Good morning guys welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning in with me, so getting ready to cover the market. First things. First i'll pull this screen down from here, so uh we brought up this chart.

Yesterday we had talked about the bullish cross, the um price retesting, the 50 sma bouncing in after yesterday's trading session. We did another retest of that 50 sma moving average. So again, just markets were down and markets gapped up, creating bullish cross. This becomes support, retest retest and then today we have gapped up and broke out of that and then ultimately, that's kind of created that visual picture of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

So right there - and today we kind of broke up all right so going into this morning now, looking at some different charts, we're going to take a look at a five-day five-minute chart here. Okay, so on this five-day five-minute chart um. It gives a gives a pretty clear picture right so yesterday, afternoon, into after hours, market rallied over the negative two which then we broke up and trended out to the next statistical probability this morning. Okay, so you don't have a new bullish breakout per se until you get over the price of uh 381.29, so that price right there, that's 381.20, so until you're over that there's no new breakout and that can update going into the open.

And let me show you what i mean yesterday. We had talked and said that once the market on the spy clears this price, which i think was like 380 230, then that's when you can have more of a trending run because there's none of those lines there, except for this one right there. But the question the the idea is that you know when you're looking at this down here, there's a line there line there line there there there there right so a lot of congestion, but once you're over this, it's more clear skies now, yesterday the price of that Line was at 380 230. going into the open the level had readjusted to this price, and that's why we're here this morning? Okay, if that makes sense yesterday it was here we found resistance here or sorry that was um.

It was two days ago. Excuse me uh. So yesterday we're here previous day we were here: okay, so pre-market. Yesterday, i'm talking about the price being right here, going into the open it adjusted to here.

So again you can see resistance resistance. We pop up to here. Okay, so once you get over this level, which is like 60s call it that's where the market has um clear skies to the upside all right, so i'm going to take us to like a 20 day one hour chart that should help a little bit all right. So we go to this 20 day.

One hour chart all right. You can see this is the green down trending zone right there. Well, it's not a good line, but like right there, that's it right, and so we've been trying to maintain below go to the blue blue's, really oversold gap up back into the green holding supports in the green full flag in the green right there a little one Push upwards right now we're on the upper side of the green. If we can break out this, whether it be the day next couple days or just in general, if we can clear that, that's where we open up the the door and the discussion for a run from this, like call it 382 area, 380s 382 areas to 387.66.

That line and then into the 393 is arguably 400. So pretty much once you clear, oh, i want to go back to a line. You know once you clear pretty much that trend, that's where you open up the door for the markets to trend into a move like that, okay, so um. Hopefully, we can see that i would love to see the market go through a relief rally, as we've been talking about so we'll see if we get it.

But of course we got to get through that previous high there, which is just this statistical probability. Yeah 3d. 146.: okay, going over to the spy, probably not going to talk about kind of the whole swing side of it, because there's really really no need. But now we'll look at the five day.

Five minute charts go through kind of the intraday view here. So i'm going to start with there's no breakout long till you get over 3d 129 this morning. That's where the statistical probability is so until you're over that there's really no long breakout. Okay, support levels are going to be down at 376.93, so it's called 377 on the spy to 378 20..

So this is your support area today, right about there, okay, and when you look at the nasdaq, the nasdaq doesn't have any uh statistical probabilities until here. So pretty much you have a ghost wick on the spy to here, so you could very well see a flush to 285. Today you don't have any statistical probability support on the nasdaq till 2 283.85 and your support zone for the spy is from 378.20 into. Let's just call it 376., you don't have a breakout on the upside till you're over 381.29.

You don't have a breakdown on the downside until you're below 370, 650s and 28385s on the nasdaq. So anything that happens regarding price action trading from say the spy 380 120 to 377 is just in between price action. With no true breakout, you could have a price action pattern, break out, move within this zone, but there's no statistical probability break up or down till you're, either over that or below that okay, but you can have patterns and whatnot. You know have these little break place and in between that zone, so uh for what it's worth, that's pretty much how the market's set up today.

I still want to keep seeing things long bias again. We will not be swing short until this blue crosses below that red. Everything else is going to be dipped by a long until then, you can see bearish moves happen, sure, but we're not going to be swinging short until that happens, or probably until we see the spy closer to prices of this negative one area in this negative one Area which is just the yellow lines, that's where i'd be more optimistic, i'm trying to like predict a top to shorten, maybe or around the long term. Uh statistical means if they can get there, which is all the way into 415s, but that seems a little much um.

So the way it sits right now is the long move from this bottom has happened. It was from here to there that was it. Okay, we just did that. Okay, the next new long move, would be a move over the statistical probability to push us into the next statistical zone, which is you know anywhere from 387.

That's the sixth month, but i believe we would just blow through that and go to uh the year release, which puts us at about 394 for now, which can change by tomorrow, um well tomorrow, saturday, so uh but yeah i mean that's pretty much the way it Sits, i think, what we're gon na end up, seeing today, i think we're gon na see um. I think i think the market's gon na sell down. Actually, i i don't think we're gon na break out and run today. I think the market is going to sell this move down again, all right, so whether it be the sellers from this top or just whatever.

I think the markets aren't going to break out today. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to roll down and maybe even retest this support, and if the markets and the bulls are strong enough to hold off the bears one more time then going into next week. We could see the rally higher, but i don't suspect it to be today.

I think today is going to be a bearish kind of down. Maybe a late day. Bounce hold something like that, but i don't expect some long breakout day, but if it happens it happens. Awesome and you should know whether whether or not it's breaking out pretty soon um, because if it's going to it's, it's usually going to go with a lot of heavy volume and, and you can kind of feel that vibe for the day.

So if that doesn't you know pretty much instantly happened, it's probably going to be a chop, slow, roll over down friday, and hopefully momentum builds into to next week. So that's a video for today. I hope you guys enjoy it. Everybody take care and i'll catch.

You on the next one.