Tesla stock could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime, but it could also bankrupt you before you ever get that opportunity of a lifetime unless things rapidly change at a Tesla. Notably with Elon Musk after all, consider this: Bloomberg Intelligence assites that China's new energy vehicle sales are robust despite a decline in Auto Sales because of Covid. And of course, we do know that Tesla Shanghai has recently cut prices to compete, but we still have robust sales for Nevs up 58 in November year over year. Tesla's growth in China year over year was in excess of 80 percent.

Now, While yes, there is a Slowdown that is leading to some signs of concerns for demand for Tesla products in China In December, the broader industry in China is doing substantially worse. consider in November While Navs across the board grew 58 year-over-year China is Auto industry but broader Trend and had a nine percent decline. Gas powered vehicle sales are plummeting new. Energy Electric vehicle contributions to total sales are increasing.

A year ago, they sat at 21. now they sit last month at 36 percent. This means more cars are being sold that are all electric. The trend is electrification.

The trend is your friend. Tesla is one of the vehicle companies with the largest moat around its EV brand because of its technology in self-driving Otherwise, you'd actually have real competition and there'd be many more risk factors for Tesla. But because of Tesla's investment into self-driving technology that is Leaps and Bounds likely to the tune of five years ahead of the competition with even Apple now delaying any of their self-driving car or car in general hopes until 2026, plus yet another delay, Apple's really good at delaying things until they've perfected it. So so personally, I don't see it happening before 2030, but hey, knock on wood.

Maybe Apple will come around. In the meantime, stick with the iPads and the iPhones. Okay, still good margins on those. Apple has pricing power.

Tesla However, though the concern is maybe losing its pricing power even though commodity prices are starting to rotate down. This is a very good thing because even if prices for cars come down, as long as commodity prices come down, Tesla could actually maintain or expand margins. In addition to that, we have a little bit of a short-term footage cycle mostly do when it comes to demand due to that new Energy vehicle credit for an electric vehicle in the United States purchased in 2023. As a result, Tesla is promoting an approximately three thousand, seven hundred fifty dollar credit if you buy a Tesla like a model 3.

in December which is about half as much as the federal tax credit you would get next year. And this somewhat makes sense because you would get that 3 750 discount immediately if you bought a Tesla in December but you would actually not get that 7 500 vehicle credit until 2024 when you file your taxes because that's the way tax benefits work. You buy a vehicle in 2023. you don't actually get the tax benefit or break until you file your taxes the next year, which basically is somewhere around a 14 15 month delay on getting that money.

so there's an opportunity cost there. However, I found that generally people are really bad at analyzing opportunity cost and the time value of money money. Therefore, it just wouldn't surprise me if most buyers have in their minds thirty seven hundred fifty dollars in December or 7 500 in January January it is at the same time. Unfortunately, of course as Tesla Shanghai has exceeded shipments of Tesla's across out of Shanghai by aha or out of the Shanghai facility of over a hundred thousand vehicles in November.

Unfortunately, Tesla is facing the biggest fud story of its life and the reality is, it's a true fud story. It's not fake news, it is a story that could actually the valuation of Tesla and unfortunately hamper its abilities to promote a green Energy Future which is the entire goal of Tesla. It's a reason people invest in Tesla Green. Energy Future We want semi trucks.

We want electric. uh, pickup trucks. Like cyber trucks, we want solar roofs. We want solar panels.

We want grid batteries. We want home batteries. We want green. Society wants to move to a sustainable future.

Unfortunately, Elon Musk is single-handedly jeopardizing both potential Futures that he is seeking. Elon Musk seeks a future of free speech and one of green energy so we can protect the climate, protect our ecosystem, and eventually get to Mars But let's focus on some near-term goals: Free speech I Think most people are big fans of free speech within the bounds of the law I Don't think anyone really disagrees with that and I don't think anybody really disagrees that we should have some form of reasonable transition to sustainable energy. I Mean after all, when companies like BP and Occidental are working on carbon capture Technologies and solar farms and wind farms, we know there's a desire for a green and sustainable future. That's okay.

it's not partisan, unfortunately. Elon Musk's partisan talks, which many on mostly the right, say oh well, he's just speaking the truth by speaking the truth whether it is or is not. The truth is not the point of this video. By speaking out and making an opinion, what he's actually doing, in my opinion, is risking the sustainable future for Tesla and risking the potential Free Speech Future of Twitter See, consider this if Elon Musk's Behavior leads advertisers to leave.

Whether or not it's right or wrong is a bad. Disney Business decision which could lead to the bankruptcy of Twitter The bankruptcy of Twitter removes free speech from our environment. It actually has the opposite effect. So Elon Musk's business Behavior could actually hurt free speech.

The same is actually true at Tesla. Not only could the Twitter overhang which has for many months been affecting Tesla negatively. Not only could the Tessa the Twitter overhang over a potential bankruptcy, even though I don't think they're going to go bankrupt, Elon's alluded to it and it certainly isn't helping prevent that idea with more layoffs or people quitting on a regular basis. more drama on a daily basis in the mainstream media deep deep thought cycle.

Right now, Elon is not doing us any favor by exceedingly ostracizing people, increasing the demands on advertisers to leave. Twitter. And if that happens, bankruptcy at Twitter or cash flow issues at Twitter means more selling pressure on Tesla stock. Now some people say Kevin you shouldn't be concerned about the short-term valuation of Tesla I'm not.

But what you should be concerned about is the mission of Tesla. When Tesla's share price goes down, it actually limits Tesla's ability to attack attract top tier. Talent It When Elon takes political positions, it limits the people who apply to work at Tesla to contribute to a sustainable future. It limits people's interest in funding new projects at Tesla or even working with Tesla in the first place.

It's a big problem and it is a problem that I think at the moment Elon Musk is either being blind to or he just doesn't realize is actually important because when you hurt the valuation of Tesla, it's not just about the individual shareholders that are getting hurt, it's about the future opportunities to actually invest in the goals that you're trying to achieve. It's harder to negotiate supplier contracts, especially if those suppliers have any political bias that stands in contrast to yours. It is actually harder for you to buy land in certain cities or countries where you want to build a new gigafactory because maybe you've ostracized, specifically the politicians that you should be trying to win over for the benefit of a clean and sustainable future. Now Personal only I think Elon Musk is going through a pretty dark time I I Don't know, but I think there's a chance he's going through a high level of stress, a lack of sleep, a high level of frustration, a high level of criticism in the media or from people in social media even myself included.

Uh, and and really what happens sometimes when people feel like there's so much stress around them, they're not sleeping enough. They're frustrated, they're trying to do their best, which I believe he's trying to do their his best is you kind of lash out and and sometimes the best thing to do in a case like this is just take a break, take a break from from talking to people, take a break from social media, take a few days off of Twitter right? relax a little bit and try to reset a little bit and get your mind re-centered. But until then, I don't know that Elon Musk is actually fit to be a CEO of anything right now because I do think he's in a little bit of of a state of well, frustration quite frankly and stress and that's being showcased. Elon Musk could quit as SEO of Tesla and quit as CEO of Twitter as soon as possible.

Elon Musk should stand aside. he's established Tesla Let it run without the disaster of Elam once Elon which I expect within the next two to six months, Elon establishes Twitter on more solid footing. He should also get out. Stand aside, think up a new project.

Let these great businesses run unimpeded from your political speech. I'm not opposed to you sharing your opinion, but when it affects the businesses that you are running to promote the best for mankind and Woman Cat which is promoting free speech and climate change, the actions of Elon are actually doing exactly the opposite. and that is what most aren't seeing in it's really dangerous right now. it's not about the share price, but we could talk about the share price as well.

You have to consider, this institutions cannot touch Tesla Right now it's a hot potato. or at least they it would be very difficult for them to do so when Elon Musk is essentially being aggressive. It makes it very difficult for Pension funds, hedge funds, financial advisors, and unions to justify holding Tesla in their portfolio so they have to sell it because they have. They can't spend their whole day explaining to their investors why they're holding on to a company like Tesla where the stock is substantially underperforming the market and you've got Elon That used to be a benefit now it is a liability.

In addition to that, you have substantial tax loss harvesting. Now all of these things have almost nothing to do with the fundamental value of Tesla. Some softening Demand by China should have negligible impact. Some impact would be okay on the fundamental value of Tesla.

That's understandable that we don't really expect that to be some a substantial portion of it of an issue. We also realize that yes, there could be some downside risk in you know if less people buy Teslas because of political concerns that could affect the network effects of Tesla fewer people buying Teslas in the future. However, those could all go away if Elon just shut up today and just focused on providing good products that focused on climate Transitions and focused on Free Speech alone rather than than you know doing what he's doing. If you just focused on providing a good product what you might be doing at the same time.

but if you solely focused on that, people will come back I Expect people will come back to Tesla because it has the Mote of self-driving It has the product moat. It has a great product so you have to consider institutions can't touch Tesla You're in a massive Twitter foot cycle and you also have substantial tax loss harvesting. The best thing that people could do in my opinion not Financial Advice right now is: move potentially out of Tesla stock, take large losses on Tesla If you have losses on Tesla which many people do, offset your other gains to lower your taxes, maybe take a 30 gain like that. Move that money potentially into an ETF that has a large exposure to Tesla And now what have you done? You've taken a tax advantage and then moved into a vehicle that is going to give you even more tax advantages in the future.

Remember after all, Tesla Solar batteries Tesla semi Tesla pickup. These are all incredible green opportunities. and what Elon is doing with Twitter is driving free speech. He will achieve a climate transition, energy transition, and Free Speech transition, but he is hurting the reality of those happening at least in the short term with his yapping.

This is where I think If Elon just focused on providing a good quality product and left the opinions to other people, things would end up being just fine and this would actually make Tesla look like an incredible buying opportunity. If you compare Tesla today to a company that's actually growing pretty well as well, you look at a company like Chipotle selling at a PEG ratio of also roughly around a one with about an EPS forecast, a growth of an average of about 28 to 30 percent which is roughly in line with what Wall Street expects. For Tesla you have two companies selling for around 50 ish times uh, earnings and and a PEG ratio of somewhere around 50 divided by 30. So about 1.66 However, if Tesla ended up pulling off a 50 compounded annual rate of growth of Eps, we could be closer to a one peg.

The valuation for Tesla would actually be quite phenomenal. In that case, the only way the valuation fundamentally shifts or or the fundamentals for Tesla shift is if demand does fall off a cliff or commodity prices don't come down to the point where margins can be maintained. That means the flood cycle we're going through now could be a substantial buying opportunity. But my belief is if Elon wants to be spokesperson for the anti-welk world, he should not be the CEO of Twitter or the CEO of Tesla.

He could be a researcher and and and product Uh Creator But get the opinion you know and then talk all your opinions all you want. but not as an executive leader who has to make business decisions. whether or not things are true things could be true. but there are just some things you don't bring up when you're trying to create a platform whose purpose is Free Speech each.

When by you talking with extreme opinions, you potentially ruin what could enable you to have free speech and that's advertising support. The same is true for Tesla's energy goals. My take: Thank you so much for watching. We'll see in the next one.

Goodbye.