? a Tesla A confidence crisis. Everything that I've just described tells you why the stock has been down for the last 3 years.

This is a crisis of confidence. Notice that none of the reasons has anything to do with interest rates. Yes, interest rates matter, but you can provide confidence around interest rates. Let's compare.

Instead though. what we've gotten: Hey Look, it's AI day. we've got a dojo Supercomputer. It's going to be a huge opportunity.

So then what do you get? analysts like folks over in Morgan Stanley Okay, this bumps the stock. 40 bucks. There's real pop. You know there's real potential in Dojo Maybe it'll be like Amazon that sells merchandise for basically a break even.

But wow, all of a sudden they make a ton of money off of AWS Maybe they'll be an AWS like competitor. Okay, there's potential here. The smart engineers at Tesla give us hope that the company is going to generate a lot of profit in the future. So what do we get on with Elon Musk on the last earnings call? Yeah, uh, Dojo is a long shot, but it's a long shot worth taking.

but it's not very high probability. those were his words. Well, I can't quantify that as a fund manager I Can't quantify that I Look at go bro. something I Thought had hope you just took away.

You did the opposite. You didn't provide hope and guidance you provided UNH hope it's bad now. I'm kind of like All right I I mean I never underwrote Dojo myself. but in terms of actually providing Share value I Just underwrite Uh Tesla from an FSD and and vehicle point of view and an energy point of view.

Uh, but but other people do. Morgan Stanley's probably like just gave all this value to dojo and you just pooped on it. You took all my hope away. How do you sell it then? now you now the Morgan Stanley guy looks like a fool because Elon flipped.

Let's do another example. Hey um. so we're building, uh, a factory in Mexico Okay, hell yeah. All right.

average hourly wage over there is three bucks. 50. Even if we bump the wages 20% over there, our cost of manufacturing in Mexico are still going to be half of our cost of manufacturing in California It's close to the American Border we've got a free trade agreement with Mexico. We are going to pump margins with the Mexico Giga facility.

two earnings calls later. Yeah, so we're going to hold off on breaking ground in Mexico because there might be a session. Tesla has provided us nothing but UNH Hope that is not a diss on the people who work at Tesla It is not suggesting that it's time to sell Tesla In fact I think I think it's a gift that Tesla stock has been where it is. but this is a a gift that has a lot of thorns and right now everybody's been holding the Thorns they're like yeah, it's a nice Rose man but my hands are bleeding my financial future by being an investor in Tesla Looks less certain than if I had just invested in any other stock.

NASDAQ S&P 500 Nvidia It doesn't matter. pick almost any other stock Tesla's the worst performing stock in the S&P 500. You could have basically year to dat. You could have basically picked any of the other 499 companies and done better because you have UNH hope at Tesla Now don't get me wrong, there is a point of view of arguing.

Well I mean you know the real investors can see through all this and they can hold through this. You know Elon said don't be on margin so we going to hold strong and hold through it and eventually Tesla who knows might be a$1 thousand stock because it proves itself rather than like talking about how it's going to prove itself. But in the meantime you lost a lot of people and you probably made it harder on yourself because the harder it is to sell the stock that is encourage people to have owner ship in the company the harder it also is for people to pitch the car. see people pitch the vehicle when they're Tesla stock goes up in my opinion more than when their Tesla stock is in the toilet.

There's nothing but bad news about Tesla in fact then they recoil. they do the opposite. Think about that for a moment you have a Tesla you drive through uh or or you drive up to someone a friend that you know maybe uh maybe uh supports Biden and uh and you have to say yeah yeah I bought that before all the stuff happened with on you know it's it's a great car but I didn't invest in the company because of the CEO or the stock cuz both of those feel like they're downhill. Well what confidence is that Inspire the other person to buy the car think about when Tesla was was going up and there was clear guidance and there was a road map People like I've invested in the I bought the car the car is so amazing I bought the stock elon's a Visionary you should buy the car too.

advertising Tesla and providing a road mapap for Tesla is much more than just trying to appease fund managers. It's it's helping fund managers create hope and a guide for their clients and give their clients a vision and an aspiration of what the stock could be. It's having other vehicle owners proud of the vehicle that they invested in. They chose a Tesla because they invested in that brand.

People buy a Toyota because they want the reliability and nobody can really diss that. That is a great decision. You want one of the most reliable cars ever, You buy a Toyota There's no PR department telling us that all these recalls people hear about at Tesla are just software updates. And even if they are just software updates, why are there those problems in the first place? How does that compare to how many other recalls car makers have that you have to go to a shitty service center For the point is, there is a disconnect in communication and in Hope and guidance.

That's why Tesla has been suffering. Every part of the brand has been damaged by a lack of communication or by bad communication that does not make Elon a bad person that does not make the company a bad company that does not make Tesla stock a bad investment. but hopefully it wakes the executives at Tesla up a little bit to everything Kevin said is right and I'm not trying to Pat myself in the back. I'm just saying we need to change.

That's it. That's all you need. And here are five steps. I'm going to try to spoon feed it to make it simple.

Here are five things that Tesla can do right now with very, very little effort to finally provide hope to the company and to the brand again. Number One Step Number one: A Video PR Team A Video PR Team known as from the office of Elon Musk and it doesn't have to be Elon It simply has to be somebody who can present on camera, respond to allegations on behalf of Tesla and simplify the vision of Tesla In the face of criticism. a response is better than no response because at this point we've seen what no response or few or little responses have done. Little communication or poop emoji responses have led the mainstream media to go wild with speculation and opinions.

and it's unhealthy for the brand of the company. So a simple from the desk of Elon Musk from the desk of the executive of Tesla Whatever a video PR Team It's not that hard. It wouldn't cost a lot of money. Number Two: A Safety PR Team A team that says look, here's a Tesla that was involved in a vehicle because who knows the fault of another driver.

This that or whatever the injuries the individual sustained were XYZ Which had this been potentially a different vehicle, the injuries could have been a lot worse. Why were they better in the Tesla Well, here's why we have pre-tensioners in the seat belts. We have software updates that update the response time of uh of the automated breaking system from X milliseconds to Y milliseconds. Here's exactly what kind of change we've implemented.

Here are 20 different bullet points as to why the changes we're making in safety made. This person have less injuries than they could have had. You don't even have to bag on the competition, just talk about and explain what the company is doing to make sure that people survive crashes and are less injured because crashes are going to happen. Promote that.

This is what I talked at Uh Tesla's uh, investor Day about to. Elon Why don't we tell people about these things? Safety is one of the most important things and you've got a huge Competitive Edge Here, promote your wins. Number three: provide a clear pricing road map. People don't have confidence in the Tesla of a Uh in the price of a Tesla right now, so fix it.

See Nas for example, lowers its revenues but maintains margin. In fact, it's expanding margin. It's basically like, look, you know we're We're in a transition right now. we're just going to choose to manufacture less and we're going to maintain margins.

I'm not saying Tesla should do that. Nas uses contract manufacturing Tesla has his own manufacturing so you're better off manufacturing than not. Okay, even though Tesla's talking about layoffs today. But the point is, when there's no confidence in the road map for price, it's very difficult for people to make the commitment to invest in a Tesla and for investors to feel confident that we're going in the right direction.

In fact, the amount of people that were com that oh look, the Model Y price increased 1,000 bucks or whatever in Europe The amount of people commenting on the internet going o must be a demand thing bro. Tesla Shut down Giga Berlin for a week actually two weeks. Probably a supply constraint with no change in demand. but again, these are things that rather than having speculation about which it is, we have no communication from Teson.

It's okay to be wrong. but it's not not okay to be silent. And so when people buy a Tesla now they're like oh, price is going to go down 5K after I buy it So I'm going to lose the value as I drive off the lot then the price will go down so I'll lose even more value. There's no confidence in price because there's no pricing Road map.

How do you solve that? Well, you link the price of the car to interest rates. It's very simple. Every time the Federal Reserve lowers rates 25 basis points. we are going to raise the cost of a Tesla $1,000 as an example or $500 Okay, so rates come down.

Let's say uh. eight times, uh, or 2% We're going to raise the cost of the vehicle 8 times $500 Let's say that's $4,000 If interest rates go up another 25 basis points, we're cutting 500 bucks. Again, every 25 BP equals $500 It'd be a very simple road map because now you make it clear that what happens with vehicle demand is in part out of your control, but you will have you have a formulaic response to it. As interest rates come down, we can raise the price and that can go into margin.

As if interest rates go up more, the price is going to go down. It's very simple that would provide a road map and confidence. another example. And and I'm not saying all of these need to be done.

these are just ideas, right? I'm just spitballing ideas here, but lower the cost of FSD There's no confidence in the price of full self-driving Elon says the value will increase over time, but the market disagrees. The market values FSD at about $3,000 look at the used vehicle. Market Used Teslas with FSD sell for about $3,000 more than use Teslas without FSD lower the cost in line with the free market. When you lower the cost in line with the free market, you can actually provide confidence in pricing because you substantiate it.

If some. If you you go and want to buy a million dooll home, don't you want to know that other similar homes are also selling for $1 million? Or would you rather buy buy a $1.2 million home like a $112,000 FSD package that's actually in a $300,000 neighborhood? Oh well, maybe the free Market just doesn't know. Doesn't instill a lot of confidence. Number five provide a clear road map for margin expectations and what investor relations types and financial analyst should actually be expecting.

If you don't give us your guide on margin, then how's anybody supposed to make projections and it doesn't have to be perfect? You just have to give something. I You could go look, Look, hey, the reality is for us to get to our long-term Vision We're not going to be at 30% margin. We're expecting to settle out at 24% margin or 22% margin. I Don't really care what the reality is, but give an expectation because at least it suggests you've thought about it and you have a goal right now.

It just sort of feels goalless lack of confidence. Maybe you could even have a road to Tesla Event 2024, where you crystallize the product road map. You reiterate the $25,000 vehicle. Some of the specs of the vehicle is a twood door is a four-door What's the range of the battery going to be? Are you going to get into delivery and passenger vans? Even if that's just a long-term goal, What do you think the margin is going to be on an Optimus robot when it comes out? It provides a lot of value.

Maybe when it starts unloading boxes from a factory? Maybe that's worth 40? Grand on Amazon And maybe we can sell that thing at a 40% margin provides some hope some path. same thing for Dojo So look I Want to be clear I'm long-term optimistic on Tesla but a lot of the pain at Tesla could be avoided. Frankly with management because right now it's sort of like just let us do our things. Who cares about the stock market? but who cares about the stock market is very shortsighted because that means you don't really care about the people who are investing in your car, in your brand and you're in your stock.

And the reality is without people wanting to invest in your car brand or stock Tesla would be no. Tesla You could have the best product ever, but if nobody wants it, it doesn't matter. Sales is what's missing at the Tesla I Think this is one of the reasons you had so much success at Apple You put a was with the jobs sales Vision With the Innovation it's not one. it's both.

Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much People love you people. look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and you about meet Kevin Always wait to get your take.