's going on guys welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you guys tuning in with with me today uh. We got a decent amount to cover so i'll try get through that pretty quickly uh didn't get a video online. Yesterday had to leave really early in the morning and go work with my property.

So i was out doing that all day yesterday. But i'll be here today so looking at the market from the moving average system. We would say that we have had a bearish cross all right so it was it was monday tuesday. We're into wednesday so on monday.

So friday had a sell off so this is friday's sell off day then going into monday. We had more of like a consolidation day. But that consolidation day allowed for a bearish cross to happen where we kind of flirted around a little bit. But ultimately the moving average across below the red into the end of the day.

We finally sold off which at that point you could say probably has confirmed this bearish move a bit the bounce. Afternoon tuesday back up to the red 50. Sma was the retest of the trend change. So that's a good short entry.

The following day. We gap down and then we trend down and have a total of a where are we at uh 700. There was a 700 point down swing from the re test the 50 sma after the bearish cross or cross re test. And 700 point swing down so um going into.

Today or well just in general sorry in general. You won't be back to swing long uh in the immediate until the blue crosses. The red so right now uh the trend is down doesn't mean that it can't go back up sure. But for now you'd be um slightly yeah swing bearish.

But short bias overall until those moving averages cross back up again. So the best way of saying is about this time tuesday. The moving averages gave the first bearish cross here the market sold off more or less confirming some of that cross. This was the retest of the breakdown on tuesday and then this is that swing move to the downside that follows from the cross.

Which is 700 points. That's a terrible 700. Um. And then we bounce back up today all right now this price point right.

Here isn't on a statistical probability. This morning um. We can get that in a sec. But again if we bring down the moving average system right and we go.

Where's the 50 symbol moving average right there and we'll go back. We will see that after hours in pre market. We have trended and traded back to the 50 sma. So for now.

There's really not much more of a long play until you get over the 394 58. And sustain over that otherwise. I think we could see a bearish move to start the day um. Which you would then look at the nasdaq's price and look for the zero mean line which is 29642 so i think that we could see a mooring flush back down to 29642.

So probably the first morning kind of play i'll go for the swing move on the bare side back down towards uh. 29642. And based on where let's see that's 2632. Yeah.

Honestly based on where the 10 sma is on the um spy. That would all be all the way down at 391. So yeah for now just going into the morning probably going to start with looking at a bearish move for the nasdaq down. 29642.

Also remember the recalibration of the daily mean on the nasdaq right now. It's 301. It's called 30120. Just 300.

And well. It's called 340. So 30120 340. 60.

80. So. This should recalibrate down. About 80 cents.

From. Here. Today so 300 to call. 340 when i say 80.

So. 29940. Which would be right about there almost close enough all right so. If we just automatically readjust.

The statistical probability. Today for the weekly level or the. Daily mean it would come out to 29940. Which would make this the new probability line and you can see after hours.

We break up trend to about there hold right here this morning and down. And when the market opens recalibrates. This line's going to go like this and end up right. There hence.

Why we stopped there pre market. So that's how you actually start to understand where pre market moves can go to or where pre market highs and pre market lows are pre market lows and pre market highs are set in by usually statistical probabilities um. So you know when you're a new trader actually i remember i remember i first started trading a long time ago. A lot of wins a lot of losses a lot of ups and downs throughout that whole time period and ongoing um.

But i mean if i really were to think back to the first time. I even probably looked at a stock chart or even like that first let's just call. It first six months. Let's say.

The first six months. I opened up and looked at stock charts and started dabbling with scanners and stocks and drawing trend lines and i mean just to think how far and how long ago that was and the things that i know now and just the way that i think of the market and look at the market. I mean it's so astronomically different than what i even thought. It was supposed to be about when i first started so just funny thinking about first six months of trading right you have no you have no idea.

What the hell is going on on the planet you may think you do. But you don't right you know even when you think you got something you're so far off not even funny. But it's just funny right so i mean what am i 20. Damn almost 29 anyways so almost 29 and uh.

I started basically in my early 20s you could say basically 20 and uh so nine years ongoing and um. It took me basically seven years to eight years before i knew exactly how pre market high's lows. Were were were made or how the market makers would decide what price points a a pre market high would be or a pre market low would be or or how far could we expect something to to gap down overnight right are we going to gap up and if we're going to gap up how far can we gap up right those things you start to see when using uh statistical probabilities right. So like for example what i mean by that is last night when the market closed.

Let's say you're watching the market. It's right here. You know that this is a statistical probability. This is a probability.

And this is a probability okay ensure they can move a little bit. But from the basic foundation of it that's a probability this is the probability this probability all right so for one. We already visually have one well that's a two well i kind of went for that like one that looked like that. But it kind of looked more like a two and three so there are three points.

That our eyes can already be focused on by us just saying since we know their probabilities. We already know there's a good chance that the price action will touch any one of those three points. Okay. So that's kind of how your brain would first like think about it maybe and then from there right.

If the price was trading right here right. We also know that any time a probability line breaks. That's in general. You know as simply as you could put it is that's a breakout of that line and you can look for trades in the breakup.

Right and so when we break out you can look for trades in that direction. And then right so if this is the three points you're looking at you break this line. You know that okay the next probability up is here and since you also know that these lines recalibrate currently downwards. Then you can also say okay if we break out here.

How far should we go well. We could either run up to this level or where this level should be by tomorrow morning. If we don't do it right away. And so we break out after hours.

We run not all the way to here and we hesitate okay and if we start to hesitate here just in general right if you break out you go okay. This isn't going to move to this line till tomorrow. Well if it recalibrates down 80 cents. That means.

It's going to be right here so then after hours you see it run. All the way pretty much that point you realize you just accomplished um. The expected move within that market okay so when people are like well. How do you gauge a move how do you base risk right and if i was perfect at doing all this i'd be like a trillionaire already.

But i'm not right um. But you know maybe this will help you view it a different way. But if you're considering like a trade and a play. And what have you the way.

I would see it is if we were like okay we breaking or breaking out here. Okay. I would say to myself how far could it go. It can go up as far as the next statistical probability up.

Because a new breakout. Only happens when you break this one then right so that's a breakout. None of this is any there's no breakout. There's no breakdown in here.

None of that is a breakout or breakdown. Any of that the next breakdown is when this market goes below that and the next breakout is when this market goes above this. Which is really pretty much the pre market high okay and so when we break out here. We'd say how far could it go the next probability up which that that case was 338 but if we automatically calibrated.

Down it's going to come out that 29940 or whatever. I said okay. And so um yeah. Yeah.

That's oh yeah. So what i was saying is if you were to get in the breakout and you run. It all the way up to here and sell within that moment in time or this current market that that was the move right so you're like how far can it go it could go higher than that but currently you have a breakout here the next probability is here so if you're thinking about trades and short term trading and market volatility environment. This is your market from here to here.

And that's it that's your market. And then a new market begins above here because that one is a probability. There's no new breakout till. You get above here and no new breakout till.

You go below here so your only market your trading your market environment is from this line to that line that's the football field that's the playing field okay and right now you're you're in right now you're in michigan right at the lion stadium playing football. Okay and the game doesn't change or your opponent doesn't change until you break from michigan and move down to ohio. Now you're playing the bangles right or until you you move over here and now you break out the upside and now you're in miami. You're playing the floor of dolphins and now you're on a new playing field.

Okay. Now what do those playing fields look like they look pretty much exactly the same as the previous one. But they could be a little different see this playing field goes from this white line to this green. Line which is from 30106 to 30649.

Whereas. This one was only from what's this called 301 to 296. So this one's a little bigger all right and this one goes from here. All the way down to there etc.

Etc. Um. So that that's basically the concept. There um.

So as we said before right now you got a bearish cross um. I am not extremely bearish. Though with this cross because to me. I think.

This is just a pullback right and so there's been a pullback and because of that pullback. We've seen a bearish cross on the system. Which for short term trading again. If you're using this for short term trading.

You could have took the rejection on the 50 sma and rolled this down 700 points. And closed. And i've been best case scenario. So far all right um.

But looking back at this screen. Okay. Remember we talked about the market reverting back to the long term statistical. Mean.

And that's pretty much what what has happened i think if you look at any of the stocks that we talked about about a week ago. They've all hit the mean all right so look at apple apples. So here's the example right look at the spy look where the spy is at okay. It ran from negative three on the downside to the mean so so.

The market is back to its normal downtrend that's it right. This is the statistical average and we're back to that when the spy is back to its statistical average. It usually means that all of the major market cap players within the market have generally done the very same move. So now we'll run through apple.

And you just need to visually look at the chart look. Where it's at it's coming off the mean. The white line. Okay.

Let's go look at um amd go to chips off. The white line. Nvidia. Almost to the white line close.

Not quite uh did we do tesla already i don't know if we did tesla. But maybe we didn't i think i did well if not tesla to the mean um. What about i haven't seen meta. In a.

While. Let's see. What she's been doing meta actually has been over the mean for a little bit. And now.

It's actually reverting back down um. But still the concept is is that generally speaking stocks are tied to the overall direction of the mark closely. So we've seen the spy. Do a mean reversion um.

This was basically what i expected to happen when we hit 364. We had 364 i expected this once this started happening i started looking back at charts of the dot com. Bubble. And a little bit of 2008 and making a new estimate and that was in the event.

We can actually get over the mean. We should see an attempt of 4 15. 4. 18 to 420 and this is where i would definitely not there's no way on earth that would be anything more long biased than that price in the market.

So so to me from the 364 bottom to here that was expected okay. This is a maybe for me right. This is this was expected so most of the long move that i was looking for off the bottom of 364 is already done already happened completed washing my hands boom. All right now it's a matter of whether or not my research of the dot com bubble.

In 2008 scenarios comes true and that is a second rally off this move push that takes us to attempt the plus. One deviation zone. Okay. So this is the mean the normal average trend of the market as we're going down to break over this would be breaking over the downtrend that we've been in in trying to establish um acceptance above the mean okay whether or not or not that happens.

A different story. I don't think it does but breaking this would give us a potential shot into the plus. One deviation zone. Which exists from 418 to 427 also remember the market's down trending.

So by next week. This line will be 422 14. This will be down another four box of 418. We're going to take this down to 414 right.

So let's go to 414 and this one up. Here is going to go to 423 yeah. So 423 to 418 going into next week's levels. So i've said a lot of stuff today.

But pretty much what it all means is we're still in a downtrend overall in the market or in a short term. Upfront rallying off the 364 expected bottom the rally from the 364 expected bottom has done majority of its move in my opinion or maybe. Majority of the move is a bad way of saying. It maybe a better way of saying.

It is it's done all of the easiest expected move that i thought we would see all right so for me here to here was what i expected that happened pretty swiftly now whether or not we get the rest of it and how easily that comes. I don't actually know right so um with that being said. This is kind of uh. The golden area for me to enter a short play for a new leg in the market.

Right here is just too soon especially if i was doing options or something like that uh if i was doing uh shares. I think you're short here. But i think your risk would be you know from where 391 all the way to 418 so that's nine. I mean.

It's basically 30 points. So you could have almost 30 dollar risk right now um. So to me that's kind of like meh. You know maybe if you dabbled like something very small to the point.

Where you have no problem averaging up if it went higher than sure but so for now. I think we're in a situation. Where we're we got to get through this. Week you get through this 075 basis point hike and then a couple of these earnings plays and that can be a determining factor whether or not we do this push or we end up rolling over here.

But my gut tells me there's still a little more upside before the market would roll over once again. We'll see time will tell. But one thing is for certain is whether or not we go down right. Now or whether or not we do go up to the 418 or 415 420 area that i was also thinking of or whether or not we only go to 403 and then we stall out for a week and then we roll over right don't know everything or how it all unfolds.

But one thing's for certain is whether or not we think. It's going to go up this way another ten dollars or we're going to start going down this way another fifteen dollars in the short term whenever the blue crosses the red. You know you're probably going to see bullish moves in the immediate. And whenever the blue crosses below the red.

It's a good good chance you're going to see bearish move in the immediate. So. When you have this bearish cross. You know from this moment on right now we're probably not going to go up so even if we thought it would go another ten dollars.

This way. We currently have this cross that means within the immediate time. I'll draw a little clock. There right within the immediate time.

We're not going to be going up we're probably going to trade down okay and then next week. If we see this red moving average like this and we cross the blue side or the blue cross up over the red next week. Or something like that there's a good chance that we're breaking this short term downtrend in trying to trend. And maybe break up and continue right and then we can hop on the long side.

So the moving average system will allow you to eliminate extreme bias. Right and allow you to play the short term moves. Within the market and still have the idea that it's going to go up another 10 bucks right so that's a long video. We talked a lot i hope that helps hope you guys learn a little bit new um.

So i will see you guys in the next video. And before i go right now. I'm still overall long biased to market. There was a short term bearish trend.

Um. So my idea was to first watch the market for a bearish. Pullback and if we don't get one and then we're then i think the markets are going to try to do some sort of interesting breakup move today. So that's actually something i forgot to talk about okay really quickly.

I got to give you potential targets here on the day. So you see this six month trend on the spy. And it's calibrating down right now it's calibrating down. We're just call this 398 to 397 so we're going to say.

It's calibrating about 50 cents. So we're going to go from 390 750 to 397 so right about 397 is the current six month trend also right around uh. I think we said it was like 390 394 40. Or 390 450.

Anyway some right there is about the 50 sma. Which is cause and resistance so six months trend for the spies 397 that is in play. If the 50 sma breaks and we do pop out right that would be the first target on the upside today okay and then for the downside your downside target would not be the spy. Um it would actually be the nasdaq which is at 29642.

So if you think about where this price point is 296 42. On the nasdaq. We were right here in after hours primark high breakout. So the 296 42 is pretty much the 390 250 price point to 390 to 70 price points on the uh sorry on the spy.

So i hope that all made sense all right guys take care have a good day.