What's going on? Guys, welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you guys tuning in. So I figured today we would do. uh, a full breakdown.

We're going to look at moving averages. We'll look at statistics and we'll look at Anchor V webs. So first going into moving averages, then we'll look at some statistics and then we'll look at the Anchor Baps. So the first thing that I want to do is just zoom in this chart.

As always, the 30 minute open, high, low, close chart and remember we're below the 50 SMA That's where the downtrend started. This was the back test of resistance. Again, the 50 SMA is resistance. Once you have a sell signal, it's resistance until we start to get over it.

Then we can flip it. but again, that would be a rejection at the 50 SMA as resistance. During the F most recent Fomc meeting, the 50 SMA is now priced here 434.59 and we're not above it. Okay, so basically what that means is we have yet to see a Buy Signal cents back here.

Okay, that was a Buy Signal and that was a buy. Then we went to a sell signal and have yet to have a new Buy Signal. So there isn't truly a Buy Signal slash uptrend to be trading for now. Okay, now what I want to do is I Actually just want to go back on this chart a little bit and just look at the market using the 50 SMA.

So we're on 180 day 30 minute chart just so we can go back and look at the past. uh, past trading on this Market All right. So we're going to watch this and we're going to follow basically two, two three rules. Okay So we could say rule number one is over the 50 SMA You're bullish so one would be bullish over the 50.

SMA Okay, and then rule number two would be below the 50 SMA or in cash. so we're not even going to trade anything short Bias: We're just going to trade, uh, back to cash. so we're either. So we're only looking at long bias trades and then account protection Capital Preservation and Risk Management And those are really, that's basically it.

That's two rules, all right. So whenever the market breaks over the 50 SMA we add long. and when we say break over and ideally you want to see a breakover and like, maybe a candle close. Whether that's like a 20 minute candle 30 minute candle, but you'd like to see some sort of closing over that 50.

SMA All right. So and I guess rule number three. We'll just put this as like a side note. Three, We have to take some profit on the long move after we've entered or else there's no point of doing any of it.

Okay, so you gotta take some profit. So right here you would be long, take some profit there, your long would close and you would go to cash. right? Here is where your lawn would restart. You would be long the market again and you'd have to take profit anywhere along that move before it then breaks back down here.

Then you go to cash, then your long would restart somewhere in here and pops up. You could maybe take some profit on that. if you don't, you'd stop out here and then your long would restart here and you'd have to take profits somewhere along that move. you go back to Cache here and your long would restart here and then you'd lose and your long would restart here.

Maybe you win, but probably lose, then you'd be back to cash, Then you'd be back long and then you'd be back to back to cash, right? So if you follow that approach, the main purpose is that by being long over the 50 SMA you avoid the drawdowns. Okay, and so we went through an example or a couple right here where this tactic, you might have a lot of small winning trades or a lot of small losing trades. Or you might just do doing a bunch of back to back break. Evens like if you got long here, like the market pops and pops up like you know, two dollars a share before it just reverses and slams down.

So it's like you had a very small window of opportunity. The two dollars per share there to make some money before the market kind of goes back down. Now the good thing is uh is that when you use a 50 SMA as an over under bullish bearish uh or bullish than Capital preservation level. Essentially, your long would start hopefully somewhere around that 50 SMA as you break up and then your stop will be right below it.

so your your losses should be for the most point, Very small because the same level that you use to get long is the same level that you would use to go Stop Out. It never changes, right? So it's not like you're getting long here and then your stop loss is going to be this low, right? It's always going to be the same price point for the most part that you entered at when you got one. Okay, so this is a good example of why this is a great great system here. So again, here you would be long.

you have the opportunity to take profit, then you would stop out. Then you'd be back. Long could take profit, Stop out back long, take profit, Stop out back, long, stop out. and then you don't even try any new Longs until arguably maybe here.

Maybe here. All right slash here. Okay, so by going to cash, you would avoid most of that drop. Okay, that's the beauty of that system.

You'd preserve your Capital throughout that whole downswing. Why? Because you never got back over the 50 so there's no point of even trying Lawn. Okay, and then you go back and we get long and beautiful. long move, take profit at some point, stop out and then you'd avoid this whole downturn.

Why? Because once you broke here, you never broke over the 50 again. and so you'd avoid that whole downturn. So how nice is that not to get caught in a twenty dollar drop on the market. and then when it comes back to here, maybe you get long and then you stop out.

Maybe you got long stopped out and maybe get long stop. I'll get long, win and then back along et cetera et cetera. So it's a beautiful way to get on the right side of the trend and avoid a lot of drops. All right.

So that's the main purpose of that SMA system. So again, when we go and look at the market, what's going on? We had a sell signal here. we're not above the 50. the Market's going down.

So for the past week or so I Traders in our room and anybody who's listened to any of the social media that we do would avoid, um, a drop from 447 all the way down to about 428 there. So you have avoided a 20 drop in the market by following along with the videos, practicing the same strategy or system you know and what have you, right? So that? so that's so. that's awesome, right? I Can't Can't be happier than helping you know as many people as possible, avoid a 20 decrease in their portfolio or in their long position by simply just following the rule of your go to cash below that. All right.

So that tells us what obviously that the market is still down and it has not broken the 50. Therefore, we haven't gotten any sort of signaling to be long bias Again, signaling would be again breaking over the 50 and curling up right for a long. We haven't even tried that right? So one day, someday in the future we'll eventually get a Buy Signal and we'll be back. Along In the narrative on these videos will change from hey guys, we've embarrassed.

Hey guys, we got to buy signal everything Watch long Up right and the narrative will go from hey Guys, we're now along the market. you're not bearish and I'll start pointing at the chart and going see how we're over the 50. we're long bias Market Long bias Market We don't have a sell signal till we're back below so the narrative will literally change to the exact opposite just on the upside. Okay, all right, so that's that.

Now next thing is some statistics. Maybe if I can find the right shot, dead is okay. So here's a there's a statistics chart. This one's arguably somewhat of my busier chart, so I'm just gonna make this even simpler for us.

Let's see. Um here. Take that off and that one alone should be much much more simple. Yep, that's a lot more simple.

Okay, so what we're here doing is looking at a standard deviation chart. I'm going to put this on a 30 day 30 minute. All right. So all the big thick lines, dashed lines you see in there Those are one year weeklies and then the smaller solid lines you see in there are the 30-day Trends.

So a little tidbit for you. Um, the volatility index. The vix is calculated based off of the 30-day implied option volatility on the S P 500.. So, 30 day charts tend to work really nicely with standard deviation.

Because again, standard deviation and the volatility index is bait or sorry. Let me rephrase that. standard deviation is a measure of volatility. Okay, and the volatility index, which is literally the volatility measurement of the S P 500 is created on a 30-day options pricing for the S P 500.

So that's why 30-day charts with standard deviation volatility measurements work well. Okay, I might have said that. Pretty confusing. All you got to know is that 30 days is a good time frame to use standard deviation.

Okay, and then also one year weeklies and whatever. So all right, looking at this chart. white line is the mean. This means fair value, six to zero line.

And down here this yarn back that line. That's negative one. So the Mark is effectively gone on sale. So we move from the zero line to negative one.

So now the market is now on sale. That's pretty much what that means. Um, and the market has done its normal fluctuation from plus One to negative one. What we mean by that is Um, the it's very common for the markets to stay and remaining in and fluctuating between one standard deviation of the mean.

So if you look at this chart again, the white line being the mean orange on top being plus one orange on bottom being minus one. Again, the market has effectively gone from Plus One to fair value to Um value by here at negative one. So what that means is theoretically we're very close to support here. Um, so it would make sense that you start seeing, you know, acute attempts of accumulation here to bounce the market it.

That just makes the most sense. Okay, nothing ever moves in a straight line In generally speaking, the stock market Um, 70 percent of the time will trade within one standard deviation of the mean plus or minus. So when you look at this chart, would you say that 70 of the price action of the stock market as of recently has been with inside plus One to negative one? The only times it ever went outside, plus one or negative one over the last at least 180 days was here Okay, right there here and occasionally like these little pops up there so there was just very very very minimal. So when you think of Statistics statistically speaking, the stock market will exist 70 percent of the time, 75 of the time within one standard deviation plus or minus of the mean.

Okay, so this in the middle, this white line is the mean. okay or zero down here would be minus one standard deviation STD for abbreviation and you can't see it, but it's up here I'll just make my own. That would be plus one STD in 70 percent. Statistically speaking, looking at this, I'd say it's closer to 75.

But anyways, 70 of the price action PA for abbreviation price action will exist within side plus one or minus one of the mean. Okay, so what that means is if you look at this chart, does the market not exist with inside one standard deviation of the mean? Which is this okay. One standard deviation on the mean is this line here. that's plus one and this one here is minus one.

Would you say that most of the price action is inside of those lines? Or would you say that most of the price actions outside of them Now, seventy percent of the price action is within side. The only time that the price action wasn't inside was this split here. This split there and couple little random blips there. Other than that all of this was inside that was inside.

This was all inside and this has all been inside. That would say that's about 70 75 percent. So what that tells us is is as we come down here. Not that this is entirely true, but a way of explaining it while using the statistical probability logic would be there's a 70 75 percent chance you're going to bounce down here because 70 of the time the price action remains with inside standard deviation.

So we would assume that you know we can trade into here, maybe flirt a little bit and hang out, but eventually it's just going to pop back up because that's what's most likely to happen, right? That's and it's not a guarantee that it does it right away and you can drop a load a little bit, but then come back. But that's the concept. Whereas if the market had done this or does this or if the market would sell all the way down to here, right if the market sold all the way down to here, this would be minus three. and the probabilities would suggest that 99 of the time the market stays with inside minus three.

So if the market sold all the way to here, that would be an anomaly, right? So I'm not going to spell it doesn't matter, that would be that would be very rare right down here. That would be already so extremely rare that that's number one Number two statistics would say that 99 of the time we stay inside. So that means this would be basically a guaranteed balance point. Or you'd assume that the market gets down here that it's almost guaranteed in a few days time a week's time that the price action will be back above that foreign.

so that pretty much covers our statistics portion of the video. Now on to the last part, which is just anchor view app volume weighted average price trends on the current sell signal of the market, which kind of gives you intermediate price points that you could be, uh, more aggressive with in your trading. Style Um, one second, just gotta let them all load Maybe it's still coming there. You go.

All right, you know? I don't want to make this too confusing. Um, but you know we'll do our best to make it. uh, simple and fun I Guess so. Pretty much right here.

I'm going to move this yellow line to here. that's our main sell Signal View app Also why you saw such a big rejection off the Fomc there and slam down. that's our sell signal. Bearish.

short entry view app um, the number two. We would anchor this view app to pretty much this tag of this view app and or the Fomc announcement. so we're just going to do both, which would give us two more bearish levels to watch which again would be pretty much the 50 SMA which is already expected to be resistance when you tag it for now until we break over. So we're just looking at volume weighted average prices of this current sell signal.

So again, how we're bearish below that 50 SMA now all these yellow lines are is just tracking and making View apps of this cell move. So pretty much all it means is uh, we're not bullish, we're still bearish. We're still fighting a bearish view apps. Okay, and really the bearish view app that we're working on is derived off a pre-market chart.

You can see like this was fomc drop following day. This 30 minute top has really been the Vu app that the Market's been kind of respecting as of recently and heading down and off of. Um. So that kind of tells me that with the amount of respect that this is getting, this is going to be a key view app to flip upwards for a long push in the future.

Um so basically over the past day or two I've been following this Vu app for rejections. Um now I will say to those are in our chat room we weren't watching this view app the other day. This is something. maybe I just started only using I think it was really yesterday or day before.

Um, and that's because um, we've had such an aggressive sell-off that the market in this drop this right here. This has been so aggressive down that I knew the market would not retrace back to our original F1 Cvu app or a current sell Signal View apps or continuation View apps because the move is so strong down. So therefore the market had to be respecting some other View app going down and that's where it came to my attention that obviously it's using the day after Fomc pre-market top V Web as the current Trend down. So pretty much what that means is is uh, you know everything is just counter Trend bounce back to that level Until It Breaks and then we'll see a long pop.

So again what we're saying is everything is still just Trend down below that view app. And now since we got a nice rejection overnight in the short term, something we would be watching would be like the overnight View app and that would be our next short entry. So pretty much right now is your short entry off view app. See that see I just anchored there right? So I'll show you back here, right? So like on this day, we rally up, we hit the View app and sell off so we would basically start anchoring and that would be our next bearish V web trend for intraday trades, right? So you can see that we were following that and then we kind of got over it a little bit today, but you can ultimately see back under itself.

Also, all you gotta know is that this is a 30 minute top View app down and that's your short entry. Guaranteed you'd stop out over it. So that's the other nice thing is that the stopout's very defined. So again, your short entry is here and uh, your stop-outs above it, All right.

So anyways, Cheers! have a good one.