Into this live stream we're going to talk about the CPI data that's just come out and I mentioned yesterday in the video If you haven't seen it yet? Make sure you go and watch it after this one. Maybe pause this one if you're watching this, not live. Um, where I go into a bit of more depth on some of the metrics, but the stock market seems to be doing something that I'm not sure I'm going to be able to explain I will do my absolute best because let's go and look at the data. The data is here and the CPI index came in for December at 6.5 which is bang on what the stock market expected.

A pretty significant drop from the 7.1 percent that we saw in November and month a month seasonally adjusted, but month to month it went down 0.1 percent which is you know, pretty good is pretty much what everyone expected and what did the stock market do on the back of that? Well, nothing, very much. We first had a little dive in the S P 500 NASDAQ Um, some of the growth stocks like Tesla not maybe just a lot of gross earlier stage companies grow stocks, companies valued on the future earnings have dived significantly more, a lot of them are down three or two percent and I'm looking at this and going. Let's look at what the commentary is. I Went and sat and listened to the CNBC guys talking about it for a few minutes and I'll just completely dumbfounded because here is roughly.

here is roughly how the analysis of this day to go and goes: I'm sorry. All right. did I did I mistype something in the title? All right. I'm so sorry.

Let me just uh. I don't know. Anyway, so um, if inflation goes down, it is a bad thing. Because low inflation means that there is less demand for goods.

It is. It means that people are spending less money. It means that we are on the brink of a recession. It means that the whole economy is going to collapse.

It means that people are going to be spending even less money. People are going to be even more cautious. Industry is selling Goods to people Are going to stop sending Goods to those people because they're not buying them. People selling those goods are going to start laying off employees.

Those employees are not going to earn any money. They're going to go on the dolls. They're not going to earn any money to pay their rent to pay their bills. and we're going to get into a cycle of really, really bad stuff.

We're going to go into a recession. We're going to go into a depression. The whole world is going to collapse. Go and build a bunker in your garden.

So inflation going down is a really bad thing apparently. Also, inflation going up. You might wonder what about inflation? Inflation going up is also a really bad thing Because inflation going up is. you know it means less people can afford things.

Real wages keep falling further and further behind inflation. People's ability to spend money doesn't go anywhere near as far. Therefore, companies are seeing a drop in demand of their products. Companies are laying off a load of people.

Everything is going to go to share. Everyone's going to get fired. So if you haven't quite clicked on yet, inflation going up is bad. Inflation going down is also bad.

But what about employment? Because remember, the FED has three objectives. One is to keep inflation low at around two percent. One is to keep employment at the maximum rate. This is something most people seem to not understand because I see a lot of videos where people seem to think that the Fed's objective is to cause maximum unemployment.

That is kind of the opposite of the truth. But anyway, the FED has three objectives: One, inflation keep it at two percent, two maximum employment, and three. While achieving those two things, make sure that the interest rates are not too high or somewhere reasonable. Now, employment data has come in this morning, again at the monthly.

The weekly whatever jobless data in the US is extremely strong, far beyond where everyone is expected. I think it dropped by another one thousand or something. It's doing extremely well and everyone's looking and going. Oh, that's a really bad sign because you see with employment if employment goes up, so unemployment goes down, if employment data is good, that's a really bad sign because that means that people are are continuing to earn a load of money.

That means they have more money to spend on Goods That fuels inflation. That fuels all the kind of problems associated with the market going and overheating. and we're going to see a massive Crash from it off. Of course it's going to be the worst thing ever.

But employment getting worse is also a bad thing because you see low employment means less people are earning money those people can't go and spend their money on. Goods Therefore, the economy slows down and we are definitely going to crash into a recession and everything is going to go bad and you might as well go and just capitulate and sell your stocks now. So in case you haven't quite figured it out, my summary of all the analysis that I've seen all over: YouTube on CNBC Etc is roughly inflation going up, is bad, inflation going down is bad, employment going down, or unemployment going up is bad, unemployment coming down. Therefore, employment going up is also bad.

So every thing anything that can happen with the economy, the outcome is bad. and the reason the outcome is bad is because everyone has already decided before any data before any indicators that the economy is absolutely definitely categorically absolutely gonna go to. It's gonna collapse all the way to zero. All the stocks are going to go down to a multiple of 0.2 or whatever it is and I'm looking at this and I'm looking and going.

What is happening? Why is everyone thinking this way and I think that the only way that I can explain it in my head. the only way I can kind of explain it to myself is people like to go and just follow whatever the popular thing is at the moment. People just go and repeat the same that they hear this happened a year ago. one or a year and a bit ago when everyone was saying that inflation is Transit is going to go away by itself and exactly the same thing is happening right now in Reverse Both times the data is indicating the exact opposite.

I Think what everyone's saying. I'm looking at this data and it's looking phenomenal. I'm going to explain why I think it's phenomenal. Inflation overall is coming down.

Uh, and it is likely to continue coming down. Food prices are up 0.3 a month a month, but on an annualized basis. they're you know, compared to what food prices were doing in June July August We're looking a lot better. It is a very gradual process.

Sure, they're still going up so it's not coming down, just the rate of increases is decreasing. But the inflation in food prices is coming down and that is an incredibly good thing. I am expecting this probably is going to fall below 10 in the next one or two months. certainly before the March Um Fomc committee meeting, there's one at the end of this month.

Um I think in about 10 days, 12 days, whatever it is, and one year in March Just after we see the February inflation data come out. uh, the two midday meeting starts the day after. Then we have energy and I Was talking about this yesterday. I Was saying how everyone's going to be massively surprised that hey, and then she's going to start posting negative numbers that are going to be very substantial.

These are not even substantial. This is minus 4.5 minus 10, minus 16. we're going to be seeing much bigger numbers if oil and gas don't suddenly explode out of nowhere into the stratosphere. because I Talked about this yesterday.

Here is the data of what happened with oil prices last year. Um, and you you kind of. you can see if the oil price does not go back up to the same levels, then we're going to be running at minus 30 Minus 20 percent, minus 15. Whatever it may be here is gas prices if gas prices don't explode from here, and I know a lot of people think that the world is definitely going to end and therefore all price is going to explode if we enter some kind of a recession style environment.

Whether it's technically a recession according to whoever or it isn't, Um, if we do enter it, the likelihood is that commodity prices like on energy, are not going to go up. Because people are going to be spending this money, businesses are going to be cutting back, this production is going to slow. So if anything, a recession, a short-term recession will probably help this point anyway. But if the prices just stay at where they are right now.

if they don't continue falling even further, Remember, on a five-year basis, the current prices are still reasonably high on a sort of ongoing basis. So they're lower than they have been during this tumultuous time. But over a the last year, they're very low. So when we're going to be seeing this data repeat next month, the month after the month after that, we're either going to be seeing a big reduction in commodity prices on energy, or even if the prices go and Skyrocket back up if the war in Ukraine goes and gets worse.

if there's some other unexplained thing happens I Don't know. Whatever, we're still going to be seeing either a zero or a close to zero increase. or if they don't run up as much as they did. You know when the biggest supplier of energy to Europe and one of the biggest in the world suddenly went to war and got banned from supplying energy.

If something less dramatic happens this year or the situation improves and resolves in other ways, then we're still going to be seeing some form of a negative impact on inflation. When we're looking at the inflation numbers, these annual numbers on energy are going to suddenly start looking negative. Eventually, it will take a bit of time. I Do get it.

I Do understand it. You know the petrol. the pump doesn't immediately get cheaper the next day after oil prices fall blah blah. I Get it.

But eventually we're going to be seeing a negative trend on these prices because we had such a ridiculous upward Spike Last time around, food is probably going to continue coming down all these new vehicles old Vehicles Whatever, they're all coming down slowly. The one thing that is gonna stop uh, inflation coming down even more sharply than it would otherwise do is shelter. I'm going to make a separate video where I explain the shelter lag effect because I was on Twitter and there's a whole suddenly a whole bunch of people discussing is shelter or lagging effect I Was talking about this just yesterday saying that suddenly people will find out that shelter is really important and suddenly shelter is at 7.5 percent. Shelter will probably continue going up while all the other parts of the CPI are coming down.

The reason that's going to be happening is because Shelter lags the real world rental prices and the real world house prices. But shelter does not lag. This is really important. It does not lag what people actually pay for their housing.

This is what people don't seem to understand. They seem to think, well. look. I Can see that the rental prices have gone up.

I Can see that house prices gone up and Shelter only started going up a year later. a year and a half later. How come that means that the FED is making decisions based on our data data. That means the FED doesn't have any idea what they're doing.

They're so dumb. Look at these people. They're so stupid and sure they make some questionable decisions. This is not one of them.

Let me briefly explain it. I'll make a whole video for all the numpties who don't quite understand it to understand better. But here's what happens if rental prices go up yesterday and you live in a rented apartment somewhere and you have a fixed term contract, Does your rent immediately increase that day? The answer is no, You have to wait on until your fixed home contract ends or whatever. Depending on where you live is going to be a little bit different in the US it's going to be a bit different to other countries.

But anyway, so what happens is you have to wait until either your fixed term contract ends or you move or something else happens. Even when it ends, there is going to be some negotiation. The landlord might know that the going rate for a new rental property that's going on to the market is X but because you're already in there, they might be able to offer you a discount in order to avoid other costs or the hassle. We're moving.

So the time change between when the rental yields of new properties coming onto the market being taken by new tenants by new owners and when the rest of the people who see their rent increase is quite long people. They seem to understand the kind of the mechanics of this. It's pretty simple. It's really not rocket science.

The same thing goes with house prices. If you live in a house that you own mortgage, not mortgage, doesn't really matter if house prices increase over the last year by 20 million percent. Does your mortgage increase? The answer is no, it doesn't increase until you sell the house and move to a different one and buy a different one or rent one or whatever. This is why shelter is a lagging indicator.

Shelter is not a lagging indicator because people are stupid. Shelter is not lagging indicated because people can't do basic math. So because you know. Oh, the argument that I see Kathy would make on Twitter everyone else copy Kathy Wood because everyone just likes to Parrot The same that some other person says just because they're all over CNBC In the media, shelter is not a lagging indicator of what people are actually paying.

Shelter is a lagging indicator of the advanced indicators that will be telling you what people will be paying for their accommodation in the future Because current house prices of house prices being sold on the market, and current increases in rent yields of new properties being taken from the market are not what everyone else is paying. Anyway, what this means is because we have seen, uh, where is it Because we've seen rent yields run really high. There were this 12 to 15 rate for a long time before the slides come down. Um, that means that the your rental yields that are in the shelter part of the CPI index have not yet caught up to this long period of 12 to 15.

So while the rental yields have been going up, going up, going up shelter, the shelter part of the index has not. In fact, here is what the shelter part of the index was doing. You can see it was sitting like 3.6 whatever it was and coming down. um then it was suddenly started going up.

And during all of this period when shelter was sitting, well, this period really over here these two years over here. While Seattle was sitting at you know, two percent, three percent for a long period of time, all the while rental yields were climbing and going absolutely off the chart at 12 to 15 at the same time, house prices since the start of the Clover pandemic when absolutely bananas as well. Look here is the index of what the house prices? This is just one I Know there's many different indices. Don't go and tell me I should be looking at this or that.

it doesn't really matter. I'm making a point that is relatively basic: House prices have been increasing substantially during the cover period and they've sort of flatlined. If some indexes have continued going up at a slower rate, some indexes have started falling. They stopped going up for the last six months or thereabouts.

But all the while they've been going up by this crazy leap over here from like 280 base index to 390 base index. On this particular chart, the shelter part of the CPI index still didn't go up. so it has to catch up because people who were living in their house over here over here at some point in the future in mid this year 2023, they decide they need to sell up and move for whatever reason work I don't know. Whatever, They're gonna have to contend with prices that have gone up all of this amount of uh value since the last time that they bought.

This is why shelter is going to continue going up when we, where is it split Uh I've lost that this world. Shelter is going to continue going up for a little while because it has to catch up. However, shelter is now at seven and a half percent. rental yields have started coming down.

They're sitting at more like seven. Eight percent. Or they're about depending on who you believe. Whatever house prices have stopped climbing.

So at some point, Shelter is probably going to overtake the real numbers and then there'll be a downward pressure from that point onwards that at some point, uh is gonna is Gonna Come Back Down What is probably likely to happen though in two, three, four months I Don't know when it's gonna happen just because we already see the data. this data is already in. It's already happened. So at some point Shelter has to go and do what this data is saying.

But at some point we're going to start this conversation I Think that actually started today. At some point, we're going to start the conversation which says Hey Shelter is a really big deal with seven and a half percent now, but at some point in 18 months, if food continues coming down, we're probably going to be in a position where, hey, food is let down below, shelter energy is going to be in negative territory and Shelter is going to be the one number on this chart. that's going to be ridiculous. Maybe it's going to be at eight percent.

Maybe eight and a half percent. Whatever is going to be. And at that point, people are going to be saying hey, hang on, Shelter is 33 Just under 33 of the total CPI And it's by far the highest number. and we think it's this kind of lagging indicator, not lagging in the sense that you know it's wrong, but in the sense that we know that in the future it will start coming down because house prices stopped growing and Rental yields have started coming down.

So at some point shelter has to start decreasing instead of increasing. And at that point I think there's going to be a very, very strong debate among analysts among social media people among probably the FED themselves. which as well, the rate of inflation is not a two percent at the moment. However, we know that shelter is going to come down because the data that tells it that it will have to come down in the future has already happened.

It's not a guesstimate, it's not a forecast as much as just a you know you have to wait for it to actually come through. So should you continue increasing rates and I think the answer is today. Everyone was very surprised I was watching CBC and I was like oh my God All the analysts have suddenly changed and they are now saying after the data came out that it's only going to be a 0.25 increase at the end of January and I'm sitting here going. How is this not obvious? Like a month ago I've been kind of explaining this.

It's not. It's not very complicated or difficult and and some and I think a lot of these people are still surprised. Uh, that the increases are going to come down I think a lot more people are even more surprised that potentially maybe in March we're not even going to have an increase at all. And yes, they want to make a video.

A whole load of people were saying, you hand me ideas to ask you what are you saying Of course they're going to continue increasing rates until they're 25 or 50 or whatever Made a number that somebody said and everyone's just repeating everyone says hey, Jordan Power made a speech and because your own power made a speech in a speech, he was hawkish and I listened to these words. look I found this one word that he said which was very, very strong and slightly different to the same word that he said five months ago and everyone just seems to forget that it doesn't really matter what he says because these guys are quasi-politicians They say one thing and then two months later they do the exact opposite. The mid-november they go and say that hey, inflation is going to go well by itself. We will not.

The words were literally I I I don't have the exact quote in front of me, but the words were tantamount to we will not have to increase interest rates Janet Yellen was saying this at the senate committee. Um, the the FED were saying it. All The different members of the FED were saying it all at the same time in every which meeting that they turned up to and then I'm looking at it going. Oh, a month later during Power Goes and says that they're going to start increasing raids after saying for a long time that there's absolutely zero chances going to happen and they started increasing them on March after Dilly dallying for a while and I have no idea why it took them so long because the longer it took, the worse the situation was gaining because the moment it started increasing rates, the moment QE was cut in the moment that they started tightening in this new program, um, suddenly things started moving in the right direction inflation wise and everyone was panicking at the time and I was just jumping up and down saying this is great This is what they should have been doing all along and now we're in this position where everyone's kind of swung the other way.

Everyone's like no, they're definitely going to keep increasing rates and I'm sitting here going if the rates go up from the 4.5 upper band of the of the rates, if they rates go up from there to 4.75 and then let's say inflation is at 6.5 Now let's say over the next two months because of the energy effect, because of everything else is happening because of the real wages be behind and uh, the inflation wage battle never actually taking off at this time which is quite unusual in a period of high inflation. But hey, it happened which is great. Um, because of that, let's say it drops. Not anything crazy like it has been.

Remember in the last few months has been dropping by point five point six percent per month. But let's say in the next two months it drops by just point five percent total to six percent. So if there's just about a one percent 1.25 Gap and inflation keeps coming down, Do you think the FED really will go and continue increasing rates? point five percent of the time even 0.25 of the time I'm not sure if I was the FED I'd be looking at it going. hey, the action is happening.

I Don't think you need to go and start reducing rates straight away, but you can go and sit on it. You can go and sit on it. Wait another, uh, two months because remember, the March committee meets after just after the February data comes out for Uh, which is in mid-march Then we have a month and a half until the next committee meeting. But there's only one update.

so they have one more update that will confirm. We'll probably get another hold after that if the dates continues doing what it's doing. but then we're going to be cycling. Uh, the one year period over here when Energy prices went absolutely bananas over here.

Look at the gas prices during this period, look at the June prices. and at this point, the downward pressure from energy is going to be very substantial. And the reason is going to be substantial is energy directly only has an eight percent of their Abios contribution to the CPI directly and I know that they tried to strip it out from other things, but it just energies are just a critical component of manufacturing things, of transporting goods, of being able to sell goods and shops. All of these different things.

So depending on who you listen to, some people say it's eight to ten percent on top of its direct contribution indirectly through the prices of everything else. you're probably talking about about 18, maybe 17 of the total index really being based on the price of N energy. And if Energy prices start coming down significantly, if they start going being significantly negative, that's going to be an 18 of the total index being way downwards by that amount. Shelter might still be high by that point because it just doesn't have enough time to go and recover because it's got so much catching up to do.

But we're going to be sitting there looking at it going. Oh wait wait, inflation has come down again because remember, we have the March committee meeting. then we have the late April I think it is, but then I think we have two more uh CPI updates before the one after that and I think a lot of people are going to be massively surprised once again, when at that point we might be in a position when inflation and the rates are kind of closely matched. We might be in a position where unfathomable as it may be, people will start going saying how could it be possible how could the FED reduce rates in 2023 I Thought 2023 was going to be the worst year in the history and I'm sitting here going well at the moment if I had to bet I'm not a Gambling Man but if I had to bet I'll be saying hey, the most probable like the median probability scenario in my head is that we're going to be seeing a rate reduction starting this summer because inflation we kind of see where where it's kind of headed.

No, anything can happen between now and then. The 2020s are a bit of a up kind of decade. You know, we've had Covid, we've had this war in Ukraine who knows what's coming next I don't know. Maybe China's going to go and fight a war.

Maybe the Us is going to go and fight a war I don't anything can happen at the moment. Literally anything so or it's impossible to make any kind of firm predictions. Um, and I'm not gonna bother. but in terms of trying to understand where this is sort of trending, I'm sitting here going well that in terms of where the economy is headed the moment, um, the the FED that the FED does this pivot that nobody expects, everyone's probably going to be sitting there going.

Okay, so hang on. So employment remained ridiculously strong. So people are still in jobs, people are still earning money, People are able to afford to pay their bills. which is, you know, a pretty good outcome in the grand scheme of things.

Um, people are able to go and buy Goods Companies are able to sell Goods People Companies are earning money. The sort of recessionary feel. Maybe there. Maybe there's going to be a bit of a drop in demand like we're already seeing already.

Seeing with higher ticket items like cars, there's definitely a drop in demand. Every car manufacturer is suffering. Some car manufacturers are suffering more than others. Um, but we're going to be seeing the same thing with other sort of mid-level mid-tier luxury goods, not the super high premium stuff.

Whether people don't really care about inflate inflationary and recessionary impacts, and we're probably not going to be seeing the same impact as you know, Um, Goods that are basic living needs and things like that, we're going to be seeing some some kind of effect. However, overall, if you look at the picture, inflation's coming down, which is going to improve the people's ability to go and buy things. Sure, prices are not coming down, just the rate of inflation is coming down. The two are not the same thing, right? So inflation is the rate at which things are increasing.

So if inflation is coming down, prices are still going up, just not as fast as they used to, but it is heading in the right direction. All the while, some people will continue getting pay increases the moment real wages are lagging inflation. It may well be that in three, four, five months time that flips, because real wages are probably going to continue increasing at the same sort of rate they are while inflation coming down, and we may see a reversal of that effect. And at that point, suddenly everyone is prophesizing the worst crash that's ever happened.

You know something really impossibly bad is going to happen this year. What is the driver? The thing is, when you look at historical data, you go and look at I Don't know. Whatever it is. Um, I Don't have it over here.

But you look at what happened. Um, during the financial crash. Over here, you look what happened. You know, to the stock market.

during the.com crash. There were really major fundamental financial problems with the way the market was operating and those problems had to be rectified in a very ugly sort of way. At the moment, There's a lot of factors. A lot of microeconomic factors that are affecting the economy.

A lot of factors that are affecting people's ability to spend Etc But we don't necessarily have a one big bad actor that has to be destroyed and rebuilt or played out. We don't have You know the same problems that we had in 2008 with the banking sector. We don't have the same problems that we had with. Some people may argue.

some people will probably argue and I'm sure in the comments a lot of people. I'm sorry I'm not I'm not able to read every single comments I'm talking about I'm sure some people argue that at the moment there's a huge over evaluation bubble I don't and agree with that I didn't think that that is necessarily the case here. I Think the way that companies were valued based on having absolutely zero Revenue back then was very different. Sure today we do have some areas like in EV stocks and some Innovative energy stocks Like this chat GPT thing came out and is immediately worth 30 billion dollars apparently.

um Etc I think I think I make a video about that I think people are getting again slightly over excited and using things for the wrong intentions. just just like with everything else. But anyway. um my my take on it is is this: let me just go and stick my face on the camera am I taking this I'm looking at going all the data is looking great.

I'm not seeing a bad actor that has to be wiped out I'm seeing stocks that have already lost a very significant amount of value. So the S P 500 is down. whatever it is 18. I Don't know what the actual number is, Um, roughly.

Uh, and it was a little bit lower. Until recent new one, we had a little bit of a run-up. Many of the tech stocks are down 40, 50, 60, sometimes 70 or even 80 depending which um which it is and it doesn't really matter. Some of them are not good value.

I'm not saying that every company that has lost value is going to go back up. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is a lot of the good companies because every company's gone down. It doesn't really matter.

The good stocks have gone down, the bad stocks have gone down, Everything's gone down by exactly the same factor. Well, not exactly the same, but everything's been completely destroyed, especially in the growth and early stage uh sectors because of the macro effects. Nothing to do with the fundamentals of the companies, Nothing to do with the projections on what those companies future business will look like. In fact, over the last year and a half two years while this has been happening, many of these companies have grown to be a much better business.

Their revenues have grown, their profitability has grown, their balance sheets have improved, they've paid down debt, whatever it may be, but at the same time the valuations have collapsed and the valuations collapse. Not because people's perceptions are what the long-term Outlook is different. Uh, the valuations collapse because people foresee a a a more volatile period ahead, People suddenly think that there's definitely going to be a crash. The crash is definitely going to be the worst thing ever.

We kind of had a crash last year. sort of. I mean I Know that people will say technically you know this many percent is a crash and there's many percent is aggression You You can go and discuss that somewhere else. We had a pretty big drop in the stock market last year.

We had a uh, precursor to that the year before in anything that was earlier stage and smaller stocks and growth stocks and things like that. I'm looking at going well. a lot of these companies are going to bounce back. I Don't know when it could be in a few weeks when we see the March results and we see the FED going and doing a much smaller increase and like everyone's expecting, maybe everyone's already baking that in I Don't know.

Maybe it's going to happen in the summer. Maybe it's going to happen in two or three years time? It doesn't really matter. I Don't know where the stocks are going to go. The stocks could go a whole lot lower.

You know it's possible. My take is not to try to go and guess where the stocks are going to be in two weeks. Or in two months or in three months I Don't give a I am looking at a stock and I'm going saying what is my fair expectation on the value of that company What do I think over the next 10 years the median or the like reasonable estimation of what a company is going to do is I place my own value. You can usually place your own value.

You we don't have to agree I don't really care. Uh, that's not the point I'm making the point I'm making is you go and decide what you think the fair value of the company is based on doing your own valuation model based on doing your own. DCF However, you go and like do it you go and then compare that to today's price. And it might take when many of these companies are trading in valuations that are several times lower, which is somewhat unusual, several times lower than what I think their fair value is I'm looking at going.

This is a great time to invest because if you go and look at any other crash in history like here's the.com crash, people go and say oh, look if you go and look at NASDAQ right here here's NASDAQ If you go and look at NASDAQ You know from the peak over here just before the.com crash, it took 15 or 16 years or whatever before it break even. That's not how investing works because we're not at the peak, we're somewhere down here if the same exact curve plays out. So if the same plays out all the money you're investing on the way down has considerably shorter time scales on the way up. And if you are investing during this period where you know some people will probably be saying hey, we're still going to go even further down blah blah blah just like they are today, because nobody actually knows the money you're going to be investing over here.

The bottoms is going to be getting you an even stronger return. And that's how that's the beauty of long-term investing if you're actually doing it for the right reasons. and this is obviously the average of the market. If you're investing in companies that outperform the market, most people won't.

But if you go and invest in companies, then you're gonna get an even bigger effect on that. And I'm looking at companies where, um, a few months ago, maybe a year and a half ago, two years ago, you'd be looking at something. You'd be saying hey, my take is this company is 40 unvalued or my take is that this company is 60 or 70 of the value and I was making videos about many stocks where I was like hey, I think this is pretty good I think a company that is 47 of the value is good because on average there is a potential upside to be had and when that upside comes through, you are able to go and make some money. But now we're looking at these same companies with same or in many cases, better fundamentals.

We're looking at the same, um, companies in terms of the same management. They're doing the same products. In many cases, their customer numbers have grown. Everything about the company is better.

But now instead of having a 40 or 50 website, you're looking at going. Oh, there's a 300 upside or a something. something equally ridiculous. And I'm looking going do I sit here trying to time the market to try to eat that extra bit because that's what everyone on YouTube and Twitter seems to want to tell you to do.

Because of course, that's exactly the way that you make a shitload of money. And over the last year and a half, we have seen perfect examples all over every single influencer who's been doing this of them. absolutely getting it wrong, losing a whole load of money in the process and playing stupid put games even even that whatever is called the third biggest investor in Tesla Whatever. Admitted recently that he doesn't actually hold shares with most of the money he's been paying, playing stupid options games and asked Tesla stock price collapsed to well below the 160 that he was playing at.

He's lost a shitload of money because he's the general Gambler as well and he's been blaming Elon He's been blaming Tesla he's been playing Market been blaming everything except for himself. The reason that he's lost money, the reason that all of these other clouds have lost money is because they're all trying to play games to outperform the market by orders of magnitude. They're like I am gonna go and sell options. Buy options I'm gonna go and try to make quick plays I Know for sure that the stock market is going to be valued at this much on this date, or this particular company is going to be evaluated as much on this particular date for no reason whatsoever.

It's just gambling. Nobody knows what the price of any particular company is going to be be in three months, or in one month, or in four weeks, or whenever the auction expires. So if you're buying all of these things, you are just gambling. Sure, we can talk about all these macro environment situations or different factors and variables.

We can go and make guesstimates on what the long-term value of the company is, but in the short term none of that matters. In the short term, absolutely anything can happen. The market can stay irrational for way way, way longer than uh, most most people expect and we have seen how little uh people have in terms of patience. Over the last few months, we've seen how people go and completely collapse and capitulate to go and sell all their stock at the bottom.

so we've seen plenty. Four examples of people selling: Tesla at 100 at 110 in the last few weeks, there's some kind of I'm not following this stuff, but there's some kind of popular YouTuber and Twitter personality. You sold out everything because their dad invested in Tesla and lost a load of money or something and they sold all the stock. There's just all these endless stories.

And it's funny because when we talk about this, when we talk about all of this stuff, we're going to make these anecdotal claims. We go and say, oh my goodness, you know why would somebody buy stocks at the peak and sell at the bottom and it's like a joke. Right when you go and sit back from the reality and you say you're like, well, of course nobody would do it but then you go and watch it and back end of 2020, everyone was buying all of these stocks. Everyone was buying all of these stocks at like ridiculously insane prices.

Um, and suddenly now that all the stocks have lost a load of money, everyone's selling and everyone's telling you to sell, every personality on YouTube is telling you to sell. And by the way, somebody's saying yeah, Leo K owns millions of shares to you. Yeah, I'm not saying all of his shares are in options. What I'm saying is it came out and transpired uh, during some of the Tweet uh stuff that he was actually gambling a huge portion of it rather than being an outright shareholder which is what he was intimating before.

Um, anyway, so the end point is inflation data came in great. Employment data is great and those are the two variables that the FED is trying to control through. the third variable which is the rate which they have direct control over and they're able to manage. everything's headed in the right direction.

I'm looking at going. Everything is looking kind of good. Everyone else seems to be looking and going. Oh my goodness.

Oh no. The whole economy is going to collapse and you might as well sell everything now because you know timing. The market is the obvious way to make money. But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

Maybe everyone, maybe everyone else is right. Uh, we shall live to find out what what actually happens. Um, in the long run and let's come back to this in 10 years. But thank you very much for joining me.

I Really appreciate it I apologize I Wasn't able to go and read everyone's comments I was just too busy sharing my views. uh I'm gonna go make a few more videos in the next few days to try to explain some of these Concepts that I was just talking about in a bit more detail. Thank you so much for watching I Really, really appreciate it and as always I'll see you guys later.