It will be a little bit of an experiment, so welcome to uh what will probably be an extended live stream or we cover what the heck is going on in the world uh, so uh the market opens in about two minutes. So we'll take a look at the market open, but i want to start today's uh video after that by talking about uh how how we're potentially comparing to the end of 2018. And could we say that during this time of war and during this time of disaster, that maybe it's time that we've finally reached the bottom, of course that's everybody's hope, but we'll we'll analyze that together right after the bell opens up so we'll be looking at this Particular chart that's uh, being spread on social media, so we'll take a look at that in uh. In just a moment.

Of course, biden is expected now to unilaterally announce uh an oil ban against russian oil. Russian oil makes up in total about 7.9 percent of the oil uh, both crude and unrefined, uh and uh. You know petrol-based uh oil, that we end up importing just crude. I think it's around three percent uh and uh it'll be quite interesting.

I think we got a lot of that priced in over the weekend and that's why we had such a rough day yesterday. But we'll talk about that. We're expecting to hear about his ban in about uh an hour and a half so we'll see. It'll include russian oil, natural gas, coal and some more things so we'll we'll watch biden at that time.

But for now let's go ahead and jump on over and see uh the opening bell and then we'll talk about. What's going on there so grab a bell, see how things open up. On that point, carl, we talk often about how the biggest tech companies may be precluded from doing any buying. Well, i guess they haven't gotten that memo yet we'll see yeah if mgm and activision happen, would they be a little more bold in making some bids with these valuations? There's the opening bell and the cnbc real-time exchange for the big board, it's being one melon celebrating international women's day at the nasdaq united nations about 50 50, green and red there uh it's kind of incredible is the way the spy is reacting or the way it Has been just the last few minutes, uh we've seen the lines before we'll see if it holds true here in just a second, but take a look at this.

We've gotten rejected multiple times here at 420. So, let's see if we can bump over 420 just to hear in the pre-market it's really the spy has really been respecting 420 here you know 420, 60, 420, 52. uh and so and look at that. That looks like another rejection off of 420 right here.

That's quite wild, so uh, and this by the way, is our zero percent fibonacci line. Uh anytime we're below this we're basically rivaling uh mar february 20 24. When we had our sort of double bottom on the qqq we zoom back out over here, you can see feb 24. This is when we really broke below that zero fibonacci and then we're kind of broken below that again.

Probably gon na have to honestly just redraw the fib here uh to a new bottom because uh it seems like that's that's what we're playing to now, but we'll see we'll see what happens here. Uh in the quick meantime we'll look at a couple of these things. Oh look at that tesla now. Look at that two percent down uh! Look at that drop right at the open there, 788 on tesla uh.

It actually looks like the wheat etf is going down about five percent. That's the first time i've seen the weed etf go down in like two weeks: that's wild, uh and uh still seeing energy companies do well, though uh end phase, sunrun solar, it's surprising that uh tesla's sort of getting parsed out of that uh anyway. Okay, so i do wan na talk about these sort of peak and and uh comparison to 2018 here, all right, one: sec, okay, so there we go all right. So there's been a lot of question about whether or not we are potentially at a bottom and the chart that's being brought up.

Is this right here and so the comparison is to the 2018 crisis that we had, which 2018 it's worth noting. This was uh where we had raised interest rates at the end of 2018. We had now raised interest rates to uh 2.25 to two point: five and uh. This was you know quite aggressive, jerome powell kept hiking.

This was around the same time and it was also jerome powell. Was there then uh. This was when uh donald trump was in office, though, and donald trump said. Jerome powell is going to get fired if he doesn't start lowering rates, and there was a lot of pressure on jerome powell to stop raising rates uh, and it wasn't until the market sort of hit this bottom over here that something special happened and what happened was Around december 18th of 2018 jerome powell said all right: look, we told you that we were going to do three rate increases in 2019.

Now, what we're actually going to do is we're just going to do two, and so that was seen as a positive u-turn by the federal reserve and when we get these positive. U terms from the fed oftentimes, we can see a potential bottom depending on how uns or how surprising that positive u-turn is, you know, otherwise, it's not a u-turn right like if the federal reserve - and this is worth noting if the federal reserve is - is very consistent - That uh, you know they're positive, positive, positive, positive, then them continuing on a positive trajectory is, is nothing uh uh? No, no. No excitement to the market provides nothing in the market. The problem is, is when the federal reserve is tightening, tightening, tightening, tightening or maybe not so much the problem.

The u-turn is when the fed goes. Okay, we're not going to tighten as much. You know that kind of u-turn or change in direction is good. Now, to some degree folks are saying: maybe that's what we just had as well, because the federal reserve, starting in december and january, said okay, we've got massive problems with inflation.

Here, we're going to have to tighten substantially we're going to have to tighten rates uh we're going to have to run off the balance sheet faster than ever before, because it's larger than ever before. We have more mixed uh durations within it, especially more shorter term bonds. So we're going to run this off faster uh, we have uh, you know a situation where we're so well below the neutral rate that we've got a lot of work to do to raise rates quickly and so they've made these these potential allusions to uh bill ackman's Style quote shock and awe where you come in with let's say a 50 basis, point hike right away, half percent or maybe even 100 basis, point hike right away and and then you hike thereafter right. This is kind of the feeling that we were getting from december and january.

Well, uh. Then we got a little bit of a u-turn and that u-turn happened on february 24th. That was when russia actually decided to invade uh ukraine, because this became a signal of well. The federal reserve should go more dovish here if, indeed, war leads to a temporary style of inflation, a second type of inflation in commodities uh, and we end up going to a more dovish fed.

Then uh, then we're gon na end up seeing a fed u-turn, which is essentially what we saw a few days ago. Uh when jerome powell said hey, you know what we're gon na we're gon na hold back here. This is a game. Changer is essentially what he said: okay, so now, let's compare this so we've had the u-turns in each scenario.

Could that potentially mean we're in a similar place here? Let's take a look at this, so this year is 2018 and uh. What folks are drawing is that we sort of had our lower high right here, which you see that here, which is a fall uh by your your second lower high uh and then you've got your uh lower, double top, which they're marking as sort of here in 2018 and here in 2020, so you can kind of see that comparison in the two charts here, then we've got the uh, what they call the final capitulation uh, which comes potentially after this another lower high, which they're marking here. So here's your double, which we had right here, another lower high, that kind of little bounce right there and then potentially one more large drop and then off to the moon right, that's sort of the comparison of this okay. So what are my thoughts on this? Well, my thoughts are that so far it looks really nicely aligned to 2018.

We did get a federal reserve somewhat u-turn, but if i had to personally compare the styles of u-turns, we got here, i would say: in 2018 we had a fed that was going in this direction and then was kind of like let's go this way. They didn't go full accommodative right, it's not like they. They said. That's it.

We're not doing interest rate increases anymore right uh. So we did get that positive view. Turn up. I'd say today with jay pal calling a war, a game changer.

We got a little bit more of this kind of an inflection or it's kind of like okay, we're just gon na we're gon na chill a little bit. We're gon na be a little bit more patient, as opposed to saying we're gon na raise rates less. So i i don't think we got as much of a federal reserve u-turn when you sort of overlaid that onto these charts, not only do i not think we got as much of a fed a u-turn, but in 2018 the only show in town was the fed That was the only thing that was keeping markets freaked right uh. It was the fact that we were consistently raising rates.

I mean we saw that pain earlier in uh may of 2018 when real estate prices, all of a sudden, fell like 10. In the matter of of six weeks i mean it was terrible. All of a sudden people were freaking out now they recovered by the end of the year, but there was definitely a freak out during the year, so it was wild but anyway uh. The only thing that we're paying attention to in 2018 was rates.

Now, we've got a lot more. We've got substantially high inflation. We've got this new form of what will probably be transitory inflation, which is higher oil prices, uh and a very high oil price. I mean it's an oil shock uh and we've still got the geopolitical concern of how long this war will last with russia and ukraine and how much we could spill over to nato countries as well as how damaged is the global economy going to get from? All of the sanctions that we have imposed uh see.

You know i regularly mention that uh folks, folks ask me they say well kevin i mean. Is it really that big of a deal that uh that russia is getting sanctioned? I mean it's not going to make me, spend less money right and i think it's so it's it's kind of easy for us to separate ourselves from that, because we forget that wait. A minute, uh apple is gon na, be losing money because of russia. Burberry ea hermes, uh h m ikea nike under armour visa mastercard.

These are massive companies and they're way more than even this uh youtube facebook, twitter, you name it. There are dozens to potentially hundreds of companies that are losing money and no longer contributing to global gdp. In that that region, and so for global economy, when we consider the velocity of money right, one dollar spent is five dollars of money for other people. It's not good, so you would see some kind of slowdown.

So as much as i want to look at this, this chart that somebody sent over and say, oh yeah. This is definitely uh. That's it. You know we're.

We've got maybe one more hard downturn here and then we're off to the moon. I don't necessarily believe that this is the case uh, because we have so many more things going on now and so many more uncertainties now. I do hope that this is true, but i don't want to plan for this, so the way i would invest for this is, i would still take the take advantage of buying the dip when there are uh opportunities like in fact i mean even today. I don't know if tesla's rebounding now, let's take a look at it.

I know tesla's still down about two percent. So even today, you've got tesla sitting at uh. 787. I'd still take opportunities to nibble up these things with cash around, but i would also follow what we've regularly been talking about on the channel, which is uh stay away for the time being, at least from margin, stay away from speculative options.

Speculative options remember: these are going to be your your like short-term call options, your really bullish kind of options, or your really negative puts. I really think buying options in this market is just terrible with uh. With course, members we'll regularly look at the historic volatility and uh we'll see with historic volatility. Okay, how you know are we buying high? Are we buying low, not just in price but in historic volatility, uh and - and we can chart this out and uh it's it's right now.

The premiums for most options are absolutely insane. I mean they already price in such substantial moves. It's not the easiest to make money in unless, unless of course you get lucky and then and then you know we yolo into let's say uh and then then you just have to realize it's a yolo right, you yolo into wheat. When i first mentioned it uh back over here and uh, you know obviously you're gon na you're gon na do quite well.

I don't think the market priced in all of this kind of 50 move, but 20 of it may have been, and you start getting a down day like today. It wouldn't be surprising to see a little bit of a volatility crush too, and then you see a lot of uh a lot of that that built-in premium go away so uh. That's it again! Go going back to this right here uh. I would love to say that we're close to that bottom, like that we've drawn out on this chart here uh, but i think, there's a lot more uncertainty and that it really wouldn't surprise me at all to see 2020 here.

Let's draw it on this one to end up. You know in five years from now, we look back and 2020 ended up being uh. You know what was 20 20.. I think the spy did like 16 or something like that right for the s p.

500. I think in 21 we ended up doing something i should do positive there. We go something like uh 26, even though we quickly gave a lot of that up at the beginning of 2021 right. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see 2022 actually be a negative spy here, uh, where who knows? Maybe it's down three percent or four percent, or something like that wouldn't surprise me so that to me is, is based on all of the uncertainties that we still have in 2022, especially making sure that inflation actually goes down, because what, if it doesn't you know, then We potentially have to price in the fact that you know paul, volcker could show up again uh, which, if you don't remember paul volcker, is of course the federal reserve, chairperson, that we had in the early 80s, who raised rates to 15 16 percent to stamp out.

Really high inflation essentially forced a recession. The federal reserve can do that. They can force a recession on us and it's so easy to forget that the fed can just like at the drop of a hat. They can say that you know what for the greater good of our currency and our country, we need to force a recession.

People make up crazy for saying that they're, like oh my gosh. Why would the federal reserve ever force a recession? People are going to lose their jobs yeah, but you have two choices: if you let high inflation uh like it was in the late 70s and early 80s become anchored, the expectation of high inflation get anchored and you essentially lead to potentially runaway hyperinflation, then uh, then What could happen is you could have a total regime collapse of the u.s dollar and if you have a collapse of the us dollar, then the united states loses much more power in the world. It's no longer traded as the oil dollar. It's no longer the denominated currency of the swift banking system.

It's no longer the world's reserve currency uh everybody's lost trust in the us government. I mean you could go from the number one economy to you know a few notches down very very quickly. If you have currency regime collapse, and so this is where the federal reserve looks at that, and they would rather say you know what time to force a recession. That'll remove inflation, because the way to get rid of inflation is to reduce demand substantially.

If we over reduce demand, that's okay, that's better than a regime collapse of the dollar and don't think that bitcoin's gon na come in and save the day uh there's yeah as much as i love, blockchain and cryptocurrency. Don't get me wrong. I just really don't see at any point uh the federal reserve giving up control of uh of their currency, certainly not in the next uh 50 years uh. It would be very, very interesting.

I think they'll have their own digital currencies that uh, but anyway uh. You know, as i always like to say, if any of that makes you nervous get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to mckevin.com live, but speaking of bitcoin, let's take a quick look at uh btc, which is uh. Of course, one of our amazing sponsors uh really cool ceo as well by the way, but let's take a look at btc, so you can sign up for ftx link down below, but uh take a look at this. We've really been trying to push for for 40k.

Here, but it's been rough, the last few days, mostly because we've been pricing in this oil disaster, we started pricing in this oil disaster. That's when we fell down here from from our 44k well under our 40 000 again, and so we've had essentially this disaster here, where we've had these lower lows and we're slowly starting to recover because of the fear of oh, my gosh, what could 130 per barrel Oil mean for us what could 200 oil mean for us, even though that's probably a little bit more fear-mongerish and you've got jp morgan calling for 200 you've got goldman sachs calling for 180., even though i think that's more fear-mongerish, it's definitely being priced in, and it Just reiterates to us again that no btc is not our inflation, hedge uh; it is not our uh, it is not our opportunity to to get away from risk. It is another form of risk. Now i will say it has performed better than some other assets risk assets since the beginning of the year, which is nice uh.

It certainly hasn't performed anywhere near near as poorly as a lot of the specs that we've seen the uh, maybe high growth but low profit companies. I mean you look at some like, let's say: uh, zoom or snowflake or again the spaxx uh, there's been some serious pain and btc has performed a lot better than this. Although then again, you could look at the alt coins and kind of compare the alts to the specs and you start seeing a very similar story so uh. Those are my thoughts on this chart, which i got a shout out.

I think it was jake on twitter. Shout out to you for sending over this chart on comparing us to 2018, and it's always good for us to look at cases like this and decide. Okay, or does this potentially mean we're at a bottom or uh? You know how how are things potentially different and even though the chart looks really similar, i mean if we were only looking at a chart point of view - hey, maybe maybe and again knock on wood. Hopefully, right that, like one more buying opportunity - and that's it we're off to the moon but uh with the amount of uncertainties that we'd have, i think for this to come true.

We would need something big to happen. We would need, for example, putin to you know, as uh kevin o'leary said yesterday, drink the nuclear tea or uh and sort of disappear and uh and probably would need to start seeing inflation reflect down substantially. So my thoughts on this one uh all right. So, let's see what else, we've got all right, yeah somebody here says: tesla is rebounding uh, let's take a look here.

Yeah, it looks like end face, was pushing too a little bit. Oh yeah, look at that nice rebound on tesla, that's funny as as i mentioned hey, you might want to take the opportunity to buy the dip on tesla and not that i'm trying to pat myself on the back for saying i caused any kind of u-turn here. I didn't, but we just said this like three minutes ago, like hey: here's, an opportunity to nibble on tesla a little bit below 800 right uh anyway, so uh all right. Let's see, look at that! Even dwack is getting hit a little bit here.

Okay, let's take a little bit of a peek and see what some of the suits are saying and uh. Then we'll talk a little bit more about news, but let's hop in over here for a moment, because we know biden's going to talk in about 40 minutes or so so. Multiple contraction versus all of the 14 decline in the s p we have seen this year is because the multiple has contracted from about 22 to about 18.7. What we're going to see now, what the market's afraid of is earnings numbers are going to come down.

Analysts are notoriously difficult, carl, and you know this to make moves in their stocks at the inflection point, and what we're going to see now is very modest declines in earnings. So far, carl, i think you're going to see that number that 6.2 percent come down rather quickly in the next several days that analysts play catch-up. Carl back to you all right, bob we'll watch for that. You know it's an interesting argument.

That is it possible that analysts could uh could lower the potential for uh. You know the market to actually be able to rebound, as they start reducing their estimates going forward as they price in that global uh pain of of uh russia. Personally, i i don't think they're going to price in as much pain as they probably should. Personally, i think q2 earnings are going to be something i want to keep some well q1 when we get those in q2, it's gon na be something i want to keep some cash available for we'll see i mean hopefully not, but it wouldn't surprise me for us To see some big misses - let's listen in over here for a moment, targeted, u.s firms right before the russian invasion.

Lydia. Who has the story after this all right? So it looks like they all decide. They want to go on commercial, no problem. So, let's take a look at the indices and just understand what's happening here and then we'll uh we'll see some of the other uh major updates that we're getting remember that joe biden is expected to speak at 7 45..

Look at that rejection there at 4 20.. We just keep getting rejected, we did try to break above it, but still can't break above it not even on the minute chart. But again in case you've joined a little bit later. Biden will be is expected to impose a ban on imports of russian energy.

This was, unfortunately, what markets had priced in a lot yesterday, because we saw a lot of pain in markets. Yesterday i mean substantial amount. I think the qqq was down. 3.6 percent spy was down somewhere on three percent.

I mean that's, that's terrible, so uh. This is uh, i would say, um. You know a little bit of uh a little bit more of okay. What else is biden gon na say we'll see, let's see, okay, let's take a look at qqq as well, so this is spy now qqq.

Let's take a look here at how we've got this drawn yeah again under that zero fib as well. I think i'm very tempted to redraw this. I might just redraw it and leave the other one for the time being, let's see if i can sort of match. Just to see it's going to be too messy, though i think, if i do this, i just want to see how it aligns it's not terrible.

It's because the a lot of the other fibs are actually in a roughly similar spot. If i go here, you know my 38, my 50, those those right align roughly in the same spot. It just basically moves the bottom down a little bit more. Let me try that on spy - oh, i didn't actually want to draw it.

Let's get rid of it! No, that's the one i didn't want to move. Sometimes weeble makes me laugh or i just get angry. I don't know, probably not angry there we go. Let's get rid of that there we go.

That's better. Okay, let's go to spy yeah. I don't know if it's worth drawing it down here, just because this has been working so well and usually when ta works so well i hate changing it, but you don't want to you: don't want to die with the time so to speak. Yeah, i'm not ready to draw that i'm going to call that more of just an intraday and it was it's not like.

We had a full candlestick break on the day anyway. So i don't love that. But then again i didn't draw this down to the full candlestick either yeah. Well, we'll keep an eye on this, because that 420 is working pretty well right.

Now, it's kind of wild all right. Let's take a look over here. Oh hopefully, you made yourself some coffee. No everybody's on commercial today, all right what else we have uh okay, uk now at uh, oh gold's, popping off no surprise uk to announce a ban on russian oil imports as well.

All right. Let's talk about this briefly, okay, yeah, so biden was expect. That could be actually what's maybe pushing the market a little bit. Yeah biden was expected uh to be negotiating over the weekend with russian allies.

Sorry, russian allies, european allies about banning oil imports from russia and a lot of european allies are like china still need it. So now it's been decided that biden is going to ban the import of russian oil and natural gas and crude whatever today and uh. It now looks like the uk is following. However, they're only banning the uk is only banning russian oil and not gas imports as well see if we can get a little bit more detail here.

Okay, so they're going to have a press conference, it looks like uh about 15 minutes after joe biden speaks unless they moved it up joe biden's, usually late, though oh okay wait. Wait, though, the european commission has an answer for us. It says turning down thermostats by one celsius could save 10 bcm of gas demand this year cm. We see a billion cubic meters.

I guess in total for europe all right. That's it do you don't want it. You want to be less reliant on russia. Just turn.

Your thermostat down one celsius and in america change it to celsius first, i guess we could convert it, but i don't really want to anyway uh all right. What else do we have? So that's gon na be interesting with uh these bands. Today, that's gon na lead to a little bit more volatility. I do wonder how oil's performing this morning, let's take a peek at that one.

Second, here, oh yeah, here we go s. P is little changed after the worst sell-off since 2020 ooh. Let's take a look at that uh yeah here you go, you've got look at that brent at 130, again, my goodness uh and then where's gold hold on bonds. What oh, okay, the 10 year's back up again uh wow! Look at that oil! 2033, my goodness! I'm not oil, uh gold, really impressive, all right.

Let's just sit in here for one moment, and then i do. I'm gon na pull up trading view as well over the last week, compared to 2019 levels, primarily driven by eastern europe, russia and, to a lesser extent, western europe, which still remains modestly above 2019 levels. This is booking holdings trying to convey to wall street that the impact of this crisis on travel is confined to a specific region. It follows, of course, a sharp drop in shares of booking holdings down about 24, since russia's invasion began and it adds to comments made by marriott ceo, tony caswano yesterday addressing the impact yeah booking's boring.

You know, i will say i i don't know i mean travel - is getting whacked so badly when we know that the cruise lines have uh banned travel to like saint petersburg and russia and that, but the this, a part of me wonders how much of the travel Companies have turned into sort of the the kathy woody and style value trap where it's like. Oh man, uh is this. Is this just you know, or if you're investing in the airlines or the cruise lines or you're just investing in high debt companies and uh? Is that uh, potentially a big no-no in this market, or is it an opportunity to buy the dip? I don't know, maybe they can tell us a little more today, isg among others, ryanair up about three percent carl back to you, yeah all right, seema, we'll keep an eye on a lot of those names this morning still to come. In fact, the president is set to deliver remarks and expected to announce a ban on russian oil imports in the next hour as goldman hikes, their year-end forecast by 10 bucks to 135 says there's upside risk to 175..

Don't go anywhere. Oh that's interesting! So they've kind of revised that a little bit so they mentioned goldman was actually the one that uh originally mentioned. Uh the upside risk was up to 180 and then just to contrast, they're talking about their year end forecast being 135 year. End 135.

That's wild! Because a lot of us are expecting this just to be, quite frankly, transitory uh, and i know that's like a really an extremely unpopular word to say uh. Nobody wants to hear that, but i mentioned this the other day that i think we have two real forms of essentially transitory inflation. We have the original transitory, which is uh our supply chain, crisis and uh. That was, that is something that i believe that the fed actually still does think is transitory.

That's because we're seeing the federal reserve uh just try to delay they're trying to buy time every excuse they get now. They, especially since war began they've been saying: hey, you know what we'll just just wait. Just wait. Let's take it easy, we don't want to hike too fast.

We don't want to cause unemployment, yadda, yadda and uh. Ultimately, i think the federal reserve is really just trying to look for as much data as they can to prove that. Aha, there we go it's june and inflation started ticking down. We were right except watch it's like june of 2024, before it starts no, hopefully not.

Obviously, hopefully, 2022 but yeah, that's that's the first form of transitory inflation that you have with the fed. This is their version right and then the second form of transitory inflation is that you've got this. This concern over uh now oil prices and this oil shock, and is it possible that this oil shock is just a temporary shock, of course again like if this this disaster in ukraine ends, which i hope it does? I mean every single day, there's usually the front page. I don't have it here, but i do have today.

Yesterday there was a terrible uh just cover on the new york times. I mean they just literally had dead people uh who were just fleeing. You know family and then they got mortared. It was terrible.

I was on the front page of the new york times uh. I was actually surprised, they put it on there, but uh, because usually they i mean they almost every single day. It's some form of destruction or uh. You know that's the new york times, here's you know the body bags, usually don't actually just see people's bodies which you did yesterday, which was wild uh.

But it's true, i mean hey if it brings more awareness to the disasters of war. Look here's another one! This is the la times. You got the same kind of body bag pick. You got the usa today here they've got.

You know: bunker uh uh! This is terrible, you know just sadness, it's financial times anyway, yeah, that's usually the kind of stuff that you get on these these headlines, but uh yeah yesterday was was really just heart-wrenching anyway uh. Well, let's listen to what uh what we're talking about on btc here! 45 minutes from now now bigger mistakes. New actions against russia will bring you that when it happens now this just four months ago, the world's leaders gathered in glasgow scotland for cop 26, the great climate conference. They waved their virtue flags and promised to phase out.

I love this guy's cynical attitude, their virtue flags war and the failure of renewable energy all combined to crash the climate crowd's bubble. There is now a mad scramble for fossil fuels. Our president is actually offering iran a nuke deal in return for oil and he's negotiating with the venezuelan dictatorship to get some of their oil too he's even considering a visit to saudi arabia to pass the begging bowl in person. What on earth are we doing we're? Now, realizing that green policies carry a very heavy price, a price that consumers and voters may not be prepared to pay in germany, a 180 they're going back to coal and nuclear, it costs 7.70 a gallon for gasoline in germany.

How about that here, at home record high gas prices, which will cost the average family an extra two thousand dollars a year? The white house simply can't explain what they're going to do about it. It's time for everyone to regroup. America has to get our own energy. The greens have to accept, we need fossil fuels and the democrats have to understand that if they go into the november elections with five dollar gas, they lose second arabani just getting started he's not wrong about that uh! It's! You know one of the big issues that you have and it's worth talking about is uh.

Well, let's, let's take a look at this because it also brings up what we we know about the keystone pipeline. Let's talk about that. Give me one second here, where my i've got here a little thing on keystone, yeah uh, though we could talk about that. Okay, um kevin laughing at everyone at the gas station is lucid and tesla.

No stop. I wouldn't be at the gas station, get it right. Um, oh - and it actually does look like so hold on, i want to see it looks like stocks are falling a little bit right now after that uk announcement. Let's look at this we'll come back to the keystone talk because i do want to talk about the keystone, but it might make more sense to talk about that.

Once biden speaks, but this is quite interesting uh you do have a little bit of a drawdown right now uh, but i i guess in short - and i want to hear what y'all think in the comments here and i do have the uh course. Member chat up as well today, today's a little bit of a special day so for the course members who are here i'll have something special tomorrow, but um i want to. I want to hear what you all think about uh. What varney mentioned that democrats are likely to get reamed in the uh midterm election cycle here? I can't personally help but agree.

I think uh kevin o'leary's right yesterday when he mentions that you might even see both chambers of congress flip republican and then, quite frankly, we're going to get nothing done in congress over the next two years, but kevin o'leary had this really good point that, like maybe We've done enough, you know, maybe maybe from 2020 like in 2020. We printed enough money for for four years and we really don't need uh to do more. It's not a terrible argument. It's not a terrible argument.

We but uh. You know there are a lot of policies, especially from uh from democrats that are hoping to get extended, like the child tax credit and i'd love to hear where, where you all stand on uh on things like the child tax credit uh getting extended. But at the same time, we're we're just watching the market right now i move down. I'm gon na adjust the chart a little bit here.

So, let's, let's back into barn, let's who this guy is with that he's wearing a cow, a cow suit. What the heck is this trump guy you want to see him come back, uh, i'm a trump policy guy. I can understand how he can be abrasive to a lot of people and that's that's not good, but if you put what he did on a piece of paper and take his name off the top, i'm all for it. Do you see a real, a real problem for the democrats? This november i mean, are they going to lose the senate and the house? Oh, i think they will.

I mean, there's nothing, it's indefensible. What they've been doing with our energy policy? We've got an answer. You know they're not stupid people, they have the answer right here and they refuse to do it because once again, this is what the overarching thing is stuart. They know better to do with your money than what you do.

They know better about what's healthier for you than you do, they know better about what's better energy for you than you do and they force it down your throat at all costs and that's the problem. We're not ready for this to abandon fossil fuels at all whatsoever. Now i think the greens have a choke hold on the democrat party and that's why the democrats cannot come up with a rational energy policy in this time of crisis. That's my opinion.

I think that's how they got in yeah. I mean they have to listen to them. Now, that's how they got in so they can't abandon them. Now, because that's exactly why he's sitting where he's sitting you got it scott sheldon, you just make so much sense.

Fella come back next week. Okay, see you again soon see you later how about this one? Europe's europe's natural gas shortage has revived talks of the east med pipeline. That's what it's called in the mediterranean. It would carry gas uh from the mediterranean sea near israel to europe yep all right.

What does the sea i mean? Personally, i think a lot of you know, i'm a big fan of of pipelines and again we'll talk about keystone a little bit more later, but uh. I think one of the big bottom lines that uh that you should consider when it comes to these the just energy policies in general, especially even for the democrats, because don't get me wrong. I'm a big fan of solar and wind and i'm a huge fan of nuclear. I really think we should be doubling down on nuclear but uh.

You know we can't flick the switch and just go. You know what oil's dirty gas is dirty go from oil and gas to zero oil and gas and go to like wind and solar. We can't pull it off. Why? Because we don't have enough batteries to actually sustain us.

Why? Why do we not have enough batteries? Because they're freaking expensive it's too much money like it's no surprise to me that california is one of the few places putting in the uh the mega packs uh, but because california is willing to spend the exorbitant amounts of money for them uh. So i mean they're. Just very very expensive: we have one here in oxnard which is uh close to where i live. This is quite wild, they put one in, they were going to put in a natural gas peaker plant uh, but but california, pretty much has said no to permitting any of those uh ever again.

What they really should do is is fix the old ones. They have make them more efficient. You know like, if we're going to be in a situation where we're still burning oil and natural gas for the next uh 10 to 15 years, as we transition at least be as clean about it as possible. I don't know: uh tell that to the purple blue hair people, kevin, hey, well, steve, you're, kicking butt with gold, so congratulations, steve likes! Investing is shout out to steve here.

He likes investing in gold, barrick gold and using dell computers see it's that's like his bio. On on the dating app? No that's all i that's all. I know, and i just know steve's here regularly and i appreciate him can't just flip this yeah i mean it is true uh but yeah. I know that you can't just flip.

The switch has been the excuse forever. That's actually a good point, it is true, but you still can't just do it. You know just because we've been saying: oh let's, we can't just flip the switch that doesn't mean that all of a sudden batteries are 10x more efficient right uh. So it's getting.

I mean, i would say, the progress we've made in the last 10 years, though, on wind, solar and batteries, absolutely phenomenal, abso-freaking-lutely phenomenal, so um yeah anyway uh, so, okay, well, you've got the market not very happy right now. Let's take a look here. So you've got a tesla down about one and a half so rotating back down here you got qqq, oh uh. This was oh.

This was monday. Let's just briefly, i want to hear the recap of jen. There are politicians, peddling conspiracy theories out there and casting down on vaccinations when it is our best tool against the virus and the best tool to prevent even teenagers from being hospitalized uh deeply disturbing. We have with us now sean duffy, okay, we're talking about going back to the vaccine.

Honestly, the vet is not something that i've really talked about in quite a while, because does anybody still think like of covid when they go out during the day is? Is that are we? Are we still thinking about that? I don't know for me. I i thought this was this. Was i mean knock on wood? I don't want to see another variant, but kind of like fingers crossed that it's over. You know i was reading.

There's a sort of worth a little side mention i was reading yesterday about how there are some noticeable uh impacts for individuals who have had covet in, like the gray matter of their brain and and how that could actually be some of the uh impact that long Cove it has but uh, even though that sounds scary. One of the cool things they mention is that uh it it. It is repairable like over time that that that also gets better. So i thought that was nice and optimistic, but also still kind of weird to read about brain changes.

Anyway, let's listen to this. What's this price due to much yeah, let's just have back lighting who needs who needs forward lights. Let's just have backlight. It thinks that the fed will have it under control.

It will follow the goldilocks kind of path it has. You know, managed to do in the past now. Having said that, i think we don't think it is that easy right now and precisely because we are in a pretty unique situation where they have to balance now: stagnation at risk i.e, high inflation, but a slowing growth possibility. It just makes the path very, very tricky, and i think so that's why, although the market seems to be a little bit sanguine about that, we are a little bit more worried jill.

Would you i mean tricky fed uh? I completely agree with with that. I um, i don't think the fed wants to force a recession, but they need to start seeing that inflation data come down which remember we have cpi coming out this thursday, which is in just two days, uh quite wild. It's coming up soon, i'm going to pull up the current estimate that we have for cpi, and so this is going to be the bloomberg estimate uh. So it's usually a consensus of about 50 economists and economists are never wrong, but uh just kidding they're always wrong, but uh.

So uh 8 30 a.m on the 10th. So in two days we are expecting year over year to actually come in at 7.8. That's a little bit lower, but oh that month over month, the survey now on month over month is expecting 0.8, which is insane because that's about 9.6 percent annualized. But if you exclude food and energy it would bring it down to about 0.5, which would be about 6 percent annualized, so a little bit lower, so really showing potentially that split of the two types of inflation, though i honestly don't know that our cpi is is Yet going to reflect this oil shock and - and we've talked about this before the reason for that - it's it's the way they actually do.

The cpi survey there's uh, there's a big lag in it. I mean we already know this big lag and the way they do their stuff. It's just ridiculous mind medicine is dirt cheap, uh, oh shorts, i'll check for you uh. Someone here is asking if mine meant what the shorts are on mine met, i'll, go and pull it up.

You know i was just thinking uh yesterday i was gon na ask um kevin o'leary. What happened to our buddy jr over at mind, medicine he left covet, is running through colombia like wildfire right now. The department of state has changed colombia to level four. Do not travel because of how bad it is.

Colombia is also going back on in lockdown. In a few weeks, wow that's wild uh. I i want to um i'm going to look at that. One i'll say i don't see covet cases - columbia, hey.

I spelled it correctly. Sometimes you put the u in, like the brand right, um yeah, it looks like they had a. They had a big old spike in uh in at the end of january here, which i think is a lot later, and that's probably why there's still so much of a reaction a lot later than what we saw here in the u.s because well then again i Mean no mid-january that should be roughly around when we had ours too. No, let me take a look here: united states yeah, that's yeah, maybe fractionally earlier like half a week earlier or so uh, but it is.

It is so nice just seeing this stuff go down. I'm so sick and tired of it. Okay, let me go back to mind med, really quick, and then we do have biden coming up here soon, all right. Let's look at the shorts i'm going to look at a few shorts here for us just to get a little bit of an update, uh mmnd right right.

No, that's mastermind, what's mind med. Would they change the ticker to mind bad? It's just i mind mine. It could be: is that really they changed the ticker all right, uh well, look at what mine is so mind, short interest tesla by the way, 2.86 short interest on mind, it's actually low 0.73. I mean like nobody's shorting it uh, pretty sure you got your shifts.

Your lemonade's still pretty high yeah shift 36 percent lmnd you're sitting at 35., pretty stable here, rk m n, md, md; okay, sorry yeah! I had the ticker wrong. Okay, six point: eight: five percent: there we go mind: medicine yeah! That's it six point: eight five! Here i can just pull it up. Oh you can see, it yourself see. Here's the this is the short interest side right here, and so you can see the shift.

The lemonade. The arc holy smokes arc is at 20 short now, wow, that's wild and the spy was what 14 15.7 it's actually come down a little bit. Look at that we kind of had a peek of shorts right there around feb 24.. Now, let's go qqq here: wow yeah! Oh, you can't really see the chart because i'm in the way, let me just show you that's the qqq chart right here and then here's the spy chart which has actually come down.

Yeah. That's interesting! All right, rip cat! Ah yeah, oh so fine yeah, let's see so fun, selfies charts not great for the shorts 21.64, and it's just been rising. You see that that's a while this is just the last month right here i mean. If i go back to the last 90 days, i mean look at that, it's just straight up.

It keeps getting shorted and shorter and shorted. Okay. Barclays now coming out worst case oil prices could climb over 200 a barrel. You know, part of me is wondering how many of these companies have massive short positions out there, and then they come out with these ridiculous.

I mean maybe they're not ridiculous from what i know, but they come out with what would appear to be these ridiculous estimates. For the price of oil and uh, i don't know - hopefully that's not the case, it just seems wild. The market is up and down like a fiddler's over yeah no kidding. Why do you think so far short keeps going up because people keep making money shorting it? You know i hate to say it, but when when a company goes down and people make money on their shorts, they short it more, it's a winning bet.

You know i hate to say it, but it has been a winning bet to short sofi. Since december i mean if, at the beginning of december you're, like i'm shorting so far, it has been a phenomenal play. It's terrible but uh. Then then, when it's really good for some people, then it you know incentivizes other people to short it uh.

It's it's a cycle. I mean it's just like it's fomo too, to some degree. You know it's kind of just like when we see uh like dwack. Okay dwack runs up to 170 dollars.

You know when it's 120, that's when people like, oh my gosh, it just keeps going up. Everybody keeps making money on this. Well, we should buy it too uh and - and so just like, that's how you drive dwack up to 170. The same thing happens on shores, except on shorts.

It's more just. It's mostly institutions, uh. Although institutions play both sides, you know they play the up and the down they're not resistant to fomo. They do the same they're people just like us.

You know, i think people think oh institutions, the hedges, the suits they're so different from just uh from from just retail buyers. Yeah. No, not really. In fact, let me get.

Let's do a little retail update here, uh retail! Let's see! Okay, i'm going to write this down hold on. Read you this, as i kind of write down some notes on this okay, so uh, it looks like, according to vantagetrack, by retail investors continued buying the dip. Yesterday yesterday, we bought 1.5 billion uh in stocks. How do we get all this money? The biggest part biggest inflow is actually energy, which is really funny at about 340 mil, because yesterday we saw energy prices holding up quite well uh.

If, well, i wouldn't say energy prices like oil or whatever. I guess i well. I guess it depends what they mean. It could be: energy like oil, like, oh, probably, occidental, that's what it was.

That's probably where the money went, because remember buffett announced that he had this huge stake, even after carl icahn sold out this huge stake in austin. That's probably where retail followed him in retail loves following buffett, so that that wouldn't surprise me at all. So i'm gon na write down that my big, my guess is that was awesome, yeah, not so dental there we go yeah. Retail investor is probably too exhausted to buy the dip in tech uh yeah.

Probably that's also, probably why we saw tesla rotate down a little bit. Tesla yesterday was had like a six percent intraday stream. Oh my gosh tesla went positive today. Yeah tesla swing yesterday was insane yeah.

Look at that you're getting that same sort of wild behavior. Today, okay, focus on buying a sector with small market cap compared to tech, which has a larger market cap really um. So this institution here thinks maybe retail is looking for that uh that um the smaller market cap, but that also implies smaller caps, which small caps haven't been doing too well interesting. Moreover, net buying was concentrated at the market open and close, which is consistent with the intraday performance of the xle, the trading in the last two days.

So the xle is a non-diversified etf, uh hold on focus, concentrated, add, open and close. So xle, i want to say that's like chevron and it's got a bunch of uh individual stocks in it so xle so wow. It's actually done very well. Look at that performance here, xle's gone from 50.

I mean this is up about 50. You know since since the crisis began, uh yeah yeah, somebody here says: i'm loving that commodities or the new amc not wrong, not wrong. Uh yeah. So i'm gon na write that down that's kind of funny.

I mean this is very much like the wheat etf that we, what you're seeing but uh when you do have uh these sorts of moves. They do attract a lot of uh retail, because that momentum and energy makes folks really excited. And then i see people in the comments write things like oh worried about the market going down. Just by you know commodities and it just kind of like feeds the sort of maddening bubble like i don't want to be invested in xle for more than like.

I don't know six months, you know like how long do you really want to be an xle uh? We do have an update here that uh oxy, which is occidental, is suggesting that us drillers cannot significantly increase output that just came through yeah. That's a bummer, but that's also along expectations, because one of the things is uh. You know kevin o'leary even touched on it yesterday, a lot of the drillers they don't want to uh, because these these commodity cycles are very boom and busty, it's even worse, in commodities than it is even like the momentum stocks uh. The boom bust cycle is crazy.

Strong and fast strong on the way up and down oh yeah. Here you go uh axis hull up. I want to know who that is. Let me see.

Oh, the ceu, the ccu ceo is uh vicki, hulib uh-huh and what's their market cap. Let's see here again, this is the stock of warren buffett. It's up four percent. Today, it's up 86 year to date, oh my gosh, 0.9 percent dividend yield in the last month.

That's up 47, very much like the xle here, uh, a p e ratio of 28 for an oil company and uh. Well, that's what happens when warren buffett takes a 10 stake. He doesn't disclose all of his positions just when when they have when they have to. But um yeah: this is a uh.

They do uh oil in the u.s, the middle east and colombia. That's interesting as well as manufacturing in the u.s, canada and chile. That's quite interesting, uh, but anyway uh so um they're mentioning where's. The other note here here.

It is um oscillos primary use of cash flow will be to reduce debt. They say that additional shale output is not likely to be met because of supply chain supply chain challenges. Hmm wonder, supply, chain challenges and oil. I wonder if that's because of logistics like moving it around or or if they have chip shortages too, or even just getting machinery pumps or whatever? Well, that's, not good for the oil outlook.

I guess challenges to shale oil. U.S shale oil growth are significant.