All right welcome everybody to this live stream uh. This is going to be quite a long one, so i hope you've got yourself. A nice cup of tea. I've got one uh over here.

I've got myself a glass of water, i'm probably gon na run out um in the first half an hour, but um we are going to be talking about tesla's results. These are coming out in 10 minutes um. I just decided a thought early to tell you all a little bit about what i'm looking for in this then we're going to go through the results, we're going to quickly look at some of the most important things. First, we then we'll just go and read through the whole pack.

We probably won't have time to go through the full. Like 10 q submission uh, they are long and i don't know exactly what they're going to be putting into what that's something that i'm going to be studying a bit later. If anyone has any interesting thoughts, uh, please share them in the chat. It's very nice.

I've got my chat right next to the camera over here, so i'm looking at what people are saying: um um in terms of kind of what we're looking uh, what we're! Looking at! First, let's talk about the numbers. We have a consensus on earnings, seemingly somewhere around the sort of like 17 billion to 17.1 billion on revenues and the consensus depending on which one you read between 2.33 and 2.45, a share i'm expecting significantly more than that. I'd be extremely surprised if it was not at least 2.50. I think i'm targeting more in a 2.80 to 2.82 sort of range, but i don't really even care to be honest, because that number is going to be impacted so much by a bunch of stuff that isn't really particularly uh important.

What is important is the automated gross margin was 30 and a half percent uh last time out in q3. Are they are they continuing to push that as they're scaling production? If they are, those numbers are already bonkers, so that would be quite interesting. Um then we're going to be looking at automotive revenues, uh, what's happening with ebitda numbers um the thing, i'm probably even more interested um than the car side of the business, because we all know what delivery numbers were. We all know like what uh, what the numbers were.

I'm gon na share them in just a second before the numbers come out, but the energy side of the business has been quite stale and elon. I think it was not in the last update, but the one before that uh made a statement saying that, while there's a shortage of components and parts and manufacturing for the batteries, they're gon na be prioritizing car manufacturing over energy. So i'm suspecting that we're probably going to have another quarter where energy is going to be quite suppressed, uh very low volumes on the deployment uh. Although we had quite a few news, through q3 of quite big contracts being signed, new uh installations over in various different interesting places and california and texas, et cetera, so so that's one i'm particularly interested in then we're going to be here having so what we'll do Is we're going to see the results we're going to talk through them, going to look through the numbers and then we're going to just have a little conversation.

I'm going to share some thoughts because there's a lot going on everything from uh new models to sales, to new factories, to insurance, to uh. There's a lot um. So i made a few notes just in the right, so remember what we need to talk about. Okay.

First, let's quickly talk about the production numbers in case you haven't seen them already um. Let me just stick them over here on the screen, all right so over here. These are the production numbers. In case you haven't seen them.

They managed to deliver 308 600 cars. Uh in q4 manufactured 305 840. So that brings the total for the year to 936 and 930, which is significantly above where anyone expected even me, which is people, were saying in the beginning of the year, that my numbers are completely ridiculous. But but there we go there, we go it's interesting, the least num the least numbers are actually coming down, and this was these numbers that are 300 5 308.

These were 241 000 or they're about uh for q3. So that is a ridiculous jump because obviously they don't include production in the new factories, so the new uh, the new numbers, are going to be coming up over here. We're going to sort of refresh this thing every now and then and see if that comes up, but anyway, let's just jump back in um. What are the things that that we really really want to know got five minutes? One is what's happening with the two new factories.

That's like going to be the question that everyone really really wants to know. Apparently the number one question in uh questions being submitted to tesla is nothing to do with that. The number one question is: are they going to do a stock split because apparently, everyone's really interested in stock splits? I don't know if retail investors have suddenly got very interested in buying options or what it or what the reason is but uh. Presumably, the vast majority of retail investors who are asking for a stock split can buy fractional shares anyway, which seems to make it irrelevant people just get very obsessed with these things.

I don't know if you guys are watching like tell me in the comment in in the live chat like. Why does everyone care about it? So much i mean it makes it. It makes a big talking point, but but there we go all right any interesting. I can't see any questions or any any interesting points so far, uh yeah, all right, yeah lots of parts of the world.

You can't buy fractions sure, but the sort of the the the part of the world where the big money is in investing in terms of where people are putting putting the relatively you know the things that should be driving the share price and, in any case retail Investors don't drive any of it anyway, right uh, so so that makes it irrelevant anyway, so we were in the previous. In the previous update, there was um a very strong kind of message that production in the two new factories should be starting in austin and berlin. Should be starting before the end of last year with first deliveries either just before or just the beginning of this year, and that obviously did not happen and there are two different things going on. So with the berlin factory um, there has been like um further bureaucracy, so there's one side of the bureaucracy, which is the government kind of delaying permits, etc.

But then there's been an ongoing lawsuit with subsequent lawsuits by local environmental group, which is saying that there is an issue with water uh. The factory is gon na be using too much water, although apparently they're gon na be using about 200 times less water than the coal mining plant, uh pretty much right next to it or whatever. Apparently it is a non-issue, but there is a court case. I think it's scheduled for like mid february.

I can't remember that date - uh somebody knows 12th, 14th february, or something like that. So it's probably unlikely that we're going to be seeing anything coming out of that until at least that is a result, but with austin we don't really know. We've seen like lots of pictures in the last few days, uh that i'm going to be talking about um elon's, been kind of tweeting like has been driving around the factory and the cyber truck and all that stuff. So um it'd, be, i i think the most the most interesting thing is: when are they going to be starting production? There elon did promise um that, like they had the big party with the berlin factory, when that was opening they're going to be doing a party like that in texas, as well to celebrate the opening of that factory and uh.

Here we are right. The end of january, and still absolutely nothing and uh yeah i've been scouring the permits thing and since they got issued all those permits for the various parts of the factory at the body, shop, etc, um, which was a few weeks ago now. I haven't really heard anything else come through, so i'm not sure if uh like what the situation is, there that'll be one really interesting thing too, find out: okay, um, what else we've got three minutes. Um.

One thing i think, they'll be quite interesting, is probably one of the most boring pieces in these reports, and that is i'm just curious if they begin to begin actually kind of updating stuff that hasn't been related to menu. So, for example, they have a spreadsheet. I'm going to show you just one second, then a spreadsheet over here uh. This is the q3 report by the way, don't get too excited uh, there's a q3 now especially over here, where they like show you where the factories are, and they kind of have this.

Like greater than 450 000 for shanghai, that's been there, even though the fact is producing at significantly over that they're producing like 840 000 plus capacity at the moment um. So i'm wondering, if they're going to begin updating some of this, but if they are, are they going to begin updating anything down here as well? What is this future product? Are they going to talk about? This elon did promise that when he comes on he's going to be actually talking about the um, the the the product map that like what are they planning to do and that's been quite interesting. Is it just going to provide more clarity on the stuff that we already know like is uh? Are they accelerating cyber trucks, because apparently uh some rumors are that the giga presses for the cybertron production are being installed or are installed over in austin? I don't know how true that is, um, and i don't know if you've seen pictures we'll have a look at them in a minute. Um they've pro they've been they've, been sort of like these leaks that i think were not really leaks.

They were just gon na the very intentional leaks of the new cyber truck and new cyber design seems very like it's very similar in its overall guys, but it's definitely smaller and it's definitely more uh. Like practical, it's got mirrors, it's got slightly different. You can see he's got like fog lights that have been built into the front where the previous one didn't. I didn't see anyone else really talk about that.

Um there's been a bunch of stuff like that. We'll discuss that uh, but first, let's go through the numbers and, let's see, if that comes through um. Has anyone got sasha loves coffee, yeah. I'm on t, though, because it's late, it's 9 p.m.

Over here and okay. Oh, have we got data? No, it's i'll change! I still haven't, got it uh i'll i'll, open it up as soon as soon as i've got it. Um the the truck looks interesting. I've got i've got one on order, but i'm not sure, like i'm not sure if it's ever gon na come to the uk, which is where i'm based in case you're not familiar uh, because because the cyber truck uh might not quite pass the uk and european Laws on, like you know not killing pedestrians.

By being a steel, a hard steel body it'd be interesting to see what, because, obviously, when they first presented it uh there wasn't the same sort of level consideration for crumple zones and stuff. That's probably the biggest issue that uh that i have with kind of feasibility, but but let's see what they say because uh i can't still nothing where. Where are the results? You want the results in case you haven't been following: uh tesla's price has been um when when when, when the fed announced that you know publish their press release, which is what all the news channels were reading uh all the shares went up, and then everyone read What they actually said in the actual thing it was the same with me. I saw the press release on cbc.

I was like yeah great, this sounds good and then i actually read what they wrote and, oh, my god, like very uh, unclear lack of direction. Lack of certainty, lack of any kind of like specifics. Oh, we will be increasing the rate and then the q a came, and that was even worse. I didn't catch some of it because i was uh busy, uh, putting kids to sleep and things fun.

Things like that, but but it appears that questions around like how much you're gon na be doing when you're gon na be doing we're not answered particularly well um. So there we go and and and the problem is, if we're going to be seeing seven and a half cent inflation uh when the the january numbers come in mid-feb um like what are they going to do then do another uh yeah? Well, we'll wait uh, because we only had no point two percent increase for jan, because largely energy prices were down year and year so significantly for the december numbers january. Numbers are up on oil and gas, um, relatively speaking, still nothing. Normally.

This deck turns up pretty quick, so um, i'm not sure why it's not there. All right, i should probably move somebody should have told me, i'm like. I only have half my face in the picture. Uh.

Let me just put the camera on while uh, while i'm trying to refresh um yeah. If you haven't been following, like the last few days, people are anticipating uh the rates going up. People are concerned, uh all the stocks are going down. I do find it quite entertaining because the sort of broad brush approach - that's being applied, um themes seems incredible uh.

It seems incredible because so i i bought a little bit um. I was talking. We have a little discord with a few channel members and we were discussing it. I bought a little bit earlier today, uh before all the shenanigans started before all the fun and games three dollar eps.

That's pretty that's pretty ambitious. I am not expecting three dollars. Eps somebody's saying in there in the chat uh i i 2.80. I would be delighted with if it's above 2.80 um we're doing good.

I think 2.82, if i had to guess, would be sort of my very good number. Although the energy is probably going to be not quite there, and if it is, i'm not even like it's the automotive revenue that i'm particularly interested in really, i think to see now the automated revenue is um uh. What was it like? The wall street estimate for uh total revenue is 17 billion. I'm estimating 15.6 for auto 17.8 17.9 total um, we still haven't, got any any uh updates guys.

I i don't know what's happening, i don't know where the numbers are um somebody's asking. Is there a disc? I i have a i've recently started doing a patreon and channel membership for anyone who's interested in talking about investing and stuff like that uh. So it's just a discord uh that is available to everyone who joins through that uh. It's quite small.

It's just us chatting chatting random stuff about investing in there all right. Let's have a look, let's let let me put this screen on so that everyone can see it's very it's a lot of a lot of people here. That's fantastic! 27. 2.70, like what do people think on uh on the revenue side, anyone got any any guesstimates before they come out um.

I think on tesla guidance, there's, probably not going to be a huge amount, because obviously it's the annual report as well. As i know, it's the end of q4 um, i think, on the guidance tesla is always very caging, they're, always going to say that they're expecting 50, and it may well be true now that the start of the two new factories has been delayed slightly the ramp Up is probably going to be a little bit slower through the year. Oh here we go here, we go. Let's go come on failed to load, i think i'll go come on.

Is anyone else having the same issue what's going on? I think too many people are trying tesla's broken. Ah dear tessa, nobody can see oh yeah, just like ted gremlin, i'm guessing there's a lot of people that are who are very, very interested 254 wow where's the letter one. Second, let me just try to get um. Is there a link in here? No okay! I need to sign up to that at some point and let's try to get the document out still not so is it if anyone if anyone has a link to something that is working? That would be quite neat.

Let me just turn this off and see. If i can find it somewhere else, stock crashing 2.54, that is interesting um. What happened there wow after hours, tesla is down to 909 dollars. That is pretty spectacular.

It'd be interesting to see why it's 2.54, like what it like, because has there been a lot of just expenditure that is a one-off related to the 2d factory, starting something else that isn't in the cab gains or some other cash flow item. I'm not seeing the report yet so. Oh here we go, i've got it. I've got it here.

We go. Let's look at it all right here. We go so uh margin. First, 30.6, good, automated revenue! 15.9! That's that's! That's really good! I was expecting maybe fifteen point.

Six to fifteen point: seven - maybe fifty-five straight. This is good. I was telling people this is right at the beginning, so 17.8 was my total, the total drop, so energy um, i think, didn't, didn't do very much, which is which is probably going to be one of the the negative outcomes of this report. Uh by the looks of it, um adjusted margin over here on ebitda dropped a little bit but not much.

I've got 205 on diluted gap and 254 and diluted non-gaap, and so it's obviously a step up, but it's above wall street expectations, but it's not sort of in the range where some of the more optimistic forecasts were um. Oh sorry, sorry wait! A sec bottom right. Okay, sorry, i'm gon na go full screen. That's my bad! I was in the way, sorry all right so um in terms of kind of uh, some of the other high level things.

Regulatory credits are still within 300 million uh. Let's have a look um for the year. Let's we'll look at all that later. Let's look at some of the stuff further down uh in the p l on the balance sheet.

All right here we go so um total automatic rate revenue, just under 16 billion and energy storage dropped. So this is th. This is a bummer because normally q4 is when tesla actually banks a reasonable amount like um on the storage side, because people are spending money and there's a lot of news coming out. So it looks like what elon was saying about prioritization for the car business is exactly what's happening.

I don't know if you can see this but uh. This is the energy line over here uh, so we saw it drop and because of so many valuations are basing um uh but basing like energy or or some other elements um as a big thing, um, that's a bit disappointing, uh to some degree uh, even though The car number the car sale numbers are good. Let's look at the balance sheet. Is there anything interesting what's happening with cash? Cash is up uh, so that's good uh not being what's happening with debt uh they repaid a little bit, not much so we're 5.2 billion um down from 6.4 uh.

Is it people wondering? Are they going to be accelerating, paying that off down to zero they're? Obviously, going to be taking their sweet time, it looks like probably maybe, through the end of this year, we're going to be getting rid of the deadline um all together, uh the bitcoin line has been unchanged. So obviously there's not been selling or anything. So there's not been any re-evaluation, although in practice they probably have slightly less bitcoin than that now maybe um one point: this 1.26 billion number over here, that's how much bitcoin they have that's their digital assets. Net um we're going to read the whole report in just a second uh.

What else do i want to see um? I think that's about it, they're going to have a look at all the summary and all the highlights and everything else what's happening with the stock. Uh, let me just open it on this screen, so i can see uh god, it's nine. It's still! 909! No! 890 wow! Oh my god. What is happening? Uh? Let me just open open the post market.

887. Oh my god, people are not liking. It. Let's see.

Let's see what it is because i like i get that the earnings per share, i think, but the revenue numbers look all right. The energy business is slow, they kind of said it so wow um by the way, if you're just joining we've just got the results. We're going to be reading through the results in uh fall we're going to be going through the details. We're then gon na be listening in to the actual update and the elon musk's gon na be on the update, they're gon na be doing the product roadmap.

They're gon na be sharing a bunch of other information, and that's gon na be happening. Uh in 1 hour 20 from now, so that's going to be 10, 30 p.m, uk time or 5, 30 p.m, eastern uh, eastern standard time or whatever. It is one hour 20.. So uh all right, but is there anything i'm missing? No cash operating cash flow, less capex is uh 2.8 billion q4 in terms of one and a half billion increase, no cash and cash equivalents.

We just saw that when we were looking at the cash position: 17.6 billion profitability, 2.6 billion gaap operating income, uh 2.3 gaap net income, uh 2.9 billion non-gaap net net income, q4 30.6 gap, automotive gross margin, uh 29.2 percent uh x credits in q4. Um. I mean these numbers on a high level like they're right. The margins on the automotive are strong, despite despite the numbers uh ramping up.

So it's not like they're continuing to manufacture guys at the same price. That's good record vehicle deliveries. Yeah. We already knew that um annualized vehicle production rate of over 1.22 yeah, so about 1.23 million and q4 good.

Let's read the summary: 2021 was a breakthrough year for tesla. There should be no longer. There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles with our deliveries uh. Once again, i'm just going to zoom in, and you can see it with our deliveries up 87 and 2001, we achieved the highest quality, quarterly operating margin among all volume or oems, based on later valuable data yeah by a little margin as well 30.6 percent gross is, Is pretty cool all right? An operating margin is what fourteen point seven uh.

I can't remember whatever it is um. Additionally, we generated five and a half billion of gatnet income and five point: zero billion of free cash flow in 2001, after spending six and a half billion to build out new factories on other capital expenditures um. So so that's pretty good. Uh there's been spending a lot of money on building factories and they've still got a surplus after that right, right, good uh.

Well, after a successful 2021, our focus shifts to the future. We aim to increase our production as quickly as we cannot only through ramping production. New factories in austin and berlin, but also by maximizing output from our established factories in fremont and shanghai, being see if they can squeeze much more out of fremont, because even their model s model x, production is still running like relatively slow compared to what it was. Even running before they stopped to revamp to the new versions of those um, we believe competing as an market will be determined by the ability to add capacity across the supply chain and ramp production.

Full self-driving software remains one of our primary areas of focus over time. A software related profit should accelerate our overall profitability. This is very much something that i believe in, as in my models as well. More importantly, fsd is a key component to improve automobile uh automobile safety, as well as further accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy through higher utilization of our vehicles um, while 2021 was a defining year for a company, we believe we're just at the very early stage Of our journey, thank you for being part of it, so very kind of neutral, there's not much not much in there.

Let's get three numbers in a bit more detail just before i do there's a few comments that are sort of related to this as well. Um microsoft announced really quite decent, really strong results. Just printing cash growing doing what they do and they dropped as well. Um people saying everything dropped to the end, so i'm looking and tesla is rebounding.

Slightly i mean rebound is a strong word, 896 dollars uh. What's the overall stock market is down a little bit in post post uh market closed trading, but not that much all right. Let's look at the numbers overall, then uh. Can you see these? Yes, you can see these okay i'll, be in the bottom right i'll move over here, so you can actually see my face rather than just my headphone.

I need to replace these. These are like one i'm getting bits of headphone in my ears, all the time at the moment, all right automotive revenues just under 16 billion uh, year-on-year 71 percent, which is phenomenal because um the shanghai factory is uh now, probably at sort of a full pelt and We're not going to be seeing an increase in production there for a little while, but they have started. They have they're building an extension to that factory um at the moment and that extension to the factory is going to be complete in april. I think maybe at the end of april, so i don't know how long it takes from that to then ramp up.

But if that rumor has it, if they're currently running at 140 000 a year, uh sort of capac, sorry, 840, 000, yet uh a year capacity. That probably means that they can ramp that up to over a million uh, 1.2 million, potentially so be interesting to see how quickly they can ramp that, given the factory's, already operating weather will have an impact on the production in q2q q3 as they're shifting the layout And changing the internal structure, uh that'll be interesting. Um regulatory credits they're going to be going down to zero at some point: they're. Still there sorry, 300 million uh regulatory credits, automated gross profit, uh 30.6 percent, uh very, very strong, unbelievable numbers uh.

Nobody in the industry even comes close, so on the car front, we're all good um total revenues. Well, good total uh gap. Great gross margin is up quite considerably. So that means like there's uh, it's gon na be something further in the cash flows when we're gon na be looking at.

Why why the earnings per share is not quite where some people maybe expected it to be. Let's have a look: okay operating expenses up, but um growing, slower than revenues, good income from operations up, because it's non-linear um i'll, probably imagine 14.7 very strong in line with the q3 numbers. I mean that is an insane operating margin, uh for any business, let alone like a hardcore manufacturing, car business, so uh. What else we've got here, adjusted ebitda, four point: one billion uh and they just leave like the diamond - has 23.1 percent um.

Okay. So i think we're going to be having a look at through the detailed tables further down. I'm not really seeing anything particularly disappointing share price back up to 920, like did people just like wait for the release and they're like it's released, sell and then like. Let's read the report like what does it say in report? Wait, it's quite good.

The numbers are quite good. Buy back, buy back like what what's happening. We're 922 dollars again like we're gon na, be just bouncing right back up to the same level. We were like.

We were at 940 700, like whatever 40 uh, just just around, where the market 940 just around, where the market's dropped. This is pretty pretty pretty funny. I think that this quarter, the actual um conversation later on with elon musk. It's probably going to be the more interesting bit than this presentation that we're going through uh, just simply because it's the road map in the future and like the date of some of the things that are going to be more important than numbers in here.

So that's! That's where it's going to be really really really interesting, um. Thank you very much for everyone joining it's amazing. I've never had as many people in a live stream before it's really really really cool. Thank you for joining all right.

Let's go continue. Looking through the numbers. Um financial summary for the year um, it's just it's it's i mean it's. It's all good.

We've got like 70 percent uh, also basic revenue and total revenue growth uh over 70, that is phenomenal um operating expenses growing slower good. We, having like all the numbers here, are perfectly good we'll get to the details further down. Okay, let's look at the financial summary. Total revenue grew 65 percent year in neon q4 to 17.7 billion uh year in year, revenue was impacted by the following items: growth and vehicle delivery, greater than other parts of the business see.

This is the bit that i'm not quite so sure on based on the numbers that we've seen so far or so like the energy business, doesn't seem to be doing very much growing in the same sort of way as the car business, but anyway probability uh. Let me just zoom in so. You can see this a bit better: okay, uh, uh profitability, our operating income improved to 2.6 billion in q4, compared to the same period last year, resulting in a 14.7 operating margin. This profit level was reached while incurring sbc expense attribute attributable to the 2018 ceo award of 245 million in q4 uh yeah.

So i don't. If you're not aware of what was happening. Um elon did a whole load of uh share, um option exercising uh share, acquiring uh the technical in december and obviously uh when elon goes and acquires a share. It is a de facto kind of uh like financially negative move for the company because he is buying exercising their shares at six dollars, which is what the agreement was when the share price right now is a little bit more than it's still a little bit more Than six dollars you'll be glad to know it's 906 in the current live trading uh, but but that, but that's what this is uh kind of talking about over here.

If anyone has any interesting questions, i keep trying to check if there's any interesting points being made. Interesting questions, i'm not seeing it all right, so um, driven by the final two operational milestones become probable. Year-On-Year operating income was primarily impacted by the phoning items. Further per vehicle cost reduction yeah.

This is continuing. There's been news recently of further reductions in the cost of production. They are optimizing. The production of, i think, like some of the suspension parts, some other bits uh, the giga presses, are coming online, more and more for more production lines um.

So i think i think, like, however, ridiculous sounds they're going to be continuing. Um growth in vehicle deliveries, improved profitability of automotive leasing and service and other business um increase in sg, adrian, mainly by 340 million payroll tax on twitter. There's a lot of attacks right. I think raw material, commodity logistics and expedite costs increased, warranty and recall cost related to a specific batch of vehicles.

Uh, that's not that there was a few uh recalls towards the end of last year, uh and and there's more stuff going on actually in q1 as well, there's been some recourse in australia, uh some other stuff that i've been hearing. So so there are issues as you're skating. These issues going to become more and more common and more and more frequent and more and more just run in the middle um, so quarter um and cash and cash equivalence increased sequentially by one and a half billion. That's actually a lot given that this was the last quarter of uh that probably had a lot of non-cap uh, capex style expenditures related to launching these factories and getting them uh.

That's good because it hasn't been increasing. We're gon na look at that in a sec. It hasn't been growing that that much like in the last quarter, um driven mainly by free cash flow, 2.8 billion partially offset by net debt and finance lease repayment, so yeah, so the cash has gone up, but the debt has gone up. Uh uh gone down by 1.5 billion and it's looking like it's going to be um out for the rest of the year, so a total debt.

This is the point i'm talking about it before i'm reading it. Okay, i told you that's exciting vehicle and energy product finance has fallen uh to just 1.4 billion at the end, excluding vehicle and energy product financing. Okay, that's good! So that's like in terms of real, like company debt, that's very low for a company that is taking. You know this is like less than 10 of their quarterly revenue and that's very strong.

Okay production numbers um. We saw them uh 308, so we've got slightly more accurate numbers than we saw before so 308. 650 uh. So it's a slightly higher, i think than it was, and so is this number i think let me just see, let me see what did i say yeah.

So 650 - and this was eight three or five forty yeah - this is the same, but this is this: one's 50 higher uh, so look at just 50 more cars than they said when they counted them a bit better um. This is this is interesting. Look at this um total end of quarter operating lease vehicle count jumped considerably over here, but 12 000 um. Given that the reason it's interest obviously has been uh rising about that much uh every quarter, but the percentages dropped.

So the total volumes went up so much that, even though the percentage of the new sales that are being leased dropped um, this number is still continuing to go up. Um four days of global vehicle inventory, so the demand. So when people are talking about like how much demand there is for tesla vehicles, like is there actual, is that is there enough? Demand like like? Are the new factories going look at this? They have four days of supply so like this isn't probably a very good measure anyway, because this doesn't really mean very much sure you can buy from inventory at times, but generally, if you're like ordering new the waiters several months, um at best um. But now look look at look at these numbers.

This is where the disappointment is. This is maybe what's contributing 913 dollars at the moment. Um solar deployed 85 megawatt, not not that anyone really cares about. So i don't care in my models, no matter how optimistic a solar assumption.

I make it's almost irrelevant to long-term it's so commoditized margins et cetera, i'm not seeing it personally, maybe i'm wrong, but i'm not excited, but the storage bit um. That, like i thought this number was going to be substantially higher than q2 and q3 and it isn't right so um look you're in year, minus 38, so compared to that compared to the previous quarter. So that to me is the one thing that is a little bit disappointing. It's a problem because, when we're going to be having this um presentation later in about an hour and five minutes, we're having a presentation, the um, the questions for the q, a i've already been submitted and obviously like nobody's going to be asking uh.

This alert to me this is a really important question like what's happening over here. Uh 914 dollars at the moment share price all right. Let's, let's keep reading um, uh store and service locations have not gone up much at all uh. This is disappointing, given the speed at which they're producing cars uh.

This is very, very slow growth over here, uh mobile service fleet, as well, so in terms of servicing these cars and producing and providing like sufficient um sufficient capacity. Because there's been a few negative news stories recently about this as well about not being able to get uh to get into fixed things and stuff. So so this growth is slow and this growth is slow too. So supercharger stations are growing, 36 percent um 35.

Um. Remember this is year and year, year and year, if you're, looking kind of like quarter and quarter if you're, comparing this to the rate at which the number of cars is growing, so we had like whatever is 2 2.2, whatever his million cars at the end of The year and and that we made what we i didn't make, did you make the money? Why are you saying we, the tesla made um 305 306 000 cars. So we're talking, like you, know, 15 of the of the existing cars just like in the last quarter. Um, if we are going to be like, if we, if we're going to be really really uh, hitting some interesting numbers, we need to begin upping uh, the rate to which supercharger station connections are being built, especially given the fact that um in the last quarterly update, Not last one actually the one before that, because the last one it was just zachary kirkhon, there was no elo mossman in the previous, oh was it whenever he was.

It was either at the annual shareholder meeting or at the q2 results. Elon was saying that they want to go and open up their supercharger network to a whole bunch of other companies where people be able to pay to use the tesla superchargers rather than you know, electrified america and all the other rubbish that doesn't work. Um and they're. Apparently, testing it in, like denmark and norway, or something and they're going to need to ramp this up a lot more quickly if they want to be using anyone else, uh, let me say: okay yeah.

We share your part owner, so we is correct: okay, okay, uh! There's one way to look at it: i guess all right um, let's just say so, annual numbers, let's skip them. Let's look at this and high production is still over 450 000.. So in the last quarter the annual run rate is 840 and they're building an extension. So it seems like odd, like what like given.

This is a relatively important document why we do not nothing's changed here by the way, i'm just looking at it as like future product race, development development. Oh, this has changed. I mean not that you wouldn't expect it to change, but the equipment test equipment test uh. This was different last time around it was construction.

So that's good news. It kind of suggests that we're now past the construction phase uh. So, let's see um cybertron uh is still in development, so that indicates that cybertroop is not quite as close as like. You know.

Some people possibly hoped i mean not that it was never but tesla semi. The this is an issue. There was um a tweet and a an interview with the ceo of pepsi, who said they're expecting deliveries of the tesla semi at the end of last year, um and they they were getting like a batch of 100 made. At some point.

I don't think that's happened. They have got the permit and installed some uh of the special semi superchargers at their facility, and there has been a lot of sightings been like some of those drone videos of the semi being tested. The semi is currently being produced in the nevada factory. So if you didn't know that they have a big factory in nevada, it was actually one of the biggest factories in the world when it was first constructed, it's it's where they manufacture batteries and others, they don't make actual cars there other than the semi um, so That seems to be where they're making them at the moment um if you're just joining uh by the way, uh the the call, the call where we're gon na be hearing from elon, musk and uh, the team and the q a and all that is starting in One hour we're just going through all the details at the moment and reading the updates so that we are aware of what's happening and the call is going to be in one hour: um at 10, 30 p.m.

Uk time at uh, 5, 30 p.m. Eastern time, 4 30 p.m. Texas, i think, is that right, uh, whatever, let's read, let's read: um the the graphs. Look good market share, uh tesla vehicles by region, uh all the graphs look good uh.

Finally, we're seeing europe pick up; that's good, all right, uh! In q4, we saw continuation below supply chain, transportation, labor and other manufacturing challenges, uh, limiting our ability to run our factories at full capacity. Um us, california and texas builds up model y started in late 2021 in gigafactory, texas. After final certification of austin made uh model y, we plan to start the ring at uh to customers, so not conclusive as to what that means, uh after like when is after, and when is the certification but um the berlin factories produced quite a few uh model. Wise that they were allowed by a special temporary permanent produce 2000 model wise for testing purposes, they're not allowed to sell them to customers, but they can be using like crash tests around europe and different jurisdictions.

They can be used for transporting people around the factory, putting everything in showrooms other kind of stuff. So if you saw those pictures, there's been like a bunch of them in the snow in berlin, um there's not quite as many pictures coming out of texas production, but let's see, let's see what they said: they're called china shanghai production of uh, both model 3 and Model y continue to ramp further throughout 2021.. Local production is essential for reducing the cost per vehicle and improving the stability of the global supply chain. Gigafactory shanghai continues to be a main export hub.

Well, the only export hub at the moment, because there's only two factories and free monitors not exporting, except for i think, maybe some tiny volumes for i'm not sure. I think pretty much. All export comes from shanghai at the moment, which is why the first month of the quarter, they don't sell any china they're putting them on chips and the last month the quarter they sell chinese customers only pretty much if you're, not following share price tanked. It's 913.55 people are disappointed because people only read the earnings per share.

This is this is so incredible because people just look at the earnings for shareholders. They're like it's. Okay, it's not as good as some people thought it would be. Okay, bang.

The numbers are great. Um, the overall revenue numbers are great. The margins are great. What happens down at the bottom in terms of cost during a highly turbulent time, supply chain issues during the you know, the period just before the 2d factories launched? I think it's relatively, not as impossible, but anyway everyone else thinks people think so.

Okay, uh equipment, testing europe, berlin, uh equipment testing through the vehicle production process started late 2021.. We are still in the process of finalizing the manufacturing permit from local authorities the bit that we covered earlier we're going to come to that, probably in a second as well, which will allow starter and german made vehicles in europe. These first vehicles will be built using two 170 cells, so this is critical because people are expecting - potentially, maybe both the berlin and the austin factory to start producing uh using the 4680 cells. But the interesting thing is look.

This sentence is not present in the texas update. Does that mean that the texas model wise you're, going to start being produced with four 680s uh, while the berlin ones are two 170s in case you're not aware 217, the small batteries that are the standard and automotive, but a lot of other industries as well? They're sort of like not too far away from what they um uh from they're, not too far away from uh what an aaa battery is, or whatever like sort of like, not not that big but um. But if you, but the 4680s they're like more. Like a can almost size uh, they don't give you a huge boost.

They give you like some efficiency um, depending on which source you use, maybe as much as 15 or even 20 in some uh optimistic cases, but they also cost less because batteries are such a big uh part of the um, the cost base. 20. 25. Less cost is going to be quite significant, so it'd be interesting to see.

If uh we hear anything on that uh. Let me write that down. Let's actually um four six eighties in austin, question mark okay, what else um it? What? Why are people so obsessed with the inviting people on the show uh, i'm a lone wolf, all right, autopilot? Fourth of driving fsd, the team continued to iterate on fsd beta software, releasing seven updates through the throughout the quarter uh. The latest update, i think it's 10.9.

I keep watching the videos trying to see like what the differences are, what the updates are. Obviously i i don't have a tesla, so i don't live in the us either. So i wouldn't be. I won't be able to use it even if i did but um the quality seems to be coming on leaps and bounds.

Still, i think, in city driving. Although a lot of the videos are like very bravado - and you know, tesla's my biggest position, but i think in city driving, there's still quite a lot of stuff to figure out sort out, optimize and prove um, because people like posting something. Oh look like i. I didn't touch the the steering wheel for the whole journey.

They didn't post, obviously the ones where they did um but um. Anyway, we continued uh. We successfully increased the number of fsdb to vehicles from a couple thousand and q3 to nearly sixty thousand vehicles, and yet sixty thousand is a lot with fsd because they obviously they started off with the scoring thing where they had a hundred scores first getting in, and So on and we're working it down um, but yeah uh, that's a lot 60! 000 by the end of q4. So i'm guessing.

That must be growing quite a lot at the moment. All right, um vision, only version model, 3 model y score of superior and collision avoidance functionality and top city, so yeah, so tesla continues to getting to get all the different awards for being pretty. Ah, what have they done here? What is this chair? Uh vehicle delivery, growth, tesla versus all the others. This is good.

This wasn't in yeah. Look at this. This is new. This is like this is great.

I don't know if you're aware, but um there was a news article recently where somebody where uh it was like gm and tesla are going to be competing uh. You know. The competition between german taylor continues: gm uh sold 26. I think vehicles in q4 26, not 26 026 vehicles, evs in q4, tesla sold 308 000 uh a little bit different um gm is optimistically aiming for a million cars being produced by 2020 by the end of 2025, and they think that will put them as the Number one seller of cars because mary, you led - and you know like all that, but the funny thing is that um tesla on an annualized basis is making 1.23 million right now, as at the end of q4.

So by 2025, they're gon na start making one million and they're going to be number one. So the only way it can happen realistically is if the market for evs is really tiny like. Maybe it's only two million cars total and they will steal all of tesla's market share. That might happen, i'm not sure what the likelihood is, but anyway uh anyway.

Okay, let's, let's keep reading. Let's keep reading okay vehicle software. In q4, we released a new user interface featuring a customizable, app launcher, simplified controls, menu and support for a dark mode appearance, it's so important it. It has to be in the q4 update that there is now dark mode.

That is incredible. How useful um additional features included? I mean my jeep, i drive a jeep and my jeep has dark mode on on the menu like it. I can turn it dark. I can turn it light, so i mean that is pretty phenomenal, though, that you can now turn it dark.

Additional features included a live view of the car's blind spot when turn signals are active, editable, navigation, waypoints and a host of new games, entertainment and audio features see the moment they begin talking about things like games and stuff like that, and like all of that, whenever Elon tweets about something like that: the stock goes down uh. I don't think. That's probably the reason today but um, it's cool for the kids at the back. I guess but um do they need.

Like i don't know, i don't know you tell me what you think. All right earlier in the quarter, we added a live view of the cars cameras to the mobile app when sentry mode is active, yep all very useful battery. Okay, this this is going to be important. What's the graph these graphs, i love this.

This graph is like you guys, suck look at this. This is the great look. The growth is negative, they're all negative for the whole of 2020 and they're, like oh, oh, q2. No, we're back down! This is funny uh.

This is what they didn't do. This chat before - and this is just like this - is pretty epic they're, just rubbing it in in their face. Sorry, i'm i'm looking, i'm looking, i'm looking at this graph over here at the moment, okay, vehicle delivery growth. What's what's this um gap operating margin, okay, capital premium, okay, go for pretty much unless they're now saying, based on the data that is available that they reckon there might be.

So i think that's the reason why this chart has appeared. The initial they're kind of saying that now everyone's going to say tesla is a great stock. Tesla is going to be, like you know, highly profitable at some point in the future, blah blah blah they're still in some ways early they only broke even relatively recently. You know two years or whatever um but they're kind of saying.

Look we're now actually on operating profit basis, more profitable than all the other leading car manufacturers uh, which is interesting that they decided to go put that chart in there um. I i can't tell like i love how they differentiate between they're like they're. All the same, just call them all gray, it doesn't matter. The point is that we are more over here the same here, because i can't tell who who this is who's released their results anyway, let's read: let's read this: what we're here for reading okay earnings call is in 50 minutes people keep asking 50 minutes still got A while got ta be talking points before we get there as well.

The battery power train and manufacturing manufacturing is tesla's critical, core competency, while evs were often deemed structurally unprofitable due to expensive batteries. We were convinced that manufacturing innovation, purpose built vehicles and factories would solve cost concerns. In q3, 2021, the last widely reported quarter tesla achieved the highest operating margin across all volume. Ons cost per vehicle dropped to 36 thousand dollars, approximately in both q3 and q4 2021, which is phenomenal.

Obviously, economies of scale coming in the manufacturing is ramping up and the costs are coming down and the margins that are already ridiculous, becoming even more ridiculous. We believe our current project, including large castings structural battery pack, for success and many others, should help us continue to minimize the production cost uh yeah uh like what is it 25 percent of the cost of the car, is the battery pack reportedly and like auxiliary thing. So the 4680 cells taking 20 out of that is going to be noticeable. It's a four or five percent margin right.

There um like it because i think, like 20 times, 20 uh four percent, like that's, not bad, if you can squeeze four percent on on the margin, that's that's good um and obviously the castings are uh. Apparently, some chinese manufacturers are beginning to start work on castings. As well, but a lot of the european manufacturers and uh big us ones are opposed. I think there was an interview with the bmw guy.

The ceo, where you're saying that tesla don't get it like like casting a car, is, is just not the way that they want to go. It's just so weird, and it's a case where you know if you have a factory set up that makes cars in a very particular kind of way, and you have all your workers that are trained to work in a very particular way. It is. People are underestimating how difficult it is to go and switch from doing the you know the regular kind of like production they're doing now to building these completely different cars where everything about the cars, everything internals, everything about how they function is fundamentally different sure they all Have wheels and they all have suspension and all that kind of cool stuff, but i think people are massively underestimating how different uh, because, like these guys, are just not willing to change, and these charts are showing what's going to be happening with them.

So um they're not growing um, their lunch is being eaten. All right. Energy storage, energy storage deployments increased by thirty two percent. The uranium 2021, mainly driven by strong mega pack deployments as demand, remains substantially above capacity.

So this is the issue. The growth here is not stunted because, like they don't know what what to do the growth doesn't, because they only have limited supply of batteries and components um and because of the limited supply of components and batteries. They have prioritized cars um and they are apparently continued to protest guys. So it may be that, towards the end of this year, um the energy storage uh is going to begin ramping up.

This is certainly an area where, potentially, there are quite high profits to be made in the long term, so we'll see we'll see what elon has to say about that or whoever's talking at the time. We are in the process of building a dedicated mega pack factory to address the growing demand. So i don't know if this refers to the california. They have a factory in california.

What's it called like something road like it's, it's not far from from their existing facilities. Where they've been scaling production of um, four six eighties uh, i don't know if the 468 is going to be then assembled well in nevada or somewhere else at the building, uh dedicated facility or some other place. If somebody knows uh, please uh, please tell me but um, i don't know it'd be interesting because it's kind of like what is this dedicated, like obviously they have the solar and stuff like that over in buffalo and new york uh. I doubt that's gon na be so i don't know what that means.

Let's have a look, let's have a look at what they say. There's a child of energy policy, it's growing, but the numbers are low like if we're going to be seriously growing. We need some relatively very high jumps coming in the next few years: okay, solar, not particularly important, but let's read it anyway. Solid appointments were 345 megawatt in 2021, increasing by 68, year-on-year with cash loan purchases, accounting for nearly also deployments, so the roof deployments nearly tripled year-on-year and continued to gross the question in q4.

We're making further cost improvements, particular installation to increase energy profitability, um yeah um. Certainly pointing out uh case road facility in fremont, yeah uh, that's the one on that yeah uh forced to save 468 is apparently going to be built by by both panasonic and tesla. So uh. I open this news because i it came out some time ago.

A few days ago, panasonic is going to start producing from beginning of next year, mass production of 4 680 cells under license and tesla's going to be producing. I think, they're, basically trying to get as much capacity as possible as quickly as possible. Where is it um? All right, so this is another in 2021 services, another gross margin increase increased to minus 2.7 percent that doesn't really work the best performance in five years, nudging above breakeven and q4 2021, while used car sales remained strong.