Good morning guys welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in uh, so cpi numbers have come out. Market is not liking. It um i'm pretty much expecting we're going to fall down into these negative two yws. So i think you're gon na see this spy down to about 390 160 here pretty soon somewhere in that area, and once we get into there, that's probably where the markets will put up a little bit of a fight to bounce today, um so really anywhere from This yellow dotted line here down to here is the expectation so pretty much when we were sitting here.

We broke this. This support right at uh, 401. 46. It's unexpected we're gon na go down to this one and then, if we break that, then it'd be this one.

If you break that, then it'd be this one. If you break that, even et cetera, et cetera, et cetera so um so yeah cpi numbers are out. You're pretty much just going to want to trade bearish. Yesterday the market gave us a bearish cross again that finally got some follow through and again you can see the ring consolidation right so you're getting a lot of false crosses as you're in consolidation and uh.

Yesterday we got a bearish cross and the market pretty much maintained under the moving averages nicely and it resulted in a move down and below key price action support. So once the market rolled over yesterday, you took out key price action: support levels you sold down right. So, where are you going to sell down to that's the question so here you have this chart right, so you can see. This is the clear price action support.

This trend is where the statistical trend is at. So what that means is this clear price action support breaks you just target down to the next statistical probability? Okay, and if we were to pull up, say uh, the nasdaq here on the screen to the right really quickly. It's the same story here with the nasdaq right. You can see the nasdaq was trading in this area.

Support support broke the support where to go to its next statistical probability down and through it all right, but when you're trading the market, you use the spy in the nasdaq in combination. So let me go back to the screen here. We'll take some drawings off the to the screen and we'll just kind of restart and go through this again, all right, so um. We need to use both the spy and both the nasdaq okay, and this should become a little more clear, all right and i'm going to draw on the screen.

So it's the spy running up into the negative one yw, which is this negative one yearly weekly trend. Anyway, so it's just a one year weekly trend, all right, so you can see we get up here: resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, okay, mind you, this section of the consolidation. Don't worry about this! Just this! During this little, like section of consolidation, you can see the market actually sustained these levels, so first it's resistance. Okay and then you will see that this line adjusts right.

So really you go from the market running into like a double resistance. You have this level, this level so kind of double resistance, and then we kind of try up there and we get an adjustment on the trend right and then it drops from here to here creating more of a support. So then, you'll see kind of this day and that's why i said: focus on this section all right on this day, you'll see we break up strong and bullish. We pull back, we hold the levels and have a very strong rally off it.

Okay, so that is a creation of potential support off that algorithm. All right, then you fall back down to it, but you still maintain it and then you spike up off it, so that becomes a short intermediate support within the overall consolidation. Okay, so you can see over say one two days: support is created there right push up, then we fall and break under. So what was a support for the past one? Arguably two days breaks down.

Okay, old support becomes new resistance, so let's zoom in so we hold the pullback hold pop breakdown under that is a breakdown. Old support becomes new resistance, so market breaks down and we hold below hold below push away all right, zoom out trend, line right or sideways support. This is where most retail traders are watching and everyone you know like. Oh we've bounced here.

So obviously, if you break that, it's not good okay, cool right, so you can see we break that. Okay, so we've broken that down. But before that happens, you will see bounce bounce under hold below hold below push away. Right now, look to your right and go over here all right.

You will also see that now we're just going to focus on excuse me we're going to focus on just sort of this section of uh the trading action. So now we're going to focus on only like the last pretty much like the last day before we broke down so right here. So this is what we're going to focus on now, like this section, all right, yeah this section and this one over here. Okay, so you will see it is the spy that breaks down.

Its kind of intermediate support then uses that as resistance to kind of create this downward wedge, pushing the markets down towards the trend towards the price action support level. So this is where everyone's looking to see are we going to go above or below blah blah blah blah right support or not? Okay. So when you look to this screen, you will see that it was the nasdaq yesterday that was creating the low of day support right. So you see over here, the spy is bouncing at the low of day it pushes up into resistance.

So the reason the spy hits low of dam balances back up to these trends and then finds resistance is because the nasdaq has statistical probabilities there as support. So the nasdaq probabilities were used bouncing the market up to which then hits the spy's resistance probabilities, which then pushes the market down that creates the wedge, and once we get below the intraday nasdaq support, both markets fall apart. Breaking the key support level over the past couple days and that trend line that everyone's watching and then the market flushes. So where does the market flush too? The market always runs to the next statistic: well, not always, but pretty much.

The next statistical probability on whatever side you're going towards so spy breaks, statistical probability. Here we go down we bounce, because we have statistical probabilities on the nasdaq, so we bounce back up into them again and then we come down and then this is where we break price action, support on the spy, but also at the same time, we're taking out Statistical support on the nasdaq and that's where the market entirely flushes out and you'll see the market just runs directly down on the spy until we get to about 401 444, which is where the next statistical probability was at for the spy. We ran to the probability on the downside for the nasdaq and threw it and again that's because i use the nasdaq in combination with the spy so with this market breaking down. Yes, this level on the nasdaq would have been a target, and this level on the spy would have been a target so between the two it pretty much is this right.

The zone becomes anywhere from here to here. Actually, i should use these drawing tools. Yeah, the target would come anywhere from here sorry here to here on the nasdaq and the target would have been anywhere from here to here on the spy for that breakdown. And the reason is, is because we're using both the nasdaq and the spy in combination together - and you know you can see clearly it is you know just by looking at these two charts we have.

It was the spy that created your intraday resistance. It was the nasdaq that created intraday, support right and once we broke down it was then the uh the spy statistical level that was used as support. So you can see the um. The nasdaq falls through it right, so you you're going into both of them.

Knowing okay markets could pick the kind of bounce around here or they're going to pick this one, so it just creates that zone and that becomes your expected target. Okay um! So today the reality is, i don't think we're gon na get some gigantic rally off today. Um just too soon i mean you had two bad days in a row, but you know going into today. We should probably be looking uh for some sort of bounce now um, then to get bearish into how it all unfolds, i'm not not too positive, but the bottom line here is um, just like we were talking about before.

You see how the spy sold down to here - and it was a zone from here to here and nasdaq. The zone was from here to here right, so look it that broke down too right. So, just like um, sorry, just like that broke down right. This trend here on the spy just broke down this morning right so once we broke that down.

Where do we go? We fell down directly to the next probability levels. You know we kind of went lightly below that and almost touched this one so yeah not to the penny this time, but you can see there was no hesitation from here to till here and that's where the probabilities exist. Okay, so um again, we we kind of just broke down right. That was the breakdown there, and that was this is the target of that breakdown.

So now, there's really not a whole lot more downside action to get for the time being. If we believe that this is just going to kind of be support for the time being, personally, i think we're going to see this market fall down towards the 391s. I figured we would get maybe a little lower in there um. But let me let me zoom out and just take another take another look at this yeah i mean yeah.

I mean it obviously keeps breaking down. Then we'll go down more but um. It's debatable how far we'll go just before a bounce, but we know that uh. We know that this is pretty much your, i think, for now.

That's kind of your downside max target of this current move, we're seeing. I don't think you look for this move to be any further than that without seeing some sort of balance, okay and then maybe we go lower sure. But for now you should pretty much just be looking down to max 391 60s. Okay and you will not see a an extremely bullish pop in the market unless we were actually getting back over this six month trend right here, so it's possible.

We see counter trend bounces back to about here, uh highly doubt that happens. So i i don't see that happening really, but you know weird things have happened, so you know it's just the concept being with this down move breaking. Here we run to the sixth month. We break the sixth month, we're down to the next six months.

You won't get extremely bullish unless you were actually over this right. Otherwise the bears are going to have control. So i think everything right now you'd probably be watching more of a pop to shorts or anything that bounces up you're going to get you're going to sell into still um and then in the in the reason being is because you already kind of know your risk On this meaning, if you were bearish, which you don't want to be bearish and get squeezed all the way to here but um, the trend can't really reverse to being bullish unless the market's back over 401 to 44 for now um and that's just kind of it. So i think you're going to just keep watching this bearish for the time being pop to short - and let me take another look at this chart here before i let you go yeah, i think it's just popped ashore.

Looking for the negative twos here down like the 391 areas, so yeah all right guys, you have a good one and i'll catch you on the next video.