Morning guys welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning in with me me today happy monday. Hopefully you guys had a good weekend. There's quite a that we have to cover in this video.

So um probably going to be a little bit longer than your typical video. So we're going to jump right into that and we'll get rocket and rolling and maybe it ends up being quicker than i was thinking but we're going to start here this is the moving average chart system um that i always present to you guys so we have a lot of not a couple things to talk about here all right so moving average system. If you're new to the channel. This is a 10 simple moving average this is a 50 simple moving average and the chart has no pre market and no after hours data.

And it's being watched on a 10 day 30 minute interval. If you do everything i just said and you look at it on the spy. It will look exactly the same now the blue crossed over the red this day so on that day when that cross happened our youtube videos have recommended watching the markets long bias. So this day was long biased this day this day this day this day and this day even on the red days.

We said watch long bias and that's because the trend is up until the blue crosses. The red and then once that happens i'll say okay watch bearish even on the days. We're going up until we get the cross back to the bull side so that being said cross for the long side. Happened here.

We have not had a bearish cross since therefore all these pullbacks have been been getting bottom all right so until the blue crosses down below the red. We won't be swing bare all right the other thing is in order for the blue to cross below. The red of course. The price action has to go down now before the blue would cross the red as the price action goes down the price will hit the 50 sma before the blue cross.

The red. So many times your 50 sma or the red moving average will be a support okay. It being a support has nothing to do with them crossing or not crossing. The concept is is as something is selling off you might be going oh.

This doesn't look good. It's going down. But every time. It's going down into the 50 sma.

It's a dip buy until a it doesn't work and b. You get a bearish cross so again there's the bullish cross right right there is where the momentum shift happens pop up following day sell down basically to that same level that created the cross. But also is the 50 sma. Following day gap up long move consolidate top out pull back 50 sma next.

You know today. We've gapped up again. So until the price actually breaks and sustains below that 50 sma red moving average. You're generally watching that price point as a dip buy okay so going forward right.

We know we're long buys till. We get across okay last week. We had talked about the s p 500. Going to long term statistical means long term.

Statistical means are these white dotted lines. Here these white dotted lines. You see on the spy. Those are the same thing as these white dotted lines here on the screen to the right.

This is the nasdaq now you could be saying. Why are they in a different price location well they are because they just are that's the way. It is okay. But regardless of where they are and this is the way it is blah blah blah.

Anyways. Last week. The nasdaq broke the long term statistical means that was that right there that was the first statistical mean breakout. Push up to the second one which is just above creating a resistance pull back re test the previous one which is a breakout now support go back to the one above.

Which is resistance until it gets above here and then it kind of holds and then we break up and away from it this is a six month trend. So nasdaq pops to a six month. What we call in this case uh. A plus well i'll be a negative two anyways doesn't matter anyway you get to the six month trend.

Here and uh pull back all right and this pullback goes back down to the statistical means as a re test of the support okay so until you get the bearish cross. You're not swing short. So we'll just continue watching things long bias. Okay and we know that we don't have a breakdown in the market.

Until the nasdaq goes below the price of 300. Okay. Because 300 is the long term statistical mean pull back bounce right pull up here bounce go up then pull back and bounce. So this is where the support is if you were to look at the s p.

500. You would just see it as levels that the market is bouncing. Whereas. If you look at the nasdaq.

You know that it's the long term statistical mean. Which is creating the support so as a visual representation. You can clearly see where the support is at whereas if you look at the spy. You could say well maybe.

It's this well maybe. It's this low well maybe. It's this low well maybe. It's the split demand of each one of those lows.

Okay and if we look at the nasdaq. We just know it's the long term statistical mean overall. That is the zone of importance. Which is from there to there okay so until you're below.

That you're not going to get like a breakdown move you can see a pullback like you did here. But not going to be a breakdown. Okay. So you know where the support's at that's where it supports that 300 on the nasdaq currently all right and last week.

We went over this but some of you may not remember so we'll do it uh again so when we look at just this level. Here this is a weekly statistical. Probability each week. It's calculating and re updating by about three dollars.

So if that trend continues. So this one here was 410 down to 406 so that was about four dollars. Okay and then this one here was from 406 down to about 403. So it was three dollars all right.

But since then the the price has gone up so this shouldn't calibrate down as much because. This is calibrating um. The more the harsher. The calibration down like this one was four.

Then this one was three is because this trend was more predominantly down a couple weeks ago. Now. The trend is kind of up therefore. This is starting to calibrate um less uh harsh.

If you may to the downside. It's not as heavy weighted as heavy because we're starting to turn upwards so instead of this calibrating to three this week. It'll probably calibrate down maybe 250. So we can expect that when the market opens.

This white dotted line will no longer be priced at 40306. It will probably readjust down anywhere from three dollars to 250. If it adjusts down three bucks. That's going to put it right at 400 which means that last week friday right is that top that was put in will basically be where that new statistical probability ends up being once the market opens this week and recalibrates down it'll probably look something like that which means anywhere in the 400 to 401 is gonna be the new breakout.

Okay so um yeah pretty much you're pretty much. Watching 400. Which was last week's uh friday's previous high to 401 and and that's just where the long term statistical levels at so you can't go much higher in the market till. You clear that then once we clear that then we start opening.

The doors for a plus. One deviation move. Which would be um um. Oh.

I didn't even realize. We're. Plus. Two on standard.

Error. Yeah. Anyway so so a break of the long term statistical. Mean.

Then opens up the door for the discussions of moves to 4 12. 4. 15. 4.

20. Okay. So um yeah. With that being said.

We're. Just. Just. Still.

Watching. Things long bias. Um. And once we you know again.

If the long term. Mean breaks out. We go from 400s to uh 410s for 20s then that's probably where we're going to see in my opinion a gigantic leg down in the market. So um.

You guys know that i've been overall analysis and and judgment and idea is been from january february of uh 2022 to be bearish to the price of 364 dollars on the s p 500 and then to look for a dead cat rally on the s p. 500. After the price has reached 364 and then once the deadcat rally from 364 is done you will see a new lag in the bear market. That will be extended for some period of time so taking a step back.

I will go to a yearly chart here. So um. The idea was since uh january right right around like this time frame. We first got our nice rollover.

The idea was to be bearish until here and then to look for a dead cat rally which i believe goes to about there and then you look for a new extended bear market leg and of course. It's not gonna look exactly like that. But um that's the general basis of what i thought we would uh. We would have so time will tell.

But there is something else i want to mention before i go all right if you're newer. You probably won't get this very much. But for those of you that you know kind of been at this for some time you guys know i run a standard error standard deviation combo system um and that means that the price of 426 right. Now is plus three deviations uh.

That's the sixth month. Though so let me rephrase that uh at 426 would be the six month plus three deviation um level and that's priced at 426. But on a day to day. Basis that's been.

Recalibrating um that's 427 call 42750 to 427 or 42680. So that's 70. So it's calibrating about 70 cents a day down. So this plus three level if it recalibrates 70 cents a day for the next week.

Okay we could easily be seeing this down another couple dollars a share so when my original thought of a 418 420 being a top. It actually sounds even better knowing that if it took a week for us to even get towards 420 that this plus. Three deviation level would calibrate down closer to that price owner even going into next week. Creating a bigger resistance um.

The other thing that makes me like that plus uh plus. Three six months. What am i saying yeah. Plus.

Three deviations six months run at the 426. The other reason. I like that and think that could be used as a good resistance is because one it's the plus three deviation level again. It's only a six month level which generally i don't see as strong as weekly levels.

But the other side of that coin. I would say is the reason i find it actually going to be very important this time around is because when you consider when this move started this move started back in january. You know january 4th january 5th. We broke down then we started going down.

But i mean if you were to go from like you know just the beginning of the year january till. Now it's been seven months so a half of a year. Basically we've been in a downtrend half of every year is six months so for the past six months seven months. The stock market's been downtrending so literally the six month trend is down okay therefore when looking back at this chart here five day five minute when looking back at this chart.

And i see that the six month trend plus. Three deviation is going to exist somewhere around the 420s mark by the time. We get there. And i'd already kind of guesstimated that to be the zone.

We would pull back in it seems like stars could be aligning pretty well so i'm going to kind of pick that 418 420 is a be all end all area that you definitely don't want to belong in and you would start really considering being more bearish so with that being said um. I'll see you guys on the next video take care.