Welcome back to another market, open, live stream well well! Well, today, the market appears to be red and it looks like the reason for this appears to be the likelihood that jobs data just came in stronger than the market was expecting, not the official jobs data, but private jobs. Data reports now uh. Here's. Why excuse me? Okay, so my belief is uh.

We've had - and we've mentioned this on the channel before, but i'm going to give a quick little recap here, so uh private jobs, data adp jobs that it comes out on the wednesday prior to the actual jobs report. Actual jobs report comes out on friday. The adp report is seen as sort of a tool for potentially estimating or guesstimating what the actual jobs report will look like. On friday.

The jobs report came in higher than expected, and this is no surprise because, in addition to unemployment benefits wearing off for uh those off of uh or out of work, we are also in a situation where uh, when you uh got into august, which uh the last Jobs report we had was released in september based on august data. When we moved into august, we had a lot of fears about the delta variant taking off and those fears have mostly subsided. So you kind of have these two big factors that explain why jobs? It would make sense why the jobs report would come in higher. You've got the waiting delta while at the same time, reduction in unemployment benefits.

So when you combine these two things, it makes sense that all of a sudden hiring went back to boom time in september and that we saw the jobs report at least private jobs report so far increase for september, which was just released today. We expect the same thing on friday for the regular jobs report and we think that this is going to be sort of the nail in the coffin for the tapering actually happening. It's possible that the stock market is reacting to this thinking. Uh great.

This means the taper is actually going to happen and if the taper actually happens starting in november, then that cheap, easy money, kind of goes away and uh, it's still going to take a while. It's still going to take until the middle to end of next year. To to fully taper, but the taper is seen as something that takes some buying pressure out of the market uh for stocks uh. As a result, though, uh you are also seeing uh cryptocurrencies move nicely and uh that's likely, because cryptocurrencies are moving on the thought of okay.

Well, an expanding economy or a strengthening economy could actually be beneficial to a currency. Uh, like uh, like bitcoin versus something like the us dollar uh when uh, when we're doing our taper, see now a taper um. Well, let's, let's try to explain this because this is a little tricky. The taper in some sense could actually also be good for the dollar, because when we taper we're going to have less dollars, which makes the dollar potentially more valuable, it would lead bond prices to generally fall driving yields up as uh inflation expectations or higher rates are Expected and inflation expectations potentially move up uh, so you've got bond, yields that end up going up, making the dollar more attractive and potentially making just currencies in general more attractive.

The uh overheating, though, or i wouldn't say, overheating, the growing of the jobs report, though, and jobs data could potentially be an indicator that we uh we end up with higher inflation readings. Perhaps who knows, and that's uh, maybe a the rationale for that could be. If we have more hiring being done, maybe that means that hiring is being done at higher wages and potentially indicates that longer lasting, more persistent inflation than previously expected, and maybe that's why we're starting to see crypto go up so uh kind of a little bit more Of a complicated situation there, but hopefully i thoroughly broke that down, and so we've seen bitcoin move nicely here over the last few days, we've gone from the lower 40 000 range. Not that long ago here i mean take a look at this trough here in the third week of september.

This trough by the way, was really a function of the evergrand crisis. If you remove this trough, you could see where we're much more on on that trajectory of growth where we were before, except it was just kind of delayed by this whole evergreen debacle here. So this created a nice little opportunity to reduce your to reduce your cost basis and which i did do i sold my crypto and uh re-bought it lower, which was nice and uh. Now now i think those those uh catalysts keeping crypto down have actually been removed, and i think now we have more positive catalysts to look forward to uh like in 2022, when we get more positive regulation or just regulation in general, around crypto.

Yesterday i made a video about camber energy explaining why it was falling. It was down 50 yesterday presently down about percent. We've got uh meta materials also down about five percent smile direct club down about 4.6 rotating after that 15 gain yesterday, moderna down again about four percent four point: four percent that murk drug really weighing heavily on moderna here, had a nice run on uh arrival. Yesterday about three percent, but giving them more than that today, american airlines uh up about a third of a percent.

Yesterday down 3.28 now looking at uh gainers, you do have a great news at a pound. Here we touched on this yesterday: uh the new army contract pound palantir, great news, part of a second round of this same line of work, same uh same line of contract. In fact, here i have a little bit more detail on it. We can review in just a second.

Let me see here: okay here we go here, and this will take me just a minute. So, let's go ahead and jump on over to jimmy for a moment to facebook here in the a block as mark zuckerberg does strike back after whistleblower, francis haugen testified on the hill yesterday in this blog post, he says quote at the heart of these accusations. Is the idea that we prioritize profit over safety and well-being? That's just not true the argument that we deliberately push content that makes people angry for profit is deeply illogical. Jim.

He says we make our money from ads and advertisers consistently tell us. They don't want to be placed next to that kind of content. That's absolutely true! Uh. I think the more important issue with avatars by the way is whether you can do third party now that apple's changed the operating system - all right, let's touch on talent here for a moment here, let's see what we got: okay, so pound here is uh pound tier Yesterday was up about .17 percent to 24.85, it's up a little bit more now.

Uh, let's see here, i put together put together some notes on this, and we did touch on some of this yesterday. Just give me one second, here i'll talk a little bit more about it all right. There we go okay. Here we go so okay.

So, let's just briefly touch on volunteers, so yeah yesterday, palantir uh released the news that uh they were selected by the us army program manager for intelligence systems and analytics to deliver the army, intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for capability drop. Two, there was some talk about this being an indefinite contract because that's that's what they phrased it as, and yesterday we looked into what this indefinite contract actually meant, and it really just means that uh, when you have an indefinite uh contract, it's it's a fancy military Term and government term for basically saying hey for a period of time, for five years and four months and a total value of 824 million dollars, the us army would have infinite access or indefinite access to the palantir platform and uh kind of fascinating to think about. Contract negotiating like that, but uh, that's one of the reasons. Palantir is running right now, uh up only six percent right now, because the market's pretty red.

More broadly yesterday, when this was announced and after hours, the stock did go up about 13 and uh. This particular uh contract uh is is, is the second phase of uh of an existing contract that they already had uh and in theory, the army could have gone to a different company, but uh palantir was already involved in phase one, and so i suppose it makes Sense that they went uh two pounds here for the second part and uh, it's uh, you know it's! It's always interesting when you kind of read about pound here, because there are a lot of people who are super bullish on it, that there are a lot of people who are who think the company is uh over overvalued. Some folks think this is easily a forty to fifty dollar stock uh. Some folks uh are a little less optimistic about it, but uh personally, i like it uh one of the most difficult things about.

It, though, is getting insight into how how much winning a contract like the army contract really helps versus losing a contract like potentially the ice contract. Now we can always look at the dollar value, but something that i like to look at when i look at contracts is what is the potential recurring nature of that see like pounds here? Losing an ice contract potentially doesn't just mean they lost that one set of dollar value, but it also means all of the future recurring revenue that they could have gotten from that relationship with ice. Potentially now goes to a different company like whether it's raytheon or or whatever it is, and so i i think, there's some longer term implications to losing deals. We don't want to see deals, get lost, but uh.

It is nice to see uh some some excitement again for palantir bringing them up uh right now to uh. Let's see here, uh 24 74 is uh, where this brings the stock price up to right now and again yesterday and after hours, uh we're up about 13 to 14, but we have a pretty red market right now. In fact, let's go ahead and look at the industry, futures and 10-year treasuries. Here, let's just see where these stand.

Okay, here we go okay, so right now, we've got the dow jones down 0.82 percent; the s p down 0.93 nasdaq down 0.98, the 10 years. Actually, still relatively stable at 1.521, what's interesting is more and more, even though we have these beliefs that inflation is going to be here, uh more persistently than previously expected still inflecting at some point in the future, but uh likely to last longer than expected. Despite this, we're really not seeing a skyrocketing in the tenure like we saw at the beginning of last year, i'm sorry, beginning of this year, 10-year treasury. Here we go.

Let's take a look at this okay see at the beginning of the year. We had this sort of crazed run and this really led to a sharp sell-off in technology stocks and sure, right now we have had a run back up, and while that is true, that we've had this run back up, we've really been stuck uh under this sort Of one five five one, five two you've got a couple resistance levels here, we've really been stuck here, so i think it's interesting how uh the market appears to be indicating that the inflation that we have is probably the inflation level that we're going to stay at And that's going to be elevated for longer, hence a bond price. A bond yields pricing this in but and stock market, obviously being somewhat sensitive about any kind of swing like the jobs data that we just talked about. But beyond that, uh we're not seeing massive negative catalysts coming more.

What we have, in my opinion, are positive catalysts, the resolution to the debt ceiling and the infrastructure package. I think those are positive catalysts and the uh evergrand debacle has mostly faded. At this point. We have beyond uh the evergrand debacle and uh the debt ceiling and infrastructure crisis.

The really the only remaining thing is the federal reserve, with tapering uh and inflation data and uh. I feel like we're almost on a set path for that begin. The taper november 4th end it somewhere between the the summer and fall of 2022 and uh and then begin raising rates once uh in 2022, twice in 23 and three times in 2024 seems like a pretty clear path. The stock market's still relatively nervous, though, because we don't have all of those answers yet, and we do expect more of those within the next two weeks, so this volatility here leading up to october 15th through october 18th, my opinion kind of to be expected.

So let's go ahead and take a look at b, ptc usd again here. Yeah, look at this run in bitcoin right now, absolutely incredible! Very nice run in bitcoin. My uh, let's see here hold on my. My real belief is that this is this.

Is your definition of the china crisis going away is what we believed was the big negative catalyst for crypto in the first place and uh, that is, that has now uh escaped us yeah. I wonder, though, let's see here fine on the five-minute chart. We really just took off just now look at this folks. This is about, let's go to the one minute, actually yeah.

This is the one minute here. It's really been in the last three minutes. It looks like we all of a sudden had sort of a a heavy bicep here within the last three minutes yeah. This is incredible.

So, within the last three minutes we have gained uh roughly two thousand dollars. I'm sorry almost three thousand dollars at one point, but now down to about two thousand dollars in gains in about four or five minutes. That's a nice spike here. In my opinion, that represents institutional trading uh moving into uh the stock.

It's also fascinating how we broke through this uh resistance level, and now we moved almost immediately to uh to slightly above the support line that we have here, because we're sitting right here, which is the same as that resistance line. Uh pounds here is still moving up about seven, seven to eight percent right now: hud 8 mining moving up as well, 4.27 coinbase coming back up a little bit 1.44 and otherwise most of the smaller cap stocks selling down, including matterport here down two percent in the Pre-Market sun power, 1.85, lucid 23.53 end phase sitting at 145, again really getting stuck your docusign 252 nice nice drawdown here on docusign continuing another opportunity to add airbnb uh airbnb sitting at 141., we're almost back at ipo pricing here, my goodness. Let me see here! Oh, i'm sorry airbnb is at 164.. I misread that.

I was going to say that's uh this. I can't believe it got that low already yeah. I misread that. I must have read.

I read, i must have read. Alibaba whoops win resorts etsy this guy's down as well tesla's also down tesla apple, the fang yeah, there's apple apple down 0.87 tesla down 0.61 and really eyes right now on bitcoin for running right up right through look at that run, it's kind of like we took Off from our support over here, look at this shelf that we really sat on right here, sat on the shelf started, rising and all of a sudden we got the traders boom, bring it right up to the line. That's roughly where we sit right now. Is this line, although we do have a little bit of uh settling down as you? You react to this quick breakout that we had here: 54 300: it's where we sit now all right.

Let's go ahead and look at some of the news of the day and see if we can get a little bit more insight into what's going on all righty, let's see here, okay, let me see quickly what some of you were saying here last week i was Worried that my portfolio was too cryptic crypto heavy. Well now you don't have to worry about that. One uh yeah good job on btc, lucid about to open at a 12-day low yep. What's your question, daniel chinese has a minor problem with their economy is.

Is that, like a pun on like mining and uh, but also being small, i believe the chinese do buy a lot of bitcoin. I think they're, one of our top five to seven countries in terms of crypto ownership and uh when's, the hippo video coming out. I already made a hippo video uh, but i don't have plans for another at this point: okay, good. Let's go ahead and take a look at uh, some of the news going on so uh.

Let's see okay here read the runes inflation is showing staying power. Well, let's take a look and see why inflation is showing staying power, at least according to bloomberg. Now i i want to make this very clear before we talk about inflation's staying power and the runes of inflation, i think, is an interesting reference to uh, mythicness and video games. I want to make it very clear.

I believe that i've been extremely consistent, that inflation is something that would skyrocket thanks to base effects that is comparing to the whole of last year. This is something that i've been talking about since november, one of the first people to warn that we're going to have massive click-baity levels of inflation in the summer of 2021. that inflation ended up coming slightly earlier, or at least the fear of it started getting priced In in rather than in april and may and june as we originally anticipated, it really started getting priced in in february in expectation of what would happen in april may and june, and the expectation was that inflation would rotate down inflect down, not disappear, but inflect down. Sometime in september and october inflationary readings, which our first one of these come out on october 13th, and when we would have this inflection to the downside, the hope would be that the stock market would rally under the realization that okay, finally, we're rotating the downside.

Now there is this unfortunate possibility that this timing is wrong and that it's going to take longer for us to see that inflection to the downside at least a sharper inflection on the downside, see in my opinion, if we're at let's say 5.3 year-over-year inflation. And then next month, we're at 5.2 percent and the next month we're at 5.1 we're really at a high shelf of gains and we're staying high. That's bad right! What we really want to see is inflation go down like substantially and we want to see readings coming in at like four seven, four, two, three five and a rapid deceleration in uh in inflation. That's what we're hoping for, but unfortunately, as i discussed in a video yesterday on inflation, we have a lot of issues that are getting worse, not better.

Consider the fact that supply chain issues, even though companies are dealing with them better, even though we're investing more in factories and manufacturing, and hiring to try to deal with some of the inflationary headwinds that we have we're still facing the risk that supply chain issues are Going to last longer used car shortages are going to last longer labor shortages, as as individuals, retool are going to last longer. European gas prices just surged again bringing natural gas prices up 60 in just two days. Commodity prices at all-time highs lumber prices slowly starting to climb again right. These are all things that we've got to look at when we consider inflation and consider look, those gains aren't going to last forever, so the thesis is still correct.

The problem is - and we don't know yet - because october 13th hasn't come yet the problem is or are we actually going to see inflation lasting longer than expected and right now the answer to that appears to be yes. Now we're going to look at this bloomberg article here on. It is an opinion piece on why inflation might have more staying power, but i just quickly want to throw this chart up. I keep throwing this chart up here.

Uh shout out to bloomberg for this. Obviously, because we could see the expectations for inflation here and we could see that by q3 2022. We really expect to be back at around that under two percent level of inflationary readings. The problem is that that bump there that that hill could end up being a lot wider than expected and that we might not that that whole left side decline there might end up shifting over by uh a quarter.

You know three months four months, five months, six months who knows and how fat it is is is really the question here. There is no question that inflation will end up being transitory. The question is, is it going to be? Is that inflection? At the end of this year, or is that inflection at the end of next year, it's a difference of of potentially a year, which is not so great. That's a big difference.

All right. Let's go ahead and take a look at what this uh op piece in bloomberg shows here. So this op piece here says a test for the fed, and this is by john authors. He is a senior editor for markets before bloomberg.

He spent 29 years with the financial times, so he is an uh, an author, a writer for papers, he's a journalist and he wrote an opinion piece here. How worried about persistent inflation? Should we be and look it's easy to make fun of the federal reserve? Like? Oh yeah sure inflation's transitory, we get it like. Everybody makes fun of the fed. For that, that's fine, but in in the long run, when we look at again the chart that i just showed it's going to be right, at least that's what we believe.

Who knows? Maybe it just collapses and we go back to the 1970s, but i think that's more. Like a 10 case scenario, what is much more likely in the 90 direction is that we are going to have temporary inflation, but we just don't know when that big inflection is going to be it's going to be. This fall in the spring and the summer of next year in the fall we'll see. Obviously, the hope is sooner rather than later, but anyway, how worried should we be, and perhaps more to the point, how worried is the federal reserve digging into the latest data suggests that the risk of persistent inflation are increasing, while shifting policies in decr and dc suggest That we may soon have a new and relatively unfamiliar senior team at the top of the fed to interpret the data.

The following charts come from alex pell, a u.s economist at a financial group. Last week, personal consumption expenditure c pce data for august were initially hailed in the market as showing inflation pressures were reducing. Pell argued that they show the opposite that inflation rose slightly on a month to month in august basis, compared to uh september uh. I think they mean compared to um compared to the month prior pc yeah, because we don't have our september data yet uh yeah anyway, even though there was a reduction in the contribution from restaurants, air travel and hotels, three sector sectors that should benefit from the post Pandemic reopening so anyway uh so, in other words, the headline data showed a slight decline for pc inflation.

But when we looked at the month over month, data from august to uh september, we saw this slight little kind of tick up here and that month over month, uh take up is something that uh that's a little bit more. Concerning, meanwhile, look at the broad categories of the pce basket found that most were distinctly above their typical range. Let's take a look here, so this is the pers personal consumption expenditures, uh measure of inflation and uh. This here shows if we take a look at some of the month-over-month ones here, larger gain here: yeah 0.4 in the total gains here, goods still increasing on a month-over-month basis here, uh 0.21 larger than the prior month at 0.15 services coming at 0.19, a little less Than that 0.25 prior - and this is services - is something that that really has the capacity for bumping a good chunk here.

So uh they're going to be a lot of eyes on services. Okay, let's get back in there here we go okay. Meanwhile, look at the broad categories found. Okay, we saw it.

We read that beyond digging into the official data, pell also contributed to the last contributed to the growing industry of looking through the fed's archives for every last piece of research on inflation, hoping to find clues. This yields research by the fed into cyclical and acyclical inflation. Acyclical inflation arise in the form of sudden shocks and will be transitory. Cyclical inflation tied to moves in the economic cycle will be more steadily and slowly will move more steadily and slowly and will be much harder to bring down ooh acyclical inflation actually went negative early in the pandemic, then shot to the highest level.

This confirms the transitory talk. That's good news. The bad news is that cyclical inflation has now taken over. Oh, look at that acyclical inflation taking over here versus cyclical inflation, uh or i'm sorry, cyclical inflation taking over versus a cyclical cyclical inflation, is now at the highest level since 2006 before the financial crisis.

To the extent it's positive is a symptom of the recovery in the economy, but such a sharp increase from already high levels is unusual and suggests the fed should be careful. Oh, this is interesting. Let's talk more about this in just a moment. Let's go ahead and get the bell here and see how the market opens and then we'll come back to some of these differences between acyclical cyclical inflation.

Fascinating listening rates are going up a little bit but they're. Not that big. You don't think it's a great story. No, i mean i wish people would stop talking about the rate story.

I got a, i got a three and a quarter, i'm getting and believe me. It is not a favored treat because i do not have a regular, so-called paycheck because i'm a contract employee. So i'm getting what everybody gets and if you're fighting for the money plus it's it, the process is four months whoa that is really red. Look at that! That's like over 95 percent red i'll, give you everything you need it's not enough! No, it's not enough! All right, let's take a peek here at how things are actually opening quickly and then we're going to go back to that article, because it's actually quite fascinating, so uh some volume here at the start on the s p looks like that volume is actually pushing us Down a little bit, we jump on over to the etsy chart.

We have a slight green chart here. Volatility index up a pallet here rotating down at the open, looks like some profit taking on fears. Here we do have hud 8 mining moving up nicely, which is uh, which is very good. Let's get to our watch list here and i'll.

Look at some of the changes here. Blue apron actually moving up above up nicely at the moment at least oh wait, where'd. It go that may have been a glitch where'd. It go.

Yeah blue apron's gone anyway, uh the miners uh marathon riot hud-8, these guys moving up nicely coinbase coming up about 2.75, really just crypto related assets, moving very very nicely here. Looking at the downside, camber energy. Actually pairing some of its losses. Nice actually gains here and let's see if this ends up leading to a rebound.

One of the things i mentioned yesterday in the camber video is that uh momentum stocks when they do suffer these massive drawdowns of sometimes 70. They get to these low levels where folks are like. This is cheap relative to where we've been used to it. Let's buy the dip, and so i would expect that there's a little bit of buy the dipping going on here.

Just remember when you were trading in canberra, you're trading at least i believe you're trading, i don't believe people investing in camber are, are really looking at the fundamentals going. Oh yeah, this is very nice. I don't. I don't believe that all right - let's see here, workhorse proterra, turning red red red root insurance company red we've - got uh lidar red here.

We've got wish uh, also moving red, but starting to show a little bit of green. Let's see here, uh cheesecake factory. How are some of these doing red with a little bit of green, coming and phase? Let's see if we can pull end phase here for a moment, that's jd.com. Here's end phase a little mixed at the start sitting at 144.

How are some of the fang names doing google actually turning green here, then we've got square turning green uh. Let's see if that means the spy is trying to start rotating up yeah it is, it is, looks like we're getting a little bit of that by the dip happening here. A firm, also showing that sort of green here so market does appear to be picking up. The buy tip movement here which uh, if you want to pick up up to 70 dollars of free stock, make sure to go to met kevin dot, com public.

They won't buy or sell your information and they don't use payment for order flow, so go to metcam.com public to uh, sign up for public and get up to seventy dollars for free. That link is right next to the link down below for the programs on building your wealth. You get 41 off. With that diamond hand, coupon code, all right, so a little bit of recovery coming to stocks right now, which is going to bring us green to some more things.

We've talked about a crypto catalyst here, uh, potentially being the stronger jobs data in helping reiterate that potentially inflation is slightly higher and potentially more lasting, and even though we get more hiring done, this could potentially squeeze jobs, leading inflation to rise and uh by with more Hiring we have the more. We actually reduce the available supply of other workers, uh leading to potentially wages to go up even more right sort of the argument here, but uh, let's jump in just beyond crypto for a moment and go back to this argument. So let me catch you up, so we've had this discussion here about how inflation uh appears to be a transitory for longer. That doesn't mean that it's wrong, that it won't be transitory.

It's just here for longer and there's this bloomberg opinion piece where uh individuals have gone through some of the federal reserve, archives and they've discovered this difference between something known as cyclical inflation and acyclical inflation, and, what's important to know, is that uh that what what ends Up happening is we have the situation of acyclical inflation being something that can be transitory and acyclical. Inflation has begun to fall from its peak. The bad news is that cyclical inflation is taking over and when we think of acyclical just associate a cyclical with transitory and cyclical with not transitory. That's what they're suggesting here and so, while we're seeing the transitory one go down, which is good, we're seeing the one.

That's not transitory go up, and this is really started. Uh in the latter part here of 2021 really beginning about three months into this year, but continuing now and so, let's move on over here cyclical inflation is now at the highest level since 2006, before the financial crisis and uh. To some extent, this is a symptom of the recovery, but it's also increased at a sharper rate than the recovery that we've seen in 2020, uh and 2020.. Now, if you put this together, uh with with uh sort of other indicators from the federal reserve, the opinion author here suggests that it's easy to put together a narrative to explain why the central banks sharply more hawkish or has been more hawkish in the last few Weeks in the last few weeks, we've seen a jerome powell, that's much more like we're going to taper.

We've met the conditions for substantial for the progress, it's time to start tapering, and so the argument here is that if policymakers are reading the metrics that their own research departments are talking about, then we all find reasons to be more hawkish on the economy and potentially Reduce that monetary support beyond looking into policy of research departments, calling how the fed will react to inflation over the next few months also requires that predicting who will be heading the institution. Well. This is interesting because there's talk about potentially jerome powell, not being renominated, because you've got folks like elizabeth warren freaking out over him, i'm not so worried about somebody else taking over. I think the transition right now would be a little crazy for the biden administration uh.

So we'll see but like like it says here, bettors are probably right that powell remains they're. Talking about predicted odds. Bettors are probably right that powell remains the clear front runner and president biden continues to voice confidence in him. But the fact that the president needs to say so out loud demonstrates that the last few weeks have weakened powell's position.

Also true on the subject of growth. Another regional, fair in atlanta or another regional fed in atlanta has attracted growing attention for its gdp now forecast, which attempts to capture how fast the economy is growing in real time. The latest revision was slightly unwelcomed, a cut in the current growth rate. Yeah.

Look at that if this is a gdp and now we're seeing a nice decline here in gdp growth that potentially means you're facing more of that stagflationary risk right where you're seeing inflation lasting longer, especially cyclical inflation, pushing us up higher with inflation being. Maybe the reason why inflation is sticking around longer at the same time, an economy - that's growing slower, but it's you know potentially stokes those fears of stagflation. Oh there. It is.

This still isn't stagflation right because we're not quite there yet, but there we go. A combination of slowing growth and what looks like an increasingly durable rise in inflation would be a severe test for any central bank. If it turns out the fed gets new leadership, the historic record suggests we can expect to have a few serious miscommunications with the markets. In the first few months, this i don't think we would want to see, is having a different fed chair with potentially different policies.

Uh and a different way of communicating those policies with without us being as familiar as jerome as we are with jerome, could could lead to some heart palpitations for the market, so with stagflation concerns back on the loose and egged on by problems with fuel, like literally Natural gas and oil - this has been a useful juncture to receive the monthly download of the ism purchase manager. Survey. Uh, okay, with numbers above uh 50. Remember we're expecting expansion.

Quantitative news is good, at least if you're worried about stagflation right, because we have more growth. At manufacturing, but uh, let's see here, purchase manager index, including uh, those for the world, the eurozone, japan, the uk china compiled by market, remain the positive again good for growth. However, questions asked about of managers about pricing say that in general we continue to face price pressures. We touched about this as well uh in my inflationary video, in terms of why we're seeing inflation potentially lasting longer.

But let's see here ocean freight delays, delivery and availability of raw materials. Customer demand continues to swell still amazed by the labor market. We used to have a hundred applicants for an opening now we're seeing 10 and often the applicant does not show for the interview. My goodness, our company's employ entire supply chain continues to have significant challenges, getting manpower which is adding to production delays.

Basically, stagflation per se looks unlikely on this basis. Inflation caused by shortages of components and labor looks to be a real risk, and this is why we're seeing that inflation lasting longer thanks to those who have contributed questions. Okay, let's see what else we have here. As a result, everybody who wants to be successful as builders of new technology companies wants to work with those who are the very best investors.

Uh demand exceeds supply. Venture capital is not known about the money. So what are they suggesting? There's a shortage of venture capital? I can't imagine there's a shortage of venture capital, but maybe there's a shortage of of some of the leaders or the best names in venture capital. High demand for the best names survival tips.

Okay. So what do we got here? Uh? Let's see sports analogy. Listen to frank sinatra: really: that's their survival tip. Okay.

I am very interested in this. This discussion on the difference between acyclical and cyclical inflation, and what i really want to know is what drives cyclical inflation more, and so, let's see this, let's do a quick look here. Uh pimco's got a piece on this, so cyclical inflation, where is it really? Okay? Uh cyclical outlook, no they're not really helping us. Okay here we go.

The federal reserve board actually has a discussion on this, so this is their chart on this, and i want to see what's contributing to the cyclical aspect. Let's see here cyclical contributions. Okay, here we go so here we go. What is this? Cyclical contribution is blue and then they have healthcare over here.

Let's, okay, here we go hold on chart 2 shows monthly pce price inflation as a combination of cyclical blue and acyclical components. Green, that's interesting! So you actually really see a spike over here, not so much. Oh, that's confusing! Here! It's showing a cyclical jumping, but that's not what we're showing over here. Why do they got ta, make it so complicated that is so weird? Okay, let's briefly, try to understand this and where we're going to jump on over to the sticks here, look at this uh personal consumption expenditures, one of our tracking tools.

What okay? The data on this page divide categories into cyclical acyclical, cyclical components are where prices tend to be more sensitive to economic conditions. A cyclical are more sensitive to industry, specific factors; okay, so cyclical, meaning everything, acyclical, meaning specific industries. If the relationship between the unemployment gap and categories inflation rate is negative and statistically significant, the category is considered to be cyclical, not as okay got it. So that's how they calculate so.

The figures show do the large size of the health care services within a cyclical measure and its dependence on administered prices the contribution days to go through the right, okay, god all right. It's just weird. It doesn't make sense to me. Why is it acyclical here inflecting down, but here they're, showing and reflecting up unless the time frame is different here? Not really.

That is weird. I cannot make sense of this yet so we're going to come back to this, because this is is is pretty interesting and this is probably going to be something that begets making a more detailed video on. But anyway, let's go back to the sticks for a moment, because their breakdown is a little bit complicated and we'll figure that out but uh. Let's go back to what we've got actually happening in the market here, and it looks like despite the fact that we started out with a nice dip.

We've actually gone back to some gains here. Take a look at this a firm after a green day. Yesterday up 3.58 percent, again we saw some red for the first two minutes in the spy and it looks like we went green right after that. We've kind of flattened a little bit, so we've actually got a lot more things going green here.

Look at that docusign! Actually going green, it was just at 252 within the last 10 minutes here, trade desks, going green dd's, going green lucid's going green matter, port's going green. A lot of things that were red at the open here are green uh. That tesla was down point eight percent and uh. It's going green here, neo going green still sitting at 34, uh so still lower than where it has been same thing with end face still lower than where it has been, but again showing the resilience of the market.

Fascinating? What an incredible u-turn here, uh, with the exception of some of these smaller cap companies here camber some of the recovery stocks uh like the airline stocks, still rotating down uh owlette, still still rotating down a little bit that bad news on the uh the fda. I think that fda news by the way is way overblown, so i definitely bought uh bought the dip on outlet. We've got metamaterials hippo wind resorts, canadian, solar, okay, dutch bros disney some more recovery. Moving to the downside today, all right - let's uh, let's get back to some of the other news headlines, we'll come back to this discussion here about about why we're seeing uh you know economic, wide inflation versus just sector, specific inflation.

I think it's an interesting argument, but i think the bottom line is more inflation here, for, for the time being, unrelenting political, brinksmanship, edges, u.s closer to fault, political brinksmanship is something that we seriously deal with almost every single time. We have these negotiations on the debt ceiling and it's just kind of exhausting uh or anytime. We have uh political packages that need to be passed for some reason. Congress just wants to edge every single package that uh that we have.

I i i don't know why they do that, but uh. I guess they got to work on their re-election bids uh bank of america bumps its minimum wage again on the way to 25 an hour. The latest increase to 21 keeps the bank on track for its 2025 goal of 25 an hour wow uh all right. Let's see what we got over here, it's going back to the evergrand crisis, all right back to evergrant.

Let's take a look over here because again, in my opinion, the evergrand, a crisis abating, is really good for crypto, uh and uh. That's why uh i invested more into crypto than what i even previously had into crypto, as the ever grand crisis started, inflecting to be less fearful and so uh. What do we have here? China's property industry has suffered its default, its first default on a dollar bond. Since evergrand sunk deeper - and this was fantasia - we covered this yesterday - it's interesting that that thing brought up about again today.

This company develops high-end apartments and urban renewal projects failed to repay a 205 million dollar bond that came due monday, prompting a flurry of downgradings, but this is a relatively small company here. So i don't think anybody looks at this fantasia issue as something that's actually going to create any kind of contagion in the market or really even any kind of fear. Creditors are now scanning debt repayment calendars as they try to suss out where the next flash points across an increasingly strained property market may be yeah well um, as long as they're smaller firms and the chinese communist party continues to cooperate with developers at the local level. We're going to have a limited risk of contagion here.

In fact, i think i saw something exactly on this here. Uh, let's see here. Where were we i? Yesterday we had the president of hong kong speaking, and i was watching this quite a bit yeah because we you've got uh. You've got the same thing happening in well.

A lot of a lot of these. These stocks are obviously listed on the hong kong stock exchange. Some are cross-listed over to shanghai. Let's see here, okay, fantasia's, missed payment provides a clear sign that, despite piecemeal bailouts of select evergrand assets, property markets remain stressed.

The rot is unlikely to stop here right, but the other thing that was within this research i was doing yesterday, indicated that we still have uh very strong local municipalities in china because you could have, if you start having weak cities in china, then you potentially in My opinion lead to more um contagion risk, because if cities start failing and the real estate developments start failing uh and then there's no city to bail them out, that's when you start getting larger issues in my opinion and so far we're not really seeing that. So this we talked about a good chunk yesterday, so we're not going to talk about it again right now, all right, let's see here what else do we have here, mm-hmm check out a forbes article, goldman flags, eight? Okay, let's see goldman sachs 8.2 trillion risk. Let's take a look at what you got here. This is from september 30th.

Okay, let's get rid of the ad. If we can nope there, we go all right, perfect, go away all right. What do we got here? The real worry concerning china, evergrand default drama is inevitable. Where there's smoke.

There's fire paranoia that accompanies the death symbol. Most worrisome uh is surging local government debt levels. This is interesting. This is counter to what bloomberg was suggesting.

Uh, surging local government debt levels that xi jinping as men may have done their best to hide default troubles of the globe's. Most indebted property development seem like small, embers compared to the 8.2 trillion dollars worth of local government financing vehicles outstanding, and that's just what we know of it's an interesting point that uh. If the cities are heavily indebted uh, then then any trouble brewing for them again. Spills over now so far, then there have been a lot of eyeballs on this people and analysts are suggesting stability, but who knows you know where those suggestions coming from and are they accurate but they're right? That's that's exactly why this is a good reference.

Thank you for sending this to me because uh this is exactly something that you do want to be careful of is uh the. How solid the municipalities are: local government borrowing schemes scratch at another where's their where their smoke? There's fire worry china's massive shadow banking universe. To be sure, china's government is part of the efforts to rein in shadow banking has taken aim at more than a trillion dollars of opaque products marketed as low risk and high yield. All too often, these cash management products have channeled money into riskier borrowers, such as developers right in june, the people's bank of china and china, banking and insurance regulatory commission restricted such products from buying bonds rated lower than aaa okay.

Second level of debt loss of flexibility could create problems in the short term. Okay, all right, no particular suggestions of issues beyond the fact that there's potentially a lot of debt, but i think the question becomes what are the historic levels of this debt? 52 percent of china - okay, let's see here chinese debt to gdp um! Okay, let's see here, these charts should dramatically increase in chinese dad. What time is this uh? This was june 28th. Let's see what we have here.

Okay, where are the charts? Here? We go. Total debt to gdp - well, this makes sense china's gone up just like every other country breakdown of china's debt. Okay, here we go: china's domestic debt government, general government, borrowing household borrowing, non-financial corporations. What is a non-financial corporation, so this would be any any company basically got.

It makes sense that they're the largest i mean that could be like property developers, because they're, not financial, right, um, china, climbs in the world's economic ranking in nominal dollars in usc. It's kind of cool this little sliding scale here: okay, chinese, wonder if we can look up chinese municipalness, let's see here so this reuters article says local government debt sets at 3.9 trillion dollars. Why did they hear they say 8.2 trillion dollars? That's interesting! Local government financing vehicles - hmm massive hidden debt. Okay, so maybe are they thinking that there's more the default troubles at the globe's? Most indebted property development seem likely small embers compared to the 8.2 trillion of local government financing vehicles outstanding.

How do they have such a disparity? In how much local government financing is outstanding, wait? How are they reporting to the reuters article? That's literally the one that i was just looking at, but it says three point that doesn't make sense. The reuters article says 3.97 trillion dollars with hit plus hidden debt. Oh here namura estimated in a note that local government debt reached 45 trillion yuan, okay, so 45 divided by 6.48. That's six point: nine four, six point: nine four plus that doesn't make sense either six point: nine four plus three point: nine seven yeah see that wouldn't make sense.

If you added those together, where did they get this from? Where did they get 8.2 trillion dollars worth of local government financing outstanding? I don't get it yeah that that doesn't make sense to me - and i i mean i really. I trust reuters more than i trust. Forbes local government debt stood at nine point or sorry, 3.9 trillion the end of 2020, but then there could be hidden all right, well, they're, not making it clear. The ccp made it up says someone uh, because it's all a lie: oh gosh yeah, all right.

Let's do a quick look at the sticks and then we'll come back. I want to explore. I want to understand this a little bit more yeah. Okay, let's see here, i'm going to write this down: l g, f, v; okay, all right! Let's go to uh the sticks again here for a moment, so uh crypto, you know, what's fascinating, is uh.

It looks like cardano took a little bit longer to catch up with this uh rally in btc, and it's actually not rallying as much cardano has been a little bit more of a flatliner here ever since really the uh hard four on uh on smart contracts. I'm sorry not hard for it's. It's the system-wide upgrade, i suppose i'd be a fork yeah. Would it be considered a fork? Is the um? Let me see here, cardano uh.

No, it was. It was a hard fork. Of course it was uh. It was the smart contract, hard fork, hard fork and wasn't it alonso.

I haven't looked into it this in a couple weeks here: uh alonso hard fork on saturday yeah the alonzo hard fork. It was a hard four, okay got it uh, and that was on september 15th and what's interesting, is you kind of had a drawdown in cardano leading up to september 15th and it's kind of been rotating down since then? And so i wonder if this was sort of a catalyst point to where traders were trading out of it before that catalyst point and afterwards. So i find that interesting that cardano has been a little bit of a laggard, but then again it's also done substantially. I mean it's done incredibly here since the lows which we bought.

Some of these quite a few of these lows. Actually most of most of the buying was done over here. Remember, of course, any time i send buyers sell or anytime i buy or sell anything. I send alerts in the stocks and psychology money group check out that link down below and the bundle coupons for the other programs as well.

Most common is people getting real estate, investing and stocks and psychology of money, but and then some people will add property management or something else, but anyway, this um. This is certainly in defiance to the pattern that we've seen at ethereum or bitcoin uh, where you have a little bit more of a push to the upside here more recently, but in cardona you sort of had that front loaded sitting at 54, 000 right now on Bitcoin kind of drawing down a little bit here after uh some of this, this breakout that we saw okay. So, let's see here a firm 3.55, it's pretty cool to see really just a firm go from in the toilet at open. You know it was down two and a half percent to uh to up three point: three percent.

I mean that's a five percent swing here, so we've really had uh some recovery here cloud cloudflare nice as well up a couple percent silo coming up expi coming up. Looking to the downside, it looks like you have tmc metals camber, getting worse spirit, airlines, really the airline's getting whacked here. Why are the airlines getting hit so hard? It's probably because of fuel costs. That's the only thing i could really assume.

Let's see here i'll go ahead and log into the term we'll see if we can learn a little bit more, all right all right. Let's see what we have here, all right so pulling this up uh in the meantime, it looks like uh steve here is trying to get some of the numbers together. Thank you for that. So uh you mentioned cities, cities and provinces sold about 1.9 trillion of refinancing bonds in the first six months, but refinancing just replaces old debt with new debt.

So i don't know that that's really going to increase the number hmm yeah. I do think it's. The fuel costs on the airlines, but we're going to find out exactly why the airlines are falling. Let's do that together here.

American airlines see here all right, let's see here so jetblue and american airlines share slide as goldman cuts, ratings and targets. I see u.s daily traffic fell 25 yesterday. Why was yesterday such a slow day wow? It actually says here american uh airlines downgraded to a sell from neutral at goldman sachs. Well, there's your rationale in terms of why the airlines are going down they're getting they're getting ratings cuts yeah they look into american lithium gosh yeah.

I just don't know much about the mining companies at all. It's really mining and extraction updates on projects and development. Let's see what they're, what they're up to so oh, it's, a canadian company, okay, so big smokey crescent dunes acquisition, closed drill up to 15 new holes to test high-grade target areas recently acquired land in nevada, reverse circulation, drills to be mobilized in two to three weeks Plans to twin jeez exploration, drilling commence, gosh, there's, there's a lot to know about mining, i'm like the furthest from somebody knowledgeable about mining, and i don't know much about commodities. So i try to stay away from this.

I'm interested to learn more, but i mean i don't know what you expect me to tell you when you ask me in a super chat here: uh for for seven canadian dollars uh what what my thoughts are. Sorry but anyway, let's go back to some of the sticks here: okay, so faraday futures yeah, look at the smaller caps here. Getting wrecked, beachbody spirited here are the airlines. We talked about the airlines uh route down 4.24 faraday futures camber workhorse a lot of pain.

Over here i mean some incredible pain at these companies. Recovery stocks, like cheesecake, also rotating down, makes me wonder these smaller companies here why the market is punishing us so badly. Look at root, for example, uh root when it ipo'd ran up to 29. Now it's at four dollars like how does it? How does the market misprice that badly, that's incredible? It's just momentum bleed out is really what it is: amc down, three percent.

What's amc? Now amc sitting at 36 dollars canoe is sitting at 6.66 mp material 31. Let's see what else bed bath and beyond stand a little bit win resorts back to 83. where's, wait, where's, good old wayfair. Look at that one wafer's down 1.7 nvidia's down one autodesk is down neo's down again.

Neo was green. What happened? Did we just go red again see here? Oh my gosh. Look at the s p. 500.

Folks like this is like it's like clickbait. It's. You literally have a red, open, uh, 15 minute rally and then a collapse what's crypto doing it's also drawing down a little bit more of a of a bleed pattern here. Let me see here so u.s stocks became cheaper this year as prices climbed to records and even more so when the rally faltered during this past month, uh s p, 500 12 month forward, p e ratio stood at 21.5.

It peaked down september, 2nd at 22.6. Oh, i'm sorry, no, no, it peaked higher than that. It peaked at uh closer to over 23, which was up from the start of the year when we started about now. This article is a little funny.

Let me see if i can just pull the chart yeah there we go okay. Here we go so s: p: 500s forward, p e price to earnings ratio. Here we go so start of the year. We were at a forward p e of about okay, 22.8, and now we sit at 22.2 here.

Take a look at this i'll show you i'm just gon na take a sec all right, let's go over here! Okay, this is from bloomberg, so shout out to bloomberg - and here we go. The white line is your forward: p e ratio for the s p 500, and you can see that really declining, which really is a sign that things are becoming less expensive really where on a forward p e ratio, because earnings are going up at companies on a.