Hey everyone me kevin here: well, it is the morning after and it is time to realize the damage that elon musk has caused and it's time to talk some updates regarding tesla, because there have been quite a few, so first things. First, we already know that this weekend, elon musk ran a twitter poll the day after his brother sold 108 million dollars worth of tesla stock and gave away 25 000 shares of tesla stock. The day after elon musk runs a twitter poll asking whether or not he should sell 10 percent of his tesla stock in an effort to pay taxes. Now nobody actually believes that elon musk really wants to pay taxes instead, in all likelihood, elon musk just realizes that he's going to have to sell tesla stock at some point over the next few weeks to couple months anyway or he'd have to take out a loan For billions of dollars, because he's got some big tesla options expiring very soon, these tesla options, once they vest, are expected to leave elon musk with a tax bill of somewhere between 10 to 15 billion dollars.

Again, he has two choices here. He could borrow money and keep his stocks or he could sell some of his stocks, pay capital gains on the stocks he sells, but then use the extra to pay his tax liability for all those new options that he just got. Those new shares that he just got via his options, so if none of that made sense, don't worry about it, basically elon musk, probably, and is likely to have a 10 to 15 billion tax bill coming up within the next few weeks. Just for reference, elon musk has options for 22.8 million shares which, at the pre-market price, is worth somewhere around 26 billion dollars.

That's a lot and you're gon na have to pay a lot of taxes, and this has led a lot of folks to speculate that hey. Maybe elon musk is planning on selling his shares anyway, but he doesn't want to come across as a paper-handed weenie baby, so he left it to the internet warriors and trolls on twitter, which twitter tends to lean left and ultimately got this result, which most people pretty Much assume that elon musk knew the answer here would be yes that yes, 57.9 of individuals support elon musk selling 10 percent of his tesla stock. He asked this question in the same sentence. Of course, as quote, much has been made lately of unrealized gains being a measure of tax avoidance or means of tax avoidance, so elon musk now committing as he says, i will abide by the results of the poll.

Whichever way it goes, elon musk now committing to sell 10 of his tesla stock, while at the same time also changing his twitter handle to lord edge, which is a way of suggesting that you're pushing controversial topics on the internet to the edge. So he has redefined himself as a lord edge, which i will show you a couple of other tweets in a moment here. Quick news update as well. Reuters just broke that a tesla has released the numbers for sales of chinese-made teslas in china in october.

The number is 54 391 chinese teslas were manufactured 40 666 of those for export, that's slightly less than the 56 thousand and six cars that we had in september. But it's way more than what we had in august, which i think august yeah here is august, was substantially lower. August came in at 44 264., so we went from 44 264 to 56 000. now, 54.

000. This is despite the fact that we are in one of the worst supply crisis ever and consider folks. Every time we get into the supply crisis, which intel says is expected to last until 2023 apple is delaying potential, iphone shipments or or forecasting uh weaker sales of iphones. Because of these shipped chip delays and you've got more manufacturers ordering, like pre-ordering, more and more stuff, making the supply chain constraints worse right, think about it.

If you're running a warehouse and you're already overflowing because you're having so many issues with supply, chain constraints and shipping delays, and now people are all of a sudden ordering 20 30 50 more than they used to. On top of you already being backed up because of shutdowns at ports, thanks to covet in china and other places, the fact that tesla is still crushing it like that just makes me a little blurry, but the big big big thing here is how much is tesla Down and what are some of the other crazy things going on at tesla? Is this a buy the dip opportunity? Well, let's take a look. Tesla first in the pre-market in the very first minute had some incredible volume. We had 29 000 shares of volume in the first minute, 26, 000 thereafter and another 22 000 thereafter.

So you definitely had some selling pressure. Tesla fell as low as about seven and a half percent. However, right now in pre-market, it's only down five percent. This is an indicator that folks are already buying the dip on the tesla dip, which is pretty incredible.

That folks are taking advantage of this, although this is exactly the playbook of what happened last time, elon said: stock too high and interestingly after elon musk said tesla too high or stock too high, essentially when it was around 740 750 stock or the share price fell To around 650, something like somewhere around there 730 to 650 - something like that. So many people bought the dip. The tesla ended up running to fifteen hundred dollars shortly thereafter and then elon musk announced, along with tesla's board that tesla would be doing a stock split five for one and those rumors and speculation are circulating again that we might be seeing another tesla stock split. Now.

Elon musk was asked about this and he did reply about two weeks ago when tesla was around 900 to a thousand dollars and elon musk said not yet in response to somebody asking if it was time for tesla to do a stock split to me. This is an indicator that elon musk is probably waiting for a similar sort of catalyst as last time, which is probably something like that psychological fifteen hundred dollar mark before doing a stock split again now, last time, tesla stock split five to one, it did extremely well. It's worth looking at nvidia that also did a stock split right here at about 190 post split and take a look at the stock's performance after that split. It's also worth noting that the stock split was announced over here shortly after earnings and the stock took off, leading up to the split did sell off a little bit right before and right after the split, but really just continued its run thereafter, and so a lot Of folks expect the same for tesla and it's possible that folks are looking at.

Yes, not only is this by the dip opportunity, but here's another consideration if elon musk has stocks that are vesting, he'd probably want them to vest at a lower price. So maybe if tesla stock falls today, elon musk could just execute his options at a lower price, now pay taxes on a lower difference, because the way that works is you pay difference between, let's say zero dollars or the 10 cents you're paying for your options or Whatever five dollars ten dollars, whatever you're paying and the current value of the stock, so the current value of the stock is lower elon would actually be paying less money in taxes. So some folks think that elon musk here is just being a total evil genius that he needed to sell stocks anyway to pay taxes. Why not let the twitter trolls feel like they had some say in it rather than elon coming across as a paper hander then pay, then knowing the stock will probably also fall by the way after that, then execute your options.

Uh after the stock falls, meaning you'll actually have to pay less taxes than if you waited until later kind of funny, because the more tesla stock runs, the more elon's tax liability actually goes up on those stock options, so kind of evil genius. Here it's also speculation. Pure speculation that maybe, after elon's 10 sale, he's gon na have money left over after he pays his taxes on his 10 and his options, and he might throw some of that money into bitcoin. We might see bitcoin coming back to a method of payment for tesla's who knows, but we do know that btc is doing very well lately uh.

It did shoot up quite a bit here 65.8. When i made a video first covering this on saturday. I mentioned that i was going to be buying bitcoin because of the speculation that potentially elon musk might uh put some money into bitcoin. I did mention this was totally speculation, but i did look for some other indicators and i found enough for me to suggest that i should put a million dollars into bitcoin on saturday and that's exactly what i did.

Saturday was the sixth, and i did that in about the afternoon. I believe the price i paid was about 61.8, so uh somewhere right around here. This sort of plateau over here, 60, not 62., so wherever 61 800 is obviously bitcoin has performed pretty well since then. So pretty happy for a two-day return so far of like eight or nine percent.

It's not bad, but ethereum bitcoin doing very, very well here, but take a look at some of the other things that are happening here with tesla's uh. Well, specifically, elon musk. So it's worth mentioning a few things here. One is that the next version of autopilot is coming out 10.4, and it's also worth noting that elon musk did reply to somebody asking hey.

When are we going to get the model s and x an update for autopilot? So that way, people like me could actually potentially have the chance of getting tesla autopilot, and so i have a little bit of insight on this first elon musk wrote coming soon in response to this for 2016-17, s's and x's, but i heard through the grapevine that It's very likely that we're going to have an upgrade package for the 2016 and 17 s's and x's. It's going to be a hardware, upgrade cameras and interior cabin camera. Unfortunately, i really didn't want an interior cabin camera. I kind of like that.

I didn't have it, but it's expected to cost somewhere around a thousand dollars and i don't believe that's going to be included in the original ten thousand dollars, but thousand dollars is still cheaper than replacing like buying a new car right, so uh. That would be a way to get those older vehicles full self-driving, which is something that i'm excited for a few other things that were kind of bizarre here about elon musk on twitter was definitely one who he may have deleted it uh. Where was he replied to ron wyden and uh? It looks to me like he deleted it. I did reply to it, so let me see if i could find it because, oh no, no, no, it is um.

Oh wait. Did he delete it? Uh? Oh yep nope. It is still here it is definitely worth looking at look at this, so ron wyden, who is a senator, says whether or not the world's wealthiest man pays. Any taxes at all shouldn't depend on the results of a twitter poll.

It's time for the billionaire income tax, which take a good look here at ron, wyden's profile picture, because that becomes very, very important here. Elon musk replies. Why does your profile picture? Look like you just came. It's also worth noting that elon musk did not write profile picture.

He wrote. Why does your pp look like you just came. You literally can't make this stuff up to which, of course, i replied. Omfg tesla is 44 of my portfolio, and now i want to buy more, i'm not sure who's more broken me or elon musk uh yeah.

So anyway, these give you a little updates kind of on some things going on here on tesla uh. I do want to talk valuation here as well in the video. Let's just take one more look here at the chart: wow we're almost at 66k again uh. Well, actually, we just fell under 66 uh for btc, but let's go back to tesla here, so yep still down about 5.14 sitting at about 11.60.

This also makes me very grateful that i did sell a lot of my uh. The call options that i have. I only have two left uh and i had like 12.. So i'm really grateful for that uh.

But anyway, let's uh, let's go ahead and jump on over. It's just worth going back to some of the evaluation numbers here. So this is my 2005 or 25 spreadsheet. For tesla and what's crazy, is my reasonable target for 2025, and i think it's very.

Very conservative is two thousand dollars at 11.65 you're, really only looking at about an 11.28 compounded annual return over five years, which don't get me wrong. 11.28 is expected to far exceed the s. P 500's return over the next five years, and this, in my opinion, is conservative. However, of course, this could be entirely wrong if something happened to elon musk and let's say he disappeared for 11 days or something weird kind of like the governor of california, which imagine that imagine becoming the governor of california and then disappearing for 11 days without making Any public appearance, also right after you got your coveted booster shot, which kind of kind of sucks i'm all for people getting booster shots, but a little sus, but anyway gavin newsom's missing what happened to gavin newsom um, maybe he's a tesla short seller and something happened.

But anyway, yeah so uh by the end of 2025. I really think about two thousand dollars is reasonable and the rate of return is not as ideal. Of course, i could manipulate this uh to the upside. There are a few things that i could do.

For example, if i modified this to what some other institutional investors are doing, they're going with a 50 p e ratio, but they're actually going with about a 48 to 50 000 uh estimate on the vehicle cost. However, that that hurts you a little bit right. That brings you to only about twelve hundred dollars going forward, and that is with a thirty percent margin as well. So you'd really have to be a little bit more manipulative here.

I personally think that uh tesla's, still gon na be at an insane level of growth and we're still gon na be pricing that growth in like crazy. Remember how p e ratios work, because it's so easy to look at p e and just like. Oh, my gosh, 100 p e, it's so high there's a reason. Tesla has like a 600 p e today.

It's because the market is pricing in so much future growth, and so my expectation is that tesla's going to kind of grow, go on this exponential s curve and as it ramps and we get from 2 to 3 to 4 million. We're going to cars produced we're going to go from a price to earnings, multiple of something like uh 600, maybe where we are now to 200 to 150 to 125 to 100. I think 100 is probably a 20 24 25 result and then we'll slowly go down from there. I think 250 for a pe forward.

Pe is probably more like a 2027 and then we'll probably settle like at an apple level like a 30 pe, probably closer to 20 30.. So look while i do think tesla has some really good potential for some great returns ahead. I do think it's a little bit stretchy at this price me personally, i think i'd probably rather be at under a thousand dollars, because if i'm at under a thousand dollars, that's going to get me a little bit closer to that target of a 15 rate of Return annually for the next five years, so if i can get a nice sell-off like a really nice sell-off and get tesla under a thousand, that's gon na be good. For me, i'd be really happy for that.

That would be where i'm gon na be buying the dip, but otherwise, for now, i'm probably just going to uh, wait and see what happens here with tesla. Is this going to be the beginning of a downtrend for tesla, or is this just going to be a continued like a brief little hiccup uh road speed, bump and a continuation? I am about 600k in margin right now, so i'm not like super enthused to be adding shares, so it's not too big of a deal but anyway folks. Thank you so very much for watching. I really appreciate you.

Hopefully this was insightful if it was consider, subscribing and we'll see in the next video thanks again goodbye you.