Good morning guys welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning in. I already made this video once a day but uh i just felt like i was rambling on and didn't really have much clear direction. So, hopefully uh we're gon na redo.

It and it'll be much better this time, so first we're gon na start with how the spy traded yesterday then we're going to talk about some things we can expect today i'll try to do it as quick as it can as efficient as i can, and hopefully None of it is confusing, so yesterday we recommended being optimistic to watch a long bounce trade on the market up to prices of 426 on the spy and up to like 326 or 325 on the nasdaq. Arguably okay, so why did we pick the 426? All right? You see this wick here. This is a candle that takes place pre-market or after hours that the public cannot participate in, so 99.999 percent of the population will not be able to do any transacting on that candle, even though it happens. So we call that a mother candle or a ghost with candle when that happens usually the same day next day or a couple days there and after you will see the markets on that markets retrace to that price.

So you can see how we had a mother candle here and then we start the day down, but by the end of the day we go back up and we clear that price and touch it. That's what we're talking about? Okay, so the reason for picking the 426 as a long target yesterday is because we had a ghost with candle that took place at 425.72, so pretty much 426. Okay. At the same time, pre-market we had statistical probability levels that were lined up right around that price point.

Okay. Now i want to talk to you about the daily and weekly levels on statistical probabilities. So if you guys are on the same system, which i hope you do, you will see that when the market opens weeklies and daily levels readjust, so the reason you see this big down drop like that and then run sideways is because these level here you can See has a w that stands for weekly and there's another one here, it's a daily, but the thing is, is a daily and a weekly chart don't update until the market opens. So this is where the daily and the weekly levels were yesterday.

Market closes fully. We go through the pre-market trading session and then the market reopens the levels recalibrate and drop to here. So the weekly and dailies drop to here and that's the reason why you had resistance here all morning until afternoon when we broke out. Okay, so just know that whenever you see like these squiggly down drops or up pushes and then horizontal sideways, it's because the system is recalibrating the statistical probable trend for the day, and it can't do them until the market opens okay.

So, since that's the case, this is why it goes down, creates a sideways move and that's why you had resistance here all morning until you broke out okay, so that's why we picked those price targets. That's why he had most of resistance where he had it yesterday. So now, moving into today for the spine, all right, so here's for one top, that's a breakdown and that's a lower high, all right so think about it. If you've ever taken, you know the basics of trading, it would be.

Markets are in an uptrend when they make higher highs and higher lows. Higher highs, higher lows and a downtrend does not start until you have a uh, a lower low and a lower high, lower low, lower high, and you have to break the previous swing low in the uptrend. Okay, so we'll redo. That uptrend is higher high higher low higher high higher low higher high higher low higher high high or low downtrend is a lower high break of a previous swing low or it is a break of a previous swing low and a lower high.

But all things said and done: you need a new low of the previous uptrend and a lower high to say you're in a downtrend. So if we think about it, you are uptrending up up up up up up top. That was the previous support. Slash previous support, which means that's the higher low you break it, and then you bounce and you create a lower high downtrend right.

So if you think about it, the market does not create the lower high here off of this right close, but it creates it off of this. So that's why i trade, based on statistical probabilities more than i do necessarily true price action, because if you can see here, markets went up, they touched the probability and upside we break on the downside. So this was a breakout to the upside over the green line. Hit resistance come back to retest the green line break below.

So that's a breakout down. This is a counter trend. Bounce back to now resistance. Now we're down trending.

Okay, and now you will see we have a downtrending motion: lower low, lower high lower low lower high. Well, that's a lower low, lower high lower low, even high, lower low, so we're down trending okay. So what we would say to ourselves is there's no way that we're getting along on this day for a breakout, unless you were over this price point right here. Okay, so unless you get over that you're not long for a breakout and if that long ended up working, you would not look anything higher than the 429 for the time being.

So if you broke out of here, your most likely probable outcome would be a move from 427.68 to 429.57. Okay, because you would just go from probability level to probability level all right now. Looking at the downside, remember remember: i just said: if you broke out here, you would go from probability to probability all right, reverse that thought process. So here we broke down a probability retested the breakdown moved away from it and where's the next probability right here.

So from probability to probability, the same thing i was talking about breaking here going to here is the same thing that happened here. We broke this retested and now we're moving here all right. So that's how the market works. It moves in deviations.

It moves in probabilities. That's that's! That's just what it does all right. So now what i want to do is i want to take a look at the long term chart here for a bit all right. So now we're looking at the long term chart all right what i believe we're going to so so, when i look at this chart right when i think about this, and i think about the way that it looks, we know that the market moves in probabilities, which Means once one level breaks, we typically go to the next and if this one breaks, then we go to the next right.

So that's why you see how the market like here when we break this, we run to that gray. One right we try to go over. We can't we break that fall back down to the yellow break below. Now we go to the gray break below we go to the green, and then we stop at the green we break up where we go the gray, so we just did a this.

This move right here from here to here is a 50 retracement of this deviation break. So if you were to measure from here to here well from sorry from here to here, this is the halfway marker right. So if like, for example, you i mean like, if you just drew a fibonacci, not that i'm going to do this perfectly, but i'm just the concept would be if you just drew one like from there to there all right, where's, the 50 retracement mark right there. Okay, so you know many would actually probably do it like this, because if this is a bearish move down, it would be like this sorry zoom out there all right.

So sorry, i'm getting a little further than i had should be. So if any of you guys know anything about fibonacci, then this will make sense to you right. So this is a halfway marker, so this is the most recent breakdown. This is arguably a breakdown too, but, like i said, the markets move in deviations.

This is a deviation. This is a deviation. This is not that's just a halfway marker all right, so the concept would be is when something truly breaks down, they're going to go from deviation to deviation, and then there can be a bounce in there and a lot of times. It will be back to the halfway marker right, so if you take that thought process and you can even use fibonacci for your confirmation, if you may so, if you do a fibonacci from don't even worry about where the candles are disregard, the candles, if you just Do a fibonacci retracement from the green line to the yellow? Okay! Just do that the green line to the yellow here! Oh, if we're doing so that would be bottom, so we do top realistically but anyway.

So if we do it like that, okay think about it. Where is your now look at where your 161 target would be? So if you're not familiar with fibonacci, when you do a fibonacci retracement and it works, and it breaks out whether it be down or up the market will target the 161 retracement? Look where the 161 retracement ends up being just about the blue line. So is it a coincidence, or is it ironic that i tell you the markets move in deviations and then, when we put a fibonacci retracement on it, it just so happens that the 161 retracement ends up being the next deviation level down. So if the market would break the green, where would it go next deviation down, which arguably is the 161 fibonacci retracement? Okay, so um anyways? What are we looking at for today? Sorry that went a little further than it probably needed to, but i'm just having fun today so anyways.

What are we looking at today? Well, this is a reversal candle, so we're gon na dive into the five day five minute here, so i mean pretty much the way i put it is uh, there's no way you could convince me being long at all unless we were actually over 4. 27. 68. Let me take a look at the nasdaq too.

That'll probably help me get a gauge on things, all right, yeah, so pretty much. We know where the resistance is at around the pre-market level. So unless the spy clears 427.68 we're not long biased, unless the market really gets over 329.62, we can't be long by so probably going to look for you know, maybe even a bearish move back down today. That might be the play we already retested, though it's not like, we haven't retested yeah, i mean honestly today.

I don't really have a good gauge on the market, because we did a bounce yesterday, we've kind of already retested previous levels. So what i mean is this is a break out. We retested almost here when we retested here so does the market really want to go and retest it again? We had ghostwicks down interesting, okay yeah. So now, when i'm looking at the nasdaq, i see that we have ghostwicks here.

You can see we had ghostwix after hours to here in here. So, if we're going to go for a same-day retest, we could therefore maybe expect we're going to see the markets on the nasdaq trade back down to the 325s, arguably as low as the 324s. So i think we're going to be staying on a bare move today or we'll be optimistic that the move is bearish now remember just because we get mother candles and ghost wicks doesn't mean we have to retest today could be a couple days, but for now i Think i'm going to stay kind of more in the bearish direction and the reason i'm going to stay in the bearish direction too, is because we're not out of a downtrend and i'll show you what i mean so we're looking at this moving average system here. We're not out of a downtrend okay.

This is a short term uptrend. So when this blue line crosses the red, that's when the market's starting an uptrend and it's a trading uptrend, it doesn't mean it's up trending for four years. Five years is a trading perspective. Uptrend! Okay, so, and - and let me go back a little bit - might help you um, oh, why did it get all weird? Oh because i'm on the wrong one here we go.

So let me go back some here. Oh, that is about. As far as i can go back or well, i should be able to do maybe like a 20 day or 30 day, 30 minute. Okay, so looking at this 30 day, 30 minute you'll see that the last time we had that cross right.

So look at the blue crosses the red. How long were we in an uptrend for right? I mean the market. Was you know one two at like 11 12 days up trending right and you're, not in a downtrend until the market the blue crosses below. So the blue crosses below here we get a fake cross here, but ultimately we went, the market goes, bearish stays below and it stayed below and stayed bearish that whole entire time until you actually got across here.

Okay and now we crossed again so for me, i'm not extremely long biased until this blue line were to cross that red line all right. That's when i would start saying: okay, we're more, maybe on like a true bounce or a breakout day, so think about it. Blue crosses red goes on a rally: blue crosses red down, we go bearish blue crosses red up, we're bullish for like two days, blue cross is red down. We've been bearish for two days now we have a bounce, since the blue is not over the red.

This bounce should be deemed and treated as a counter trend, long bounce expected to get sold back into until the day you wake up, and you see the blue is over the red and then your mental aspect should shift from no longer a counter trend bounce to Be sold into but optimistically a dip by long opportunity, starting and remember it's a trading. Therefore it could stay in an uptrend for 10 days 20 days only two days. That's you, as a trader having to hone in on your skills to depict how long the trend might be and if it's still healthy and whatnot. So now that you know exactly what i'm looking at there.

You know that i am really just counter trend, long bias. Okay, counter trend, long bias until we get that true cross, so everything that this market goes up, i would be willing to sell into this whole bounce i'll, be willing to trade up and sell into until we get that cross, so something i'm even watching too. I guess you could say today is all right: if, if we don't really trade bearish today and the market does continue to bounce, then wherever this 50 moving averages at when the market opens, that's also probably going to be a good low risk short level. So what we're looking at here is an open, high, low, close charting system, so this has no pre market no after hours data.

So this is open. High low closed charting all right, so um yeah no pre-market no after hours all right, so this chart doesn't update till the open, and this is a this is usually usually be looking at this on a 10 day, 30 minutes. So it's a 10 day 30 minute chart. So when the market opens, these will readjust.

So wherever this sma line's at when the market opens, will be a low risk, probably a short zone area that i would be watching as well. So if we do end up breaking up the run continues into today that 50 sma is going to be a level that'll be looking to be bearish around. So let's look at where that price point is now so that price point is at 435 all right. So right now the sma is like right about there, 435 and the market hasn't opened yet so that sma could recalibrate and come down closer to 332 or 434 somewhere in that area.

Okay, so, as we said before, we have ghost wicks down here, so we could very well see markets even just reverse and trade poorly back down on the day, but for one we cannot really be long, biased the market until we're getting clearance above the 426.75 and At that point, then you're just going to be targeting back up to the pre-market highs and the 429.57. Arguably all the way to that sma, which is up in the 435s, all right, um and uh yeah. I think we've covered enough on that uh, so you guys have a great rest of your day and i'll see you guys on the next video take care.