What's up grandma's guys here so since the beginning of time, investors have been trying to beat the market using everything from technical analysis, hedge fund recommendations, professional stock pickers and even animals who are often found to do even better than the most experienced traders. But even though all of these are fun in the short term, almost none of them consistently beat the market every single time, or so we thought. Over the weekend, they came across a series of posts from the reddit user, nob joss, who spent the last year analyzing hundreds of thousands of data sets to find a blueprint that consistently outperforms the s. P.

500 and i'll be honest. I think you might be on to something, and it's a lot easier than you expect, so we're going to analyze all the public trades made by members of congress every buy and sell recommendation made by jim kramer. Every crash prediction made by michael, bury over 66 000, buy and sell recommendations made by financial experts and then finally, the motley fool recommendation since 2013, even though they're technically sponsoring this video and have absolutely no idea that i'm putting them here anyway, i'll link the knob Jaws information down below in the description for anyone interested because he gets full credit for all the information in this video and if you appreciate the insane level of detail that goes into something like this, it would mean a lot to me if you destroyed the like Button for the youtube algorithm and subscribe. That's all i ask so thank you guys so much and let's begin first, let's look through one of the most recognizable investors on the planet, who's bond with a goatee, and that would be jim cramer for those not familiar.

He hosts a very popular tv series on cnbc called mad money through his incessant yelling animated motions and stock predictions in terms of what he thinks you should buy and sell now, keep in mind he's not just some random dude on tv who says he knows more Than the federal reserve he's a former stock broker and hedge fund manager, who graduated harvard with more than 50 years of investing experience, so you would think that his recommendations would be way better than the random guy on a subway who told you to buy luck and Coffee because it was about to moon right well, thankfully, we could find out, because every single one of the 725 recommendations are publicly listed in 2021 on the day that they were mentioned and from there we could do the math to see just how well his recommendations Performed against the s p 500, and whether or not he is someone we should actually take advice from now. Again. Not just did all the work here so full credit to him, but he found that overall, jim cramer made 651 buy recommendations and 74 sell recommendations. Year to date, with each of them analyzed over a day week month and until present day now, it was found that if you had bought every single one of the single stock recommendations and then pulled out the next day, the cumulative returns would have added up to A quite impressive 555, however, the weekly performance is a little lackluster, adding up to a cumulative 42 percent and after a month his returns added up to be a negative 223 roi, while being wrong more than he was right in terms of his sell recommendations, 57 and A half percent of the stocks he mentioned dropped in price the next day with a cumulative return of negative 118.9 percent.

However, over a longer stretch of time, only 42 of his cell recommendations were correct, but with all of that said, it's important for me to mention a few things in terms of whether or not jim cramer could beat the market first. This only looked at 2021 returns, so previous years could make this look a lot better or worse. Second, cumulative return skews the information by adding returns together, making it seem a lot better than it actually is. It's kind of like saying if you bought 10 stocks and each of those stocks is up 5, even though your overall return is still 5.

Your cumulative return is now 50, so another reddit user, shadowy insights adjusted this figure to account for the median return against the s p, 500 and sure enough. Within a day, 54 of his recommendations beat the market, but within a month that declined all the way down to 35, which means he was wrong more than he was right and third, this data could be easily skewed because millions of people see and mimic his buy And sell recommendations effectively causing the outcome he describes. In fact, this is such a common occurrence that it's actually called the kramer bounce or the cramer effect, while stocks move an extra three to five percent following the 12 days after his recommendation point being, even though his buy and sell recommendations do perform well. In the short term, much of that is likely because his own audience acts on that information and causes it to be self-fulfilling, but over a longer term, at least in 2021.

It appears as though jim cramer does not beat the market. Next, let's look at another beloved part of our community and that would be members of congress, but thanks to the stock act of 2012, members of congress must disclose anytime they buy or sell a stock to help combat insider trading. Of course, they're still free to buy or sell whatever they want, but, as those reports are made public, anyone is free to follow along their exact investment strategy. So did they beat the stock market? Well, nearly 10 000 trades were made throughout congress over a two-year period, and if we narrow those down to only the largest transactions, it was found that only 1375 of those were above 15 000.

Each of those trades were benchmarked across a month, a quarter and day until present, and the results were pretty surprising. Over a month. Their stock pick beat the s p 500 by an average of point one two percent over a quarter. They beat that benchmark by one point: three, four percent, and until date, their stock picks outperformed by almost six percent.

Of course, if you're thinking, but graham this is really good information, i could just copy your trades exactly and make a ton of money. This would be easy well, not so fast, even though they have to disclose every single stock they buy and sell. They have a full 30 days to do so, and the median disclosure is made 28 days after making a trade, so that could mean you're buying in at a very different price than what they are. However, since congress all seems to be investing for the long term, even accounting for the delay, it was found that they did beat the s p 500 over the two years.

This were analyzed, although they really haven't, beat it by enough to make it worth your consideration. Not only that, but in order to accumulate that slight advantage, you would have to buy everything that they do in equal proportion, meaning you would have to invest in all of those 1375 stocks in order to achieve the average. So practically it's really just not worth it. It's also worth considering that maybe they have some other inside knowledge or conflicts of interest that we don't know about, like senator perdue, who outperformed nearly all of his peers throughout almost 2 500 trades, including companies that stood to benefit from upcoming policy changes, even though he Was investigated by the sec, no charges were filed so overall the verdict is, they have beat the s p 500 by a slight advantage, but it's really not by much and it's not worth your time to try to mimic their trades in order to beat the market.

So if congress could slightly beat the market what about financial analysts, surely they do a better job because that's their full-time occupation right after all, it was noted that goldman sachs charges, thirty thousand dollars for access to its basic research, jp morgan charges, ten thousand dollars and Barclays is charging up to four hundred and fifty five thousand dollars for its equity research package, which come on that's basically like a fully loaded lamborghini anyway. The premise of this is simple: if you paid for these reports and then followed their recommendations over 10 years, would that be enough to beat the market? Now it's important to mention that, prior to this, no trackers followed the performance of this data, so our reddit user decided to build one, and this information is incredible. He looked through a total of 66 516 recommendations made by analysts over the last 10 years. Throughout s, p 500 companies with more than 35 000 by 27 000 hold and 4 000 cell recommendations each analyzed over a week month and quarters, since all of these reports are available four times a year.

Now, surprisingly, within a week, these recommendations outperformed the s. P. 500 by 40 and throughout the next month and quarter that analysis outperformed the s p 500 by over 20. Now the cell recommendations, on the other hand, did not fare so well.

It was found that within a week, the cell recommendations did perform slightly worse than the s p 500, but over a month and a quarter, their average sell recommendations wound up beating the s p 500, which meant it did the exact opposite of what they expected to Happen as far as which banks wound up doing the best by far that award goes to barclays, who's consistently beat out both their competition and the market quarter over quarter. However, just like anything, there is some fine print that we have to be made aware of first, because this calculation measures the percentage increase against the s p. 500. The actual increase is not as big as you would expect in this case, as you could see, after a quarter, the recommendations went up an average of four point: eight five, eight percent - during a time where the s p 500, went up three point: nine five: six Percent, which is only a difference of point nine percent now.

Second, some of these recommendations were made around a positive earnings report which could skew those numbers to look a lot better if a buy recommendation was issued before market open. That also means properly timing. These trades is almost impossible, the third, when accounting for the cost and time of this analysis, it was said that you would need a minimum of 20 million dollars invested to earn enough of a return to justify the amount of money needed to pay for the reports And fourth, this analysis only covers the last 10 years, which has largely been a non-stop bull market, as everything has gone up in price. So this could very well change during an economy that doesn't just go straight up, especially considering that 40 of the recommendations were to simply hold in fifth.

There very well could be a kramer effect in the sense that their recommendation causes the outcome that they say is going to happen either way. I would say that there is merit to these reports and some could have very well outperformed the market over a 10-year period, but accurately timing. These trades for a marginal difference in the market would be nearly impossible and i think, for the average person it would be a very difficult way to try to beat the market. Now.

Let's take a look at the sponsor of today's video, the motley fool they have. No idea that i'm including them in here, but i think this would be a really fun test, just to see how this pans out and for those not aware the motley fool, is a stock market subscription service that analyzes the market and then sends out recommendations on A regular basis now, even though i don't follow them consistently, i do read the reports and i find value in their analysis, so i figured this would be interesting to dive into deeper and when they told me that they wanted to be a part of an upcoming Video, they asked me to send five of my own stock picks to see what they thought of them. So i sent them a handful of recommendations that i thought would do well, including an etf, a software company, that i used myself a few others and a riskier one just for fun. That way they could create a report that includes all of my reasons for liking.

Those companies, plus their own critiques and thoughts about each of my stock picks, which you could read for free, delivered right to your inbox. Using the link down below in the description, you'll also get access for a special offer to join their motley full stock advisor a subscription stock, picking service where members gain access to a library of their stock recommendations, along with two new stock recommendations. Every single month aimed at helping you build your net worth several of those picks have performed exceptionally well and the more information you have in terms of what's going on with the market, the better. So to get that report for free and check out the motley fools top stock picking service, make sure to visit, full.com gram or use the link down below in the description.

But with all of that, i found it very interesting that our own reddit stock analyzer did a full report to see just how well they did and for the motley fool. It's quite interesting. In this case, he analyzed the premium subscription in canada and tracked the total of 91 stock recommendations for us-listed companies since 2013.. The motley fool does say that their recommendations are meant to be long-term plays held for at least five years.

Although for this calculation, the prices were analyzed over one quarter, one year, two years and until now beginning on the morning after the recommendation just to see how well they've held up as you can see, there has been a considerable positive difference between the motley fools recommendations And that of the s p 500.. However, it was mentioned that there were a few outliers with more than 100 return. That did skew this average and their cell recommendations didn't exactly bode well during a bull market where you would have wound up making more money. Just not selling their recommendations, noah has reported.

One of the major contributors to this difference was that they issued a sell recommendation for tesla in 2019 for a good profit, but they later missed out on tesla's 2020 rally. He also noted that a separate peer-reviewed study from penn state also analyzed their stock recommendations from 2002 through 2016, spread across 340 recommendations and found that overall, they did outperform the market. However, it was also found that there is a significant market reaction on the day. The recommendation is announced and the subsequent two days, which indicates a favorable reaction by investors to the recommendation, although long term, their recommendations did end up performing quite well, even accounting for the outliers, which is surprising, but, as i mentioned before, over a long period of time.

These could look quite different, so just keep that in mind. It's also important to look at risk anytime. You invest, and that was not analyzed here, but their analysis does give them a pass, and if you want to see what they said about my own stock recommendations, the link is down below in the description. And, lastly, i thought this one would be fun analyzing.

How many times michael bury predicted a crash and how many times he was right now, if you're not familiar with the man, the myth, the legend michael, bury, he correctly predicted the 2008 housing crash and then was subsequently featured in the movie. The big short starring christian bale, so our reddit analyzer, set out to find the truth, does michael bury predict to crash and get lucky or is there actual truth to his predictions being correct now, in order to fact check these findings, each of his predictions were charted Along with every single stock, he said was going to fall benchmarked against the s p 500., as nav just noted, his first verifiable prediction came in may of 2017, where he warned that we could expect a global financial meltdown in world war. Three, and in his exact words, i didn't go out looking for this, i just did the math. Every bit of my logic is telling me the global financial system is going to collapse.

Since then, the s p 500 has returned 93 and there is no threat of another world war. After that, in september of 2019, he said that index funds were the next market bubble and were distorting prices across the stock market, but so far that prediction is not panned out and since then the s p 500 is up another 50. He then went on to criticize tesla stock's performance in december of 2020 and that it would collapse like the housing bubble. He subsequently shorted the stock, and even though we don't know his exact entry point in the short term, he was right, as the price fell to a low of 563 dollars, although to date had you just held, you would now be up another six percent, but then, Once again in february he said the market is dancing on a knife's edge and he is being ignored again, but again, the market is up another 11, since he said that, but it does appear that, according to this analysis, his only correct prediction was calling bitcoin's price Peak around 64, 000 and right now we're down about 30.

So from all of his predictions, he is wrong significantly more than he's right, but let's be real. He only needs to be right once in a big way to get his own movie and achieve worldwide notorieties. The guy, who correctly predicted the top and before we wrap this up. Obviously none of this is possible without the help of nob jaws.

Who again is super appreciative that i'm referencing his work, even though he wants to appear out of the spotlight? But by and large very few people in companies can consistently beat the market risk, adjusted returns need to be accounted for and for the vast majority of people out there who just want to invest as passively as possible. The s p 500 is still the holy grail to follow. Now, if you're interested in a video covering his other analysis, including whether or not hedge funds could beat the market, if it's possible to make more money investing in ipos or several other really interesting topics that i spent the entire weekend researching. Just let me know by either hitting the like button or commenting down below, i'm also going to link all of his information down below in the description he is not affiliated with any of this.

He did not ask for any of this. I just thought it would be the nice thing to do to give him credit where credit is due so anyway, with that said, you guys thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it as always make sure to destroy the like button. Subscribe button and notification bell also feel free to add me on instagram, i post it pretty much daily.

So if you want to be a part of it, there feel free to add me there. As on my second channel, the graham stefan show i post there every single day - i don't post here. So if you want to see a brand new video for me every single day, make sure to add yourself to that and, lastly, speaking of all this stock talk. If you want a free stock, that is now worth all the way up to a thousand dollars, use the link down below in the description and sign up for public using the code, graham and plus, i am posting all of my own stock trades on there.

So if you want to be a part of it feel free to use that link down below in the description, let me know which free stock you get. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.