Other reason to get excited is that you got five days left to take advantage of that coupon code link down below for the programs on building your wealth. You get lifetime access to the course member live streams we do after the pre-market open live stream uh, every day and uh, possibly we'll start on weekends for Elite Hustlers Uh, within the next, uh, week or so here. TBD And exactly when. And you know we view the stocks valuation as highly compelling at these levels.

Yes, remember. Tesla fell by 65 last year. Uh, it was a broad-based EV sell-off so it's decline wasn't as bad as some of its peers such as Lucid and Rivien Uh, both of which fell by 82 percent, but we feel that so much of the headwinds are priced in at these levels that it's it's really a compelling buy and investors will be glad that they bought this stock at these levels. Looking down the road, you know one three five years from now, there are some headlines so you acknowledge: Garrett What? What are the Can you summarize the the top three head ones? I Mean is it is it good for market share that you see prices discounted? Uh, is it our supply constraints? Are those still affecting delivery so that they're they're not going to be what what had been promised? And what about Uh Mr Musk's other interests if you will? Oh my.

God No. I Think you just reeled off the the major concerns there. Um, you know it's really demand has been a major worry of investors production. Uh, Tesla's quarterly production has exceeded its sales for the last three quarters.

so they've built some inventory. But what they've done to respond is cut prices which they just announced a week or two ago and also, uh, they the the company's lower priced Model 3 and Model Y vehicles are now eligible for a 7 500 Federal EV tax credit. So we think those two things are really helping stimulate their sales. We're seeing that anecdotally in some of the Uh sales data that we've seen uh recently as far as uh, Elon's you know interest in Twitter you know that's still the number one, uh, headwind for the stock.

Just the uncertainty uh regarding whether he might possibly sell additional stock, sell additional Tesla shares at some point down the road in order to continue to fund Twitter's operations. I Guess those head ones are are front and center for you. Craig You know the most important thing right now is competition, right? You can't control the demand environment and we know competition is becoming more intense. Tess has had to uh, had to put in price cuts to defend market share.

You know they were overly aggressive in building out capacity. so price cuts are Price cuts are something they will use going forward and you know once they've used it, it's coming again. But the bigger the bigger thing is, there's nothing they have that others don't right? Battery Technology was mentioned. You know the 4680 cells that are starting to cut into production.

Now those are based on the Maxwell Technologies uh dry electrode technology. The key piece there is the coders. Um, some of your investors or some of your viewers would have noticed the 100 million dollar order to Matthew's Corp recently. Um, that was I assume from Tesla.

But if you do a little bit of work, you see that Matthew's corpse sells too many different battery Oems worldwide. So the key Technologies Open source. Other people in Japan and in Germany are using the same technology you know does not have anything that others don't have if their batteries were so. Superior Why are they buying from Chinese Oems just doesn't make sense.

So the posturing you know just doesn't fit with the reality of almost fine competition. weak environment Price Cuts Necessary to drive uh, growth. Consistent with capacity growth. You know it doesn't speak for a company that's going into a golden era.

It speaks for a company that's actually a nominal job creating the market, but there's probably better value elsewhere. And that's how we really encourage our clients to approach the situation. Did that change? Yeah, let's not mention full self-driving at all as potentially a competitive advantage. And let's not mention at all that the batteries that are being bought from companies like Catl in China are lithium iron phosphate batteries which are generally your cheaper, lower cost batteries and are not the structural batteries or the structural.

Battery Technology that Tesla plans to implement into cars like the Cyber truck for substantially more vehicle efficiency, power, towing capacity, uh, range? Nope. let's not mention any of that. Uh, they have a CFO who recently exercised stock options in late December to buy 13, uh, 13 500 shares and then they also have a potential stock buyback announcement of the magnitude we think in the order of five to ten billion dollars. and so you know those are the the positive catalysts that we see ahead for the stock.

That's that's what we. That's what we like about it here. Endless debate on on Tesla and it always works. Thank uh, thank you Garrett Garrett Nelson sounds like an astronaut? Uh yeah I I don't know I mean some sometimes I feel like uh, people have to have an opinion on Tesla So because they have to have an opinion on Tesla they start you know, uh, spitting out nonsense um what? I heard there was I mean I'm I'm all for hearing negative, compelling uh information if if it's compelling but you know, suggesting that Tesla doesn't have any advantage in Battery Technology not mentioning uh, the fact that you know as as we have a commenter here mentioning Tesla's twice the margins of other competitors.

Uh, the market share Tesla can swoop up with a massive free cash flow they have I mean again, consider it. Lucid Rivian losing money for every single vehicle they're making. Uh, Byd has a you know what 1.5 percent, 1.45 net margin. So every 100 of Revenue they get, they bring a buck 40 to the bottom line.

Tesla's bringing 14 bucks to the bottom Lane It's insane. That's the stupidest thing I've heard. but uh, hey, you know what? sometimes you hear stupid things from analysts about Tesla And uh, some people believe it and you know what. You just have to thank them because you thank them for the discounted opportunity to get some more of a sweet sweet.

Paper Stock I Love pricing power, stocks and uh, this is one that in a recession, uh has the most pricing power out of all vehicles. That doesn't mean prices can't come down. Remember that it's about relative pricing power. It's how much money can you make to strategically position yourself to cannibalize the competition and expand the overall pie? It's pretty exciting.

Do keep in mind that uh, right now, uh, models from GM and Tesla qualify for the EV tax credit at least through uh March In March We'll get some more uh, curiosity in terms of how many cars we'll actually qualify. Uh, that is. we'll get a little bit. hopefully more guidance from the treasury.

Department And that's because in uh, in March probably for April And on we'll get some more battery requirement. a battery sourcing requirements that are implemented. so we'll see. But right now it's expected that a new battery sourcing requirements to qualify for 2023 EV Tax credits Beyond April will require 40 of battery critical minerals and 50 of other parts to be sourced in North America or countries with a U.S Free Trade Agreement Critical materials or critical minerals are basically non-fuel minerals or mineral essential to the Uh, to economic or national security to the US.

So these are pretty important. These are going to be things probably uh, much like Lithium nickel. These are things we do not Source a lot of in the United States If using recycled material North American minerals must be 50 or more of the value added. if a newly extracted a process critical mineral uh, then the same requirement as recycling is implemented.

but with 50 of extraction steps or processing steps occurring within the Us or in a free trade country, so you're really requiring multiple parts of that supply chain. Remember, there's extraction, then there's refinement. Then there's shipping to your destination. A lot of pieces here.

I My guess is that look for the first, probably three months here. we're good with the 7500 EV tax credit for Teslas They've got a big banner on the front of their page. Uh, until March 2023, certain model threes and Y's qualify for the 700 7, 500 EV tax credit When we get those new IRS rules and a new treasury guidance which we expect in March I Wouldn't be surprised that we actually see some of these requirements fall so that more Vehicles qualify for the full 7 500 rather than a dropping to the 3750 that they would otherwise fall to. The reason I Believe that is because right now we are led by a democratic Administration a Democrat Administration that is trying to do their best to maximize what they have been able to pass.

They were able to pass the Inflation Reduction Act which included Uh, the EV tax credits uh and and and the chip sack they were able to pass. They were able to pass a lot of spending Provisions Uh and the treasury Department is led by Uh Democrats under the Biden Administration So I would not be surprised to see these EV guidance rules actually end up loosening. come March and more Vehicles end up qualifying for those EV tax credits specifically because of the buy the administration what we're seeing do. Keep in mind we also are seeing Uh Europe Implement their own EV tax credits like a seven thousand dollar EV tax credit coming to Germany for Teslas.

This is in part because uh Chancellor Olaf Schultz from Germany and Uh Emmanuel macron from France have been kind of complaining about the U.S inflation act. They believe that the 500 billion dollars in spending and tax breaks are not fair to Europe and that they don't comply with International rules because they unfairly entice companies to shift their Investments to the United States versus Europe. They actually think they might potentially sue the United States at the World Trade Organization complaining about what's being called the subsidy race. Basically, the government send a spending spiral to compete for electric vehicle and grain businesses.

The U.S obviously wants to recapture its manufacturing base of American-made Vehicles This comes as Ford is cutting 3 200 jobs in Europe another slap in the face to Europe So you're getting more tax credits in America and now Ford's saying they're cutting jobs in Europe Yikes, So you've you've got some, uh, some, uh, some political nonsense going back and forth personally. I Actually believe the best beneficiaries of this political infighting are actually EVS electric vehicle manufacturers because ultimately, what will end up happening is not less spending for EVS because that's not a democratic priority and Democrats are, uh, certainly with green priorities are obviously uh in in the driver's seat right now in America uh and uh, and green priorities are more commonly accepted in Europe. So I really believe the EVS are going to be the beneficiaries here and do keep in mind uh, you know earlier in in this video here we talked about uh, how much money folks are able to make as unioned employees and that's great when you're an employee. But one of the reasons Tesla actually potentially has Superior margins is because not only are they highly automated, they actually bought a German robotics manufacturer and have been using Uh that company substantially for building their own proprietary robotics which is another moat by the way, it's another moat around the competitor being able to have the margins that Tesla does Tesla literally bought the machine manufacturer that makes the robots that make the cars, but you also have a substantially not well I mean you have a completely non-unionized Workforce in manufacturing.

You don't have the massive pension liabilities and overhangs that you do at Legacy Autos like Ford and GM operating margins uh or at Tesla are actually pretty similar to the margins that you see at some of the luxury automakers like Ferrari and a Lamborghini Uh. And so obviously we also expect EV sales to rise over three and a half X globally over the next five years, expecting to get to 17 million units produced by 2026.. obviously Tesla will get all of those Uh model 3 and Y's are pretty reliable on the EV Market Uh, obviously I'm kidding, they're not going to get all of that. Uh, we do know that Elon Musk's goal is to eventually manufacture as many as 20 million vehicles.

and with the new announcement of the Giga expansion uh, yesterday, there is an expectation that Tesla's going to get a big old market share, especially for uh, the electric semis Market which really nobody else is playing in right now, which is pretty remarkable Tesla earnings obviously coming up today I'm relatively bullish about that, mostly because I think a lot of those price Cuts We know, especially in the United States really didn't start happening via tax credits? Uh, in the last week of December for 7 500 bucks? Uh, in the month of December for 37.50 and then of course the actual price Cuts Not until January So I think most of that margin impact won't be seen for Tesla and so I think margin could actually, uh, nicely surprise, especially as we're coming out of two quarters of potential. Shanghai Payne Uh, although we'll see what kind of blame uh Tesla puts on, but uh, you know, pressures from China which hopefully reverse going into 2023. So we'll see when it comes to those earnings though. Um, the the Tesla semi announcement.

Uh, the Uh should I say the Giga Nevada expansion announcement. Pretty exciting. 3.6 billion dollar investment, 3 000 additional staff, 4 million square feet of new manufacturing, a 100 gigawatt 4680 cell. That's enough batteries for 2 million light duty Vehicles annually.

Thanks Sawyer for that! uh, new high volume semi. A factory? that's that's pretty exciting. They've got a nice render of the factory as well that's been circulating on Twitter Uh, I'll show this, this is just a render. Uh, so it's not actually anything too spectacular.

but essentially you see another gigafactory here with Uh Tesla designed on the roof thanks to their solar panels. And then you can actually see a whole line of Tesla semis. Which is interesting because I Like how the rendering shows that the Tesla semis would have, uh, like, basically cargo already attached to them. I Don't think that semi trucks coming off the line are going to have cargo containers already attached to them, but they definitely look better for the rendering than if they didn't because this is what they look like without cargo attached.

Uh, and then I Kind of like that one semi truck right there. kind of like magically coming through the wall. Uh, but then again, it's just surrendering. You're not supposed to look that close at renderings anyway.

uh, look uh, it's sort of a Tesla earnings preview. Uh, let's you know, let's look at their last and I'll give you kind of a little bit of uh guidance in my opinion in terms of what to look for and what Wall Street is looking for. So let's look at their last earnings uh report. So we'll go to their Q3 presentation and we can also compare that to what the earnings estimates are from the Wall Street consenses.

But I Promise you, the first thing that we're going to look at is going to be all right here is going to be Automotive gross margin. So I want you to remember this and and this is what I actually think is actually in my opinion, bullish here about Tesla and look I always. You know like if if you go YOLO call options and then you lose money trying to bet on earnings, that's your problem. And if you make lots of money, do send me a thank you, then I'll take responsibility for it.

But look I generally don't play earnings because you have no idea how markets are going to react to the stupidest things ever. And so I don't like playing earnings I think you're kind of just flipping a coin when you're playing earnings I prefer to play a longer term tactical trades. but what I want you to pay attention to here is in Q2 we had what I call Shang hell and that was really your shutdown of uh, the uh Shanghai gigafactory which is your highest margin gigafactory. Do keep in mind these margins do include the electric vehicle tax credits right here.

Uh, so they're a little bit elevated. but look at in 2021 we were sitting at 30 to 33 gross vehicle margins Shang Hell, we were at 27.9 percent. We're at 27.9 percent. We missed the estimate of 28.4 percent on margins.

uh for uh for for 2020, uh for Q3 here. Uh, and so the the hope is that maybe we could actually beat here. but uh with with price Cuts Uh, you know even a meat here would be phenomenal. Uh, so let me see if I can get any kind of consensus.

uh, forward here for the quarter which I think will be quite interesting. Let's see here consensus on quarters. So but that margin is going to be in important, especially since we are expecting. oh yeah, here we go.

Okay, uh no. Q3 Okay, there it is. Uh, no, that's cute. Why is there no Q4 estimate? That's quite odd.

Uh I actually have a Q1 estimate of 25.25 provided right now, but I'm not seeing an estimate for Q4. However, if the margin is 25.5 for Q1 Uh, that's actually that I mean the margin should be in excess of of 26 percent expected. uh for Q4. So I'll work on getting a little bit more of an estimate there for automotive gross margin.

But uh, as far as the actual earnings, you'll want to write these down so you can have a little bit of a prep for when that earnings uh report comes out. The Uh guidance is a buck 12 for adjusted EPS Gap EPS a buck four Revenue Which should be relatively accurate because it's a have line number and we already have guidance on how many vehicles were delivered. But then it comes down to energy and that I Do think we're going to start seeing a Slowdown in battery deliveries and energy deployments probably is by Q1, but we'll see if we'll get any negative insight there. Maybe we'll get some mega pack deployments to offset that revenue of 20.6 20.7 billion expected on Top Line Rev net income expected to be 3.98 So if we can get a nice four on that net income I think that would be pretty exciting.

Uh, fascinating. Fascinating here to see and uh, excited to see what we end up getting with margin. But I think margin's probably going to be your biggest concern. And again, I don't actually think it's going to be as bad as folks expect because again, most of the price Cuts were were uh, you know in in basically uh, q1 over here.

So uh, we'll see, but that margin is going to be a big deal I believe the consensus is about 26.4 percent. Uh, right now excluding credits is what I'm able to research here. So 26.4 excluding credits. Let's go ahead and jump for a moment to one of the last pages here, which is where we can get Automotive gross margin excluding credits.

Uh, let's see here. which page was it on? Hmm, should be on one of these. Back Pages here Automotive Margin Excel I Will find it. This is the same bit of cash flows.

This is our balance sheet. One thing we're going to look for on the statement of Cash flows obviously is, uh, the level of free cash flow that we had. Look at this folks cash provided by operating activities. 5.1 billion dollars? you had 3.3 billion dollars of free cash flow Tesla Really, Really incredible.

Extremely low debt. You know I mean I Don't even really consider lease as debt, but other long-term liabilities sitting at 4.3 billion dollars? Uh, that's right here for Oops. Okay, well decided to page away. but anyway, 4.3 billion dollars relatively low over here.

uh for Tesla So we'll see if there's any kind of pay down for that sort of other long-term debt. What do we have? Let's see here we've got. Uh, we'll go ahead and look at energy generation. we'll see that was that was a nice boost in the last quarter coming in at about 1.1 Bill we'll see what kind of movement we have there again.

I am expecting longer term weakness in that segment. Uh, and then Automotive gross margin we know was 27.9 but that includes credits I think I'm just going to go ahead and calculate it myself really quick what it was without credits last time, because uh, that's easy to do. So let's just go ahead and take Automotive gross profit of 5212. let's go ahead and subtract 286 from that.

That brings us down to 4926.. we're going to divide that into revenues. Uh, so divided by 18692. That brings us to about 26.35 without vehicle credits.

So again, 26.35 without vehicle credits was the last one. And the Wall Street consensus right now is looking for about 26.5 without vehicle credits going into the fourth quarter. I Personally am optimistic on that again. I wouldn't YOLO bet on it.

but I'm optimistic. That's clearly something we're going to be looking at. Another thing of course I love looking at is how much are they taking to the bottom line, right? And uh, in this last quarter, we took Three Nine or three, Two nine, Two billion to the bottom line. Three Point Two.

basically 3.3 to the bottom line. If we divide that by revenue of 18, Uh, Six Nine Two. That actually gives you a quarterly net income margin of 17.6 percent. The 14 I usually refer to as an annualized as an annual figure 17.6 Pretty impressive.

So it's gonna be a big day. Going to be a big day for Tesla So fingers crossed. We get some great news here for Tesla but I'm excited and I think there there is reason to be excited. Uh.

anyway, and.