What's going on everybody welcome back to the channel, we have a pretty good video here for you today, so for the 600 to maybe a thousand, if we're lucky and youtube uh actually helps us out, you guys are all gon na see this video. So i appreciate you guys tuning in so this is what we have in store for today, wednesday may 4th. This most excitement is going to be 2 p.m. 2.

30 p.m. With the fomc announcement, we're basically they're expecting we're expecting a 0.5 interest rate hike which we'll talk about in a second, it's just hilarious. It's comical, it's actually what it is. This is all just comical, so anyways we're going to talk a little bit about the interest rate hike um.

This is what you have coming up throughout the day for your economic calendar. All right next thing, we're going to look at is the balance sheet, so this is something i just started looking at the other day, a little more closely um, but i'll i'll walk through with you guys, so something i've been paying attention to recently is they said That they're going to be tapering, so we're actually starting to see some pullbacks in the fed's balance sheet and what i'm most concerned with is seeing. How closely does the stock market correlate with these dips and these pullbacks in the balance sheet? Okay, so right around february is when um yeah, i would say basically beginning of this year into february, is when the uh uh sorry, the um, the federal reserve, uh employees, if you may um, were banned from trading equities right. You know - or it was a conflict of interest for them to be invested in the market while also being in charge of the monetary policy.

Basically, as soon as they were unable to participate in the market, the market started to drop coincidence, probably not but anyways, regardless. What we want to see is: is there correlation between the tapering of the balance sheet now and stock prices? So what i did was, i went ahead and i timed up all of these pullbacks this one, this one and this one with the market and they're, not exact. But if you do look within just a few short days once the pullback in the balance sheet starts. We get a re uh.

The market basically goes down, so we'll show you that right now i will not take too much time on it, but this right here is march 21st, okay and then this one right here was like april 16th or something like that. Let me just double check all right, so this is uh 23rd, and this is the 13th all right. So we're just going to do those two all right so 23rd and the 13th, all right so the 23rd and the 13th is when uh they started to. Arguably uh reduce that balance sheet a little bit, so the 23rd is right here.

So this is the 23rd. So that's when the pullback really started and then market goes down all right and then the other one was the 13th, which was right here all right and then they start to pull back and sell more. And then the market goes down more all right. So we're starting to see you know potential correlation between reducing of the balance sheet and equity prices following suit.

So it will be interesting to keep up with that over the next couple months to see if the balance sheet does in fact keep getting reduced, or do they keep printing and buying to oblivion. Okay, before i continue uh as well, we got to bring this back up and go uh fed balance sheet really quickly bring this back up before we continue. I just want to let you know. This is the main culprit.

This whole money supply balance sheet. This is the main culprit for inflation. Whatever the white house is telling, you right now is pretty much a lie: there's slight truth to it, but unless they were telling you that putin's price hike began in about 2009, then they have no idea what they're talking about putin's price hike started here. So if you believe that inflation has been caused by putin, then you believe it was him that started the inflationary measures back in 2009..

If you don't believe putin's inflationary measures started in 2009, then you would disagree with what the white house is telling you right now. Okay, so just an fyi inflation started here: okay, so putin. Thank you for screwing up starting in 2009. Okay! So now that you know that inflation has started in 2009 and we've ramped up to here, do you really believe a point? Five percent basis: point hike is going to curb inflation.

Well, apparently, some idiot does possibly right here. You can see in the headlines. 6 46 a.m. This morning fed expected to hike interest rates by half a percentage point to curb inflation.

Whoever wrote that does not deserve to lose their job um, but they probably should have their wages reduced for at least a short period of time until their headlines or articles that they write are better or more accurate because a 0.5 basis point hike is not going To curb inflation by any means, that's like walking outside seeing your neighbor's, 3 000 square foot house is on fire. You grab your daughter's sippy cup, filled up with water and expect to put the fire out. If you can do that, that means you're a magician, you're, magical or you're an alien, okay, so very unlikely that a point five percent basis point hike is going to curb inflation. Okay.

So with that being said, you know fomc meeting all that good stuff. Today, 0.5 basis, point hype will not fix inflation will not curb inflation. You know that the fed balance sheet is starting to taper a little bit. They said they would start tapering a little bit that we said that in the past.

Do they continue to do it? We'll see markets starting going down federal reserve employees things they are no longer supposed to be participating in the market due to conflict of interest. That happened here right right there when the fed is no longer to participate in the market due to conflict of interest. That was then so, basically, the people that have made this move up are no longer able to participate, and that happened there and now the market is going this way coincidence, probably not okay. That being said, let's move forward the market the other day bounced we hit negative three.

We it is expected whenever the markets tag a negative three, there's, probably going to be a bullish move or a bearish move if you're going up all right so that happens today is the fomc talk, blah blah blah cool cool cool? It doesn't really matter all right when you're looking at this chart. You already know that the control point for the market, bearish or bullish, is right here. 416. 72.

416. 46. That is your control point right now, basically, over under over under all right. You will see yesterday we ran to it rejected, pushed over pulled back and held.

That was the pullback to look for continuation. That way that did not work, we broke down and then we just basically chopped it and now we're up and over pre-market after hours. Holding all right, my max long target for today really was was this. I would not look to be anything more long, biased than 420 to 422 today, meaning if the market ran up into these prices, then thumbs up great job.

That's all we would expect today right now. The first line of support is right here, which is pretty much the pre-market low 416 472 to 416-46. To me i mean i'm not really having many expectations for the day, i'm just expecting some active trading, maybe back down to this level and then a bounce, and then we'll see what happens around that two o'clock. 230 time frame.

Okay, i'm gon na bring up the nasdaq uh on the screen on the right because it will probably change the analysis slightly a bit all right. So when i look at the nasdaq uh, so the nasdaq. So basically this means our support on the market is 416.72. On the spy down to the prices of 318.61 on the nasdaq and those could change a little bit at the open, but for now i would not be opposed to seeing the markets pull back out of the gates all the way down to the 416 price.

So look for a bearish move down into the 416s when you get to the 416s. Arguably 3 1861 of the nasdaq might look for a small little counter dip long trade for the market and at that point we'll see what the market does uh, but for now you're pretty much going to be looking for the first hour of the day. A lot of times the fomc meeting days or these days, where the feds are speaking um and we're dealing with interest rates, we're going to get like a quick uh active like hour of trading, then it gets kind of wonky, slow and then 2 o'clock, 2. 30.

Kicks off and tons of volatility all right for the past, however many i can count or remember um announcements with the fed and interest rates and this and that generally, what happens is there's a lot of volatility. Kicks off computer algorithms come in the market, start doing a bunch of bidding and buying and this and that and the other, and so if you're, a newer participant which you're, probably not. If you're watching my videos, if you're watching my videos, you're, probably a veteran in the market, a seasoned trader been here for a long time, newer traders are usually directed towards like ricky gutierrez types of channels, they're not usually directed here but anyway, so yeah you're, probably Not much newer, uh, so anyways, that being said, fomc meeting, there's usually going to be a spike in whatever spike happens. First is the wrong direction.

So what i mean is this announcement's going to come and things are going to kick off and volatility pumps and the market's going to spike up, or it's going to spike down. Whichever way the market spikes first a day on this news drop is usually the wrong way and then they run it the other way. It's been that case for the past multiple meetings. So, for example, say two o'clock kicks off market jams down.

That means it's probably going to get ramped back up all right and if other way happens, market jams up, it's probably going to get ripped back down all right. That has been the pattern for past year year and a half that i can remember all right, um. So that that's really it we're not calling for any big price targets today, more or less just some, maybe consolidational choppy fluctuational trading around statistical probabilities that exist downwards right now, with max targets being up to 421.. Arguably, i guess if the volatility gets pretty insane today, um, you know this is another good way of explaining it like.

Let's say two o'clock rolls around market slams down. Let's just say it goes down, you know whatever pretty much put it this way. Here's another good way of saying it: sorry if at two o'clock, the market's here at 4, 16 and then obviously two o'clock rolls around they spike it up if they spike it up, there's a good chance, they'll spike it up to about here and then they'll drop. It down right or if they spike it down to here, then will rip up.

So to me it seems, like you know, two o'clock rolls around and you're in the middle of the playing field. Here then, the probabilities are going to jam. Two are going to be 412 411 and up in the 419 420s there. So you know, however, you want to look at it's fine by me.

I don't really have too many expectations for today, um and uh. That's it hope. You guys enjoy the video and i'll see in the next one.