Hey guys it's sasha and oh, my god, the next month is going to be crazy for tesla shareholders. There is just so much going on with tesla stock and in this video i will tell you all the big things happening over the next four weeks october might be the biggest month tesla has ever had, and this could be really really big for tesla investors. There is a lot to cover a lot to talk about, so let's jump right in and talk about the numbers to start with. Over the weekend, tesla published their quarterly production numbers now in q3 2021, which ended at the end of september, tesla delivered 241 300 cars and they produced 237 823 cars.

That is about 20 up on the last quarter, which is an insane increase, and the numbers coming out of china actually suggest that the production really ramped up only at the end of that quarter in september. So we should be expecting another big increase in q4 as well, and remember that the model x production line hasn't actually restarted yet and the model s production in fremont is still ramping up after it restarted at the end of q2, and the two new factories are Yet to come online more on that later, but here are a few things that make these numbers even better than they already are stuff that you don't see in the report. A large chunk of those model s deliveries are the new plaid models, if not a very large chunk, then at least a significant number. These are the cars that cost 124 000 in the us before any of the extras and with the extras can cost quite a substantial amount of money.

The margins on these cars are also going to be significant and the margins are going to be even higher, because fremont is no longer exporting cars. European customers are now getting their cars from china and if you want to buy model s in the uk, you have to wait until the end of next year for your estimated delivery before any delays. It is the same story with the model 3 and the model y as well. The more expensive performance models are being prioritized at the moment, and that means that the revenue and profit numbers for the quarter should make for very interesting reading in the us.

The cheapest model y that you can buy is the long range which is one of the better ones in the overall range that you used to have availability of and in the uk you can't even order a model y at all. You get an error 404 page. If you try, the quarter, results are likely to come out at the end of this month and the last two quarters tesla changed from doing these on a wednesday to doing them on the monday. So we're probably looking at the 25th of october for when those numbers will be announced now in q2, tesla posted revenues of almost 12 billion dollars and 2.5 billion dollars in adjusted ebitda everything is pointing to a significant jump in those numbers.

Car production is up 20, as i just mentioned, and it will be interesting to see how much the energy storage part of this business has delivered, because that is probably the one that i am most excited by. I am expecting somewhere around 15 billion dollars in revenue and ebitda to be over 3 billion, which would be an incredible set of results and a huge, a really really big job. Now last quarter, the automotive gross margin was insane. It was 28.4 and with the more expensive models being sold and less shipping costs, there is a chance that that number might actually go up to over 30 percent, which is bonkers for a car company.

It is just completely nothing like any of the other manufacturers, but before we get to the q3 results, we have the shareholder meeting that takes place this week on thursday october 7th, and this should be very interesting. There are some admin things that they need to sort out. There was some voting, but i am expecting a few major announcements and some really interesting information to be shared. Specifically, the rumor mill is saying that texas production may start sooner than many people think the first class could be rolling off the texas production line in the next few weeks with berlin to follow soon after some time later.

This quarter, and that would be an incredible result, because if the production numbers are already expected to get a 10 to 20 boost from fremont and shanghai factories alone, as they continue to optimize, we are already potentially looking at a quarterly volume of somewhere in the 270. To 280 000 cars, and if we get any sort of output from these two new factories, probably predominantly the austin one, that number could top 300 000 for q4, which is an annual run rate of 1.2 million cars. That is already a really significant milestone. I am hoping for an announcement of a new gigafactory, potentially maybe more than one getting new gigafactory site, although i think it is quite unlikely with the two ones that they are currently building being so close to completion.

It is quite likely that tesla is probably already planning the next two to three sites if they want to continue growing the business according to their gross trajectory they're internally saying they want to grow at least 50 per year. Because of that, i'm expecting that at some point next year, they're going to be starting to build those new factories, and it is probably more likely that we'll hear about the details of that in a few months time. But let's see what we're here, if anything on thursday, i will be doing a live stream of the shareholder meeting at 10 30 pm uk time, which is 4 30 p.m. Central time in the united states notice that tesla published to the meeting to take place in central time that is not the time zone for tesla's palo alto hq in california.

It just happens to be the time zone for austin texas, which is also with a place where the q3 production numbers paper was officially published for the first time, because all the previous versions of this document said palo alto, california, at the top, and so i expect That on thursday, tesla will probably maybe announce that their headquarters is moving from california to texas. They will keep the palo alto base. I am very sure of it so that they can continue hiring from the silicon valley, talent pool so that they can get all their smart engineers. All of those smart data people, but it is looking like texas, will now be the official new tesla base.

There are attacks and other advantages to being based in texas over california, as well as a brand new factory that they've just built there and i'm guessing there's going to be a whole new hq campus somewhere there as well and spacex, are doing more and more of Their work in texas as well a lot of their rocket engine development happens in mcgregor texas, which is not very far away, and the bakashika base is where elon musk is building his starships. So that means that he can now stay roughly in the same place for both of those businesses. So a lot of corporate updates this month and i think that they are going to be incredibly positive for tesla shareholders, the shareholder meeting and the announcements about their hq and tesla's future and the q3 results are all in october. But then we have more.

Then we have joe biden's infrastructure bill that is taking its time. But now nancy pelosi has set october 31st as a deadline for getting that infrastructure bill passed. And although the details keep changing and electric vehicle incentives that come with the bill, either directly within it or as a separate piece of legislation are going to be, a massive boost for tesla buyers are going to get seven and a half thousand dollars credit. Maybe this is gon na change, let's see what happens when they buy electric vehicles and a further four and a half thousand dollars if they buy from a company that has worker unions.

That has absolutely nothing to do with those worker unions being a large component of why biden won the election. Absolutely nothing to see here. It's actually currently being debated a lot, so maybe that particular bit is going to change. Maybe it's going to be taken out.

We'll see but regardless tesla's cars are completely dominating the market and the demand for tesla's cars is far outstripping supply. The expected dates on which you can buy the cars are going up every single week. It used to be a couple months. Now it's three to four months, then it's five to six months and suddenly it is almost impossible to actually buy new tesla.

They sold more in the last quarter than they produced. Customers may choose to buy more expensive models because of this new incentive, just as the austin factory is being ramped up. Just as the new production is rolling off the production line. Suddenly customers can get seven and a half thousand dollars as an effective discount for buying that tesla, and that might mean that there will be higher margins, which brings more cash into tesla, which can then be redeployed to building new factories and so on.

So this is an incredibly positive bit of news. Let's see how that one plays out but wait. There's more tesla's, full-sail driving is making its way to tesla owners in the united states in october as well - and this is big - this is not available to all tesla customers, but a lot of tesla owners are currently being assessed. You have to press a button to do the assessment for full self-driving to be enabled as a feature in their cars now version 10.2 of ffsd is about to come out and at the moment each release is making major significant improvements over the previous version.

Given that these are coming out every two to three weeks, this is another bit of incredible news, and there are two big reasons why the first is that tesla is already years ahead of all the competition on self-driving technology. There are main competitors that apparently technically have a higher number of autonomous driving like waymo, for example, but they are using incredibly complex sensor, setups that are clearly still years from being anything remotely close to something you'd put on an actual production card that people would actually Buy they also only work in specific, very narrow, pre-mapped locations and essentially work a bit like a train that happens to drive on roads. They use that 3d map to navigate and make adjustments on that navigation based on the things they see. They don't drive based on what they see and make decisions, so road layout changes or any place that doesn't have a sophisticated 3d map available which, by the way, is pretty much everywhere other than those very specific places.

Where they're doing the testing will be a bit of a problem anyway, full self driving is a massive joker card for tesla, because over the next few years, that is likely to be a massive reason for demand. Continuing to be very high, tesla could even sell their full self driving tech to other car brands over time, which would be one heck of a revenue stream for a software business, but best of all the revenue from customers who purchased fsd over the last few years. Will crystallize as soon as fsd is delivered, is actually available as a service to the customers who have paid money for it, and that is incredibly important. This is money that tesla has already collected but cannot be fully realized in the p l.

It is not profit. It is sort of money that's being collected and is waiting to become profit, so fsd nearing the full public release is another really big deal that is happening over the next few weeks and another really big deal is something that many tesla fans don't appreciate enough october Is the month when lucid and rivian are beginning to supply actual cars to actual customers? This is incredibly important for tesla. Until now, tesla was the only fully electric new car manufacturer in the us. Now we have two more and yes, they are brand new and, yes, they have lots of issues to resolve.

And, yes, they are only making a tiny handful of cars compared to the huge volumes that tesla is doing. And, yes, they probably will not catch tesla. And yes, those are in very specific segments. Tesla was also in that position 10 to 12 years ago, and, yes, their valuations, do piggyback on tesla's success.

Tesla has shown the way it has shown. What is possible, and people are now more easily able to believe that these companies can do it too, but tesla's long-term success needs the public to mass, adopt electric vehicles. They need a regular everyday joe to go and want to buy one of these cars. Gm for toyota and all the other large car manufacturers are not really trying too hard in forcing people to make the switch promising that maybe one day in 2030, some proportion of their cars will be electric.

Now the global car market is more than big enough for a dozen companies to succeed and do incredibly well let let alone tesla and more media attention more alternative. Electric cars being available. More public awareness is only going to help tesla over the next few years. So this is actually, in my opinion, really good news and i'm super excited by everything going on with tesla in october.

I have a feeling that all of these things will have a big impact on tesla's share price and i wouldn't be surprised if we're testing all-time high levels going over 900 dollars in october, or maybe sometime later in q4. If you found this video useful, i would really appreciate it if you could smash a like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it.

As always i'll see you guys later, you.