Housing and one name she's complaining well hello: there welcome back to another well fomc meeting. These are always actually really ridiculous and uh. Here's here's the way this is going to work first for the next 30 minutes, we'll look at the market, we'll determine potentially how the market is uh, starting to price in either fear or hedge or start even potentially offloading some hedges, which is an expectation that we Have today that could happen and uh, then we'll look at uh some prior issues that we believe will arise in this meeting. We have uh the following uh scenarios that could happen today and uh.

We are expecting either the following: a dovish cancellation of all tightening. I think that's about a one percent chance uh on the other extreme. We could hike and end the taper, so in other words, uh end the taper early uh, not like we expect in march and uh hike rates early. I think this is a one percent chance as well, but obviously it is a possibility uh.

We could uh end up uh in a situation where we have no hike now, but we do complete the taper. That is a possibility. I would give this about a five percent chance uh. Instead, the base case scenarios are between two choices and it's all going to come down to not the statement that comes out.

In fact, if you look on screen like right here, you see the federal reserve statement. Will be coming out in about 29 minutes at 11 a.m and then the fed q a will be coming up at this 11 30 section here and uh. What we're going to look for in the q a is guidance in terms of okay. So if we expect the taper to complete by march 16th, are you also going to hike rates march 16th? Presently 90 of the market believes the answer to that is yes, and we are pricing in one rate hike, however, markets could move slightly bearish if jerome powell suggests it is possible that we see a half point rate increase now, no matter what happens on january 26, Which is today march 16th will continue to be a massive catalyst as we go into this video.

I want to make it crystal clear. This morning i posted a video breaking down that i am in the market. I am 46 in the market uh with long trades, 0.01 percent short, so very much long, but i am 55 cash. So if we end up getting bad news or the markets for whatever reason react miserably after this, i got cash.

Otherwise, i do have uh bets on small cap stocks. The reason i placed bets on small cap stocks, which you can see exactly which tickers and everything in my last video just watched. My last video on the channel i break down everything in there. Uh broke everything down within like two hours of actually making the trade so check that out.

Uh, then um take a look at that video until you'll. See that, and the theory for this is this today, in my opinion, is a very hedged event. A hedged event means we know with certainty that something is going to happen at a certain date or on a certain date. We saw this same kind of stuff when we had the election, we knew when the election was going to be uh.

Just like we know when earnings are so what oftentimes happens? Not always is volatility often goes up before the event and then down after the event. Uh not always keep that in mind. I noticed in a lot of the small cap stocks, specifically the ones i talk about. Volatility was actually substantially low, which makes buying call options somewhat useful, remember with call options if you're buying options ever you want to buy options when volatility is low, it's literally the same thing as price buy low, sell, high same thing goes for options, but beyond talking About options and trading, we got to focus in this video on the federal reserve.

A hedged event is usually followed by an offloading of hedges, either substantially in the profit or as a loss and see the nature of a hedge. Is that generally people, hedging or shorting? Don't necessarily want their hedges to pay off and they're willing to take a loss on those to protect the other part of their portfolio. That's generally long, and so most of the times you'll find institutions are more long than they're sure, although sometimes you'll find very bearish institutions who are more short than they're long right, but anyway the uh. I always think transparency is very important.

Clarity is very, very important. Uh, i do not think the the market is is out of the out of the woods. You know we're not out of the the pain that we're going to experience over the next uh uh rate hike cycle. Uh there's going to be a lot of uncertainty in 2022.

I think we're going to have a lot more uncertainty in 2022 than we did in 2023. This explains why, in my opinion, my cash position is relatively large uh but anyway, let's, let's take a brief look at the market here and then, after a brief, look at the market. What we'll do is uh, we'll jump on over to uh some fomc uh commentary. Previously, so we can somewhat understand uh a little bit more about expectations and we've got about 24 minutes to go until the uh.

The statement is released now. Remember. The statement is just gon na be a quick statement in terms of uh. Did we raise rates today? If, if we raise rates today like if that statement comes out - and it's like - oh my gosh they're raising rates today, the market will potentially crash uh, the market will probably fall four to seven percent instantly.

Uh i mean it will be a crash, the likes of which you've never seen before or whatever anyway uh. I i don't think it'll be good. Now the federal reserve, it's important to know, does not give a crap about your stock valuations. In fact, they want valuations to come down, but they don't want to shock the market, because, even though valuations could trail down, that's not that big of a deal to the fed.

What matters is shocks when you have sudden massive declines in values, because that creates a liquidity crisis. Credit tightens up the bond market freaks out everything freaks out and that's what they're not trying to do they're the way i i picture what the fed is trying to do, and i wouldn't be surprised if they use analogies like this, although maybe that's just what they Think to themselves who knows what they actually said: uh we'll find out in like eight years when they release the transcripts, which is different from the minutes. Minutes is like a summary right, but anyway, i think what they're trying to do is uh boil us like a frog in a pot of water, and so they put us in in the nice. You know: relaxing water, it's stimulating! It's really nice and they're trying to turn the heat up on us.

So we don't realize that it's. You know we're boiling like frogs. Eventually, that's uh! That's my belief. I don't think they want to come in and just like, you know, pour lava in it or something like that because then it's like, oh i'm, jumping out of here you know: that's, that's not the intention of the fed, although uh you know intentions do not necessarily Have to align with the reality so uh, okay, let's go ahead and see what we got going on in the marquette today, so we're going to jump on over to a couple different platforms here: let's go ahead and start with uh wee ball.

Okay, here we go so what do we got here? Lobster frog same thing: who cares whatever you get? What i mean all right? So what do we got here? Uh, okay, so what we have uh already forming is is smaller caps doing quite well. Today, uh er you've got amc sitting at over 10. A firm is is getting closer to being a small cap, but it's still technically a mid cap, and so is draft kings. But a lot of these companies that have sold off in in a bloody way are really recovering very, very nicely today, uh and if you want to know again exactly the positions that that i took they're, i mentioned exactly which tickers i bought in the video earlier.

Uh, of course, i always every time i buy or sell something, whether i add to a position or i close a position or whatever, no matter what i do and it's not trading advice or financial advice. Whatever i do, i do send those alerts uh in the stocks and psychology money group instantly. I can't get those updates out that fast on on youtube. So that's where they're all posted instantly and then you have a whole historical record of them too.

But anyway, let's take a look at what we've got here. So uh we've got luminar technology, so they are a lidar provider and i've we've been doing a lot of research on uh luminar. One of the things that really makes me excited is their partnerships with nvidia, but but more importantly, and they partner with multiple different companies. Not only to be uh they're, one of their exclusive lidar providers, which there are many different forms of lidar but they're, also working with trucking companies.

I mean there's so much good to say about uh about luminar and it really merits its own video uh. But what we're seeing here is luminar gamestop shift technologies, workhorse draftkings, hud 8 affirm backed lordstown motors upstart. Pretty much anything that has been affected by momentum is coming back to life right before the fed meeting. Now this is actually a little bit different from my original expectations.

I did want to buy this morning, and so i bought at market open uh, that's one! That's when i executed my trades right at market open uh within within it took about 45 minutes. So, within 45 minutes of market open uh, we got the various different trades in and uh this. This rationale it was that we probably would have had lower prices before the fed meeting than after the fed meeting. If we end up getting a base case scenario, response which is again march, 16th rate hike taper done in march, not ending the stimulus yet not ending the free, the cheap money yet because it might come as a surprise to you.

But while uh we are talking about raising rates, we actually are still printing money. Uh. Now you know i get this in the comments. Sometimes people think kevin.

We don't actually print money anymore, uh. Yes, we do. We digitally print money. We basically go on a spreadsheet and we're like.

Oh, we have a trillion dollars on the asset side and a trillion dollars on the liability side. Let's create an extra trillion dollars: okay, open up spreadsheet and then j-pal goes in there and select one make it two select one make it two boom just created a trillion dollars, literally, that that is digital money. Printing. It's honestly uh very weird: it is a phenomenon that makes a lot of people nervous about how fragile our uh insane uh monetary system, uh, potentially is and uh, and i think that has given way to a lot of folks being very, very excited about uh.

Investing in cryptocurrencies uh, which makes sense because it's like what we can't just digitally print crypto now, maybe you can with some like if you bought squid game token, which uh i made a video highly encouraging people not to buy it, because i thought it was a Scam ended up being a rug poll uh, but anyway uh. So the phenomenon of the fed is crazy and uh. It's led to a lot of skepticism, but still everybody pays attention to the fed and the statement comes out in the next 18 minutes here: everybody's watching the fed yeah and that's because the fed moves the market, whether you like it or not, whether whether you think It's rigged or or what they move the market and again based on these base case scenarios. Here we could see these stocks that are doing well right now, which i wouldn't be surprised if we get a little bit of a sell down right before the meeting.

But we might not if we do end up getting any kind of drawdown right before the meeting. I do think that, potentially and again not financial advice, there could be potentially a little bit of a buying opportunity. Oh no! Oh! I disappeared there for a second that we can't can't have that happen. Uh, oh uh, am i back hold on.

Oh, let me restart here we go. Am i back. I hope i'm back dude what is going on with this dumb computer? Oh i hate this there. We go i'm back.

Okay, all right computer is so stupid that wasn't even an internet thing. It was uh, so i use my ipad as a second screen and uh the wi-fi of the ipad disconnected from the computer and then the computer started freezing. Can somebody please short apple for me and make money, not financial advice to short apple. It's warren buffett's biggest position, but uh man apple, he's killing me you're, making me all stuck here: steph bro anyway.

Okay, so look. If we get bad news from the fed uh the market's gon na go down, we know that uh. However, if we get news that is expected or good news, the market could potentially rally if we have shorts unload. Now i want to be crystal clear: we're still going to have a lot of poopy doopy to go through over the next uh honestly year as we go through this rate hike cycle uh, but we do not want to uh.

You know you know potentially missable out of either right, so this is where it's like. Okay, do we do we nibble in on some that we think could have outsized movements, and this is really where you have to make your own decision in terms of what you want to do. The good news over the last two trading days, that's monday and tuesday, is that we actually had a higher low on tuesday, and we had a very similar pattern reversal within the first three hours of trading, and that was potentially a bullish indicator that the market had Hit low uh and when folks started recognizing that we hit a higher low on tuesday, the uh futures market actually started increasing, and it's interesting because that's exactly when the futures markets start going up was was once we started getting news coverage that wait a minute uh. We potentially are are hitting uh levels that that are that are indicate indicative of a bottom right again, no guarantees but uh, but very, very interesting, okay, so uh, let's see here all right.

Let's go ahead and jump on over here and see what we got in the crypto market. Okay, this computer sucks um. You know this is a i'm. Just gon na complain really quickly and rant.

This is a mac pro and it sucks uh. It is not uh. The fault at all of our there we go of our beautiful streaming provider uh, who uh a lot too there we go. Am i good? No, i know now i look frozen come on man.

I hate this computer, so much uh. Okay, i don't know if you can still hear me, but we'll get this thing going here. F, i hate it. I hate that computer, i just hate it.

I hate it. Somebody like somebody, buy me a dell. Please take this freaking computer, throw it out the damn window, all right anyway, uh, okay, so um look taking a look at crypto, which i like looking at crypto, because lately crypto has been a little bit of uh a tell for us as a potential guide of Uh of of what markets could do we are starting, and it's weird like crypto, has been leading. The stock market moves lately, uh it led the stock market futures up uh.

We saw uh futures move up on uh on tuesday, monday and tuesday when bitcoin started. Moving up that's when we started seeing the market move up, sometimes five to ten minutes later so right now we are getting a little bit of a drawdown in btc we're back to about 37.7 right now. Now that could potentially be a buying opportunity because we're certainly lower than where we were last week, unless, of course, you think we're gon na get bad news from the federal reserve, which is entirely possible. I want to make it clear that some folks are expecting the federal reserve to hike today.

Some folks are expecting a double rate, hike or potentially even estimates that we need to raise rates to over one percent or something extremely bearish uh. I have made it clear for uh, you know at least the last few weeks that i do not believe we are going to get a uh, a surprise rate hike today. I do not believe we are going to get a surprise uh end to the taper today. If we get either of those again lower chances, it's going to be a little bit more of an oopsy-doopsy.

So we'll see what happens. Keep that in mind as you're betting uh on the market. Uh and uh stay at a margin, uh er! If you have margin limit your margin but and don't get margin on crypto, this is just some of my thoughts all right. So uh.

Let's take a look at how well i mean, let me just say, as this computer comes back to life stupid computer here, uh how markets are moving, we've got about uh 10 minutes to go to the federal reserve. Uh announcement, which is gon na, be very exciting. All right here we go so uh. It does look like right now on the one minute chart we're kind of consolidating on the spy, so we're not running and uh we're not rotating to the downside.

We are consolidating typical consolidation pattern very, very, very typical in trading and what you end up, finding is markets, or stocks or indices, can tend to break out of a consolidation pattern either to the upside or to the downside. I'll show you this pattern in just one. Second, but we are getting that on the sp, why and i'm going to quickly pull up qqq and then we'll come back to that pattern. There we go okay, qqq is showing literally the same exact, uh consolidation.

All right here we go. I think we are back up and running here and uh, then i'll be able to share this. So in the meantime, while that comes btc against 37 7 right now, we are now 10 minutes away from good old, j pal. Okay.

There we go all right. Switching over devices really good there we go uh nope that didn't work. What is going on today. This is like the one.

This is the worst. This is just the worst i i cannot stand this today, uh i've, whatever i will get to the bottom of this. Okay, so anyway, here i'll just show you the consolidation, quick, no, and that's like that, whatever here old school way, okay, see see right here. This is what's happening, you're getting you're getting compression between the highs and lows.

That's the consolidation pattern. It's happening on the qqq and it's happening on the uh uh. What's it called uh the spy forensics on my computer yeah no kidding. I just did a full restore on the stupid thing too.

That's just so so toxic anyway uh, okay, so uh. We are now eight minutes away from the fed decision, uh, which should be fun all right, uh. Okay, let's go see, i want to see how some other stocks are moving before so luminar is relatively stable right now. Uh going into this fed meeting game stops up 15 folks.

Uh amc is only up about 9.2, a little bit more bouncy than uh. What we're seeing with uh game stop. We are see here backed holdings back holding, so i want to talk about back to line back hole b and the ticker symbol on this. One is bkkt, it's backed holdings.

This is a uh fintech payment processor for crypto, or at least they're like an intermediary for payment processing for crypto. I did a full video on them. So if you type in meet kevin b, a k k, t holdings uh, you should be able to find it. I was not very happy about the stock when, when it was going euphoric, the company was had this insane momentum movement, and i made a video about it saying this is ridiculous.

Like an overvalued company uh, it ran from about nine dollars and 30 cents to 880, which is where it had stabilized all the way up to 50 and 80 cents, and that momentum bled out. Just like your typical kind of momentum curve and right now, the stock is sitting at 4 and 30 cents, which is ridiculously low. A lot of things have fallen to just absolutely insane lows and again, in my opinion, there are uh buying opportunities in those uh. Okay, so uh that's backed.

We got microvision of nine point, two five percent. I think microvision is moving right before the fed news, geez man, this computer's slow. I think microvision is moving before this news up 9.5, mostly because luminar is moving up so well, uh luminar. Obviously, a lidar provider a lot of enthusiasm around microvision.

I really love the forward-facing aspect of the microvision lidar, but i think microvision is either like and i don't know this. Maybe somebody can correct me if they have the best information, but at least based on the latest research we were doing on microvision. It didn't really look like uh microvision was either prioritizing the uh uh, the forward-facing lidar for automotive, uh or potentially had even just given up on the project. So i'm not sure about that.

I don't want to spread fake news uh, but that's something to fact check. So i think that's why lately we've seen a little bit of this preference towards luminar over microvision all right, we got genoc draftkings folks, that's another one that has just hit low after low after low and it's it's quite quite devastating uh. What what you're really looking for uh is is a floor uh for this sort of company, and we just have not found a floor for these companies, which is kind of insane to think about uh. They they continue to break to new lows, uh hud, 8 mining and backed i do want to say both those will substantially follow whatever btc does so.

If btc ends up moving green, then uh, then those might end up moving green. If um, if you end up getting uh red on crypto, those tend to follow them, that includes bank, even though they're well, i mean their payment processor right uh, even though they're listed stock and they're, not a crypto miner they're vastly effective, it's kind of like coinbase, Which is also an incredibly new lowest so wild, but uh anyway. So remember. The big thing for coinbase that you have to remember is they need to transition their customers from a level of profit of uh off of transactions to secondary services, which would be like credit cards or margin lending or whatever.

That's that's where coinbase is going to shine when they can make that transition happen until that transition happens, uh you know, you're gon na see earnings probably go down on transaction fees as we get out of this crazy momentum. Phase we've been in oh, my gosh. Am i up again hey look. We got two cabins in here.

What up y'all all right? Oh, my gosh, i'm sorry that was like the last 10 minutes was, and i tried not to show it, but i was boiling on the inside more than this cup of coffee, because this cup of coffee, which i should have been sipping in the last 30 minutes - Is now getting cold because i've been ranting, oh by the way stream yard sent me this cup and uh? I know it sounds weird, but whatever happened with the live stream is not stream yard's fault. I do use stream yard. If you want to learn more about them, you can go to mattkevin.com streamyard. This is a hundred percent, a mac issue.

I actually solved it by unplugging, some hdmi cables from it, and it's just it's it's my mac. I one of these days i'm gon na throw it out of the window and i'm gon na make a video and i'm gon na post it. It's probably gon na, be a short and you're. Just gon na see that 5 000 mac pro display go because obviously the display has has uh has a lot to do with it anyway.

Okay, uh, let's get ready here, okay, so i i i all right. We've got three minutes to the statement here. This is a big moment, uh three minutes to the statement and uh. The way this statement comes out is critical, because what you need to know is that the statement is usually given to news agencies, so news agencies probably have uh the statement already.

Usually, the statement is what what happens is the news agencies get one reporter that gets put into a room at the fed or that's how it used to be before covent and they're not allowed to publish or post anything until right at 11? Am this is known as an embargoed news release? I don't know if they still do this with covet, but they always used to do embargoed news releases. This does mean that, even though i'm gon na be sitting here doing my best to get this information, the very second it comes out. I am as a hedge to myself going to play cnbc at the same time that we hit 11.. So if i get it first, you'll hear it from me: there's a 9 out of 10 chance.

In this case they is going to beat my butt uh, but that's okay! That's all right! Uh! I do want to also mention that uh ftx us is also sponsoring this video. I use them for tracking my bitcoin prices, uh and uh ethereum prices. I love the trading view tools that you can incorporate with them. Absolutely incredible for trading uh check them out by going to mattkevin.com ftx us, and if you sign up with an affiliate link, you get uh 10 off on your trading fees, which are already relatively low, uh they're 85 lower than competitors.

Okay. Here we go folks. We are now 60 seconds away again what you are looking for. I want to be crystal clear about what you're looking for rates stay the same, and then you want to look at the taper we're going to see a reduction in bond purchases.

You were going to see a reduction in bond purchases, probably to something like uh, 30 or 40 billion dollars left for the next month or two and that's okay, that's part of the taper process. You do not want to see them go to zero if they go and they they say. We have completed the taper, that's potentially a bad news, catalyst so uh we'll see. Oh i'm nervous got got dollars on the line here.

Folks, dolla hollis, all right. Let's listen in, we got 10 seconds to go. The fed is usually timely with their releases, especially if this is an embargoed release. You ready folks.

Here we go a march rate hike uh four rate hikes this year, end of qe by march and potentially start of qt as well, but all in line thus far with market expectations. Mono we're going to interrupt right now and go to steve leesman with the fed decision tyler. Thank you very much. The federal reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, but it says in its statement the committee expects it will quote soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, good good statements, that inflation is well above two percent.

Now the state continues to taper asset purchases, not one more round it will make in february, and the statement says it will end the asset purchases in early march. Let's freaking go saying: the fed will use its full range of tools to support the economy. Note the sharp rise in covet cases continues to affect the economy but says overall, economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen job gains, it says, have been solid supply and demand and balances, mostly related from the pandemic, are contributing to inflation, the path of the economy, Keeping up a line from prior statements continues to depend on the path of the virus risk to the economic outlook. The statement says remain: the committee says it's prepared to adjust monetary policy.

Its monetary policy stands as appropriate. Now it makes no mention of the balance sheet, but it does uh have a um, its new long-run statement out which i don't see a whole lot of changes. But i want to note one uh line from the statement where it says the primary means of adjusting policy is through the fed funds rate. That has been the policy of the federal reserve and it remains the policy of the federal reserve, no mention kelly of any balance sheet.

Adjustment in this statement suggests that uh, maybe the fed, is not prepared to announce uh or a company's decision about what to do with the balance sheet. But that one statement from the long-run policy says that the fed funds rate will be the primary means that the fed will address policy and the economy all right steve. Thank you, okay. Yes, this is absolutely true.

Now, in the old uh in the last uh report that we had from the federal reserve and keep in mind, look at what's happening right now in the markets. Here, okay, we got btc moving up on this news. This is expected. The spy is moving up on this news, tesla's moving up on this news, what they just said about the fed funds rate being the preferred method of controlling or responding to the economy, has to do with the yield curve.

Now the yield curve is something really important to understand. Basically, if the yield curve goes down, yeah i'm not going to go into detail as to exactly what it is right now. But if the yield curve goes down, then the federal, then then we might risk a recession, possibly even a deflationary style recession if the yield curve keeps flattening and potentially even inverting. That is a big risk or fear.

Now that does not necessarily need to uh need to be what happens and over the last month, the yield curve, instead of flattening or in other words falling, has actually stabilized the reason that is critical, that the yield curve stabilizes is because it allows the fed to Say: okay, let's: let's go ahead and stick with what our expectations are rates over uh like a super, fast taper, and this the reason this matters, because, even though we don't necessarily want rates to go up, it is a long expectations. You don't want the fed to say something like. Oh my gosh, the yield curve is freaking out. We need to really quickly change strategies because you can't pick your poison, the fed does and the fed changing strategies is bad.

Nobody wants the fed to change strategy. So then, maintaining this strategy is very, very good btc now at 38.5, this is good. I do have the statement down. Jerome powell will be speaking in 27 minutes.

This is part two okay, that's when things get critical, because that's when jerome powell is going to read some prepared remarks and then he's going to start talking to us about none other than our questions brought to you by all your favorite reporters from the wall street Journal cnbc new york times and all that good stuff, they don't take any questions from the public, but anyway this is where they're going to get drilled about hey. What kind of timeline do we have for rates possibly going up? Okay, let's take a look at what we've got here and some moves here, so we got pounds you're up about four percent arc is moving uh up here. You've got backed uh back shot up nicely on this. It's about four point: uh.

Six, four point: four. Four point: four six uh luminar went up, looks like about another one percent held on to some of its gains so far in the day, hud-8 mining moving up on this news, uh, so we're seeing those smaller and some of the the smaller even the mid caps Kind of move on this uh, let's take a look at how tesla's moving on this. We expect every kind of tech to be moving up on this news, tesla, absolutely moving up on this news. Now i don't love the idea of trading into tesla the day of earnings, because, like six out of eight times, earnings tend to lead the stock to go down afterwards.

Last time was an exception i feel like we will see, but anyway uh a lot of movement right now in stocks. I want to see if anything's, actually rotating more to the downside and remember we have the uh fed q, a uh with j pal j pal. In 20, uh or i'll just say at 11 30 at 11, 30 a.m. Pt uh again, that's in 24 minutes, but this is.

This is literally what we were expecting. This is the base case scenario. This is not any kind of a freak out result. This is not a rug pull.

This is what we were expecting, which is very good. You've got the volatility index falling substantially uh, it's so funny, because yesterday i was running math and i'm like oh man, i should short uh. The pro shares vix short, which is ticker symbol. U v x y.

I didn't end up making that trade. I wish i did because it if i had shorted it and then it fell 12. That would be good. That's okay! I made other trades, but that was one of the ones i'm looking at it's just a strategy for you to have in your back pocket when volatility goes down.

Uh lucid, is, is actually recovering. Look at that recovery on lucid. It was down a couple percent right here. Even snap is recovering right now.

The stock market is loving. This dose of certainty. This is the best case that we could have gotten uh and, and we got it uh robin hood's, really lagging behind. You've got a little bit of a recovery here on etsy google trade desk folks.

These companies, great long-term, holds long-run investors, in my opinion, should be very, very, very happy and comfortable, maybe not necessarily happy, because recently things have been going down. It should be very comfortable, not financial advice with companies like google, etsy and trade desk end phase lemonade. Lemonade has uh is another one. That's moving up on this news here.

Lemonade could potentially set up for a short squeeze no guarantees. Obviously, but lemonade is very highly shorted, along with shift technologies. These are some of the companies that became sort of the butt of the joke for hedge funds, so shift technology up 18 today. No guarantees that uh that obviously uh these these will maintain any of these sort of prices here, uh amc now at about 11, okay, so obviously market reacting positively, because we we we did not get the worst case scenario here.

Thank god we got what we expected. We talked about that a lot, obviously not just in this video, but even beforehand. This is literally what we were expecting. So thank you, j-pal.

Now, let's look at the actual statement. I'm really just going to look at the statement to see if i can pick out any particular key words myself. So what i'm going to look at here is uh really changes, so indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen okay. So when they say indicators of economic activity and employment go up, that's actually something that would reiterate hike.

That is a way of them. Saying like okay, it's appropriate to hike right. The sector's most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved another way of saying hike right but are still affected by the recent rise in covet cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.

We've already had certain members of the federal reserve board say we have reached maximum employment. We have achieved uh our expectation for employment. That means we can raise uh rates and start dealing with inflation, which inflation measures continue to come in higher and higher and higher uh. We do expect and the best case scenario for this market in 2022 - absolute best case scenario: i'm 60 hoping this happens best freaking case scenario.

Is we end up getting dis inflation at some point this year? I have no freaking idea when that's gon na happen, but that is if you want to dream, for something for 2022 dream for disinflation. That means is, inflation starts rotating down. We just had a survey that came out of the new york fed when i say survey. It's more like a it's their version of an economic study uh, it's not like some guy just standing at the street like they tried to do well, these some people, don't believe them, but whatever uh the fed's economic survey on consumer spending is indicating that individuals are Spending more money on non-essentials and less money on essentials.

That is a way of the federal reserve. Saying uh, oh uh, it looks like people are more and more affected by inflation, which is a problem right. We'll get back right back to the statement. I do want to take a quick peek here at btc, nice movement again here in btc we are almost at 39 000..

This is, in my opinion, bullish want to be transparent. I did buy four coins this morning, uh leading up to this meeting, and i also invested in a lot of small caps this morning i did a post a video this morning talking about some of those ticker symbols. Of course, if you want every single move that i make, whether it makes money or not uh check out the programs linked down below i'm building your wealth, there's a coupon code expiring in two days when i turn 30. uh and in full transparency uh last year, I had trading trading gains so not like paper, profit loss or whatever trading gains is somewhere around three to four million dollars.

So i'm happy about that, but i'm not happy. I pay taxes on that because i looked at it like oh crap, i haven't paid taxes, but anyway, let's go back to this fed statement here, uh, okay, a little bit of a move here on btc. I do expect some volatility as we get to the q and a section with j pal. The q and a section of j-power, in my opinion, is, is actually something that makes me a little nervous uh because you know all he has to say remember.

Remember we're down to two cases right now here, let me uh where, where did i put it where'd? I put it it's right here. No, it's this one! It's one of these uh yeah yeah. Here it is okay, so this is. This is my uh expectation.

So i have a whiteboard and at night i kind of throw ideas on this. That's that's that's what my evenings look like is talking to a whiteboard and other people and strategizing and stuff so again, uh. We believed that hiking now and uh, a taper now would be a shock uh and it would be one percent likely it did not happen. We believe that uh tapering now with no hike, would be five percent likely.

That would be a shock. It did not happen, which is good, uh being dovish and canceling. All of the talk about taper or whatever rate hikes, very unlikely to happen. I gave it a one percent chance of happening did not happen.

Now we are in between these two cases right here. The two cases right here are either uh hiking. On march 16th, with a 0.25 basis, point increase or maybe giving us a schedule or a double schedule or double would mean uh like we know exactly when the rate hikes are coming, probably not uh and a uh 0.5 increase would be a double on the rate. Not something that we're looking forward to a little bit of a decline right now on on the btc chart a little bit of a pullback in uh some stocks that were rallying.

This is why i was saying like not not not. You don't want to like run in and follow these sorts of jumps uh, just, for example, tesla rotating right back down right now to where it is. Why, folks, why would these things be rotating back down because we've got the fed q a coming up and that's going to be big in 18 minutes? That's gon na be part two of uncertainty. We checked one thing off the box, but we still got part two of uncertainty.

What did i say right before the statement came out? You might end up having a buying opportunity between statement release and when jerome powell speaks. That's this now again, no guarantees. We are still in for a crappy year, but i do not think that that chasing this is necessary right now, because there's still going to be some uh. You know it's too early to offload hedges.

It's really too early to party, because uh of uh, of what jay pal might say and he's gon na be talking for about probably 30 30 minutes with q, a okay. Let's go back to the statement here. Uh supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and reopening have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. This is a problem uh.

This reiterates the the need to to taper and to deal with inflation. Keep in mind that uh, we just had three earnings that came out yesterday and all of them were somewhat concerning. Regarding inflation, general electric complained of persistent inflation and struggles, completing orders because of of uh supply chain crises, a raytheon took a 150 million dollar hit because of inflation, and they believe it's delaying their ability to deliver things like engines for for planes or jets uh. Then you had uh 3m, the mask manufacturer, who refused to give guidance and expects to give guidance in in 2020 or in february 2022, because they're they're so confused about the supply chain issues.

So keep that in mind. Okay, let's keep looking at the letter over here path of the economy. Well, let me make sure i didn't miss anything. Overall.

Financial conditions remain accommodative in part, reflecting policy measures uh to support the economy and flow of credit, in other words, they're still providing money right. They're still printing, it's just weird, but they are still printing uh tesla, almost exactly back to where it started before uh this this statement came out, so whatever gains you had in like the last 10 minutes are right back to kind of where they were they're, not Net lower, yet, though, for for most things here, though, this q a is going to be a critical moment, we'll see uh all right, the path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and easing of supply chain constraints are expected uh to support continued gains in the economy. Okay, this.

This is good progress on vaccinations and easing of supply chain constraints. So far, a lot of companies aren't seeing that kind of easing of supply chain constraints. So keep an eye on it all right. The committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at a rate of two percent over the longer run.

In support of these goals, the committee decided to keep the target range for the fed funds rate at zero. To one point: uh or zero, two point: two: five percent with inflation. Well, above two percent, the committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target rate for the fed funds rate. So this line right here is, is basically giving us crystal clear guide that we are expecting uh, that move on uh on rates march, uh 16th, so keep an eye on that uh very, very important! So, let's see here then we've got beginning in february.

The committee will increase its holdings of treasury securities by at least 20 billion per month and mortgage-backed securities by at least 10 billion. That's funny, that's literally what i what i said before the statement came out that they're probably going to go to 30 bill, and that would be expected. So that's good! This is what we're thinking. Uh feds continued purchases will help uh smooth the transition in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, we'll continue to monitor they can adjust at any point if they need to uh and uh there.

You go okay, so now j-pal comes out in about 14 minutes. To talk a little bit of a u-turn down right now, because it's the q and a section - that's usually the one that creates a little bit of nervousness in the market, so uh, because we we got the good news. The good news is over. Now it's like.

Okay, what now, what what's j pal got to say and as long as nothing really gets said that that would make the market nervous? Hopefully the market continues to go green. However, i just want to be crystal clear: i'm 45 percent in the market and 50 55 - not because we are going to have a volatile 2022. uh. Take a look speaking of volatility.

Uh we're going to go over here to ftx. Remember you can go to medkevin.com ftxus to trade with ftx, and if you use that referral link, you get 10 off of your trading fees uh. Here we are seeing this volatility literally play out. We were barcoding essentially right here, ran after the news and almost instantly traded right back down.

This is very likely because, when you have catalyst, events like this there's a lot of traitor activity that comes into all sorts of securities and it's worth noting that until the event is fully over and then the market really digests them, the market does not have to Move to the upside and, quite frankly, the market, digesting news hasn't lasted green, very long. We've gotten a lot of fake out rallies, so it is something to be cautious of uh. Okay, let's go ahead and see here and let's go look at some individual stocks here. So, look at that going right back to where we were before on a shift technologies right, gamestop, barely even moved here, which is quite interesting.

Let's look at tesla here. Tesla was ripping right after the announcement and look it's. It's essentially gone right back to the support of uh, where, where where we were, it's almost like, the stock market was kind of like yay. This is good news.

Oh crap, we still got ta wait for powell to talk and then just like rotates right back uh. It makes sense completely makes sense. That's exactly why i said there could be a buying opportunity between the statement, release and uh j-pal uh, but there's a lot of risk. I mean we don't know what tone j-power is going to strike if j-pal comes out and he sounds like a you know like a d-bag it'll be bad, not that i think he will.

I think, look i'm going to make i'm going to make a guess here. I'm going gon na pretend that i am jerome powell and uh. I am going to uh uh just pretend to answer uh some some some questions. So, for example, uh i'm going to get asked hey will.

Would you consider a two basically a 50 basis, point rate hike, uh and i'd probably answer with something as j-pal political of like? Well, we don't want to take any options off the table or, or you know, items out of the tool belt. But at this point we don't believe something like that would be necessary and we'd. Much prefer to essentially use quarter, point rate hikes uh and then just adjust the number of them. I'm hoping he says something like that, but that's probably i'm like 70 30 on that one.

So i'm not sure if he's going to give us a clear answer on that, he could also blow us off because he we know he's going to get the question. He could end up blowing us off and just saying something like you know: well, you know that'll remain an option but uh we we don't have an answer at this time. That's also possible, which would be the most unfortunate because guess what happens, then? If you get an unclear answer from jay pal, then you create uncertainty again, and this is that uncertainty period that i'm talking about where it's possible, depending on what j-pal says, the market could kind of kick the can of pain down the road from jan 26 to March 16th best case scenario. Here we get a clear information from j-pop now.

The reason i believe, we're more likely to get clear information from j-pal right now is because he has made it critically clear that he wants to give the appropriate expectations to markets because they want to. They want to raise rates without shocking the market. Honestly, jay powell will probably consider his career a substantial success, in my opinion, if, if, if he is able to raise rates, potentially all the way up to two percent two and a half percent even and not crash the market like he did in 2018. In case you're not familiar in 2018, the federal reserve uh, you know, was sort of at the end of its rate hike cycle and they now they crashed the market.

The nasdaq and s p were down 20 by december of 2020. Within the span of about six weeks, very, very bloody end to uh 2018 and on december 19th, jay pal comes out and says: hey, you know, everybody's been thinking we're going to raise rates three times next year, we're just going to raise rates two times the market Loved this, but it took time for the market to recover the market didn't actually bottom until two days later on the 21st, and then we started the rally. So i think that is an important lesson for what we're looking at right now is not to expect the market to necessarily balloon instantaneously, but potentially to take about six weeks to really to really price in whatever hopium jaypal gives us uh remember he does not care About your valuation, the valuation of your stocks is is not a priority to j-pal at all, uh now, sometimes when i say that people like what do you mean again, j-pal thinks and the fed believes that excessive valuations in the stock market lead to excessive debt and Risk-Taking, which are downside catalyst to the market by potentially forming a bubble and then crashing the economy right uh. We don't.

We don't want that uh and so instead, it's it's much easier to bleed stocks. Evaluations like what we've seen over the past three or four weeks. Uh or potentially even eight weeks at this point and uh and and then um, you know just just try to get to a normalized market where we cover normally. So this right here is 2018..

Take a look at this, so this is 2018 here and you can see the sharp selling off that really began around december 3rd, which is kind of funny, because that's when we started having a sell-off in in 2021 just just a few weeks ago was december 3rd. That's when i went on vacation to cabo and i'm like oh my gosh. This is like the worst time to go on vacation, but, like i couldn't have timed that one, but anyway uh the market ended up falling here all the way to uh. The bottom was about here, okay, so maybe it was actually like the 24th right here around the 21st 24th right around.

Here i am on the average candlesticks, so so that could kind of mess it up there a little bit. Oh there we go okay. 24Th. I think i said a couple days later, so it actually took about five days uh for for the market to move here, but then look at what you had there after it took about from the end of december, to probably about april, to actually get back to The levels that we previously had this right here should be uh should provide comfort to the people who are buying and hodling, and i think traders should be aware of this as well: okay, good so uh.

Clearly, we have bounced off of the the support lines that we've had here at 430 and 426 for the spy. I was really blown away that we had this kind of bounce, but hey ta works. Do take a look at this, though this is the s p. 500, which has rotated down uh slightly after uh after the um uh the announcement from jay pal.

We have a draftkings same same kind of pattern here: game stop very gamestop, didn't really react, backed holdings uh same kind of movement here, but still obviously up on the day uh. It was just a little bit tentative right now, amc actually rotating down after the meeting from about a ten percent gain to about seven percent. So heads up uh, not all, is straight up right now. Uh, let's look like nvidia is, is moving nicely also a little bit down from uh after announcement here uh compared to before same thing, with tesla uh, very, very nervous, sort of tentative behavior.

Here we've got five minutes to go on um on j-pal, so fingers crossed all right. Folks, let's see we have uh. Okay, we've gone through the statement. We've gone through.

Let's take a brief look, maybe to see what kryptos doing right here. Let's see btc, okay, so btc, i i don't know how how much it's going to lead today, but btc tends to uh indicate a potential uh movement coming to uh to the spy or qqq. I've now gone from the five minute chart to the one minute chart and - and this is again very trading view here - you can i'm not going to throw in all the indicators right now. Mostly, i just want to watch the price here.

Uh, we are seeing a nice movement up here, just in the last two minutes. Let's go ahead and take a look, if that's being reiterated by the spy spy. Yes, it is uh spy, also again about one minute behind right now, so the spy's finally catching up again to responding like btc but uh. Let's keep an eye here.

Folks, we have four minutes until j-pal comes up. J-Power tends to be on time uh. I appreciate that yeah and um, let's, let's think of some other scenarios here quickly, so jay pal uh. He could say so.

We talked about the. We gave a scenario in terms of what he might say regarding the half point increase in march. I think that's the biggest guidance. I think what i really want to hear from jay pal is uh any positive news on supply chains and i believe that would get rewarded by the market if we had positive news on supply chains.

Unfortunately, i've been a little bit bearish on supply chain news, because the supply chain news has not been great uh. The issue has been exacerbated by omicron. However, if you jump on over to covid cases, you look at like new york, for example, we've been seeing a plummet covet cases new york. Let me just corroborate that oh my gosh folks you're gon na love this chart because the the more we see this kind of price action, the more uh, i'm sorry, the price actions you know my head is in the sticks all day long when i'm calling covet Cases charts price action, but anyway, look at this freaking chart right here.

This is exactly what we saw in south africa. It's exactly what we saw in the uk and it is absolutely what we want to see now. Originally, when omicron started spreading in the united states, there was actually a lot of fear that the united states would actually react differently to omicron, because there less of the american population has been exposed to covid than the south african population. So that means the south african population had more natural immunity to covid than the american population.

The median age is also about 10 years younger in south africa, so there was a temporary concern that was being priced into the market that sure maybe cases are going down quickly in south africa, but that does not necessarily have to happen in the united states, especially Since the u.s is so diverse that we could end up seeing these these surges in different areas so far, though first american test here in new york city, that's a big check mark. That is very, very good. I like seeing that if i go to the entire united states uh, we do still uh. Actually we've hit a little bit of an inflection point here.

That's really good uh! Let me go to all time here.