Hey guys it's sasha today we really have to talk about tesla, because the next few months may well be very, very rough for anyone who holds a position in tesla and just before you go and do your worst in the comment section to fearlessly defend, tesla tesla Is the biggest single position in my portfolio, but unfortunately i do not subscribe to the accepted culture on youtube of creating an echo chamber where you're only allowed to say positive things about a stock that you happen to be invested in, because that is not. Unfortunately, how real life works and if you invest in stocks and then put the blinkers on and the company that you have put your money in - can do no wrong everything negative is fun. Then you have a problem. I would strongly recommend you to be very aware of the downsize risks and any headwinds in every stock that you are invested in, whether it's tesla or anything else.

So what is the deal with tesla? Well, tesla is trading at just above 700. As of the end of trading yesterday and is down 43 from its peak at the beginning of november, and the whole market is down so that is definitely very much part of it. But tesla is now a very large profitable company, with growing revenues and growing profit margins and granted they only broke even relatively recently within the last two three years, but when you go and compare them to some of the other biggest companies in the us, google is Down 26 apple is down 25. Microsoft is down, 26 percent, tesla has taken a reasonably chunky hit in relative terms, and the problem is that the next two months it could get a heck of a lot worse.

Now i don't know what the macro economic situation will. Look like maybe the markets will keep selling off, in which case tesla will get battered along with everything else. Maybe the markets will recover and pull tesla up as well, but putting the exogenous factors aside, tesla by itself, has some of the biggest headwinds that i have seen them have in recent history, and this could absolutely tank the share price in the next few weeks. This is quite important.

First, we have the whole elongate problem as elon musk has eloquently called it, and i am not just talking about the spurious news that some publications came out with yesterday i'll cover that in a second it goes a whole lot deeper. Whether you'd, like it or not, public perception of tesla as a company is very closely intrinsically linked to the public perception of elon musk. The company may be breaking records, every quarter, doing phenomenal things, but elon musk can go and say something on twitter and the stock. Will tank 10 and if you take a step back and just watch what's happening from a you know, distant perspective, elon musk has decided to start a more active war against a whole load of different people at exactly the same time in the last few months.

This has only been accelerating. Elon has had a sniper bernie sanders, who insinuated that elon musk doesn't pay his fair share of tax. He called elizabeth warren's senator karen, also in response to her questioning whether he pays enough tax elon even called out joe biden by calling him a dump puppet in human form. After the u.s president said that gm is leading the way in electric car, manufacturing and hey his points are valid because there is clear point scoring going on and corruption when politicians fail to acknowledge for no reason whatsoever, a company that is absolutely dwarfing.

Anyone else's efforts on the euv front and the point on tax is also ridiculous, because elon musk just happens to have paid the largest ever amount of tax last year and for some reason, the same completely dumb politicians who don't understand the most basic things about the Things that they themselves pass, laws on and regulate somehow are not talking about this wealth tax. At the moment, when tesla and all the other stocks have lost 43 in value because they are very slowly beginning to learn that unrealized capital gains are unrealized well in the process of calling a spade a spade. Elon musk has unfortunately, built up a lot of enemies and is continuing to build up even more, and the issue is that some of these enemies have a fair amount of power and influence. You know senators, governors, the sec and the president of the united states and now we're just beginning to see some of the outcomes flow through tesla.

Just got kicked out of the s p esg index for pretty much no reason whatsoever. The sec is investigating elon musk for his late twitter share, purchase disclosures and a bunch of other stuff. We have an acceleration of hit pieces like the one that dropped yesterday with allegations that he asked for extras during a massage on his private jet six years ago and exposed himself to a stewardess while offering to buy her a horse. Now apparently, spacex paid her 250 000 to keep quiet about it, and this hit piece is based on a six-year-old recollection of an anonymous friend of the anonymous flight attendant.

Now, i obviously don't know if this story is true or not, but the evidence presented does seem to be somewhat on the loose side and the timing does seem incredibly coincidental and just for a bit of context, but a bit of color on the story. Just so. You know the founder and ceo of insider. The publication that published this hit piece on elon musk is strongly against elon's twitter acquisition and back in 2003, this guy, the ceo of insider, was permanently banned from working in securities by the sec because he issued fraudulent research.

While working at merrill lynch, i am quoting this according to the sec, blodget's conduct constituted violations of the federal securities laws and nasdaq and new york stock exchange rules which require that, among other things, published research reports have a reasonable basis present a fair picture of the Investment risks and benefits, and do not make exaggerated and unwarranted claims a very interesting backdrop to what was published yesterday right well anyway. The likelihood is that we are going to see elon musk and his companies attacked a whole lot more in the coming months because of what's been happening. I don't know exactly how i don't know exactly when but expect the media to ramp up various hit pieces. The government to introduce new policies, new laws that somehow benefit gm ford and other companies, but do not in any way benefit or include tesla, expect tesla to hit some kind of trouble with permits or taxes or something else.

Elon himself has said. Political attacks on me. Will escalate dramatically in the coming months, but then it only gets worse for tesla, because in about two months at the end of july, we will get tesla's q2 results. I warned about this two months ago and i got an absolute bucket load of hate from tesla fanboys.

I'm sorry, but that's exactly what you are. If you don't take these kind of news seriously here, we are at the end of may and guess what the issues i raised in, that video are hitting really hard. Giga shanghai was closed from late march to april 19th and since then, tesla has only been working on a single closed loop shift where the workers have to live and cannot leave the factory. The first batteries of cars reportedly started shipping from shanghai on may 11th and it is roughly a 30-day trip to most parts of europe because of the shutdowns gigashanghai only made 10 757 cars in april and sold 1512 of them in china.

Presumably, the rest are on their way to europe and other parts of the world, and this is a massive drop. Shanghai was running at 60 to 70 000 cars a month before the lockdown started, as i'm recording this video gengar shanghai seems to be operating only one shift still, and even if everything was running smoothly, production would still probably only be at around 40 percent at best, But then we also have additional reports of supply chain shortages which are causing some slowdowns and delays, because some of the tesla suppliers based in china are also suffering from lockdowns. Just like tesla are so realistically we're, probably looking at maybe 25 to 30 000 cars coming out shanghai factory in may at best, if there aren't any other issues, and even if production resumes on the 1st of june at full pace at full capacity, shanghai will only Produce 100 to 105 000 cars in q2 and a whole bunch of those cars will not be delivered within the quarter. This is critical because people look at these delivery numbers because they simply won't reach their customers in europe and other parts of the world.

Before the end of june, tesla's factory in fremont is apparently working at a record pace running at 10 to 20 percent above their maximum capacity of 600 000 cars per year. So that's great news, and but even if that's the case, fremont production in q2 will maybe hit 170 000 cars if everything works perfectly so between the two factories that will only have 270 000 roughly cars at best compared to 310 000 cars in q1, a 40 000 car drop according to reports. Gigabilin is only making about 86 cars per day and will only start ramping significantly sometime in july, which is after the end of q2, and there is very little in the way of updates from austin. There are rumors that there are issues with scaling production in the 4680s or at least it's taking longer than some people expected.

So the likelihood is we're probably going to end q2 in the best case scenario, with 285 to 290, 000 cars or lower. If some other unexpected issues show up, operating costs are going to be. Higher. Margins are going to be lower because of the shutdowns because of the rapid hiring of new employees in berlin and austin.

The cost per car is going to increase the bottom line. Numbers are probably also going to take a hit and because the stock market doesn't seem to care for what the drivers are, what the long term picture, i'm guessing we're going to have a never-ending stream on cnbc talking about tesla's, busted, grey story and a flurry of Wall street analysts tripping over each other to drop their target prices, and this could spell pretty bad news for tesla's share price, because that could intensify the sell-off, that's already happening and then go and add in the never-ending twitter saga. On top of all this, that seems to be going from bad to worse. Elon musk seems to want to renegotiate the price down.

The value of his tesla stock has already dropped sharply and may continue dropping because of the factors i just talked about. This might put additional pressure on him to try and lower the price or bring in more funding partners, and there are a whole host of issues here. There is already a perception out there that elon musk has taken his eye off the ball with tesla, which, if the numbers for tesla come in a lot lower than what they were last quarter or not lower than what people are expecting. People will join those two together and we are not gon na see very pretty headlines in the newspapers, elon musk just tweeted - to reassure people that this is not the case that he is working on tesla 24.

7. But you can see how it looks and why he even had to tweet that in the first place, then there's this fear that he will have to sell more shares to fund the purchase, because the value of his collateral is dropping and people will raise questions about His commitment to tesla, if that was to happen and when all of these things overlap on top of each other in june and july, there are going to be some major major headwinds for tesla and tesla's share price. We are not expecting any major news to be coming out at any point soon. Maybe they'll start the production of the second factory in shanghai, maybe the expansion in texas, but nothing that will have any meaningful, short-term impact and there is a very significant chance that, as a result of all of this, the share price is going to take a big Hit the good news if you're a tesla investor, is that all of the headwinds that i just talked about are just short-term blips.

They affect q2, they might have some impact within q3, but they really have no direct impact on the long term picture unless the enemies that elon is making really do decide to start a war. But together with the overall stock market situation and all the inflation pressure, it could mean that there may be a phenomenal window of discount tesla shopping opportunity and i am going to do my best to go and hoover up the shares that wall street is selling. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.