Hey guys, it's sasha over the last two days, tesla stock has collapsed by around 16 and is now trading at 1023. As i'm recording this video there's been a lot of speculation as to what's causing the sell-off, and i want to talk you through why i think tesla share price has been falling so sharply. I'll then share some thoughts on what i think will happen with the share price going forward, and some of the reasons for that. Are we seeing a massive correction even further down over the next few days or maybe is it gon na go back up um? What are the next few weeks and the next few months going to bring? But let's start at the beginning, because the fluctuation in tesla price at the moment seems to be massively overanalyzed and hugely over complicated by a lot of people.

I am seeing all kinds of wild theories ranging from tesla q impending doom or complete collapse through to conspiracy theories of us. Regulators and government poking sticks in the wheels of the tesla share price train. But unfortunately, i think the truth is much more simple and unfortunately, also not quite as exciting. You might have heard that over the weekend, elon musk decided to do some tweeting, quite possibly after a few sips of tesla killer, but that's a theory.

We will never have actual proof for now elon put out a poll on twitter where he asked if he should go ahead and sell 10 of his stock to stick two fingers up to us. Regulators who are currently debating attacks on unrealized capital gains and the majority voted yes and elon musk, underneath that tweet said that he would abide by the poll and do as the people say, i've got to give it to him. This is a pretty epic two fingers to the regulators to the government, and a lot of people have speculated. Why is he doing it? The most popular argument out there, it seems, is that elon has tesla stock options that are expiring next summer and he will have a big fat tax bill to pay.

So at some point along the way he has to sell anyway to cover those taxes and that theory could actually hold some legs. You know billionaires like elon. Musk do get very cheap loans that are secured against their shares as collateral and that's how they fund themselves. Even though they don't take a salary, but elon's numbers are beginning to put him in a league of his own, even compared to other multi-billionaires, and even if you are elon musk, it might not be as easy as some people would say to go and just collect Several tens of billions of dollars as a loan against what is ultimately a somewhat volatile security, and there are other theories that elon is selling to settle his personal debts.

Although i'm not sure that that theory holds too much water. Even if you are a billionaire 20 billion dollars is a heck of a lot of money, but i think this is much more of a chess move than a reaction from elon. This debate about unrealized capital gains has been going on for quite a while now, and it appears that the people on capitol hill, many of whom have never actually had a proper job, let alone run one of the biggest companies in the world. Those people simply don't understand what would happen if they force all those billionaire company owners to go and flood the market with shares.

They don't understand just basic economics and given that this week is the crunch week. For that conversation, i just think that elon has played a blind chess move that nobody expected. He has gone and said. Look let me flood the market of just one company with a tiny proportion of my shares just 10 and that's just my shares.

Not anyone else's and because elon musk did this tweeting over the weekend. He couldn't just go and immediately sell those shares first thing on monday morning there are rules on how insider shares can be sold, how they have to be structured, the timing of them etc. But the market didn't like the tweets, obviously over the weekend and the share price dipped by five percent on monday in anticipation of the sale, but nothing much seemed to move specifically on monday. But then yesterday happened.

Tesla's share price tumbled right at market open by 10 and just kept on going down from there, and then you go and look at the trading volume and we saw a volume of over 59 million shares yesterday, which just huge. I don't remember a single day when that maybe there was some time ago, the day before it was 33 million, and that number tends to fluctuate in the mid-20s to 30 million sort of over the last few weeks. So it looks like we had about. 25-Ish million extra shares at least thrown into the daily trading volume and based on the data.

It looks like a lot of them if not all of them were sold right at market open and just in case you're trying to do the math in your head. 10 of elon's tesla shareholding is about 20 million shares, so pretty much the bulk of that extra trading volume. Yesterday, what a coincidence so was it elon who sold? Well, we don't know just yet. We haven't had an sec filing on insider trading just yet, and that filing has to be made legally within two business days of the trade happening.

So if elon did sell yesterday, we will see that filing either today or tomorrow, but if he did, which it looks extremely lightly uh. I am seeing this just as a stone that kills a whole flurry of birds in one go. First, off elon is literally showing in real life a tiny insight into what would happen if the imbeciles in the us government decide to go and pass this stupid law. Imagine if this is magnified where every company has all of their big u.s shareholders selling.

At the same time and selling much larger chunks than what we've just seen with tesla, this near 20 drop on tesla stock will be amplified across the market and because of be happening across all different stocks. This could look extremely ugly, just like i said in a video about this topic a couple of weeks ago, and we may well see a major crash that goes 40, 50 or even more down. But of course, selling shares by elon also does help with his tax obligations as well. I mean there is that and then there's the obligatory two fingers to janet yellen from elon, which i actually think is higher on the list of reasons why elon is selling this much stock in one go than many people actually think.

So what does all of this mean for the long-term prospects for tesla shareholders? Well, i think it means exactly nothing if you have cash in hand or you can get cash from somewhere and you're investing in tesla. You know this could be an opportunity if you decide to do it, to go and buy those shares at a 20 discount versus a few days ago for no apparent reason, and there has been no change at all in any fundamental part of tesla's valuation. In fact, i would say that over the last few days, we've actually heard almost entirely amazingly positive news, tesla shanghai smashed all expectations for october volumes with 54 391 cars sold that is just below the previous month and the first month in the quarter is usually the Low point and is usually much lower than the month before and then the months that come after so based on this, i am fully expecting tesla shanghai to do around maybe 175 000 cars in q4 and if we add around 110 215 000 cars from fremont we're. Looking at 285 to 290 000 cars for the quarter, which is huge, it would actually be bang on my forecast for this year that i made at the beginning uh.

It would actually be slightly over my forecast, so i'll be pretty happy if that happened. We're also seeing more fsd development and more model y sales are beginning to take off all of this good news and then remember that we're also in the middle of november now and sometime in the next month or two, the texas and berlin factories are likely to Start production and i've been talking about this for some time, but analysts seem to never for some reason never price new factories in properly until production is happening until it's smacking them in the face and they see the actual cars coming out the door. I talked about this before and if you look at tesla share price after shanghai factory opened in 2019, you will see what i mean and we've just had two more examples of exactly this. Just in the last few weeks, look what happened to lucy's share price.

The moment they started actually selling cars produced in their factory. We all knew this was going to happen. We all knew what the value of that was, but for some reason the share price only decided to care about it. The moment those sales were officially announced, and now we have arrivian going public at some point in the very very near future, and they are literally just starting production themselves as well.

So we can see that the moment these new cars begin coming out and the moment we begin seeing videos of it and all the press see and write about it. That's the point when people get very excited about the share price too. So what do you think will happen to tesla's share price when two of the biggest factories ever built on this planet start rolling cars off their production line and then elon promised to announce new factory sites next year? In the last few days, we've also had news of the canadian factory they'll be part of this new battery production chain for tesla, but next year tesla is likely to announce multiple new gigafactory sites, because the new ones will become operational. Elon confirmed this at the annual shareholder meeting in october, so as a long-term investor and as a tesla shareholder.

I personally do not care about this wobble at all. The only reason i care - or the only thing it gives me, is an opportunity to potentially buy more tesla stock at a price that is significantly lower than was a few days ago and is still significantly lower than my personal target price of three thousand dollars. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later.