Or it would go to the president for his signature, allowing washington to avoid a government shutdown at midnight tonight, as the house now has the votes it needs in order to pass the government funding bill back over to you old news. Hey everyone meet kevin here so uh earlier i posted a video talking about the uh. What's going on in congress, i encourage you to check that out. So if you're curious about what the heck is going on, uh check out the video from today, it gives you a full breakdown of all the things, not just avoiding the shutdown, but also what's going on with the debt ceiling.

What's going on with three and a half trillion dollar plan, what's going on with the uh one trillion dollar plan, all of these things broken down into that concise manner in the other. Video, what's fascinating, though, is at the same time we're getting this news about the budget uh you know passing or whatever the house we kind of already knew this uh, the uh. The s p is actually rotating down a little bit here into the close, which we've seen this uh for the past few days in uh in the stock market. It's actually been this entire week.

It's just been sort of the mo of the market that you have a dip in the middle of the day, and the last three trading days, we've generally see the seeing the s p fall to levels as low as the middle of the day low right at The end of the day, now we've only got 20 minutes left to go so we'll see, but take a look at that here. You had that middle of the day, dip right here that ten o'clock dip uh california time followed by sort of that ten o'clock dip. Eastern time and that we closed the day with a sharp sell-off as low as what we did the day before that was yesterday, you go over here same thing. You had that middle of the day, 10 o'clock dip followed by in this case an 11 o'clock dip and then a sell-off again going into the close as low as what we had before go to monday.

And what do we have at monday? Well, uh. We have a chart that we need to zoom in on. That's what we have look at this on monday. You have the morning dip right right after the open, you've got the dip in the middle of the day right at 10 o'clock again and then look at that at the close you're literally at those lows again like it is freaky like it is obvious that there Is a lot of algorithmic trading happening here that there's some institutional money, uh that that is uh executing trades at certain times in the day? But the fact that we continue to go to lows at the end of the day as low as what we get in the middle of the day is is a quite fascinating pattern, in my opinion, so we'll see what happens today, uh but uh.

So far, we uh have been consistent with this pattern, the entire week and in terms of being a trader, it's fantastic, to know as a trader. So i highly encourage you to watch for this. If you are a trader, uh no guarantees, but i would not be shocked to see spy at 230 here. Obviously, right now we're at about 432, so it wouldn't take about a half percent move in the next 19 minutes to make that a reality.

Okay, so in the meantime, we have hot aid mining of 7.8. Today, a nice little recovery here, virgin galactic after that faa case was closed up with nice, 12.7 percent. Somebody please call paper hander, mr tremoth, then we've got amc up. Uh 9.2.

All of a sudden. Here, 38.8 percent: it's good for the hodlers, a firm coming right back to 120. This is a really good test of the market here that it seems like when a firm falls. It falls to right now that 108 to 112 level that obviously could get broken.

But looking at the hour chart here, uh we uh - we here recently had it's still too early to really draw lines here, but we did get a test here to 112, 110. 112-Ish. 113 again, so we're definitely testing in this area. Right now, as we have had some pretty strong run-ups here again, wouldn't surprise me after large run-ups to see a salaf, i did by the way uh gary roberts make a video on exactly what joe manchin's demands were.

So if you want to see that make sure to check that video out uh all right, so here hmm do you think hedge funds sell? Then us retail investors buy off the dip that hedge fund sell again at the close of the day um. I think funds get forced to sell when their clients paper hand. I don't think that hedge funds want to sell you know with, unless, of course, they have a direct strategy going in, but hedge funds just like etfs, they have to liquidate if their clients withdraw and many clients are just full-on weenie babies and they can't they can't Stand uh uh, you know not uh, not not seeing stocks only go up which wow what a surprise stocks apparently don't only go up uh but anyway, uh. Look at that dick's sporting goods down point eight five percent, as well, along with the dutch bros over here nordstrom, it's a little bit of pain in the markets here, but uh again we're right now eyeing to see what's going to happen at the close we've got.

Ethereum back over 3 000 trying to find bitcoin, i did buy bitcoin, ethereum and cardano yesterday a little bit of a rotation down here now, but uh. That was, after a nice run-up that we had earlier today, which is great back over 44k there, but now sitting at 43.6 coffee break. That's level. 99 range coffee right there, that's good, all right, lmnd uh, look at that! We got lemonade popping back off nice.

It did a little bit of dip buying on the lemonade. We are now looking for some other opportunities. Uh. Let's see here: virgil, okay, dq energy, popping up nice how's baba.

Doing. Let's take a look at that um baba up about a half percent today on these chinese stocks doing neo only up about 1.52, i did buy neo yesterday, i'm bullish end phase 143, so back up did have a little bit of red. Earlier in the day, i did also buy end phase uh today, uh, actually i bought it. I'm pretty sure i bought it right in the midst of the dip.

I was at breakfast with lauren. Let me see here. I bought matterport uh in the dip matterport right. Yeah this is when we were breakfast: 9.

30.. That's crazy, yeah we get to breakfast and i just sat max down and i was feeding him some pancake and then i look and i'm like. Oh, this is a nice middle of the day, 10 o'clock. Dip again.

Don't mind if i do uh and uh same same thing over here on end phase, i bought the 148 dip. As usual, all my alerts go out to those of you in the stocks, psychology of money group, but look at this again. The end of the day sell down, so you might get another opportunity here again to go shopping a little bit all right, so twitter set to verify nft, so you can display them on your account. Now that would be interesting, see now you're, actually creating some value.

Uh bestowing value, but if them verifying nfts, is anything like them. Verifying users, it's gon na, be a total fraud, total scam, uh, twitter demos, potential, ethereum, nft verification system, um, twitter nft owners may soon be able to display their collection of digital collectibles, while proving authenticity on twitter, um software engineer, working on bringing crypto and nfts to Twitter demonstrated functionality that would allow users to add entities to their accounts. Oh yeah, that's why i'm currently working on some experimentation on integrating nft and twitter first experiment would be to download your nft from openc and add it to your avatar and banner profile. I can send you a demo very soon.

I mean working on an experiment, i suppose is different than actually having something but uh. It is interesting. Let's see come on. Okay, there's really, no other detail here, all right, whatevs, okay, so uh.

That is very interesting, though. Do you think volvo polestar chinese ownership is another bullish factor for el lucid? I don't really know if they're that connected no palantir lost an ice contract who needs ice anyway. I'll look it up. Let me see, i mean that's how it works.

You know you get contracts, you lose contracts, that's called the nature of the beast. You don't only win. Palantir may lose ice contract providing falcon system, it just says: may uh a pounder may lose lucrative ice contract ice has been buying falcon a data mining analytics tool that it's been using to organize. Hmm, so uh all right.

What else we got here? Well, we have 13 minutes to the close and we're going to see if this today is today going to break the cycle of the s p selling down to the low of the day and so far since i started this live stream. The answer is: no. The s p is literally like you can't make this stuff up. You know it was just.

It was just 10 minutes ago that i'm like. I wonder if the s p 500 is going to sell off towards the end of the day, just like it did on monday, tuesday and wednesday, and we were literally looked at it happen on the other days, and it's like it's always the institutions coming in to Dump at the end of the day and uh i i personally enjoy it. I just hope some of the individual stocks go down with it, so i can actually go shopping for something, but right now end phase is not doing that kind of dip beyond what i was able to buy this morning, matterport's not not playing along here, a firm Slightly paying along amc is slightly playing along nice pump by the way. Look at that bounce off the line.

Folks, there's your technical analysis for you at work. You want to make money with ta there. You go bounces right off the lines, all right, t right, desk, yeah, i'm not really seeing rotations to the downside, fastly how fast they've been doing the last few years. Our fastly is kind of continuing to get i rotate down here.

I thought it was lower than that now well, hippos up a bit piton win a win actually went positive today, nice. Let's look at the losers again here. We've got 12 minutes to go yeah a lot of retail today: retail retail retail retail, robin hood playboy walt disney poshmark pounds here down about 155. matterport; okay, all right! Oh, it is tesla down as well tesla.

This is down point three: nine right now, adobe down fractionally as well. Google, tiny little portion here these have had some incredible runs too, though, so i don't mind being able to pick up some cheaper prices here. Uh. It's good, though i like seeing dips like this very good dip more.

Please give me some more discounts, i'm waiting spy, let's see how it's doing and down to the one minute. It's still going. It's still going red, it's so far. It's following the script we'll see.

If it continues to uh crash into the close uh, why are you talking about the big scale, because i actually have a video coming up? Oh my gosh get out of here, dude, okay, i don't. I don't just spew videos without doing research. I've got the whole lawsuit and everything it's coming. So thanks for your ten dollars to plant the seed of distrust and mistrust, it's not cool uh! You know just chill out so uh all right there.

It goes s p, falling s p falling! This is as expected. Is it gon na go to a full one percent down? I wouldn't be surprised if it does technically, let's draw the line. Technically, we should bounce at 4 30. uh.

I'm gon na delete this line because uh later because it's it's really just like a temporary. It's not gon na. I don't think it's gon na be relevant tomorrow. So let me just give it a crap color there we go here.

We go look at that. It's it's going to it! It's kind of funny to see this. So it's literally the same thing. Every day this week, oh that's a joke all right.

How are some of these ricohs nordstroms down? Eight point: look at nordstrom just evaporated. You know, nordstrom had this insane run to like 46 dollars and it's literally giving all of it back. Almost almost you know. It's still up, obviously from it's 11, but my goodness uh macy's, yeah macy's has been incredible.

They've really stayed up every time. Macy's is red, it's like nobody cares. People buy macy's like to people like macy's is just never going to go bankrupt. I feel like people.

Look at macy's like oh it's just it's just a safety style, i'm not touching it all right! So uh, okay, um! Oh here's, a headline german police detained, suspect, 96 years old who ducked trial in nazi case wow 96 got him. They've been 50 years late, but we got him like 60 years, no more. 60. 70.

I mean we're almost a century old on this news here. Not yet i'm like 80. nah, 75, but anyway, uh okay, is the asp going to keep going so far. It's been uh, it's been behaving yep.

0.93. Now it's going to point one: it's almost there. It's almost there. This is the fun.

In my opinion, you just need to get back to like scroll back to the beginning of this live stream and just watch it grow. Just like we called it with the other days. It's just it's patterned, it's a simple pattern. It's just weird because, like it's happening live you know, i feel like most trading people are like watch me.

Do this in hindsight and show you how i'm an expert it's like yeah, let me see you. Do it live um, it's not as it's not as easy. When you do it live, it's really easy. When you do it looking backwards, everybody can look at a chart in the past.

Everybody can do that. Uh, lucid 3.27 to the downside, all right. Let's try to get um, let's see what we can get here. Oh yeah, kathy and her deflation arguments.

Okay, let's see here, okay, one sec, all right, so that's old news! We already talked about this y'all and says trinity will run out of cash on the 18th. We already knew that that's old news mojo likely to get fda approval for a smaller boost. Oh, that's interesting: stock selling off to a rough a month, end yeah, we know. Let's, oh wow is everything i know.

Okay, not everything well hold on a sec, cnbc, um yeah. Everything is officially read. Now, that's priceless anyway. Dao is sliding so stocks were oh yeah.

It is the end of the month too. Stocks were ending a rough month of september, largely with more declines as heavy selling action set in to close out the third quarter. Earnings estimates have also been declining as supply chain constraints persist by mid-afternoon. The dow was down 301 or 0.9 percent.

Okay, let's see what what rationale they give dow was the worst performer broad selling began hours after the opening bell, at which point stocks were still on the green uh one major potential contributor portfolio window dressing. That's when portfolio managers sell out of the worst performing stocks for the quarter to paint a brighter picture of what clients are invested in i'm telling you the business is a scam. It's just all like misleading people. It's uh, it's crazy, uh! It's the last day of the quarter, some portfolio manager - you may want to sell stocks that didn't work that quarter.

Oh, my gosh, this is so short term, so freaking short term eight stocks on the move, yeah, whatever uh, okay, cool, boring, tesla delivery numbers are coming. Wall street expects a record there's just one day left in the third quarter of 2021. What are they expecting? Uh delivery estimate of 233 000. that'll be interesting, yeah luke.

We already talked about that. That's old news. I got a video on it already. Oh, did the s p hit the one percent? Let's see it, let's see it live trading, let's go boom.

It touched it that is too freaking funny. Now we got ta go find something that's also selling down to those levels. Somebody find me something that's in the in the shout: some ticker symbols where the stock is lower. At the end of the day, look at that tesla lower at the end of the day, there's one there you go what's another one: google uh how about sofi? So fine, no, not not at the low of the day.

We have four minutes to do some shopping here. Ah, it's all good luke amazon's, almost at that bottom of the day. This is so funny. It's just like the most predictable trade.

Ever it's hilarious, uh apple, oh apple, uh, bed, yeah, bed, bath, got wrecked smurf lol. No uh, ah yeah, look at that on apple apple's, a little too pricey for me to buy right now. Oh did lemonade dip again to the middle of the day, no lemonade's doing fine lemonade's rallying into the clothes oh disney. 169..

Oh ooh, that that you know what i think that deserves about uh thirty thousand dollars. Let's see here, thirty one, two, three thousand dollars and uh: can i buy it? How do i buy it? No, let me just do this buy no. Why is it being funny? Let me use this one bye, please. How much do i want to buy? No, i don't want to stop.

I don't know how many, how many shares do we want to buy? Oh, not that many i don't know like 200 200 shares is 33 000. heck yeah. Let's go uh buying this all right. 169.35.

Let's go! Remember anytime, i trade like this. I send notifications and stocks of psychology money group link down below, but this at 169 35 33k worth boom. Let's go, let's find another one. Let's go, give me another ticker, i'm not going to buy shift autodesk, i'm not ready to start a position in that, but i am so freaking tempted good call good call though yeah yup yup, yup tdd.

It is friday. No it's thursday. Oh, i thought it was friday. Darn, okay, trade desk come on.

I need i need another ticker give me another tickler ticker ticket ticker. What's another one, no amd! Ah yeah! I mean amd's kind of at the low, but it is a green day. Anything else come on. We got 90 seconds knight report.

Let's try here, matterport nope that one didn't sell down to the bottom. We saw the s p. 500. It's breaking the line, it's worse, uh, mind, medicine, shopify, giraffe, kings.

Draftking's got me really interested, i'm not going to touch corsair draftkings, i'm tempted by google draftkings. Did a nice sell-off here too you're right, goog, i'm not i'm! I'm loaded up with apple! Oh, that google dippidy dippidy dippity, oh heck, yeah! Let's go on the googs! I'm about that dip 20 shares, let's buy it boom, i got it um. What did i buy it at? I don't know it's something like 26 60 20 shares boom all right 30 seconds left. That's a good! I like that drop into the clothes heck.

That was a good one. Whoever called that one out. Thank you. Uh sono, amazon worker, amazon, yeah, i'm good amazon's, i mean amazon deserves a break out here.

It's just been on like, but i'm pretty exposed already. Oh, look! It's all red. Let's go all right! Girls and boys: it appears that the dow jones is down one point: six percent, the s p 500 is down one point: two: two percent: the nasdaq technology is a down point. Four four and the russell 2000 is down pointed 94 stocks.

Taking another spill into the close, an ugly one to wrap up what was the down month for september. Welcome back to closing bell everyone! If you are just joining us, i'm sarah eisen, with wilfred frost and mike santoli cnbc senior markets, commentator, take a look at how we finished up the day on wall street nope already did oh dear. It's such a riot, the stupid sell-off. It does right before the close is hilarious, so dumb, oh yeah yeah, they all did it too.

Oh man, it's exhausting, but it's also kind of entertaining at the same time, btc usc. Let's look at how crypto did uh crypto didn't really move that much, and this is the one minute chart uh, let's see here uh. So this is the end of the month. End of the quarter uh end of the week, stocks post's worst monthly, sell-off since march of 2020.

Well, if you bought the dip, you bought the dip of the worst monthly sell-off since march of 2020. Is that even true is the s p down more than five percent uh snp 500 monthly? Sell-Off, though so one month september, one! Oh four point: seven! Nine percent! Are you kidding me man? That's weak! That's just weak yeah! Now we're back into october earnings quarter. Three earnings: we got nothing obviously yet uh, not really at least but uh yeah. I would expect uh two weeks from now we'll be right in the midst of earnings.

We'll get labor data on the eighth, which is a week from tomorrow, uh we've got uh. Have i mentioned what yet eli uh? Oh reverse repos hit 1.6 trillion, i'm telling you man, banks got so much freaking cash. They don't know what to do with it. People got so much money, that's incredible! That is crazy.

All right, how's things moving after hours, darden's moving up about 2.69 percent towards the downside, tnc tmc and win a firm. I just saw a firm here for a moment. A firm was up 5.64. Today i like that.

That's very nice lemonade, a couple percent. All right! Amc did well today, where's amc hold on there. It is seven percent yeah amc, finally bounced because the the day was rough. It's down to 33 bucks folks, i feel like it's dropped to 33 before not that long ago hold on.

When was it in the 30s? Last here it is see, look at that 32 in august yeah, yeah yeah there. It is that's crazy, so 31, 28, 29, 32 right there. We have seen this dip before about 32.. Uh didn't quite get there, though, did it.

Let me look at the one minute and that's 37: no, not really it didn't really quite get there. I'm actually gon na kill that one kevin you mentioned in your videos at cpifxcrypto. The new report will be on the 13th. That is correct.

That is right. You are 100 correct, all right, so uh so write down the eighth for unemployment. You write down uh the um there. We go uh, eighth for unemployment and what was the other one, oh cpi, on the 13th yeah, exactly cool uh, oh uh! If i have not, i have folks have you gotten you're up to 70 dollars for free, yet from public go to medkevin.com public get up to 70 totally for free by signing up for public.

All you have to do is go to medcabin.com, public and they'll. Give you a free stock worth up to 70. It's a super cool trading platform where you can buy and sell stocks. Public does not sell your information to other parties and they don't use payment for overflow.

Their social platform is also pretty fun, especially since you, you could see like transparently when people buy or sell like do. They sell out a gain or lost pretty cool, all right uh and you have the choice to disclose that or not obviously, which i i suppose people could filter what they disclose, but whatever that's on that's on them all right, so um yeah, i mean, let's see, Oh beachbody, i don't know if it's actually up four percent right now. I could see it having some crazy fluctuations here. Uh matterport down about 1.64 was about down one six percent on the day did fall to about 1828.

This morning. Let's look at the spy spy. We are uh, look at that like recovery right after the close, we were covering it. Look at that selling volume.

It's insane. The last minute here sell, sell, sell, sell. It is incredible all right, let's see what news headlines! We've got now that we've closed uh all right. Let's go back to barons barons wall street journal financial times see what we can find hey.

I got the financial times right here see financial times. It's the same thing. Pelosi: goldman sachs was points poised to triumph in china. What happened? China happened.

Stag stagflation fears, intensify drama goldman sachs. Let's see here hold on one sec. Let's take a look at these. I think these will be interesting.

Goldman sachs was poised to triumph in china. What happened? Let's take a look for goldman sachs, taking full control of its chinese joint venture was meant to be the culmination of 30 years of work and a ticket to future riches. 100 ownership of our franchise on mainland china. Yeah.

That's because a lot of uh a lot of companies are established in china and then they're required to give a share of company ownership to the communist party. 10 months ago, goldman's position in the country looked much less secure. In june, the bank was the lead underwriter on the disastrous dd public, offering in august rival, jp morgan leapfrogged goldman to become the first western bank, approved to own its chinese security business to own a chinese security business right. Meanwhile, investment banking opportunities have dimmed as beijing cracks down for decades.

Goldman has cultivated relations with china, former executive hank paulson flew to china in 92.. Okay, this is just more of a history here i want to know what happened. A bitter ipo yep we know didi was was in oopsie-doopsies after didi's floatation new rules were announced, forcing any company, with more than one million customers to submit a review of its data security before listing overseas. At the same time, u.s economic sanctions on china and an unexpected confrontational biden are becoming growing growing compliance problems, yeah.

That was unexpected. I think people were expecting things to get better with china with uh navigating uh the world as somebody that they interview. Okay, more history. This is a big research piece here.

Managing clients hasn't been easy. A person close to the bank said that ant had barred its underwriters from working with competitors, yeah okay, a little bit of a niche article there. I don't know how interesting that is. Instead, let's try something that might be a little bit more interesting right after a sip of coffee because who doesn't like coffee? Ah, yes makes me really want to start a business in china said no one ever payday tomorrow, please stay red.

I love it good, for you see that right there is a this. Is the psychology that we need. You know you get all the sometimes people paper hand. They see like.

Oh my gosh, my stock's down ten percent on my paper hands like you're gon na cry over ten percent. Oh my gosh, you haven't lived. You haven't lived until you felt forty percent declines to fifty percent declines. You haven't lived until some of your options have gone to negative 99.

You haven't lived, you have not felt true joy, oh dear lord yeah shift is getting tempting again. I do think the market's kind of uh shifted against shift because uh there aren't enough used cars. How are you gon na sell anything and no cars? It's a little bit of a downside. This is nothing this is.

Who cares? Who cares? There was no mention of this on the news today. Of course, there was no mention in the news today about a bill to federally legalize marijuana approved by key house committee. Nobody cares what the house wants to do literally. Nobody cares like, if you hear house wants to do something like just immediately: go yeah.

Okay, keep scrolling, i hate to say it. That's just the way it is like. If the senate ain't gon na, do it it's all virtue, signaling, it's all garbage. It's all! Just kicking and screaming to try to get attention and nothing's going to happen in the house.

The only thing that matters right now is the senate. That's how it was during the last two years of trump. That's how it's going to be the first two years of biden and probably how it's going to be the next two years as well. It's all about the senate, so anything you see with house even when they pass the safe banking act.

It's not going to go anywhere uh so anyway, let's talk about something more interesting, like stagflation fears, intensify in signs of slowing growth, ooh gas prices up. Oh my gosh 135 of some currency for regular unleaded all right. Let's see what we got supply chain disruptions. Sweeping major economies have reawakened an old nemesis for investors.

Stagflation anxiety over rising inflation has been ever present in markets this year, but with oil topping 80 a barrel. Global food price is a third more expensive than they were a year ago and other commodities at decade highs. Investors say a longer than expected. Inflationary surge is coinciding with a slowdown in growth and making it worse.

Hey. You know this is interesting. I mean they they're. All right, the un uh just put out the report about food prices going up 33 year over year.

That is a tax on poorer individuals or households that that aren't millionaires, certainly right uh. It's crazy, uh, okay, so uh economists, investors play down comparisons with the aftermath of the 1970s oil shock. You know a lot of comparisons to the 1970s. Even kathy wood has uh has compared to the 70s and said things like this ain't: the 70s.

This time's different investors say longer than expected: inflationary surge is considering with a slowdown coinciding with a slowdown in growth. Then, in the 1970s, inflation and interest rates ran into the double digits. Unemployment soared and the gdp recovered only slowly from repeated setbacks, but with energy bills. Now rocketing, many worry about a growth slowdown at a time when central banks are edging towards lifting rates in a bid to keep a lid on longer-term inflation conversation around inflation has definitely shifted.

Well, yeah, no kidding uh. Okay, so you got energy prices going up. You got food prices going up, you've got the economy slowing down, because the stimulant is starting to wear off, we'll see what kind of side effects we have of all that money. Printing signals from the fed and bank of england last week were that they could have begun.

They could soon begin lifting rates er. Let's see fueled a big bond sell-off, which increases yields, of course, but in contrast to the reflation trade at the start of the year, stocks have been unable to draw comfort from the prospect of tighter monetary policy. That's true recovery stocks started selling off and which were often deemed the deflation or reflation trades and tech has been selling off a bit everything's just selling off a little bit. All right ample evidence suggests that a supply shock or reverberating around the world, combined with other outbreaks of delta, is tempering growth.

I'm not so good, i mean. Is it? How concerned? Is everybody about a delta? I i mean, i think widening i mean there was actually a headline. I don't know if i have it here, but there is a headline in the walsh or financial times about how basically europe yeah yeah yeah. Here it's right here: okay, eurozoo zone, consumer activity returns to pre-pandemic levels, and i thought this was a really interesting piece.

I wasn't really going to talk about it because i just read this stuff all the time, and i don't talk about everything that's in this stuff, but um. It's literally the front page page news right here. This is today's paper. It says europeans are shopping, eating out and traveling and visiting cinemas as much as they did before the pandemic in a sign of returning returning consumer confidence across the eurozone.

Data on economic activity in september suggests that consumers feel emboldened by high vaccination rates. Despite worrying economic news, including higher energy, build supply, chain disruptions and fears of a slowdown in china for now, data remained consistent with a decent pace of recovery. Some of the rebound is because schools are reopening, and but an increase in leisure activities also suggests. Consumers are now more confident.

Cinema revenues have already returned to pre-pandemic levels. I am shocked by that because when i go to movie theater there aren't that many people there uh. Let's see here, oecd weekly, tracker of economic activity, which uses real-time high-frequency data indicators rose above 2019 levels at the beginning of september. I mean that's good.

That's bullish in eurozone. Positive momentum might give the ecb confidence. It could scale back emergency, a stimulus, yeah we've already talked about that back from the brain, but not out of the woods because of supply bottlenecks. So i think the consumers are there.

Yeah. Okay, consumers are interested uh yeah. So, okay, let's go back to the ft over here. Um okay data released pointed to a sharp slowdown in chinese manufacturing regulatory pressures.

A lot of the negativity has like a reason. You know, and that's a good thing. It makes me feel more comfortable. It's like okay, people are complaining about congress or complaining about china's regulation and and evergrand, which is really a symptom of chinese.

The chinese communist party changing their regulatory stance towards debt uh. You know so so far. A lot of these things are very explainable and it makes it really hard to consider that. Oh, no stocks are somehow you know destined for a big mega collapse or whatever i mean hey, like you never know, i mean nobody saw the pandemic coming, except when it started happening and people got rich off puts when it started happening, which makes sense, and that's One of the first things people do when markets crashing.

I was just spending my money buying the dip, but anyway selling activity spilled over into equity markets. This week after data showed that u.s consumer confidence had dropped to a six-month low. The uk found itself at a sharp end of stagflationary concerns with a surge in energy prices. Okay, so it's interesting how confidence! I personally wonder how much consumer confidence in the us is based on what the stock market is doing, because, even though we've seen some economic slowing uh, there are a lot of indicators, especially europe, which seems to be a little bit ahead of us in terms of Covet that uh, that people are spending again uh.

So it's it's always weird to try to tie this all together because on one hand we've got more cash than we've ever had before. On the other hand, i believe we're going to be in a little bit more of a frugal decade, because i don't think people are going to spend themselves into oblivion like they used to the european union. While we're having some setbacks with energy prices is actually doing very well in regards to consumer activity, but then you have consumer confidence measures in the u.s a little low, maybe because of delta, and all this other uh congressional nonsense. But i expect that to u-turn so we'll see uh with revised data show activity, while advised data, while revised data show activity bounce back faster than thought over the summer.

The recovery appears to be faulting, at least the bank of england. So you get these mixed signals. Both of these are from the financial times today, on one hand, they're saying europe's doing better. Now, here they're saying the bank, the recovery appears to be faltering according to the bank of england, but it's because of supply bottlenecks.

So these are two different things right. So it's like okay, yeah supply bottlenecks are getting worse, but people want to spend money. This is more important in my opinion than supply bottlenecks. Now, supply bottlenecks are going to have a more immediate term impact on stock prices like supply bottlenecks are going to suck they're going to hurt stock prices, they're going to hurt gdp growth, but consumers apparently have the willingness to spend, and this is good.

Recovery takes hold, leisure, rebounds suggests confidence, but of course you have threats. Energy prices, supply chain shortages, price increases, so it's like people want to go back to normal, but yeah there are some headwinds. This makes sense makes a lot of sense. I mean people want to buy a tesla and they don't want to have to wait until march for one, but they will because they want a tesla concerns.

Over growth are one reason. The pound is not benefited from the sharp rise. If it's stagflation, central banks are in a blind, bind, hiking interest rates will reduce demand which will slow growth, but if you're already slowing growth through stagflation, then that's bad. That's if you believe in the deflation era, stagflation narrative, that's probably the biggest argument for a market crash right now is stagflation is that's it.

The economy is going to slow down its growth and, at the same time, we're going to raise rates and we're going to be screwed, but the only the only reason. In my opinion, the economy's growing slower is because there's this giant anchor behind us and it's an anchor of of many different things: the rent crisis, the uh, a high amount of unemployment uh as people transition to different jobs, supply chain shortages, shorter term inflation right all Of those things are like this giant anchor and consumers are like. We must move on and keep going uh. You know, it'd be nice to cut that anchor, so uh inflation should start to ease in 2022 and the situation was still a long way off.

Anything like the 1970s. We won't see inflation get into the system like we did then says: vicki redwar would would a senior economist or economic advisor at capital economics. Others warn, however, that there is no signs yet of strains on supply chains easing and that the world could be heading for a more sustained period of habit, growth and high inflation. So that's that's really it it's.

Basically, what we're saying here uh if supply chain problems, continue for a further six to 12 months, while consumers still had job security and were willing to pay for goods they wanted. He said the whiff of stag stagflation might be more of a stench wow. That was a complicated way to word that okay got it. So basically, look consumers are happy, they want to get back to normal.

They want to go back to traveling. They want to go to restaurants, they want to spend money. They've got more money than ever, but again, we've got this giant anchor that we're dragging around called inflation, because some prices are going up supply chain shortages. Making us wait longer.

We either have to pay with our time or we have to pay more money. Remember you pay more money for things like shipping costs to get the stuff on time or you pay with your personal time, because flights are getting delayed or hotels are booked up or whatever right uh. But overall you know, i don't know, i'm not a big proponent of this whole stagflation thesis, but then again i've been very consistent on this channel that i believe inflation is going to inflect down whether that's next month as a start or or in four months. From now, as a start, we are going to inflict down downwards on inflation, but uh sure supply chain issues are a crisis and, at some point, they'll be up and running again.

I just want to ask you this, and this is a great way to to leave off. How do you think with how much more productive our markets have gotten our economies and our businesses have gotten the cheap credit our businesses and our markets have gotten? How do you think our economy would be doing right now if we had zero supply chain shortages literally, ask yourself that how would the economy be doing right now, with the amount of money people have uh, the appetite people have to spend and no supply chain shortages? Would we be at all-time highs on the stock market? Would gdp be at the highest place ever and so now picture that moment where businesses are more productive? People have more money and people have more willingness to spend just not now picture it at like the end of 2022 or 2023.. That's what i'm investing for! I'm looking at 2021 as like i'm planting seeds, man, i'm planting c, i'm going around going yup buy that buy that buy. That buy that.

So i think it's hilarious. When people like after a week of me saying i'm gon na buy a you know, i'm gon na do a fundamental play. It's like how come it hasn't gone up. 30 percent, yet it's like! Well, you know there are different ways to invest.

It's not all chamber! Electric, which i had tried to short, sell this morning or buy a put on, but i couldn't i'm sorry i might do a video on them like a standalone video but anyway think about it. All right folks appreciate you being here. We will see you in the next one just make sure to go to mckevin.com public to get yourself a free stock worth all the way up to seventy dollars. Medkevin.Com public and we'll see you next one thanks again goodbye.