So what did we just hear from Jerome Powell at the conference where he shouted quote, just close the effing door as he was interrupted by climate protesters. just close the door, close the door. Well, we heard Drome Powell say that we have a long way to go, which definitely starts out pretty bearish, especially when he suggests quote. We don't want to be misled by a few months of data.

this started bearish. It's almost like he went in and the other folks at the FED are like yo. When you go in today, everybody's going to be watching you Jpow and you need to say some bearish stuff to balance out the what you caused last week cuz last week you made treasury yields drop from 49 499 at one point, all the way down to 45. Okay, well today they spiked right back up after Jerome B's initial talk right nicely to 46 2ish right around there.

463 464 NASDAQ down, spy down Tesla down and face it's all painful. Okay, so this sounds bad and we heard the general stuff that we've heard before. like hey, the first part of getting inflation down was the supply chain rebound, which took longer than we thought. more coid waves than we thought.

The second part is going to be having to have sufficiently restrictive monetary policy. Okay, great. we've heard all that before. So what is some of the new stuff that we heard from Jpow here? Well, for me, I Loved hearing him say buy Kevin's courses with the price going up Friday that coupon is Juicy and you got to get in before Friday Go to meet Kevin.com to check out all the new Bruce Pro courses.

The second thing that I really loved hearing J Po say was will the neutral rate of interest rise So Ken Rogo actually talked about this I was watching the live uh the video but also the the uh live notes on this. Rogoff thinks that the answer is yes, that the neutral rate of interest is going to go up substantially because of De Globalization and green energy. So green energy de globalization and high spending on defense three factors that could actually leave interest rates higher for the rest of the decade. Ken Rogoff thinks Economist from Harvard Drome pow's response because drum Pow was questioned, hey, well, are you going to raise the R star? You know, Does that mean we're going to have to have a higher neutral rate? Does that mean rates are going to basically have to be higher forever? and Dron P's kind of like will Neutral Raise up Uh, who cares, We have models, but really, we're just going to be practical about it.

Inflation Down good. Don't have to raise rates more jobs stable. We hold stable jobs start turning over we cut. That's basically what he can conveyed during this conference.

I Did think it was fascinating though to hear him basically take this idea about will neutral rates rise and just throw it aside. Just didn't care at all about that. So I do did think that was very interesting inter in. he also says that we are probably at sufficiently restrictive levels.

This is pretty key. Uh, both of these things actually somewhat bullish. Suggesting that Drum Powell is aware of that two-sidedness of Fed policy on one hand suggesting, hey, look, you know, maybe maybe savings created more of a lag and therefore, we've been structurally resistant to higher interest rates. But as we kind of watch, we want to make sure we don't go too far.

That was yet another bullish thing that he said, because previously he said, well, if we go too far, we could just cut. Now he's saying quote, we don't want to go too far Rates are probably sufficiently restrictive. We have a mandate for an equal outcome between Max employment and price stability. These were definitely softeners to his initial response of we have a long way to go and you know monetary policy might have to do the the rest of the work since Supply chains have done their work and now there's the rest to do so.

we'll see personally. My takeway on this is patience. This process is taking a whole lot longer than anybody thought it would take and it's probably going to continue taking a whole lot longer. I Think patience is really important in this sort of environment.

Uh, and not to be Reckless and to minimize your potential risk for any kind of loss I Do think there's a cycle of probably tax loss harvesting that's going to happen between the next 5 weeks here, as we get into to the close of the year Uh, five. there's about seven weeks left in the year. Uh, but buckle up I think we're going to get through it I Strongly believe in the long term. the Nike Swoosh will be accurate.

Uh and uh. I Don't think we're going to revisit the lows of last year knock on wood. Uh, the news. You know this.

This positioning from drum Powell uh and the FED is not horribly bearish. Drw Powell could have been substantially more bearish here. Uh, of course his initial comments did drive up yields. So you've definitely got some fluctuation here, especially since you had Ken Griffin come out this morning really Echo The ideas of De Globalization, which Ken Rogoff talked about and his take is hey, look, everybody's trying to De globalize.

That's going to leave rates higher for the rest of the decade. That was Kenny G This morning, Rogov kind of echoed that uh, I've always called this reglobalization which is a shifting and rebuilding of Supply chains but not necessarily deglobalization. Then again, who knows. lot of uncertainty.

And like Ken Roov said in this conference, this is probably one of the most uncertain times that we have seen in decades and it kind of made me think there for a moment. Wow. You know, like when Leman Brothers collapsed and the housing crisis was occurring. It was kind of like, all right, We know, we're effed, you know, and everything goes to crap.

And it's like your classic kind of recession. The FED has to come in and bail everyone out February of 2009 and the pain is over, right? So it's kind of like you have this this 9mon period of pain now. We've actually been at it longer than 2008. If you think about it, we've had Drome Powell creating pain since Q4 of 2021 December of 2021.

We're coming up on two years of a painful Market two freaking years, man. And and nobody knows when it's going to come to an end Because it's not clear that the FED can just come bail us out because then you have the risk of, you know inflation again. So I mean even the IMF uh individual who was speaking here, she suggested that uh, stagflation is a scenario that cannot be ruled out, and that is highly atypical to have a Slowdown in inflation occurring without a significant blow to the labor market. But because of that, we can basically keep rates higher for longer.

So kind of wild to think about those things. Now if we look at the 102 to look at the yield curve, uh, you've got I Mean just to clarify that, what's Wild is how long this pain has been going on, right? That's the wild part. And it's like when's it going to end And people like I don't know. Maybe maybe March maybe January maybe may maybe the end of next year? Who knows.

Maybe it will be a recession? There's a lot of fear. Uh, right now rate cuts only being priced into about 4.6% by the end of next year, which is like nothing. It's like 75 bips of a rate cut. you know, not pricing in any more rate increases.

That Fed term rate capped out at 535 5375 puts us at Max So we're really not expecting anything here. and uh yeah, I mean I think the only thing we could oil fortunately under 80 bucks. That's great. Uh, gold.

retreated again a little bit. I think The only thing that we could say with certainty. The only thing that we could say with certainty is that the price of the course is going up Friday night. So you got any questions? Send us an email, send us an email over at uh staff atme Kevin.com we can help you out.

Thank you so much for being here! I'm going to go through the rest of the Elon pod and I'll probably post a video of someone. just my clips of it. So uh. with that said, even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, licensed real estate broker, and becoming a stock broker, this video is neither personalized Financial or real estate advice for you.

It is also not tax legal or otherwise personaliz advice for you. This video provides generalized perspective, information and commentary. Third party content shall not be deemed endorsed by me and shall not be deemed reasonably sufficient for the purpose of evaluating security. Personally operate in ETF and am not related to any issuers or market makers and any kind of links might be things that lead to lead to us making money.

duh. See you.