What's going on? guys, welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you tuning in. Don't have a ton of time this morning so not gonna go through a ton of things, but we're gonna hit home on all the important topics for this morning that I think you guys need to know which again, starts here on the chart in the bottom right. Let's zoom in just a little bit here.

Okay, we know that once we break below the 50, Longs are off the table unless you're trading some sort of little dead cap bounce or uh, pullback and you're aware that it's just a pullback right and then you'll be okay. But the you know first general rule of thumb below the 50 SMA you are in cash all right. and if you want to be aggressive then you can short. But if you want to play the conservative approach, it's just once we go below the 50 SMA Here you would be in cash on the S P 500 and in many cases a lot of different stocks because as we know, when the market goes down, stocks go down.

So when the market breaks the 50 SMA you can go to cash and you're most likely not going to miss out on anything too crazy in terms of Apple or Facebook or Microsoft going up because the Market's going down. and then when you flip into a new Buy Signal you can deploy cash back into the S P and back into equities and stocks because we know that when the market goes up, then the likelihood of Facebook and Apple and Microsoft and Tesla and Amazon and so on so forth. Those kinds of things. those kinds of stocks more likely to go up.

So you can think of going to cash below the 50 SMA is essentially just preserving your capital from the market downturn, which will generally affect equities as well. and I'll just put an E there for that. All right. So we know that we're bearish and we haven't gotten a Buy Signal yet.

Okay, now what I want to do is I want to take this over to Trading View. All right. So Trading View is actually. um, it's a kind of set up really nicely here this morning.

So I'm going to clear all this off and we're going to clear all that off one second. Cleaner, clear, good. All right. So the whole purpose of you know kind of what we're talking about this morning is help you guys understand the difference of what can happen when the market flips the 10.

SMA. So as we just talked about, you have the 50 SMA above it below. It is bearish. That is true.

and then in the immediate the 10 SMA which is this blue line. Okay there. I Know there's a lot on this chart, but the reality is, you're just. it's just a 10.

SMA So if I were to take back this chart here right? and we add a 10 estimate just like this, which I'll do real quickly, it'll be a little cleaner on this chart and let's just add a 10. SMA There we go. One second. Boom.

All right. and so there's the tennis in there right there. That's all it is. So when I bring over trading view, it's the same thing.

just looks a little different. all right. So we're just looking at the 10 SMA So yesterday morning the 10 SMA was priced up here. So if I zoom in on this chart to the left, okay, that was the 10 SMA that blue line.

So yesterday morning we gapped down and we're below that blue line. So in the immediate, the market is more bearish because in the immediate it's not even above its short term 10 SMA and real quick. Never in the history of any bounce. any reversal.

Dead cap bounce. Stock market bottom, Stock market bottom. After a stock market crash, stock market bottom after a one minute pullback does not matter. Every single up move in the market, whether up move, the best up move you've ever seen.

Halfway decent up move one minute, five minute, ten minute, 30 minute weekly monthly quarterly 20-year 50-year five, second, two second, one second doesn't matter. It always breaks above the 10 SMA first as it does the nine or it would the eight, six, seven, five, one. SMA It doesn't matter. But generally speaking, all uptrends have to break above a 10 or a 9.

SMA before you would even start to consider a bounce or a reversal is happening. Why? Because we know that every single up mover bounce in the market has to break the tennis in May 1st they literally do every single time from the beginning of time. So if that is the first thing that would have to at least happen before a reversal or an uptrend can start, then we know that when today we look and go. Oh, this blue line here that I just circled.

that's the 10 SMA right? You can see that little blue line. that's the 10 SMA And we know since the beginning of time no uptrend has started until at least we get above the 10. SMA Then we would look at this morning when we wake up and go. Oh, yesterday afternoon we bottomed, went to the 10, SMA stopped, then broke out to the upside.

this could doesn't guarantee, but this could be the start of a shitty uptrend. A bounce. A good bounce, A great bounce. The best bounce you've ever seen in your entire life.

Why? Because at least ATL not gonna spell it at least step one has been completed, which is number one. ATL for at least the 10 SMA has to break upwards before any bounce can ever take place. What happened this morning? You gotta break over the 10. SMA So the logic of a bounce potentially starting is starting to come into market analysis right yesterday morning.

long bounce uptrend was not ever even discussed why, or that thought or process of logic is not entering the market on trades in that moment. Why? Because we're below the 10 SMA So since we're below, that does not mean we're going to start introducing the logic of uptrend starting. In the event yesterday this bounced, came here and then broke through. Then we would say hey, we're over the tenants of May This could potentially lead to a bounce or a bottom or something.

Why? Because we're just now getting over it. Okay, that's logic Disclaimer: Just because you get over a 10 SMA doesn't mean it's going to bottom doesn't mean that it's not going to fall back over Just like you saw here. There's the 10. SMA We broke over.

So in that moment you could say hey, it's possible that we're starting a bounce or that this could bounce or it was a dead cap bound. So the Market's going to reverse. Why? Because that's at least minimum the first thing that has to happen before the market reverses. So you break over the tenants I Mean, and it just rides it as support all day Yesterday or two days ago, right? and then yesterday, pre-market What happens? Instead of holding above the 10 SMA and continuing the uptrend, it rolls and falls and breaks back below.

right? And then it's resistance. And then this morning we curl and break up. Now we pull back two and we're holding above right? That could curl the market up so you can have situations where you break below it after breaking above it and again. Remember, a tennisame is a short-term Trend Okay, if it's a short-term trend then it doesn't guarantee you're going to be having a big move take place.

But one thing is for sure that any move small or big or gigantic will always break the 10 SMA first. So when you start to break over the Tennessee you can start to get in line with the potential possibilities of the market. Whereas if you're like oh, I'm gonna short this but you're actually over the tennis of a you could short this and then it roll over. Breakdown: Amazing trade.

or you could short this and it just come back to the 10 SMA hold support as it very well can and then curl back up and go right So you're starting to put the odds more on your side. So enough of me yelling at you through the microphone. Uh, so pretty much all that's happened this morning as we've broken over the 10. SMA Um, so we're starting to this morning see the signs of a potential dead cat bounce or any sort of long opportunity may be arising.

We would based off of all that logic this this 42657 which might change a little bit when we go into the open. but pretty much it's just that tennisame that's the current over under you can see because obviously we're gapping over it and the Market's using it beautifully has an algo level so that 10 SMA is the over under. Bullish. Bearish.

Immediate. Trend kind of flip all right. So as long as you're over it, no shorts going to pay you out big. All right.

That and what I mean by that is, you could be short here and we could come to here and bounce. So this is the trigger point that would convince the market and algorithms that we're not quite ready to bounce if we were to get below it. So that's why I'm saying anything you short up here. Best case scenarios down to here and it only pays big if you flip this potential long move back to a down leg and the down leg confirmation or Real Flush point is here.

That's where it starts. Okay, so um, we're going to be slightly long bias over the 10. SMA if we start to flip under that, then we'll kind of flip gears back to bearish. So that's where today's kind of funky is that you're kind of watching it.

The market has an over under right so we broke over and you're kind of long biased for a dip to hopefully hold a higher low here. And if that were to fail, then you would be okay with just watching the market flop and sell off and then look for kind of bounces back to maintain below, right? So uh, right here is kind of kind of iffy to get long because you still haven't really back tested the 10. um you could get long here and how the market could just go. That's kind of the the problem of of the situation is you're not on support.

you're a little extended from it where if you get long here it could drop and then you have to wait for the test of support that may never support and then it flushes. So that's why it's ideal. You're trying to get your entries as close to those levels so that even if you're wrong, you're taking a small loss even if it fails kind of deal. So we might get a little bit of a dead cat bounce today and if we do, we're just going to bounce back to some other you know sell.

Signal View apps continuation view app so you know I'll just toss like a couple on the screen here for you guys. Um real quick. So if we go to extended hours so this one's here. Yeah so like one of our next kind of sell signal levels up is 4 30 12.

but the way that we kind of first watch this is pretty much we'd expect that the market takes off to this upper band which is so pretty much the long Target of the market Breaking out 427.51 is going to be a target of 428.83 and obviously acceptance above that would basically wash out this leg and then we would squeeze to there. So you see I'm now I'm getting just way too detailed and this is what I was talking about is like I could just go on for days. but the reality is we're kind of flipping a little bit to the upside today and and Main targets for breaks to the upside sequence of event targets to the upside would be basically 429, a little less 428.80 and then like basically 430 right? And so the way you think about this is like a stair-step fashion. like okay, uptrend uptrend breaks out too first.

V web up. This V web could hold resistance right, bring us back down to support but doesn't really matter either or we break out. Go to First View app. You break this view app out, you go to Upper band.

you may get some resistance, you break that one out. Then you go to next up and there's how your stair stepping fashion uptrend is formed because the market doesn't move in a straight line. it moves in sequences right and so sequences would be like okay. go from point A to point B point B to point C And along each point you're going to have resistance.

Or you could have resistance. Sometimes one point might not have much resistance and it might just Rippy Rippy Dippy dippy flippy flippy Skippy Skippy All right, so we're pretty much kind of flipping Trend up a little bit today and just put it this way you know, breaking out and having a decent long trade over today's pre-market high this kind of view app area we're first going 429 is Target and then we're gonna go to like 430. Um yeah, Cheers! Have a good one.