Hey guys, it's sasha, the next eight weeks might be one of the most interesting periods ever in the history of tesla, and there are 10 critical dates that i think are going to be crucial for tesla investors. And one of these is breaking news because it looks like giga austin is about to launch, with the final components now being granted. I haven't heard of this talk about this, so here are some breaking news. I'm going to get to all the details in just a second now.

There has never been a time when this many stars were aligned for tesla and as a shareholder. That makes me very excited in this video i'm going to break down those 10 critical dates and explain the massive significance of each of them, but i also wanted to highlight an important point. I am a long-term investor and i make my decisions based on long-term optics. I do not trade and i do not try to catch swings, but sometimes i see a situation where a stock has a that.

I have a long-term interest in has a very short period, where a number of really major catalysts overlap, and it is often the case that during this sort of period, that stock may well do particularly well, it's not guaranteed by any means. But i expect stocks to pick up a chunk of their potential upside during these kind of structures, which is why i'm talking about it. I made a video like this about lucid motors on the 25th of october, when the stock price was about 24 and the prices. I'm recording this video is 52..

I made three videos about tesla with the same message pretty much from the 9th of september until the 18th of october, when the share price was between 754 dollars and 870. The share price at the moment is 1100, but it went to over 1200 just two weeks after that. Last video and those are the only two calls like this - that i have made in the last year. So everything else i talk about focuses on the long term, but here we are in the next eight weeks for tesla seem incredible.

So let's talk about these 10 critical dates to look out for first up before we get into the big dates it looks like giga. Austin has got its final approval through on the 19th of november tesla filed for four new permits with the texas department of licensing and regulation that will allow them to assemble cars in the austin plant and up until it checks. Just now. Those had all the status of project registered, which meant they were filed, but it looks like all four have now been approved.

The status has just changed to review complete for all four, and that is the last status on the old permits that were granted. That is available, so there isn't one that should be coming after that now. I have no idea whether there may be any other permits due on top of these or if there is any other mandatory delay on top of when these are granted, the permits all have a completion date within the application of the 31st of december. So i don't know if the permanent is only applicable from that date onwards be despite whether it was granted or not.

I don't know, but given that this was supposed to be the very last hurdle, it appears that giga austin is pretty much ready to go. So we might be seeing production cranking up just before christmas. Elon musk said that it will take at least two weeks after permits are granted to get going, or maybe they have to wait until that completion date and start at the beginning of january. Hopefully we'll hear some news on this soon, but here are the other key dates that you need to look out for there's every chance that elon is going to make up some new ones, but let's talk about the ones that we know so far.

First up we have the update on china production numbers. Every month the chinese authorities publish data on the sales of cars made in china, and so we get a monthly update on how well the tesla shanghai production process is going very helpfully. That data also shows how many of those cars were exported and how many were sold locally in china. Now at the beginning of each quarter, tesla shanghai tends to export pretty much all of the cars they make and they then sell those other remaining cars locally.

At the end of the quarter, october numbers were amazing: tesla shanghai sold 54 391 cars with over 40 000 of them being exported because remember october, is the first month of the quarter november. Numbers are going to be very important to understand if tesla can hit that 900 000 gold for the whole of 2020, especially as shanghai, is now producing more cars than fremont. So it's the biggest factory elon musk did send that email to employees just a few days ago saying that tesla will no longer waste money trying to chase quarterly targets. So that might mean that the timing of cars being exported from shanghai to other parts of the world might change in the next few months.

And if we see a substantial drop in exports from shanghai to europe in november. That will probably suggest also that the berlin factory is much closer to starting making cars than we might think. So perhaps they don't even need to send more bows halfway across the world from china to europe and that november data might be an indicator. This data normally comes out on a monday tuesday, about a week into the month, so we might be seeing it come out somewhere in the 6th to 7th of december.

The next big date is the 12th nine, so 9th of december 12, 9.. We've seen that this date, all over twitter is all over social media. Elon musk has been hinting about it there's just like endless rumors floating about. What's going to happen on that date, most people seem to be predicting a stock split, so we'll have to see if that is indeed what's going to be happening.

Last time around tesla did a stock split uh when their share price began climbing well over a thousand dollars as well. So it's likely, i guess most people are guessing that it's going to be another five to one split like they did last in august 2020. But who knows? Maybe you were even gon na see a ten to one split given how little time has pans passed since they did the last one. Maybe they don't want to be doing these every year now.

Stock splits won't have any impact at all on the fundamentals of the business. It doesn't affect anything really and most retail investors. These days have access to fractional shares, so it doesn't really help them either, but it is an important indicator. The tesla themselves expect the share price to go up from here, and it also helps those options.

Traders and tesla options are incredibly popular on the market. Now, if 1209 is not the stock split, then it is still very likely. There will be a stock split at some point in the next eight weeks if the share price continues going up considerably, based on what tesla has done before, and so, let's move on to the next date, and that is the opening of the giga austin factory that We just talked about the paperwork, as we saw seems to be complete. Maybe maybe 12 9 will have a whole host of different announcements.

Maybe giga austin will be just one of those announcements who knows, but then, some time ago, elon confirmed on twitter. That will probably take around two weeks from when the permits are granted to get the factory operating and there's a chance that we will see the start at some point from the 13th to the 17th december, based on those data base that we've just seen. Those permits apparently being issued that will align with other tesla announcements, saying production may start this year, but not deliveries, because if they do start somewhere around, maybe 16th or 17th of december, that's only going to be two weeks from the end of the year, including the Christmas break, so it's pretty unlikely that any cars made in that week will make their way to actual customers before the new year and in the very same week we may be seeing berlin open his doors as well. There were a few leaks coming out over the weekend that the german authorities might have finally dismissed the last set of objections that were prohibiting them from issuing the permits and, as a result, they might be about to issue the final operating permit.

Literally any moment now, and if we use the same two-week estimate as we just talked about for austin, then it is entirely possible that berlin is also going to come online at pretty much exactly the same time in the same week somewhere just before we get to Christmas based on all of these news, it sounds very possible that we might hear those announcements all happen on the 9th of december, but wait there are six more important dates on top of these tesla has just got the approval to expand their shanghai factory. Remember they have that one as well to increase capacity, which is incredible because they already are running at a rate of somewhere in the region of 750. Maybe all the way up to 800 000 cars a year and tesla has said that this will start in december. The work on the expansion will start in december and, most importantly, the work is due to be completed in april 2022.

That is ridiculous, because it's only four months away and if they really do want it completed in april, i am guessing that they'll be breaking ground on the expansion literally pretty much any day now in december, and we'll all be seeing videos showing the diggers at work. When that starts now, the next important date is also the 31st of december, but this one might be more of a guesstimate. So far, elon has only sold just over half of the shares he announced he would sell in his twitter poll, as i'm recording this video and based on what he had to say afterwards, it sounds like sticking. Two fingers to the establishment is very much part of the reason why he's doing it and if he really does want to stick it to the establishment to the max completing the sale before the end of the year.

So that all the proceeds and all of the tax that he is maximizing, if all of those fall into the 2021 year, definitely makes a huge amount of sense and makes it more likely. So far, we've seen a very busy first week of selling. After that, whole news came out, but then it's been sort of a bit of a break, so we don't know when elon might get going heavily on selling again. But i expect that whenever it is, he will probably be done with all that selling by the end of the year, so that whole episode will hopefully be done and dusted before we get to 2022..

The next one is really exciting and has very much flown below the radar, but i think this is one of the most important dates coming up a few weeks ago, the pepsi ceo, let it slip in the live interview that they are taking delivery of the first Tesla semi-truck before the end of q4 this year. So before the end of december, which is incredible and at around the same time we saw some other news, some videos showing a semi-truck driving around outside the giga nevada, tesla factory, and a few days later. After that, we saw that same or maybe a different gigasemi uh semi-truck um, trying out the mega charger that they have installed over there. This is basically just a giant supercharger that can charge a whole semi-truck with a much larger battery so check out.

What i have dug up. The stanislaus county in california has issued pepsi a permit for a mega charger facility at their premises. The final inspection date says the 22nd of november 2021 and that bit still says tbd, but the record stays at the top has just been updated to say issued. So pepsi has had their mega charger at their facility.

That only exists the power and semi approved and that, in my opinion, makes it pretty likely the first tesla semi is going to be delivered at some point pretty soon, possibly in december. Otherwise, why would you bother installing a mega charger at your pepsi facility and then spend seven months getting a permit? I haven't seen many people cover this, but if the first semi trucks begin being produced and sold, even if the numbers are just initial trial runs in very limited quantities. I think this is going to be huge news for tesla shareholders. This is a whole different game.

On top of the incredibly successful tesla retail customer business all right next up just after the new year, we will have the official q4 production numbers released by tesla. These usually come out on the second of the month, even when that happens over the weekend or when there's public holidays, but because we have the new year and the weekend, it could potentially come out a day or two late, and this will be a huge announcement. Early on this year, i modeled an annual output for tesla of 909 and a half a thousand cars for 2021, and a lot of people said i was bonkers. This was way too optimistic, and a lot of people told me that i am way out to put it politely, but the first three quarters have so far produced about 624 and a half thousand cars, so tesla will need to make another 285 000 cars in q4 To match my model and if fremont continues making cars at roughly the rate of 500 000 cars per year that they're currently operating at and if shanghai just continues at the same pace as they did in october, without increasing it even further, although they usually do increase Every quarter then tesla should be on for about 290 000 cars in q4, and that will be the first official bit of data coming out in 2022., now q3 had a total production run of 237 823 cars.

So if tesla did hit 290 000 cars, that would be a 22 increase quarter and quarter that is way way bigger than any recent quarterly increase. So if that did happen, i think the stock market would get very excited about what numbers will look like when the austin and berlin factories open up and what 2022 is going to look like, then, a few days later, around the 10th to 11th of january. We get to find out what the china production numbers for december were again, and this will be more important than it seems. I know we just got the whole quarterly date a few days before from tesla themselves, but this has a different angle.

If berlin and austin start production right at the end of december or some point in january, two things will happen. Giga shanghai will be able to sell a lot more cars in china and other asian or maybe australasian countries with greater margins, because they don't need to. You know ship them halfway around the world and the sales timetable will also change. Chinese buyers will not have to wait until the last month of the quarter anymore to get their hands on a tesla.

So if the production rate in china in december looks strong, that is going to be a huge catalyst for tesla on top of what's happening elsewhere. Remember that the shanghai factory is also increasing its size in april, right because of the expansion. So imagine if we're seeing data that the factory is approaching an annual run rate of that 800 000 cars, which is very very feasible before that expansion opens in the month of december, and then remember that shanghai is also much smaller than both the berlin and the Austin sites that could be really really exciting and then the final event in this eight-week window is the date of the q4 results. Now tesla has moved their headquarters to austin and as part of that, they seem to have moved back to doing their quarterly results.

On a wednesday, they temporarily move them to a monday, so i'm expecting the results possibly to be on the 27th of january, although they could come out a week early in the 20th if tesla particularly keen, in any case it doesn't really matter, and if the production In q4 continues along its current trajectory and if even a fraction of what i just talked about, happens during these next eight weeks, those could be some incredible incredible results. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching. I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.