What's going on guys welcome back to the channel appreciate you guys tuning in, we have a really good video for you today live recording of the spy in the nasdaq, except today i recorded the whole entire day, so we got a lot more uh data to run Through than we typically would so i figure before we get into that video for you um, i would at least post or show you this picture. This was the nasdaq. This morning you can kind of see where some of these prices are at and these levels were - and this will kind of give some context as the way i was viewing the market before it opened. So this is the only picture i put on the twitter day and just basically said: market long won't work until acceptance above 341.73 and you will see 341.73.

So that's the reasoning why i was suggesting that price point and then for one. The long won't work because again, if you just think we're in a downtrend downtrend, look where the most recent bounce was here. Look where the most recent snap was here so realistically. Anybody who bought this dip is now kind of back to break even potentially selling.

In this top, and so just in general, you can't really expect a big swing, long move unless the market was over that - and that was my idea all right. So now, let's jump into the actual recording here again just going to hit play fast forward through talk about all some of the main talking points um. So before we get started actually hitting play um. Oh, it looks like i recorded yeah anyways all right.

So it looks like i actually had started on forward, slash es just so you could see um. This is the futures market and so a lot of times. These lines are going to look a little off little spaces and whatnot, because the the market isn't open. Yet um on the spy, whereas the the futures market trades, obviously most of the time.

So therefore, this level is already there and long story short. That's why the market's topping here? But you don't really see this line being extended, yada, yada, so anyways. Nonetheless, let's uh get to it, so you can see right. Look where the forward slash es stops.

You know that four three price look with the spy stopping about four three: seven ish, four, three: four: seven then, into this kind of market open. You see the market sells off that all right, and so at this point, we're looking at the spy and the nasdaq. Now, all right, so we're going to kind of fast forward through um, so you see market opens well. First things: first market runs up to those top statistical levels.

We then sell down. We get fairly close to that 3371 deviation, not quite but nonetheless, market squeezes up, and where does it go on the nasdaq right to its first deviation? Up from here, i think we pop through yeah, so we pop through the first deviation on the nasdaq all right and then you will see the spy finally catches up and hits its deviation around 434. 434. 27.

You will see this is maybe where we get a little pullback, so you see how the nasdaq pulls back. There ready see the nasdaq pulling back. That's because the spy ready hit its deviation. You see that so because the spy and the nasdaq have both kind of surpassed, their deviation actually rephrase that.

So you see the spy actually starts to pop again when the nasdaq breaks ready, see how the nasdaq breaks its deviation and then the spy pretty much just goes straight up to its deviation right. So it's kind of like that strength of the nasdaq breaking out there that helps increase the price of the spy up to its deviation. So at this point we get a little pull back off that i believe right. So just a smidge of one right, but the reason you see that little pull back there on the nasdaq is because you are getting that little pullback.

It's obviously happening because of the spy deviation around 4. 30. 4. 28..

All right continue forward. You'll see the market pushes up it's a little bit more um and then we eventually pull back right and then we go under and um anyways. But let me before we go too quickly. Um, you know this is something you're going to have to play around with to get better at, but you know the way i see it is once the spy breaks that deviation once the nasdaq already broke.

Its first deviation on the up: that's a breakout, so the nasdaq broke out and the spy just broke out so theoretically any pullback that the market does from this point right if it starts to pull back, you never know exactly when it's going to happen. You know it could go a little further and then it comes back, but the concept is is since we broke that that deviation, it's a breakout, and so if, in two seconds later the market starts to pull back right, the first thought is well: this pullback can Go to here right, it could go below it, but for sure, if this is a breakout, i just anticipate that's where the pullback is going to go, because we need to retest the breakout right. So you will see that that's pretty much what happens on the spy? You see, we just fall straight back to that line and we go below it right and now, if you look at the right, you'll see that the nasdaq it's not quite back to its breakout level right. So the market sells down a little further, taking the spy below the deviation until the nasdaq hits its deviation, and this is where we get our like bounce.

You can see how the market's starting to bounce, so that would be a pullback retesting that breakout in a way and you'll see that's where the market kind of pops up a little bit from there. So it's like, if you're looking for scalp longs off pull backs. You know you try to be around some of those areas, so anyways people popping in pushes up um and it looks like there's a fade under. I know it does at some point right, um and then also you know before we go too quickly here see how the market um right so think about it like this, so the market on the spy breaks down.

That's a re-test of that breakdown. Some people may have added short there, but either way it breaks up, and you can see that the next aggressive pop on the spy happens as control takes place through that that level. So look really closely right. So market pops up people maybe sell off it regardless.

We kind of dabble on it we break up through we pull right back down, that's a retest buyers, hold buyers, hold buyers, hold pop, then look at where this move on the spy goes almost all the way back to or up to that top deviation. At 4, 35 80 ish right about there all right and then from this point we start to pull back um. Also, there's this level, which is a 50 retrace from the previous trading day, but that's called the hcr anyways, so you'll see we pull back and we'll just fast forward here. All right now we're starting to get acceptance back below so think about all the people that dip bought this the nasdaq there so on this right.

So on this dip, look at the nasdaq now screen on the right, so you see how the market are. Excuse me not the market, but people buying off that level right and arguably v web right, so like deviation down to v web people did buying up right. So you know, what's going to happen is if that level doesn't hold. Obviously, all those dip buyers are going to become sellers.

Everyone in the market is just you know. Every buyer is eventually going to become a seller right. So you can see the next aggressive snap on the market happens through that line and arguably the v web right. So you see boom right.

So is it because you're breaking the v web? Is it because you're breaking the deviation? Is it because people are people had previously bought at that price? It's all of those things right. Some people don't look at deviations. Some people look at view app. Only some people look at higher low setups.

You know it doesn't really matter at the end of the day, what a market participant does to convince himself to get into the market, but all said and done, checks and balances. That participant has entered volume to the market right and all buyers at some point are just going to become a seller, so you have volume that whatever reason entered into the market on that pullback, so, however, you want to define the reasons why that's always up to You, but at the end of the day, all those participants decided to join in on the party at that level. So obviously, it's not really a surprise as to why you snapped down here, because you know there's there were buyers there, so you're, potentially taking out all those dip buyers from just right there. Okay, so we'll fast forward, continue all right! You're gon na see the market sell down and at this point right, if the market is selling down right from here, you know, let's say you're like i want to do a dip buy um, let's say you're like i want to get short well, there's a couple Ways to look at this well for one if you're gon na get short, then your risk would be back over the 340 129 all right and if you're going to get short, your target down right now would probably be low a day, because that's a 337 80 Deviation so we're talking about the nasdaq here right if you wanted to get short, this is your risk, and that theoretically is a target, and the reason i say theoretically is because you know you could go further than that.

But it's saying if you want a visual representation of areas where you could possibly go on the chart, here's one of them right, so you know that it's not extremely bullish until you get back over that because we just broke that down. So, for whatever reason, people are buying there they're now selling there. So obviously we shouldn't really expect some great bullish move unless minimum we're maintaining over that. Okay, so continue forward um.

Where does the nasdaq go see how it sells down to the green line? And it starts to bounce. What do you know so again now think about like this? Why not buy this dip right? The one that's like kind of happening on the nasdaq right, so why not buy this all right? Why not buy this one? Here i mean dude. There's there's ways to make money in every single scenario, but you know, like my rationale, for not buying that dip is because i know that statistical probabilities are just below. So it's like.

If i wanted a stronger support. I know there's probably one below which is right. There, okay, now it's not a guarantee that the market would not bounce here right. The market doesn't have to go down to the deviation.

It could very well have bounced here and i've seen that happen many times, but i've also shared the market many times and know that you can get caught in this, whereas if you just wait, you can get that right and from here you go okay! Well, since we bought off the deviation, we obviously know clearly below this is not good, whereas if you're buying here, you still run the risk of going to here before you meet other participants, maybe like me that are willing to buy or some computer algorithm, that's willing To buy per se, okay, so that's why i'd be taking in off the deviation as opposed to uh the previous little dip hold. If you may, because to me, that's not a true support at the end of the day, it could be one, but you know it's just everyone's approach so from here your next big cell is going to happen, obviously through the low a day spot at that three. Three: seven: six: seven: why? Because again, as we said, for whatever reason people are buying into that price, i know why they did buying into that price. But people are people are participating in the market there.

So obviously, as markets go back down through that, any of the people that we're buying there can get shaken out anyways continue forward all right. You see the market like trying to hold there and i don't remember exactly what happens, but all right so now on a very minuscule scale. Think about it. We were holding this green level on the nasdaq as a support and the only reason i'm not talking about the spies, because we're not really at any key levels for right now, but um anyways.

You see we break down this green level here on the the nasdaq, and so when you break that down or go below it, what is that? That's a breakdown right, so every candle back up is a retest of a breakdown. Now see how people are entering bearish off the green line and that's a win right, and so that's some way people enter into the market. You see that pops right back to it. People enter in off that green line, all right and so um.

Obviously, there's more to it than that, but you know there you go so that's your new deviation break now. I'm not saying that this would have been an easy trade to convince you to get in to catch this move right. Sometimes you can take these and then they're just going to pop right back up on you right, um, so not saying that's exactly! I want to participate, but just kind of showing the finite granular uh perspective on the market, all right, so now that the spy is kind of doing some stuff well actually, this is this is good right. So so we go down to the green line on the net or the nasdaq right, and so, if you look at the spy you're like well, there's no levels here right.

So you know here's the deal once this gives way on the nasdaq. The next level's down on the nasdaq would be down to this area. Okay, so well, if the nasdaq well, that's the thing is like: is the market really going to sell all the way from here to there or is it more likely the market might break here and then we'll see the spy run down closer to 426 right? So you see the market snaps and where does the spy go? Spy goes down to 426., so i wouldn't have been really trying to buy this dip, probably or trying to really buy that dip on the market. If i want to buy this falling knife on the spy, i probably would have rather try it here, not because this is the gap fill in the market from pre-market, not because this is the pre-market low.

It's because there's a statistical probability level here and since this level is here, that's the reason the pre-market low was set in there right. This is the reason for the pre-market low so again, not that it's the pre-market low that i want it's. The fact that we have statistical probabilities here so now that we fast forward in a little bit, let's see if we can get a bounce there, i'm not even sure, there's an attempt there. You go so like a little fight.

You know, but if you think about the bounces, you were getting this one. If you like again, if you're trying to catch a falling knife, think about the bounces, you were getting compared to like that one. So obviously, arguably this is a better, a better, a better shittier bounce than these two right. So that's part of that rationale as to like you know, i probably wouldn't try to catch that falling knife unless minimum it was probably at that level, and you know this doesn't work well, but if you kind of scale in - and you know you manage your trades - You know somewhat decent.

You probably could have been fine and made money on that even with it coming back down right. So that's just all practice and stuff. Now, with this bounce, all right so now here's something else to understand all right. So the most recent breakdown was here in the market all right.

This is the most recent bounce because of this level. So if we're thinking well, how big can this bounce go? How far can this go? I would not trade the so. The reason for entering the market per se would be this level 426.53. Now you would not at least me um.

If i was entering this long and i bounced this market up, i would not look to stay in this position because of the falling knife any longer on this bounce, then back up to this price on the nasdaq remember this is a breakdown we could very well Come back and retest it again right! So if the market truly is going to bounce here, then i will only try to bounce the market back up to that price and then, let's see what these sellers have to say about it again. Okay, so continue on right. Oh there i didn't even know, i really did not know that was gon na happen, like that i did not, but okay, that works all right. So there you go.

That's that's the idea all right. So if i was going to enter long off this bottom, i would not look to be anything longer than that price, because that's the most recent break out to the downside in the market: breakouts love to retest themselves, okay, so, side, note! If you go short here and you chase this down, it could keep going for forever, but in the event it doesn't that's your risk. Hence the idea calculate risk understand risk. It's not that your trades won't work sometimes and go amazing right.

It's the fact that if you don't understand what your problem probabilistic risk is, then you could run into a lot of issues which believe me, i've done plenty of times and that's why i'm here and that's why i'm showing you all this stuff over so many years Of practicing learning and trading and winning and losing - and you know all that good stuff, so this is what it is um so you'll see the markets pretty much just pops right back up to that price on the nasdaq. Now, look at there's no price level here, as defined by statistics on the spy, and actually i could probably create one to find one, but just based on what we're looking at here right. There isn't anything there, but why does it stop? Because you just ran into resistance okay, so you see in this case that would be a good entry for a short and it would be a good entry to a good exit to take profit right. So if you were understanding how this market could function, you literally could have bought this dip sold, that top sold.

That or yeah bought this dip sold atop and then entered short here, which i've done sometimes not very easy, because you literally have to change your bias. So fast, and that can be very hard psychologically, but you can do it if you really master it um. So you see the market kind of goes back up, pushes off that level and there we go down again: okay, um now anyways we'll get to it. Oh, what time? Oh this is later in the day: okay cool! Now, i'm not saying you would want to short that specific one.

So that's the thing is like it depends on where the market's at, but if but the concept here is right, um is it's more or less just a retest of that short level, but like this is obviously the one you'd want to be bearish off of right. That break and that move right, but there is many times where, like this big bounce will get rejected again and it will continue down all right, but um. Here's the deal! Okay, you see where the market snaps up right. Basically, right here look at where my cursor's at right there on the nasdaq right, so we pop right there that's a shift in demand right, so there are bearish traders that enter short off that i've done it trying to continue to move down.

Sometimes it'll work. A lot of times it may not just depends but you'll see that this pullback sorry right here some people enter short, try to keep the market going down. Some people are just selling off that bounce move, but this pullback is right back into the that immediate shift. In demand and a lot of times, that's what's going to create your higher low and bounce right and now you'll see where the big squeeze takes place is when you get through this level right and the reason why is this: was the breakdown people, shorted people shorted And now, when you successfully get through boom, you take them out.

Okay, and it's not always going to look like this. You know different circumstances but for sure that's kind of the point now when you break up and through the deviation on the nasdaq here, where does it go to you hit the v app there? But what do you think you're really going to? I mean you're going towards view app, but you see that 339 18 deviation there. It is now look at where the next big pop is through that price, because that's another statistical level that people are shorting off of here. Again, that's a breakdown, so people are adding short right.

So that's another level where shorts are known to be at and so they get taken out. Then where's the market go to the next level up, and this is where you end up getting. I think some selling pressure - okay, okay, now remember when you broke over this deviation - that was a breakout to the upside. What do breakouts like to do? They'd like to re-test the breakout? Okay, there's a re-test of the breakout? Okay, that's why the market's kind of trying to hold up a little bounce there.

Now you just broke through the level okay! So now that's a breakout to the downside. Now how well it treats it's all you know depends but anyways and then you'll see the market sells all the way down to the next green one, and then this is where you actually bounce boom and then once you bounce, where do you go back to the Next deviation up so on so forth, um and that's pretty much today's video for you guys um. I hope you guys oh yeah, another thing really quickly. So the reason we bounce so hard uh, sorry, the reason we bounced so hard here, all right that one is because think about it.

This was a big breakdown. People are getting bearish, adding short, adding short, adding short squeezed big demand spot right there right. So that's a really big demand shift through that level and now, and did we ever go back to retest that breakout no pull back retest breakout boom, high or low, so this higher low here sorry, this higher low here - is that one sorry that that higher low Boom, it's the same thing as this one here, except there's. No deviation level to say was going to be a bounce.

You just have to go on previous shifting price demand. Okay, so this was a big shift. Sorry that was a big shift in demand and that's a retest of big shifts in demand. This is a bigger trendier shift in demand, and that is the retest of the demand boom.

All right, ladies and gentlemen, i hope you guys enjoyed that video. I will see you guys in the next one: take care.