Hey this is tom, and if you're watching my channel, i assume you have tesla shares in your portfolio. I've been a tesla investor for a long time and i'm assuming, if you watch my channel, you either invest in palantir or tesla or probably both. Now the question in your mind is the same question on my mind: what are we doing with this stock at 650 dollars now april? 4Th the share price was eleven hundred dollars per share, we're currently at 65 0. 650 per share.

That's a huge drop! So the question is: what do we do now because there's really three options here, you sell everything and you cut your losses and you basically say well there's much more ahead. I don't want to deal with it. I'm out option number two: you lower your head and you wait for this thing to blow over and you don't do nothing. You keep your shears.

You stay steady and just write. It out option number three you're buying into the weakness you're doubling down. So there's only three options now, obviously i do not have a crystal ball. I am not the oracle and, as you all know, i've gotten things wrong before multiple times, but what i want to do here is create a system for myself and share this with you.

As far as how i'm attacking the situation, and even if i'm going to be wrong about it, i'm going to be disciplined and i'm going to be following statistics, numbers and fundamentals into my decision, not a hunch, not a gut feeling. So this is how i look at it. So tesla has one major negative catalyst coming up right now for sure which is weak queue to deliveries. China was locked down for a big chunk of q2 so far and it's going to have a negative impact on the deliveries and nobody will care about why this happened and the algorithmic trading is not going to be all sitting there.

Saying: hey. It's the china lockdown. It's okay, so there's going to be a lot of downward selling pressure because of the q2 numbers. I mean it's just one excuse that the tesla haters need - and you know, algae trading doesn't need excuses.

However, despite this negative catalyst, which is absolutely upcoming, the question is: what do we have in the cartridge for positive catalyst, because you have to understand the way this stock market works? It's very different equities are different than commodities, for example when you're trading commodities or energy you're trading at the price. Now, right now, today, when you're trading in equities, a lot of future developments are getting priced in in advance today, so in equities, you're really trading in the next six months. So, despite what i just said, having said that about china lockdowns and impacting negatively, you know the deliveries, there's other negative catalyst, obviously jeffrey's just downgraded tesla from 1200 to 1000 because of essentially negative noise and bad pr and interest rate hikes. Obviously, so there is that, of course, so there's negative noise around tesla because of the elon musk escapades and there's china lockdowns leading to less deliveries, and definitely it will negatively impact the share price.

There's no doubt in my mind, however, what i want to realize here, thinking with you together, is: are there any positive catalysts that will work in the opposite direction and how strong are they compared to the bad catalyst? So, let's think about it together, right. First of all, obviously, china just announced through officials that they're reopening in june, because essentially what they're doing and it's funny to me and to have this conversation with you, because i think it was quite obvious to everybody with half a brain is that china is about To face the situation where they say well, the operation was very successful, but the patient just died, so their zero tolerance policy is working. However, they're killing their economy they're killing their people and basically everybody is going out of their mind, so it doesn't make no sense to kill your economy and abuse your citizens for zero tolerance policy. So chinese officials came out.

I just saw an article on the guardian, but there's many other articles talking about how june is going to be the last month of the zero tolerance policy. So i don't know when in june, but in june, they're gon na lift they'll blockade and everybody will go back to normal. I mean they can't do this for long. China is really focused about the economy.

I don't think it's gon na be lasting anywhere from you know, probably two more weeks. So that's the positive catalyst, because that means that tesla shanghai factory is going to go full operational and some now the second catalyst that you can think of and again it's kind of again a no-brainer here, because the twitter deal is impacting negatively tesla. Everybody thinks that the twitter deal negotiations are a destruction, so once the twitter deal closes either way either it falls apart or it closes, and they actually merge or wait. He buys it.

Sorry, it's not tesla merging, but either way a certainty about tesla or sorry, twitter and elon. It makes this go away, so the deal has an expiration date, which is october this year, so at the latest october is when the deal either gets done or it gets cancelled now, right now, it seems like the deal will get done at a lower price. Probably around 42 43 44 45 give or take. So that seems to be the option of the day, but you know elon is kind of elon, so who knows but october.

Basically this goes away so q4 there's gon na be zero. Twitter news, twitter, distractions, it's gon na be gone, so that's not going to be impacting negatively the the share price of tesla. We know that for a fact now. The other thing we know is that we have a stock split coming up and, as you know, stock splits, even though, fundamentally they don't do anything for the company evaluation.

They allow for more liquidity, there's, obviously more psychological issues here, ease of trading. Obviously, people who trade options and have an easier time to trade with you know a lower share price because there's a minimum amount of options you have to trade. So when you have a six hundred dollar share versus a sixty dollar share or fifty dollar or thirty dollar share it, it makes it more accessible to uh to options trading and a lot of retail investors. So there's gon na be kind of new blood in the system and i don't know if it's good or bad for the stock, but all i'm saying that the split most likely will be a positive catalyst for the share price, obviously does nothing for the company.

I don't really care about that, but what i am excited about is the fact that fsd, which is a revolutionary concept, is going to be operational. I believe by the end of this year, so q4 is probably where we're going to see full self driving actually get released into the service, because there is no car company in the world that has a sustainable service as a software income. Onstar. Yes, i mean.

There's people who tried to do it before, but nobody has fsd fsd - is a 200 pop per month software that is 90 80 margin. The tesla is going to release, i believe in q4 this year and the creation of this extra revenue stream with such high margins is going to be insanely beneficial for the fundamentals of the company, not just the pr but obviously also the pr. That's going to drive the price up, obviously, there's also things coming up next year, which i'm not going to talk about, which is the cyber truck or all the events and potentially new factories. I'm not going to talk about that.

Just based off. You know fsd by the end of q4, twitter deal finishing by the end of october, the stock split and, of course, don't forget china going back online. It seems to me that, even though there might be more pain ahead for tesla share price in the next two three weeks, maybe month, maybe two months by the end of the year, it seems that they're much more overwhelmingly a much more positive catalyst than negative catalyst Ahead so short term, probably more pain ahead for tesla, as the elon saga continues with twitter and as shanghai is still locked down and his q2 numbers will come out. But after that i only see positive catalyst - that's god doesn't through.

So i'm personally going to be doubling down into tesla shares, and this is not a advice for you to do it because, obviously i'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. You know this. You have to do in research because you know i've been wrong before it might be wrong, and this might be, you know the rammings of a madman, blah blah blah.

You know all that stuff right, but i personally will be doubling down, because i believe that tesla by the end of this year is going to be back to 1000 region, which is gon na. I believe going to be one of the most lucrative place for me. Um my target price for tesla since 400 was fifteen hundred dollars, so in tesla's 400 i said 1500, and so it stays fifteen hundred dollars. I value stocks based on the current valuation.

So currently i believe tesla has a fifteen hundred dollar stock based on pure uh securities analysis valuation, but um. I don't think it's going to reach that this year because of everything i just mentioned, but i do believe by the end of the year. It's going to be near 1000, which is exactly the reason i'm not staying in. I'm doubling in so i'll be buying a lot of tesla over the course of the next few months, and you can do your research decide for yourself.

But i just wanted to share with you kind of my analysis of where things are headed as far as tesla, because if you zoom out a little bit, you actually see that the positive catalyst are overwhelmingly stronger than the negative ones. If you go like all the way to q4 and q4 well hope this was helpful, see you next video.