0:00 - Introduction
0:13 - Cathie Wood's interview on CNBC
0:17 - Elon's focus on Tesla & CEO of Twitter's transition to X
1:32 - Q3 financial expectations and the importance of the conference call
1:57 - Financial predictions: revenues, margins
2:37 - Margin erosion due to price drops
2:58 - Automotive revenues and gross margin strategy
3:54 - Predictions on operating margins
4:10 - Importance of EBITDA numbers
4:43 - Expected EPS and revenues
5:01 - The accuracy of the Tesla community in predictions
5:06 - Critical factors in the conference call
5:55 - Confirmation of FSD nearing completion
6:16 - Tesla's current stock value
6:37 - Key factors to watch: timelines for Cybertruck, FSD, Model 3 Highland
Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.
0:13 - Cathie Wood's interview on CNBC
0:17 - Elon's focus on Tesla & CEO of Twitter's transition to X
1:32 - Q3 financial expectations and the importance of the conference call
1:57 - Financial predictions: revenues, margins
2:37 - Margin erosion due to price drops
2:58 - Automotive revenues and gross margin strategy
3:54 - Predictions on operating margins
4:10 - Importance of EBITDA numbers
4:43 - Expected EPS and revenues
5:01 - The accuracy of the Tesla community in predictions
5:06 - Critical factors in the conference call
5:55 - Confirmation of FSD nearing completion
6:16 - Tesla's current stock value
6:37 - Key factors to watch: timelines for Cybertruck, FSD, Model 3 Highland
Nothing in this video constitutes tax, legal, financial and/or investment advice, nor does any information in this video constitute an invitation and/or solicitation to invest in a particular security. This video merely expresses the author’s opinion and should be viewed as such. Before proceeding with any investments, you should do your own research and seek advice from an independent licensed professional.
The author of this video does NOT accept liability for any investment decisions, as this video is provided only for educational and entertainment purposes. Although the author has endeavored for the information in this video to be correct and accurate, he does NOT assume liability nor does he guarantee that the data will be updated, correct and/or accurate at all times.
Okay, so we're back with financial videos. We're back with Tesla. We have a huge update about the Q3 financials coming out today at 430 p.m. eastern time and the conference call is going to be at 5:30 p.m.
eastern time. We have major updates including a very interesting interview by Kathy Wood So Kathy Wood went on CNBC and she was asked is Elan super focused on Tesla Now that you know the new CEO of Twitter formerly known as Twitter currently known as X is kind of more in the ropes of things and she basically answered a whole different question. She said that Elan is almost done with FSD essentially Tesla is almost done with FSD She was talking about how Elan is still very much involved with X giving The Kinks he still has to work out there, but how's also very focused on Tesla Because then she dropped the bomb. She said that he's almost done with FSD he's at the finish line of FSD and that's great news for the people who've been following Tesla for the past few years.
It's not a huge surprise and we can see that they're almost there. and it's kind of insane to think about how nobody nobody in the industry even comes close name me, who's number two, Who's number two in this Now just to kind of mention a few things we're talking about: not just an 80% gross margin, business or business line, we're talking about a potential industry standard much like it happened with the supercharger. Network Once it becomes an industry standard and Tesla becomes the provider of pretty much a monopoly or a quasi Monopoly of full set driving. We're talking about a whole different in Chilada.
It's not just selling cars, but we all knew that. But first of all, we do have to talk about the earnings. Here are my expectations: This is what I see happening. So again, the conference call is going to be 5:30 and I do recommend you listen to the conference call because I think the more important stuff are going to come in through the conference call not specifically from the papers we're going to get at the Q3 financials because that's pretty much already.
Everybody understands where this thing is headed. Now look first of all, I rece a $24 billion quarter Now 20 billion from Automotive 2 billion from energy 2 billion from Services That's an increase from 21 a half billion dollars year over year. Now there will be margin erosion. There's no doubt in my mind, you cannot avoid margin erosion if you're dropping prices on your base models and also the extended models.
But that's a whole different game, right? So if price cuts are part of the game, you're going to see margin erosion. But at the same time, you're going to see increase. So that's why revenues will go up from 21 to 21 a half to 24 and but margins will eventually they'll have to come down. So I foresee a 20% gross margin for Tesla X credits, it's probably going to be between 17 and 17 and a half, but that's a huge decline from the 28% we had just a year ago.
But that isn't going to do anything to the stock price because that is already baked in. Everybody understands where this is coming from, especially given the fact that revenues Automotive revenues will go up from 18.6 to 20 billion dollar. it seems like in this quarter, so even though the gross margin will shrink towards the 20% from 28% which is a huge decline when you just look at it this way. but revenues Automotive revenues will climb from 18.6 to 20 billion dollar. That is the whole concept of what they're doing. here. You drop the price, you sell more, you make more money money even though you make less on every single item. That's just kind of the smart way to squeeze out your competition because they're actually selling cars at loss every single one of them.
with the exception of perhaps Byd, but Byd has a whole different problem to deal with, which is China and a whole bunch of other stuff, etc. etc. No full driving. They have other challenges in which they will not be able to compete with Tesla at least in the near future.
It seems like I Also have predictions about the operating margin I Think the biggest hit will come from the operating margin I Think that will be slashed significantly below 10% probably in that region between 9 and 10% That's a huge slash. but again, I Don't think it's going to negatively impact the share price because at the end of the day, if the EB down numbers the earnings before the tax, the interest, and all that stuff and depreciation depreciation. If the Ibid down numbers does not go below $4 and a half billion dollar, if it's stays in that range of five billion to4 and a half billion dollar, that means that the Eida only drops 10% on the what seems like a significant massive drop of operating margins, and that will be the Crux of it. Can they stay about $4.5 billion dollar of EA Now currently, the expected numbers are EPS of 72 to 75 cents, which is where I think they're going to land, they're not going to miss EPs and the revenues are expected to be 24.2 Again, whether they hit 24.1 or 24.3 it doesn't really matter that isn't going to move the share price because all of this is baked in.
it's well known. It's well documented. You have to remember that this is. you know, the tested Community has been so accurate with predicting these stuff.
This is all well known, so there's no point in looking at these stuff except just to kind of gloss over it. What I think is going to be more critical with this conference call is the stuff they're going to talk about that will move the share price. What will they say about the Cyber truck Specifically the timeline of the Cybertruck that's super super critical. Every word they say about the that that timeline is going to make a huge difference Again, the same thing with Highland What's going on with Highland We've seen it.
It's beautiful. It's gorgeous. It's the most beautiful sedan in that price category by far. It's way better looking than the you know, the usual model 3, the current model 3. So what's going on with the Highline Tim time timeline and where we're going to see that again? As I mentioned Iida about4 and a half billion dollars is important. But even more important will Ilan confirm what Kathy Wood said in her video which is FSD is almost at the Finish Line If en confirms that Then we're looking at a massive, massive reorganization of the market perception of the stock. It's currently significantly underpriced. I've talked about it many times.
This is a $1,400 stock. Make no mistake about it, but that realization moment always comes when everybody's sleeping on it, when everybody's kind of on the Wayside saying ah, the stock. Is that this that? this is a $1,400 stock. If you have patience, of course it's going to be volatile and I'm not making any predictions whether the stock is going to come up or down in the next couple days after the earnings.
but this is the stuff I'm looking at, not specifically the numbers. Cyber Trck Timeline: FSD timeline Highland Timeline These three factors are the most critical for the continuation of the good momentum Tesla Had I Think it's up what 100% year today? Well, in any case, that's kind of my two cents about it I Try to keep it quick and to the point I Don't want to waste your time I'll see you right after earnings.
Thank you Tom
Cathie keeping the finger on the pulses of reading areas of growth are skills developed over years of daily trench works she's worth the Look .
20% down, 1400?
Off by one zero $140 not $1400
I love my Tesla but I'm starting to 'hate' Elon.
Lmao
1400 lol wait until trump or republicans get elected.. WITH MORE CHINA TRADE WAR AND ELIMINATE SPENDING AND REBATES…LOL TSLA WIILL GO BELOW 100 DOLLARS WHERE IT BELONGS
Well this didn’t age well in under 24 hrs😂
Tooooooooommm we need a new video 😂😂😂😂
I kind of see it as FSD or bust, a tad scary if it is not approved or takes too long.
Elon musk needs to be FIRED. Look at stock price of Tesla and Arc investment. BS!
Well, this aged like milk
so i think you need to correct 1400 to 140.
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