Hey guys it's sasha and today's video is absolute. Gold tesla is committing huge accounting. Fraud and misleading investors says a wall street analyst by the name of gordon johnson, so a pretty big claim, and in this video i will share exactly what this complete failure of an analyst is claiming i'll then show you exactly why he is wrong how badly he Is wrong and why his statements are at the best misleading if you were a cynic, unlike me, you might think that actively suggesting that the fifth biggest company in the world is a fraud is a bad thing, because, if you're going to make that kind of suggestion, You know you would better be sure the likelihood is that elon, musk and tesla just don't care enough about gordon johnson's opinion to sue him on the back of this, but making ridiculous accusations is not going to reflect well on you as an analyst except well. As i mentioned already, gordon johnson has completely failed as an analyst.

During the biggest bull run in the history of the stock market. He has lost a ton of money because he prefers to believe in wild conspiracy theories that have zero merit. Instead of you know, actually doing any analysis, you can look him up on tip ranks. He is in the bottom, two percent of all the analysts, thousands of analysts on there, while the s p 500 returned 43 over the last two years, even including during that period.

The crash in march 2020, gordon johnson's, average return on his ratings in the same period is minus 28.8 percent and, as a result, he has a massive, zero out of five stars and tip ranks by the way. If you want to sign up to tip ranks, i have an exclusive 10 discount code in the description for either the premium or the ultimate tier. I have negotiated it so that i am essentially paying that discount for you out of my commission, so i hope you enjoyed. If you want it, i find it super useful to see what analysts are saying on tip ranks how they update their target prices.

Why they do it the stuff they say and when they do it, and it also lets you quickly, see the difference between analysts and the gordon johnsons. So if you want that special 10 discount feel free to use my link in the description as it's an affiliate link, you'll also help the channel out as well. Thank you so much for doing it all right. So, let's go through exactly what gordon johnson said.

A word of warning: it's a thread of 14 twitter posts of a verbal diarrhea, so this will take a minute okay, so last night, gordon johnson tweeted, this martin viejo. Could you help me out with something that is using reported data and estimates from trade test like it seems that the q421 deliveries you reported, have an unexplained 34.781 000 surplus? Okay, just before we read the rest, let me explain a couple of things. Martin vicar is the head of investor relations at tesla, so gordon is trying to get him to answer some questions on twitter, not a great start. Troy teslike is a twitter account that makes predictions on tesla sales volumes and hey.

I find the account interesting and sometimes useful, but this is just a random twitter account that makes forecasts. Please don't take this the wrong way. I have absolutely nothing against troy. He just happens to be the source that gordon johnson uses.

Gordon johnson seems to think that choice. Guesses are more accurate than tesla's owner sales data. On the 26th of october, troy tesla posted saying his forecast for q4 is 254 000 cars. I pointed out that that was way way lower than what i think it would come out at turns out.

Even i was seven percent off the final total, but the point is this is all guesswork anyway. Let's keep reading the gordon johnson thread. That is for your just reported q421 deliveries using the following methodology: a the experian numbers for tesla sales by month in the usa, plus b, troy tesla's numbers for rest of the world and canada plus c. The actual reported numbers for china and the eu tesla's reported deliveries in q, 221 and q.

321 were 11.2 000 8.4 000 higher respectively than the above method. Methodology implied well within the margin of error for troy's numbers, so we're three tweets in it, and so far gordon johnson has said that tesla's actual deliveries were higher than some people on twitter guessed. They might be some solid analysis right there, let's keep going yet in queue, 421, applying the same methodology, tesla's reported deliveries assuming china is seventy and a half thousand in december, which could be wrong where thirty four point: seven eight one thousand higher than the above methodology, Suggested this is not within the margin of error. Okay, let's pause here.

The seventeen and a half thousand number is the latest guess at tesla's child sales december, but the final data hasn't turned up, yet a lot of people are expecting it later. Today, however, gordon is now saying that the total was 35 000 out, which is apparently not within the margin of error, while 11 000 is definitely within the margin of error. Now, unlike gordon johnson, i actually studied mathematics at university, and i would be very curious to find out how you calculate the margin of error on the guess of a random twitter account and why being wrong by five percent. One quarter is statistically okay, but being run by ten percent on a different quarter is not okay, don't expect an answer, because it is patently obvious that gordon johnson has extremely limited understanding of basic massive statistics based on this twitter thread.

Okay. Furthermore, with respect to experience accuracy, as reported by automotive news in 2020, they estimated you delivered 200.561 000 cars in the us versus troy, tesla's estimate of 204 thousand i.e. They seem to be very accurate, oh and here's the links that support the below chart. So basically gordon is saying once upon a time.

Two different guesses were roughly the same. So therefore, those two guesses will definitely be right, all the time forever and ever in the future. So if i was to flip a coin and asked you to pick heads or tails, if you pick heads and the coin lands heads according to gordon johnson's logic, that means you're going to be right for every single coin toss in the future as well congrats. Now we get to the serious bit after this part - the accusation - let's read it so it seems similar to 2020.

Assuming experian is right. On 2021, the answer could be a tesla sold. Approximately 35 000 cars in a one-time fleet deal to hurt, yet the cars were not registered for insurance, i.e. How experian aggregates the us data and were counted as financially delivered in q421 and or b.

You may have over counted the number of cars delivered in q421 and or c. You disagree with the numbers reported by troy. That's like an experian the difference in the deliveries you reported versus the insurance data published by official sources and troy tesla's data show a big difference. I.E, tesla reported sales of 308.5 000 versus the data suggesting the number is closer to 273 819.

All right so gordon johnson says there are only three possible outcomes: let's go through them, one by one: a tesla sold 35 000 cars to hertz, but didn't register them for insurance. This could actually be the case if the cars are on non-commercial insurance deals. So if they sold them, they wouldn't show up in that experian data. If it is the case, then the entire twitter thread by gordon johnson is a massive waste of time, because it explains everything.

However, the deal with hertz was only signed in october and wait times on orders even at that point were already several months, so we are talking weights well into 2022 and elon musk confirmed at the time that hurst would get no preferential deal paying the same as Any customer and here's the thing: if you actually look at the numbers in any kind of debt, you can immediately see why this is highly improbable. Hertz only had 2.7 billion dollars in cash on the balance sheet in the last 10k form file with the sec. So, even if they bought the most basic spec model 3 cars only with minimal extras we're talking about 2 billion, that would cost hertz to buy those cars. Given that we're in the middle of pandemic and hurts have been financially struggling massively recently, it is pretty much impossible for them to have used virtually all of the cash they have to buy tesla's in the last two months, but sasha you are so dumb.

Of course, her didn't buy them at right; they leased them you're so wrong. Okay, if hertz bought 35 000 cars from tesla, that would be 11.8 of the total model. 3 model white cars sold in the quarter, but only 5 of the total number of cars that were sold were sold on release according to the data that tesla has published. Unless that's fraud too anyway, that's actually less than any of the recent quarters.

The number of cars being sold on lease has been dropping and remember that elon musk confirmed that hertz got no special deal on the pricing, so unfortunately no they aren't leasing them. Now it is possible that hurts borrowed money to finance the purchases. That's kind of the alternative option, but that would potentially put them into negative stockholder equity within the next one or two quarters, which is also pretty unlikely as something that a listed company would do knowingly so option b from gordon. You may have over counted the number of cars delivered in q421.

Yep gordon johnson is saying that the second option is that tesla committed fraud and reported false numbers overstating them by well over 10 percent. I guess, when you're documented, as one of the worst analysts in the world and you've been saying that tesla is a 30 stock, while it has gone up by thousands of percent. Nothing is off the table, including making completely baseless, quite serious accusations, but wait. There is also option c you dislike with the numbers reported by troy tez like an experian.

He would like the fifth biggest company in the world to explain to him why they disagree with a guest by somebody on twitter and a company that only reports on u.s insurance data, not car sales data and not any data outside the us. Okay in the rest of that thread, gordon, is using the numbers based from these two sources, as well as some auxiliary data from eu and chinese sources. That are a little bit more factual to infer why the q4 numbers must be wrong and i'm not going to go through the rest of that twitter thread in any great detail, because i just explained that both of the sets of numbers that he uses for his Entire argument are just estimates and guesses and in the case of experian, only even cover just one country. Here is the unfortunate truth for gordon and anyone else who might be slow on the uptake.

There is another option: option d, and that, unfortunately, is the correct one. No or or, and that's that's, just the option, an option d is this: tesla made and sold more cars than some random people on twitter guessed just like they do quarter after quarter after quarter and when a stock is consistently smashing all expectations, including any kind of Wall street consensus, you have two choices: you can invest in the company and reap the long-term benefits by earning returns of several thousands of percent, which has already happened and is continuing to happen, or you can write a drivel on twitter, accusing the company of fraud instead. Take your pick, which option you prefer if you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.