What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in obviously everybody probably knows: there's a lot of things going on in the news headlines coming out: russia, ukraine, united states, this that sanctions not going to get into all of it, but that is What's kind of going on that's what the um that's, what the matrix is currently pushing right now, but aside from that, we are trading at negative three sigma on standard error. Standard error is something i'm working with. You guys will know more, as i know more, but anyways we're trading at negative three sigma for those of you that know what that means. That means high probability of bounces.

That's why we bounced back here and other reasons too, but nonetheless, that's main reason why we probably started getting some buying activity here just yesterday, also because that lines up with the previous bottom, so previous bottom support yada yada. So when you're looking at the market today and you're thinking, oh we're going to sell this down we're going to break this down. Well, i can tell you right now: you're, not until you go below 429.01. Okay.

429.01. Oman, 429.01. Pretty much 429 is the current demand right so until you go below that you're not going to get a break down, okay, not going to get a breakdown all right now, let's look at the chart over here. Sorry, when you think about where 429 is at 429 is like right here.

That's where that big kind of rip to the upside happened. That's where that pullback came down to slightly low and bounce. So, nonetheless, all the demand from the last trading session is kind of right in that 4 29 area. It started down at 4 26's, but based on the time most people figured it out most of the shorts kind of figured it out.

Dip buyers came in most of the people's average. Prices are probably in the 428's to 429 areas. So until you take out all of that demand that was built up from yesterday, you're not going to see a really aggressive breakdown. Now, based on how the market's situated we have supply that exists right around 434, arguably up to like 435..

Yesterday's recommendation on the market was the long will not work. Unless you get acceptance above these levels, you can see the market went to it, but no acceptance. Okay, so we're just below that now so for right now, there's no breakout to the upside unless you're, actually above the 434 high, so basically the pre-market levels and there's no breakdown truly until you're below the 429 80s. So, for now you do have a ranging market from about 434 ish down to say four 430ish slightly below, maybe so nonetheless, you could very well see a four-point ranging market back and forth if the market does not break out of this balance from yesterday, uh one Way or the other, so the reality situation is you couldn't convince me to be swing long, the market unless minimum, we are getting acceptance over 434 and you could not convince me to be swing short the market currently, unless we were actually getting acceptance below 429 area.

So for now i am more on the side of seeing a possible choppy day where we're trying to figure out whether we want to keep sliding or keep breaking out. I think myself, the market is still a little on edge, so no one's quite ready to make the first moves so we'll see. But when we bring back this chart here, standard error, it does say that we're at negative 3, which is generally a high probability bounce area. So, let's build the case that the market is not going to fall through the floor right now and we're going to hold up a little bit longer before falling more.

Let's just say that was going to be the case, then i would expect the bounce that we're currently in to have a max target of 440. go back to here. This bounce went right back to here that green line see how we bounced the blue straight to the green. Then we chopped and then we broke up and went like that, and then we sold down again since we sold down again.

I would not expect this bounce to go back to these highs, because we just did that and then we came back off of it all right. So i would expect that the best case scenario for this bounce is back up to 440. 79. For the time being, once we get back to 440 79, i would assume that we will be met with at least some sort of selling pressure.

Okay. So for now i'm kind of optimistically bullish the market um, but still waiting for some things to happen. Where we're getting above, um, say 434s um and whatnot so again for me to really want to be pressing gas on the long. We need to get back over this 430 for price.

For the time being so we don't have a breakdown unless we're below 429, which a lot of demand was built up there. We don't really have a breakout so we're over the 434s, but nonetheless we are kind of in a higher probability, bounce um area. We actually were yesterday at the lows um but anyways, so that's kind of how the market sits this morning. Hope that helps you guys and i'll see you in the next video take care.