Hey everyone: okay, a few things to talk about so yesterday i talked it was a red day yesterday and usually on red days, if i say something positive, i'm just a chill for my stocks or whatever freaking haters. But anyway, one of the recurring comments on my video yesterday was that well kevin. Of course, spending is up, because if inflation is up, things are more expensive and therefore spending is up. So we got to break this apart and talk about that.

We're going to talk about a huge catalyst that actually happened yesterday and uh kind of a lot of us. I don't think realized it, and it might be a reason as to why the market's green at the same time as those 10 years are rising again. So, let's talk about this first, we need to break apart this. This thesis that, oh absolutely consumers are spending more solely because prices are up so an easy way to look at this.

In my opinion, is this: let's say you have a thousand dollars a month for uh, consumer essentials and discretionaries. Maybe i don't know outside of your rent, 500 of that or for essentials for yourself and uh 500 or for discretionaries right, let's just say so now you have 500 to spend on discretionaries, which could be restaurants junk from etsy new shoes. I don't know, save a couple months and buy a inexpensive computer or whatever right, okay. So what happens when there's inflation? Well, when there's inflation, you might still have you probably still have inflation doesn't take away your dollars, it just makes them worth less right.

You still have that thousand dollars to spend, however you're getting less stuff, so maybe, instead of saving for two months for computer, you have to save three months, which now means a month went by that you weren't able to buy new nike shoes or something else see When inflation happens, it's not so much a matter of you spending more money, it's more of a matter of you getting less now. This is different for essentials. Right, if you go to a grocery store, yeah you're going to have to spend more money on essentials, but when consumer spending is going up for non-essentials, it's a sign that consumers are optimistic. It's a sign that consumers are saying.

No, you know what we're not worried about inflation being so entrenched that we think inflation's going to go up forever, uh and we're back to the 70s and early 80s, where we left the gold standard and oh my gosh. The dollar was going to become completely worthless. We're gon na have monetary regime change. You know like the raidalio or whatever uh vision.

I don't think it's going to happen at least not any time soon and by soon i mean like the next decades. That's a cool car yeah. So anyway uh. This is a very important thing to consider when you are an investor looking at inflation data and you're.

Looking at okay, what's the consumer doing oh they're spending more now sure, partly there could be this rationalization that okay yeah i mean, maybe it's a mix of both right. I ran a poll on twitter and some of you a lot of you thought, okay. Well, it's probably a mix of both, but if you read the comments yesterday, it seemed like people were unanimously under the impression that consumer spending was only up that banks were reporting. Consumers were spending more and that banks are reporting that consumers actually have more money or are expected to have more money in their bank accounts this year, uh because inflation's up it doesn't work that way.

It doesn't work that way, that's wrong. It does not work that way so uh this is. This is actually very, very positive that when we break it apart and we think about inflation, we think about okay. People maybe are spending more to either continue this lifestyle of consuming uh and they're they're purposefully.

Finding more money to spend more to continue getting the same amount of goods, yeah sure inflation could drive the need, but they are willing to do that and they are consciously willing to spend more on non-essentials, which is a great sign for trying to prevent a recession. Now i do think that uh internationally we're going to have some major issues with gdp in the course member live stream. This morning we were talking about police helicopter in the course member live stream. This morning we were talking about global gdp and the imf's reductions for gdp forecasts, and look it's it's all a disaster.

It's all a problem globally. We're gon na have massive issues, but i also posted on twitter, don't bet against america, and i believe that i really believe you do not want to bet against america and this sort of economy, and so what is that catalyst that happened yesterday? That a lot of us kind of forgot about yeah, so by the way my office is a disaster right now, because i kind of tore it apart uh i got bored of my set, so i'm making it new and i've also got bored of streaming on a Mac because my mac sucks uh and then i sold all my apple stock - okay, well, that's a different topic, but anyway uh so the catalyst that happened yesterday was tax day. A lot of people made a lot of money in 2021. Oh did i mention.

No. I didn't mention it yet: oh this slide's wet this sucks anyway. If uh, you want to know more about this wet slide. Uh, keep in mind that there is a coupon code for the amazing programs on building your wealth that expires tomorrow, tesla earnings day.

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So, thank you to those of you who say that it's an honor, so what's the catalyst well tax day? Okay, so why does that matter? Well, a lot of big money made a lot of money in 2021 because people were able to potentially take gains from 2020 investments in 2021. The real estate market killed it. A lot of people made a lot of money in 2021 uh in 2020, not only because of stimulus, but also because of investments. They, they were great two great years, two phenomenal years.

2020 was better than 2021, but still two phenomenal years, and so i just paid lots of money in taxes, uh close to 10 million dollars in taxes and and we might end up having to pay even a little bit more once we finalize everything, uh kind of Crazy but uh i'll post, those on twitter probably later today, so that way you could see the receipts screenshots or it didn't happen right can't really do that right now, but anyway uh. It's no surprise to me that yesterday was a red day and then today is is green, because all right tax day is over. This is wonderful. This is phenomenal uh.

So what do we have going forward, though this week? Well, we've got some really important earnings. We've got um, netflix is going to set the stage here. We've got a bunch of consumer staples reporting this week as well. We had johnson johnson this morning.

They actually lowered guidance a little bit, but a lot of them has to do with the vaccine and i'm starting to read their earnings. Call nothing super exciting that i'm seeing about the consumer and the j j, but we'll see from some of the other consumer staples reporting. Netflix is obviously going to be big, especially for disney after that miss in q1. I wouldn't be surprised if uh we get some nice beats and that's what i'm hoping for, because we had ugly ugly uh earnings results for netflix that really set off a horrible q1 uh.

Well, it's q4 reported in q1 earnings season now we're in q2 reporting q1 and i'm quite optimistic. Now i don't want to sound. Like you know, permabull uh, i still recommend stay out of margin. If you're in margin, you better have a piggy bank to get out of it right away, uh like, for example, i tiptoed slightly into margin, but that's only because i'm waiting for some real estate transactions to close and then i'm getting out of that again uh, which Is totally fine, you know, that's that's money that i expect to come and it's it's not that big of a deal uh, but i would not be going into margin to buy stocks, although i mean, if you were going to make bets on the market, i'd rather Make bets on the market at people make fun of me for this too.

The qqq fibonacci at bouncing off at 23.6. Hey, we got some. Some nice call options on qqq, so maybe i'm a little biased, but you know we'll see. Hopefully, we get not only a good confirmed bounce today, but that we have a really green week this week and we get uh.

We get some great earnings reports so we'll see i'll be covering netflix later today. Do keep in mind as this 10 year rises, the housing market is going to come under pressure and that could affect consumer spend though, but that's going to take a while. It could take probably a yeah 9 months to 12 months for consumers to actually react to housing values, potentially going down uh even slightly right. So that's not sort of a larger near-term catalyst, a bigger catalyst right now, or obviously ukraine and the disaster and the don bus, which we expected that this is all coming prior to uh victory day may 9th that that's a big catalyst to get the fomc meeting On the fourth cpi and jobs data before and after these dates are kind of intertwined in the first couple weeks of may so, you've got you've, got a lot of um a lot of catalysts coming up, but uh this this next uh next couple weeks.

Earnings season here, in my opinion, is gon na tell us: are we gon na be able to get through all those catalysts uh without a hitch? I suspect the answer is yes, no guarantees, of course, but if we get really strong earnings here, we're going to plow right through whether the fed raises 50 or not uh. You know and remember. This is another big thing too. In other words, we're going to plow through optimistically one of the things that everybody forgets about the fed is the fed doesn't want to use their tools they have to and they will raise rates, but they don't want to have to use their tools to affect the Economy, they want to just be able to talk, because if they can send, you know ballard out and freak out the market a little bit uh and and some of these hawks out and rates go up and the economy tightens and demand wanes a little bit they're.

Actually accomplishing their mission without doing anything, and that is a surefire way to uh to to win for the fed and they realize how powerful they are now with just their words. So pretty excited about that uh. In other words, that, because we've seen so much tightening over the last few weeks and and red really coming out of the end of march, which we you know we expected, i thought we were gon na run - maybe another five percent on the fib uh. We didn't get fully to that, two-thirds on qqq.

We got to about 60 but um. Hopefully now we get a nice rebound off of this and uh and and most of the tightening's already been priced in, and then the fed talks to us at the beginning of may about exactly how hey market's already tightened quite a bit. We're happy with this we're starting to see core cpi go down whatever pce numbers uh settling down. That's their favored uh inflation measure anywho.

These are just some thoughts on the morning. Good luck out there. I hope you make some money and thanks for watching, check out those programs on building your wealth. Remember every single one of them comes with a course member live streams, and if i had to pick one right now, i'd probably go zero to millionaire real estate.

Investing because, if you're watching this there's a good chance, i would say probably i don't know - maybe leave a comment down below, but my guess is maybe 60 of you don't own real estate. You should all be in zero to millionaire real estate like take take 12 years of of uh knowledge in in the real estate market, uh, going through going through crazy markets, uh and up markets and down markets and uh, and apply that to building your wealth. You'll love it alright. Folks, we'll see you bye,.

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