Hey guys, it's Sasha Tesla Stock has fallen all the way down to 154 dollars as I'm recording this video and I was going to talk about something else today. something actually important but a whole bunch of you have been leaving comments saying make urgent video about Tesla bro or message me on Twitter panicking about Tesla selling off emailing me some people I know have been whatsapping me. So Okay, okay seeing everyone seems to want to talk about it, let's talk about Tesla because Tesla stock is now at the lowest point it has been since November 2020. and a lot of people who think that they are long-term investors are throwing their toys out of the pram and panicking.

Oh my. God Tesla Stock is down, sell everything, Get out before it's too late. And of course all the usual Blackmagic fortune tellers have also come out of the woods to say that they perfectly predicted exactly this, even if the reason the stock has gone down has exactly nothing to do with the single one of the arguments they made when they were making the prediction. So here is what's actually going on.

First, let's talk about the elephant in the room, which is Elon Musk Because there is a wave of frustration from the general gamblers who say that Elon Musk is to blame for the stock going down because of course when Tesla went up 3, 200 or whatever from 2019 to 2021, that was because they were genius investors who made the perfect stock pick through the exceptional wisdom and Analysis But now that Tesla is down 60, it is. of course Elon Musk's fault. That is how it works as an actual long-term investor. I Happen to base my investing decisions on fundamentals unexpected company performance and that's it.

So let's look at what happened to the fundamentals: Unexpected company performance Since mid-september when the stock was double the price in November, the Shanghai Factory had a record production month and a record delivery month, delivering over a hundred thousand cars in China and for the export Market This was the same time as everyone else was ignoring this actually important factual news and instead focusing on an article based on mysterious insiders that said the December production Shanghai might be a little lower. A few days ago Tesla started delivering the very first semi trucks. So they have added a whole new vehicle category and this one will take time to ramp will take time to improve. They've actually got to build out the proper battery charging infrastructure and all of that jazz as well as the production line, but they have made a start.

They are now selling actual trucks to actual customers and a few days before that the giant Giga press for the Cyber truck was completed in Italy and is now being shipped and installed in Austin because the Cyber truck is on the way next year. These are core long-term fundamentals and they are looking great. But there is this concern: a demand for Tesla's cars is collapsing, but the growth story is over and I don't understand where the this is coming from. It's a really interesting hypothesis, so let's just look at the numbers.

The main focus seems to be on the Shanghai Factory and in Q3 This year that factory made 188 317 cars. remember Q3 was a record-breaking quarter for Tesla in October and November Tesla made 171 995 cars in just two months of this quarter. So let's say that these reports are right, and Tesla has slowing down production significantly in December. That was still mean that Q4 total numbers will only be 235 000 cars instead of, you know, 255 000 or whatever.

So only 36 up on the previous quarter, which was a record-breaking quarter and of course only increasing deliveries by 36 in three months from the same. Factory is an extremely bad level of performance. But then apparently Tesla is having to offer buyers in China a discount. oh my goodness, and discount of 6 000 Yuan to get people to buy the car which is approximately 860 dollars.

And of course, this is the worst thing that has ever happened. It means the world is about to collapse. It means nobody wants to buy a Tesla car. except in June Five months ago Tesla increased prices on the model Y in China by 19 000 Yuan and in March three months before that, Tesla increased prices in the model.

Why buy 10 000 Yuan So in the calendar year of 2022 or just in the last nine months, the price of the model Y in China has gone up by 23 000 Yuan after this latest discount, so up around six percent in the last nine months. It's pretty interesting how when you look at the numbers in the long term, they sort of look a little bit different to just staring at the stock chart and the News coming in jumping around every single day for no reason whatsoever. In the UK Tesla now has an inventory and people are pointing that this is a really bad thing. This is the sign that there is no demand for the cars.

Nobody wants to go and buy them, they turn up and they remain unsold. Ten days ago, the UK inventory had 285 cars in it I Counted today the number is at 300 and in November Tesla sold 4229 cars in the UK So that inventory holds about two days worth of sales and 290 out of the 300 cars in the inventory are X demo cars. Now the wait times for cars have come down significantly across the board. They're now just a few weeks in the UK coming down from from several months and they're kind of like the same across the Us across Europe and many other places.

The lungs that you have to wait in most countries is March and the point seems to be, well, there is no longer a long wait time for a new car, so that must mean there is no demand. But go and look at the sales numbers. The Model Y was the best selling car in Norway in November not the best-selling EV It was the best selling car selling three times as many cars as Volkswagen Id4 in second place in the UK. The model Y was the second most popular character, the Qashqai that cost less than half the price.

The Model Y was also the number one selling car in Switzerland in Germany Tesla Sales in November grew by 92.7 year on year in France Tesla sales in November grew by 167 percent year on year. In the first three days of Tesla opening up shop in Thailand a new market for them, they received more than 5 000 orders. These are all facts and actual data instead of sentiment and blah blah hearsay, but instead everyone is concerned that you know Elon Musk's focus on Twitter means that Tesla is dead. And sure, the guy has made the biggest, ever private acquisition of a company a month and a half ago and he's spending a few weeks initially, fixing what needs to be fixed, setting up what needs to be set up, all the while, Tesla is posting record production numbers, posting record delivery numbers, launching new models, ramping production in Austin Berlin And in the last few days, Elon Musk sold another 3.6 billion dollars worth of Tesla stock according to filings from last night and again, everyone is buttered.

Oh no, he selling and that means he doesn't believe in Tesla anymore, the company's dead, get out, sell everything, and you know what? Maybe that's the case. Maybe you're right, despite Elon saying it isn't publicly, maybe he is lying. although he does still happen to have 423 million shares left after this recent sale and that is before one more tranche of stock that he's probably going to unlock next year as part of his performance award, which will give him another 26 million shares. Or maybe just maybe.

he just went and bought a new company that is currently losing money and he used short-term debt to complete that purchase and is now having to square the cash flow. I Guess a lot of people find it very difficult to actually separate the performance of the stock from the performance of the company in their brain. In the long term, a good company performance translates into good stock performance, but in the short term the stock price is just driven by noise. Every day there is some or some other positive news story, Things go up and down have absolutely zero impact at all on the long-term performance of the company on the company fundamentals.

I Go and look at the company performance and I see a company that is going to grow at a ridiculous rate for the next few years because everything is in place and all the data is pointing to it. The global switch to electric cars is only just getting started. Everyone's saying that the Tesla story is over. the EV story is over.

It's all finished. We're right at the beginning. Right now, the big incumbent car producers are still announcing brand new internal combustion models that will only start coming to the market next year. And in 2024, in the US, only six percent of all new cars sold are electric, and the US is one of the most advanced markets out there.

That means 94 of the new cars being sold in the US right now will need to be replaced by an electric car in the future. Have a little. Think about it. We have decades ahead of us where where every electric car that is being made or will be sold, Volkswagen and Toyota have much bigger inventories than Tesla does and they are the two biggest car manufacturers and Car Sales companies in the world.

Apple doesn't make you wait six months from ordering an iPhone to owning one, and they seem to do just fine with demand. Having a wait time is not really any kind of function of whether there is or isn't demand for the product and actually having short wait times or no wait times is a big selling. Advantage because it means people can go and buy your product and are not put off by having to place an order and wait. Every single actual performance metric that you look at tells you that Tesla is absolutely killing it.

and there is very much that I am very excited about. about. Next year and the year after, we've got the ramps and the extensions of existing factories, we have the Cyber truck on the way. new Factory announcements that should be coming soon I Hope an FSD is becoming better and better.

And by the way, the way it's released in the last few weeks also means that Tesla will be able to pocket at some of the deferred revenue in Q4, which will give them a nice one-off bump to their performance when we see the numbers in January as an investor I Am baffled and somewhat astonished by this ridiculously strange sentiment towards Tesla because the fundamentals are doing great. I Don't care what the short-term noise does I Don't care what the share price does. 99 of the people who buy a new car do not give a who the CEO is, they don't know I am betting the 99 of you watching this video have absolutely no idea who the CEO of the company that made your car is the car that you drive right now and you probably have no idea or don't care what their political views are. But the Echo Chamber of Tesla stock Analysts on Social Media seems to think that this is the most important thing that everyone pays attention to.

Listen. Nobody gives a Steve Jobs was apparently a complete to work with, didn't get on with people, was bro brutal in running his teams, had no hesitation to fire people, Massive reorganizations, improve processes and you know what? Nice guys finished last I Am not investing in Elon's ability to make friends and be amenable to people I Don't care what his political views are one way or another, what I do care is that he seems to be able to get on with the Communist Party in China where he got unique rights that no other car company got in building that factory in Shanghai And despite all the Huha, he managed to go and build and start a factory in record time in Germany despite the endless bureaucracy and opposition groups doing everything in their power to slow that process down and at the same time, he seems to be able to find common language with right-wing leaders and other countries that may become size for future gigafactories. or Supply the raw materials needed to make electric cars. Elon has shown that he is capable of spinning a number of plays at the same time.

Adding Twitter is a distraction, but Tesla is not a baby that needs daily attention or else is going to die. In fact, I Personally think that Tesla is reaching a point where they will do just fine even if Elon just stops having an active role in the business. Believe It or Not Elon is not actually making all of the cars himself on the production line. I know hard to believe from where I'm sad I am an extremely happy Tesla shareholder and I actually do hope that this low price stays though as long as possible so that I can go and collect as many shares as I possibly can over the coming months.

The longer there is a discrepancy between what the company is doing, what the fundamentals are doing, and what the stock is doing. The better it is as far as I am concerned because it means that I get to invest at a much better price than it was last month or last year. And here is a top tip to all the people whining on Twitter and everywhere else about the share price. If a company share price going down in the short term is something that makes you genuinely upset if you play stupid games with leverage or short-term options, or if you're emotionally affected by short-term share price movements in might just be a sign that you shouldn't be investing in individual stocks because this is something that happens all the time.

It's just that the majority of retail investors have never seen a bear Market Because they only started investing when everything was going up in 2020 or 2021. Most people should not invest in individual stocks anyway because it carries a much higher level of risk Tesla included and most people will underperform the market in the long term when they try to pick their own stocks because they will invest when everything is exploding. when Tesla stock is at 400, everything is great. Shut up and take my money, but then they wave their hands up in the air and panic when the stock price is down at 150 dollars.

It's funny to talk about buying high and selling low, but this is exactly what is happening right now in front of our eyes. Everyone thought Tesla stock was great when it was at 300 or 400, but fast forward a year. The fundamentals have improved. The company performance is through through the roof, but the stock price is at 150 dollars.

Oh and oh no Elon tweeted something Boo! Who sell everything? Everyone needs to get out of the stock right now I Personally find it quite amusing, but hey, maybe it is just me.