Hey guys, it's Sasha Yesterday Tesla published their Q4 production and delivery numbers and once again Tesla investors have absolutely lost it because Tesla missed on their delivery Target hitting only 405 000 cars which of course is a complete disaster because it is only up 17.9 from the previous quarter which was the record before this quarter which is only equivalent to an annual growth rate of 93. Oh my goodness, sell the stock now and the share price has tanked seven percent of Market open as I'm recording this video now Tesla did screw up pretty bad, just not in these delivery numbers. and I am going to tell you exactly what they screwed up, how they screwed it up and give you an update on what the actual F is happening with Tesla stock and I wanted to apologize just before we get started because this is going to really hurt for all the Tesla Fanboys I am so sorry for saying things how they are without wearing roast into the spectacles. Please feel free to leave all your hate comments below.

Just watch the video first. I Also want to apologize to the Tesla bears and Tesla Q Community because this video is actually going to be based on facts, data, and numbers so it might hurt a little trying to use that muscle between your ears I know I'm sorry. So in short, I think I'm going to rub both sides up the wrong way. but there we go.

So yesterday, Tesla published their production delivery numbers for Q4 and on the production side, they did reasonably well all things considered, making 439 701 cars in total. There are two obvious problems with this report, though the first problem is that delivery numbers were only 405 278. so 34.5 000 cars that were manufactured were not delivered and Tesla's explanation is we continue to transition towards a more even Regional mix of vehicle builds, which again led to a further increase in cars and Transit at the end of the quarter, which sort of sounds plausible Tesla even alluded to it on the earnings call last time around. This means that again, you should expect a gap between production and deliveries in Q4 and those cars in transit will be delivered shortly to their customers upon arrival to their destination in Q1, but on the same earnings call Tesla also said this as we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50 to annual growth in production this year.

although we are tracking supply chain risks which are beyond our control. On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50 percent growth due to an increase in the Carson Transit at the end of the year. as noted just above and Elon Musk said that Q4 is going to be epic as our factors ran, we're looking forward to a record-breaking Q4 So it really, you know, knock on wood. it looks looks like we'll have an epic uh, end of year.

So Q4 is looking extremely good and going back to the numbers. Tesla's deliveries in Q4 grew 40 year on year at 1.31 million which is 90.4 000 Cars short off that 50 Mark Now the problem I think that Tesla has is not with manufacturing growing 40 a year when all other Bitcoin manufacturers are struggling and Contracting is a very strong level of performance they've had Factory shutdowns. we've had the whole cover situation in China there's been a lot of headwinds growing at all is very good when everyone else is sinking. but Tesla do have a major problem with communication and when Tesla was a small company, nobody really cared too much about this.

People said hey, they're Mavericks they can do things however which way they like But now this approach of giving no and having no PR department not caring at all is beginning to actually hurt the company. beginning to actually heard the brand on October 19th Tesla guided for just shy of 50 growth on deliveries and then missed that Mark by 90 000 cars. We all know the issues last year in Q4 in China but the pointless bravado on the earnings score May Well go and lead to things like an SEC investigation. It may lead to fines.

it may lead to Elon Musk getting a personal hit of some sort, maybe not being able to hold a board position. These things are very possible because of the way it now looks. It looks like they said all of the stuff in late October Then Elon went and sold a whole bunch of stock twice in November and in December which then the share price tumbling twice afterwards and then a few weeks afterwards. It turns out that the delivery numbers were never on track for the 50, but I am not sure why they needed to make that point in the first place because growing 18 quarter on quarter is amazing, especially in the current environment and 40 year on year is phenomenal.

In the same year where Volkswagen was 9.2 percent down up to the end of November on the latest available data and Honda just posted, their production numbers are classed by 20 percent for the full year in 2022. On that sort of a backdrop, a 31 year on year growth on deliveries is a very strong result despite all the headwinds like the shutdowns in China in the summer and I said in my Discord yesterday, why not put a sentence at the top of these delivery numbers that they published That says something like we are building inventory in key markets around the world to streamline the purchasing process which has led to fewer deliveries within the quarter or maybe extreme weather and uncertainty related to EV tax credits led to significant delays and Order cancellations at the end of the quarter and this explains why deliveries were lower than expected, the lack of any explanation at all, the lack of any Clarity or any meaningful communication is not really helping Tesla stock and it may well begin not helping Tesla the company if they keep playing these stupid games. The second problem in the published numbers is that Tesla didn't print any data at all about the semi. After making a huge song and dance about making the first production run delivering the first trucks to Pepsi they said these words.

This report does not show any production or deliveries for the Semi at all. They made a whole event to celebrate those deliveries. But where are the numbers? Sure, the numbers are going to be tiny, maybe 30 or trucks, maybe even less I Don't know, but not showing the number at all is a whole lot worse than showing the small number that it is. because it begs the obvious question.

Why is it that you wouldn't include this number in the report now that you've started selling the trucks? Is it because this is not an actual production run despite all that comes a few weeks ago. Are there some sort of test mules instead of actual production cars that are being worked on in partnership with Pepsi? Again, we have a major communication problem where Tesla didn't mention anything to explain why the semi was not included. They didn't say why they bragged about it a few weeks ago, but are kind of pretending it never happened now and we have to wait until the Q4 four results in three weeks time to find out what actually went down. Make sure you join me for live coverage, it should be a very good one.

Now before these numbers came out, the IRS also released an update on which cars qualify for the maximum EV credit and the Model Y did not get the full seven and a half thousand tax credit. The issue here is price because regular cars have to cost under 55 000 in order to qualify for the credit, but SUVs can cost up to eighty thousand dollars. So the big question is which cars can qualify as an SUV because when your Model Y cost at least 65 990 before any extras, you really needed to classify as an SUV to qualify for that tax credit. And the Model Y was not classified as an SUV unless you go for the seven seat configuration.

According to these new IRS guidelines, And of course, immediately everyone said there is a conspiracy Joe Biden is personally sticking it to Elon Musk blah blah blah. Pants on fire. The big question is, how did they Define What is an SUV They didn't use the Netzer definition or the APA definition because both of those list all Model Y variants as SUVs regardless of the seating arrangement and some people suggested that perhaps the definition comes from the legal definition of what a non-passenger automobile is, because you can see that the 80 000 price applies to Vans SUVs and pickup trucks, so the intense does kind of sound right. But to qualify as a non-passenger automobile, you have to qualify under either part A or Part B of this legal definition.

To qualify for part A, the vehicle has to transport more than 10 people, all be one that you can live in, or have a flatbed, or be primarily a cargo carrying vehicle, so the Model Y doesn't fit any of these. However, the car does qualify if it is equipped with at least three rows of designated seating positions as standard equipment, so any car with three rows of seats does qualify according to this. To qualify in the part B, you have to satisfy one of the criteria in number one and at least four criteria from number two. Number one is easy because the Model Y car sold in Yes, all have all-wheel drive.

So then you go and have to take four of these things down here. and the Model Y approach angle is 11.1 degrees, so the first one is a no, the Model Y departure angle is 9.8 degrees, so the third one is a no, and model wise ground clearance is 17 centimeters which means it's too low. So any Model Y without the 7c configuration does not qualify using this description, and that kind of makes it sound like maybe this is the rule that they used, but the Volkswagen Id4 Pro All-wheel Drive does qualify as an SUV for the tax credit, but it only has five seats and it doesn't take four of these criteria at the bottom either. I Checked and look.

The Ford Mustang Machi also failed to get the SUV classification, so I guess the IRS did have to come up with some kind of rule. It wasn't just we hate Tesla and we like everybody else with unions so that you know, perhaps they don't get sued in the future for making up as they go. So maybe some people guessed. maybe it's based on weight.

but the All-wheel Drive Tesla Model y comes in at 4416 pounds in curb weight. The All-wheel Drive Mac E that also does not qualify comes in at 4498 pounds or 4838 pounds for the extended range. Both don't qualify, but the Id4 Pro All-wheel Drive comes in at 4788 pounds more than the Model Y, but less than that extended range Marquis And it does qualify as an SUV. So it does kind of sound when you look at it that the RS did pull out the SUV definition out of their ass unless there is some miraculous one that I haven't looked at because I tried I looked at absolutely everything and I cannot see at all how you can specifically determine which of the cars are and which are not SUVs using any reasonable criteria.

However, remember that before this year, Tesla didn't have any credit applied at all for people buying new cars because they already already exceeded the total sales cap ages ago. While most other manufacturers were still eligible so Tesla had a 40 growth in sales last year despite not having the credit and this year, some of their models will qualify for the full credit and some qualify for the partial credit, so this will still be a net positive effect on demand for Tesla this year relative to other options for anyone buying a new. EV Also, the seven seat option cost three thousand dollars in the configuration. so I have a funny feeling a lot of people might suddenly quite like to buy the extra two seats for three thousand dollars to get seven and a half thousand dollars off their tax bill.

A few decades ago when Lamborghini first launched the Countach the huge rear wing on a car was not technically legal, so everyone bought the car without the wing and then got a free aftermarket upgrade from the factory where the wing was installed by hand in the car park outside. Dodge Launched their Challenger SRT Demon in this street legal guys a few years ago and you could go and then buy a crate of all the good stuff that makes the car. Stupid Fast for just one dollar as a bonus. So who knows, maybe you'll be able to go and buy your Model Y with the extra seats.

and if you really do not want the seeds, you could I Don't know, Maybe trade them in for a three thousand dollar rebate immediately after completing the purchase? You know, maybe on the very next screen all the while collecting your seven and a half thousand dollar tax credit? I Don't know. Just a random thought. They will have to wait and see on that one. We'll also have to wait and see on how 2023 plays out for Tesla If we do enter a deeper session, as some people are saying, Tesla's profit margins will probably shrink because that's what happens in a recession to pretty much everybody.

But at the same time, the profit margins of companies like Ford and GM will probably have to go negative for exactly the same reasons and many of the new EV companies are going to struggle at to survive and some will probably go bankrupt. Any macro that is going to affect Tesla will also affect affect everything else too. Tesla does not live in a bubble and the key here is that unlike the other companies that Tesla competes with, Tesla does not carry a huge debt burden. Their margin started off from a much higher Point already.

So from an Investor's perspective, if there is a storm, you would probably expect Tesla to weather it much better than other car manufacturers for those reasons. So if you're looking 10 plus years into the future, in my opinion, a storm, if it happens, is only likely to help Tesla cement its dominance and growth rather than hinder it because the storm will hit the less prepared a lot harder. And this is why I don't really care. Either way, short-term perturbations are short-term perturbations and the underlying fact is that Tesla is continuing to perform extremely well despite all of the noise.

If you found this video useful, don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching and as always I'll see you guys later. Thank you.