Morning ladies and gentlemen everybody welcome back to the channel. I appreciate you guys tuning tuning in with me today so first we're going to start with this chart on the market. So as everybody knows market's been going through a strong rally from the bottom of 364 362. So that 364 362 bottom.

We've bottomed and so far. We've hit a high or all the way up to prices of around 413 dollars last week wednesday fed. Announcement 075 basis point hike we get a bullish cross almost at about 1 12 30 pm. Last wednesday that's the buy signal market trends out and runs up since then so we can see pullbacks and bearish moves.

Downwards yes. But you won't be swing. Short or swing bearish until the blue crosses back below the red now last week. We had talked about this bullish cross.

We talked about staying on the long side of the market and we talked about seeing the markets increase to prices anywhere from really 410 up to like 425 being the max 425 in my opinion's a little bit of a stretch. But i figured anywhere in the 410s 415 4. 18. Was pretty much gonna happen so we've gotten to a high of 413 um last friday.

Now it's monday so to me. I think we're getting pretty close to being done with the bullish move that we've seen from the bottom of 364 now what i mean by that is if we could measure how far we think the move was going to go. I'd say 90. 95.

Of it is done um. 85 of it's done. So. If you weren't long starting long being long from 364.

If you didn't catch the last breakout. Let's say around what was it like 400s or even prior to that maybe a little lower 397 um. I would say you're on the last bit of this long stretch that we've been seeing all right so um. What we're going to do here is we're going to go to 180 day chart.

There's a lot of lines on here. But you know for the most part um. We had mentioned last week. And so on so forth that we expect the markets to revert back to their long term statistical.

Mean. For one which was around 400 and then as we break through that the markets would then trend up to their negative one deviation or sorry there plus. One deviation zone on the spy. The plus one deviation zone starts here and goes to here.

So you can see the top of that zone is 428. The middle is 420 and the beginning is 4 13. 80. You will see that on friday.

Our pullback started at a high of 4 13. 22. So we missed that target by about let's call it 40 cents 50 cents. Something like that all right so um in short we have gone through the mean we have trended towards the plus.

One deviation zone. So ideally. I think this is the new um expected location in which we would start to see some sort of selling action now mind you with inside the plus. One deviation zone.

We also have the six month plus three deviation so in the event. We see the markets pushed to the 424 43 price. Which probably won't happen today. But in general.

Just if this market does not sell off prior to the markets either going to the blue line or the blue line decreasing to the point where it's on top of the price prior or before a sell off then that's going to be a good short entry spot so pretty much we're not extremely long bias. Anymore. Because our expected long was to start here. And then the expected maximum movement of the long from here was going to be to here or in that zone.

And you can see we've pretty much done that so we do believe that about 90 95. 85 of the long move from 364 has been completed and this is going to be the zone. Where new selling starts to happen and then if we're supposed to be in a long extended bear market. Then this zone is where we're going to get our next rollover now.

How far um or or what should you expect in terms of the next pullback or the next rollover so um. If everything i said is true. We do roll over we go into a longer extended bear move following. Then obviously the price is going to go lower.

But you would expect the the main or immediate trading action move would be a reversion back to the mean so this is really oversold this bounce to here. And i'll really just say to the white line. Because you can see it got there well it really did so just some of these things aren't going to be dead nut to the penny. But you know when they're close enough.

We just got to call what it is so again this is oversold. We bounced directly straight back and we didn't touch that white line. There that's the six month mean we shied it let's say by 50 cents. But this is oversold and a bounce to the mean so this is the six month.

Mean okay then we drop and then we start to do that which is a bull flag below the mean right and we don't even have to draw the down trend line right so let's remove these drawings. We don't have to draw the downtrend line right so we bottom we go up we go down we dip go up we go down we dip and we go up and we don't need to draw the down trend line to create that picture of the bull flag because we know that the downtrend line in which the market is respecting and holding below is the six month mean the six month. Mean is what's creating the stair step fashion down so we don't actually have to draw it so we can visualize. It ourself.

It's already done for us pre determined so that's the bull flag the bull flag break so that pattern breakout that you see when you search up google and you go through a trading course in an educational video such as mine and whatnot people will draw these flags and go as we break over the trend line that's your buy signal that's when things are going to move so that buy signal the break of the trend is the break of the six month trend. The six month mean which we reverted to when we were oversold so we revert to the sixth month resistance at the sixth month. The six month trend and some other things creates a flag as we create or sorry as we cross through the sixth month that would be the flag pattern breaking so we have reverted to the mean we have crossed through the mean the next mean or the next statistical mean trend would be the weekly trend. Which is here right so you can see this move trends.

Almost to that mean we break through the mean once we break through this mean we trend into the plus. One zone and if this is where we're going to top and revert back down. We would then expect the markets to revert back to the price of the mean. Which would be 400.

So our ex next expected downward big bearish shift down um. We expect would fall back to the mean of 401. All right. This is where we'll probably see some sort of hesitation and maybe a one or two preventative day bounce to keep it from going down more.

But ultimately. This is kind of the flow. It would normally follow right so if we top here that means we're going to fall back to 400 401 wherever the price of this statistical mean is at when we fall over we'll go there and regardless of how well or how bad the support hold is off the mean would then kind of dictate how quickly we then fall. More and then we would fall back to this mean right there.

So this is the expected price point and then and then mind you right all right so we know that once we get into this zone. It's a selling area. We expect the market to fall to this mean and once you break that mean then it falls to this mean right there okay so considering that right if the market did fall over back to this mean and back to this mean. What sort of chart picture will that start to perform in inverse.

Head and shoulders okay look at where the price of the mean is it's right there so if we were to fall. All the way back over towards the mean sorry i drew that bad you would create the formation of an inverse head and shoulders okay and it's at this point. That if the six month. Mean did not hold and create a right shoulder to create an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

This is where the market would snap and we would go into a new low and you wouldn't be oversold on sorry let me redo that and if the market were to do we just said go over try to do an inverse head and shoulders and fail. And it breaks down here this breakdown theoretically would not be oversold until the market sells all the way down into the blue levels since the blue levers are oversold and they're below the previous low. We would take out the previous though most likely um so anyways. We um over the next couple weeks.

We'll probably be shifting gears back into more very sad a bit. But just just in general um. This is a this is pretty much what we're looking at and this chart's a little less messy. So i'm gonna bring it over so in general this is pretty much we're looking to bounce into say like this 420 right into these trends and then down again reverting back to the mean so so right now you know for 400 402.

That's pretty much going to be our first destination down on our our next. Corrected. Breakdown alright. Guys hope you had a good day.

And i'll catch everybody back in the next video.