What's going on guys, welcome back to the channel appreciate you guys tuning in with me today, what we're going over is a spy in the nasdaq all right down here. Market is oversold at this white line. The market is at fair value down here. Markets oversold right here, it's at fair value, so if we were to zoom out a little bit more on both of these charts and really take a peek at that, what does it look like, and i know there's a lot of lines here - disregard some of that? Don't worry about it, so this is fair value, fair value, fair value or the mean right, and this would be oversold oversold, oversold, oversold the mean.

So when we think about it, like that, the only thing that's really happened is we had this big bearish sell-off in the market that took everything really oversold. Creating low-risk dip buy opportunities. We went through a big market squeeze rally back to the long-term statistical average, fair value and, if you think about the market as a whole right now, when we last got to the mean or to this price point, we have interest rate hikes coming or supposed to Be coming tapering, no more asset purchases war with ukraine, ukraine, russia, inflation, this that the other greatest economy in the world; that's a joke! So when you think all those things there's not a whole lot, that makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. So when the market was trading back at the long term, statistical average without any other additional bullish catalysts in the market, then what's the point of continuing to buy up or hold when you have the market coming off a big sell-off when it was on sale.

Just returned back to fair value pricing with no bullish catalyst in the market, not a bad reason to sell. Just in that case, anyways markets are currently in a downward motion, so you're not going to get any big bullish activity in the market until minimum the market comes back up and over the price of 443.53. So it's pretty much just this yellow level orange level so that level right there until the markets are up and above and trading above that you can't really see high or low breakouts for the most part, all right and the market will not sell down anymore until It clearly goes below the previous low, which is right here, which is that gray dotted line so until the market goes below that gray dotted line, we're not going to sell off much more until it goes above. This yellow line we're not going to really break up.

So right now you are boxed in this range, and your next breakout happens above or below those points. Okay, all right and when the market does go above or below those points, because it will, it always does all right. Your next target would be the green line. So market snaps here fade drop out.

Your target will be 429.52 all right and vice versa. Market breaks on the upside four four three five three next target up is 450 54., and that would be on the spy all right now we're going to zoom in we're going to take a look at the nasdaq here. The nasdaq has some as more levels but they're pretty much the same so same concept. Here, when you look at the nasdaq, you are in between or boxed into the price of 33834 and three four, eight eight seven until you go above the um, the three four eight, eight seven, you don't have a break on the upside, so you go below it.

On the downside, you don't have a breakout on the downside, so with the way that this is situated, it would be markets break out on the downside, three three eight three four next statistical probability level would probably be somewhere in three twenty seven. Eighty vice versa market breaks up on the upside at some point, three, four, eight eight seven next statistical probability up is going to be around three five, nine four right. In the time being, you could see the market chop in between these two levels before deciding which way it wants to go, but right now these are your two main statistical probability points that are going to give you some fight. Probably so you have it right here.

Four: four: three: five: three right here: four: three: six: five: three: that's the spy nasdaq, three, three, eight, three, four qqq, three, four, eight, eight, seven, all right! Those are your two main price points right now that you'd be kind of eyeballing all right and now, if you do a little bit more here, market is trending in this direction. Okay markets are trending downwards in this direction, all right so until we cross above that, downtrend get above some statistical probabilities. You just keep trading the markets downwards, all right. So another thing: if you're, someone who wants to counter trend bounce or be long bias, your lowest risk opportunity for reversal longs, are typically going to be off these levels, all right so just like you saw it do and that this one wasn't perfect.

We kind of shifted through it came back above it, but, like you, can see how he bounced off. That level then broke. It then went above it. That's not a great example, but you can see this one.

We kind of came right down to that line and shortly after we bounced okay, we came right down into this line shortly after we bounced all right, and so that's the concept right. If you look at the nasdaq, you can see, we came down to these levels and shortly after bounce, we came all the way down to this level shortly after bounce all right. So if you're looking for a bounce move, you don't have a bounce move until you break through here and go to there and then you would have a bounce play. Just like you saw there and just like you saw there and just like you saw there and there all right.

So if you're looking for a bounce trade on the market, you wait for the market to sell down to the next level, otherwise you're looking for a break out play which would be the market clearing above this level or this level all right. If you're someone who wanted to be short, biased, typically, your best entry is going to be on a retest of a level that breaks down. So that would be like this. Where the market breaks down this level, you actually get a retest right there, and then it goes down all right or you see this.

It bounces back up kind of gives, a bigger, retest doesn't quite get there, and then you trade down or like this. You break down here. You come back up re-test, just a little over and back down same concept. Here you break below, come back re-test down, so typically you're going to get your best entries on a retest of a level.

So with that being said, if you're going to be short biased, you typically want to be bearish off the deviations as it retests after a breakdown and if you're going to be bullish for a bounce. Now that we're down trending motion you'd want to be trading or getting long on the first attempt accumulation bounce as the deviation touches on the bottom. So now that we've gone over those longer term trends, we're going to hop into say a five day. One minute now, when we do this, we'll see a little, let's receive probably quite a bit more uh, more levels but anyways.

So when we look at the market like this, you already know that we have this slight little support area here, like we're saying before market. Doesn't break down until we're through that, so for me right now, i'm just trading bearish on the downside or watching things bearish on the downside. Looking for moves below this and for now our support area on the nasdaq is right about that three. Three, eight, three: four! As we discussed before no breakdowns till then so we have levels on the intraday um about 341 3.

42. Then we all have them down there at the three three eight three four area on the nasdaq - and we got some right here at four three: six. Six. Five, you can clearly see why we bounce at the low a day.

Yesterday we had a level there and level here. 438. Another level up here, four, two, four, four: two: six, nine four, four, three, five three and another one up here at four four: five: two and those are all the statistical probabilities for the day. So you guys take care, have a great rest of your day and i'll see you either tomorrow or on an afternoon recap:.