What's going on guys welcome back to your midday market update, i've already tried to make this video before, but then the audio didn't work, and then i just tried to make it again, but then i was being too confusing. So then i had to restart it again. So this would be the third attempt at making this video. I would do my absolute best to try to be as unconfusing or least confusing as possible, while making the most amount of sense.

Well, forgetting nothing all right, let's go so! If you haven't already, i would suggest to watch today's video, not because i want to make more money on youtube and adsense. That would be great, but it really will tie into this video pretty good. So what i will first do for those that don't want to stick around and waste your time just know you have the possibility of seeing a spy all the way to 474 473.50 and the qqq's maybe down to as low as 397.. Nonetheless, i am already already bought along the market here today watching the markets long into this area.

This is the area where i would like to see the markets maybe get to, but still be watching long out of that zone and i'll explain why in a bit. So if you did watch today's video on the spy um, these levels would have looked a little different, so this blue line here was actually down to like here, it's updated since then, but just know from when i first posted the video. This morning, the market looked like that and all we're doing is trading a channel back and forth between these two levels and i'll explain what those levels are in just a bit. Okay, you will see that we broke down that level held resistance, etcetera, etcetera.

So really what's going on is overnight into this morning the market was on what we call, in my opinion, a six-month resistance. This level right here was a one-year monthly support. Okay, this level down here, which we haven't touched, would be a. I think.

It's a weekly level, yeah, that's going to be a weekly one year, okay, so today the market, when i zoom in really just did a couple things it it traded up, broke its monthly level pushed to the sixth month, pulled back to the monthly push to the Sixth month pulled back to the monthly, then it just ripped and finally broke down below the monthly okay. So a couple people today could have easily looked at this market and said: hey. We have a inverse cup and handle pattern here, i'm going to trade that breakdown! Okay, just as easily as someone could have said hey, this is a descending like wedge or like a bearish descending triangle pattern. I'm going to get short on the breakdown either or works.

For me, that's fine! I don't really think any one of those would be wrong. I think the other thing that would be good to mention is just whether or not you saw it as a descending triangle. Bearish move or whether you just saw maybe like an inverse bearish cup and handle curl. Whether you just said this is getting weak.

The breakdown level was the same for all of them. The breakdown was the monthly. So it's almost like you don't even have to draw your your pattern on the downside here for the for the descending triangle thing you could just do that and go okay. We're down! Trending right once the market opens puts in a little high there or d starts trending down a little bit.

You go. Okay, maybe we're trending this way and if we take out the monthly we're going to be bearish, that would be a bearish monthly break. Now. Market breaks down bounces back to the monthly.

This would be the retest of the monthly breakdown you could re-add short and then you'd be fading, the short for the day off the monthly breakdown. Okay, so that's what's happened. We traded up to a six month. We finally broke down the monthly and we ripped down now.

The only piece of this puzzle that really isn't on this chart is how why did we bottom there? Now you could look left and go. We bottom because of whatever that is, maybe the correct way to do it, maybe not the correct way to do it, maybe the best way, maybe not the best way. I don't know but i'll show you. What i would do so today would help me predict that bottom, specifically on the spy, not that i really cared to figure out when the spy would bottom, but nonetheless, i have just opened up a chart on the qs all right which, before we do this, i'm Going to delete this level, so you know i'm just not just adding this at random will so i'm going to bring this chart over.

So this is a chart of the qqq. This is a six month chart! Okay, you see this level right here. Let me zoom in you see that trend line priced at like 399.98, which actually updated earlier. It was a little lower, but anyways you see how it's there at 399.88, but you see nothing here.

That's because we're looking at an intraday chart and that level isn't being calculated onto that that time frame. But if i simply just do it myself, like this where's, the trend line coming for the for the qqq, it comes in at 399.47 which, by the way it was actually right here earlier. It was down there, but it's updated since then, so pretty much the absolute low of day for this for the qqq ended up being a six-month trend. So the same thing that topped the spy today end up being the bottom, thus far for the qqq.

But if you look at the spy there is no trend line. There is no nothing here and believe me, it's not like. I forgot to add it there. Just isn't one.

It just doesn't exist that way for the spy today. So there is nothing statistically speaking, that regards my strategy, things that i would use for predicting moves, and it doesn't matter there's nothing there for the spy today it doesn't exist. So how would i know that once i'm in a short player, maybe if i am short and i'm breaking this market down, how would i know to stop out or or just cover what not or get out or how would i know to potentially buy that reversal? Bounce without any confirmation or whatever, maybe i could simply go and look at the spy and go. You know what the spy has gotten down to its six month.

Statistical support. We could very well bounce here so instead of being bearish, because this thing has already knifed to all hell, instead of being bearish, because it's already knifed to all hell and we're on a potential support. I'll just be optimistic that we might be able to reverse the market, so it was a way my brain was kind of working today. So if i could just go over things quickly, the way the market traded was the spy is what determined the resistance for the day off 478, which is what kept you know qqq's at 403, which that's a lie, because it's stocks in the stock market that are Selling down and not performing well that are preventing these indices from going higher, but the way that i rationalize the market um would just be that the spy had resistance at 478.

That's why the key? That's why qqq's are stopping where they're stopping then the spy had monthly support here, and that was basically our over under breakdown level for the day or no sorry. I was our over under on sort of a short move for the day, and so you will see that that's pretty much when the cues break down when when spy breaks down okay and then you will see that the spy bounces when the cues get to their Support so today's market structure and trading, the only way i can rationalize the movements of both indices together and predicting them both the way that works for me would would be using the spies six month, monthly and the qqq's. In this point, maybe it's uh six months for support so um. I hope that wasn't confusing.

I hope you guys all understand that now. What i'll do is just take a little step back and show you what we've got, what we're seeing, if we kind of zoom out some so now, that's all very finite intricate detail in trading. But now, let's look at say like now: maybe like a 30 day 10 minute, so looking at a 30-day 10-minute chart here. What is you know? Maybe the pattern that we're starting to see.

So we have had a big move up. We have then kind of you know, maybe pulled back some here and we kind of went up and pulled back some here and then we kind of went up and now we're pulling back some here. So now we have a big old head and shoulders that if it takes out this support, which, by the way, i don't even think that's support right and the reason i say that and the reason that i say it's not really support is because to me this Is where the support's at we'll see you know, sometimes they do hold up and they don't go to the levels i'm thinking about, but the reason i say to myself that this isn't really support is because just the other day, you see how the blue lines up Here, okay, well, the other day, the blue line was here right. So now you know why we pulled back and bounced here now.

You know why we pulled to here and bounced here right. Actually, the other day, the the the monthly was right here but um before we had levels that were kind of coming into play right around there. So there was a reason for the markets to pull back and bounce. There was a reason for the market to pull back and try to sustain and bounce, but today we're below that level right we broke down and we're holding below.

So there isn't one of those support levels until on the spy we get to here, or vice versa. Qqq, which we already did hit this morning, okay, so you can see there there. It is there's a support trend this morning, all right so now, what's left in the market, what i could see the the the fight being is: there are people that are bearish this market because of this, this head and shoulders rolling fashion. We bounced the six months today at 399.75, if we're going to go lower on the qs or even the spine.

We need to get down below this trend line. Okay, so there is no bearish sell-off. That's going to continue happening aggressively until you get below 399.76 now and in the event that actually happens, and it does kick start, let's say a halfway decent pullback sell-off again. You would then really only look for this rolling over sell-off move to go down to this level, okay, which, by the way you'd have to take out the previous demand.

Okay, if you look at the chart, right look look at it this way too. If we put this on, say a five day, five minute, which you know maybe doesn't do as as much justice right, but when you think about this chart, you know where people dip bought people all dip, bought this location right so like that area is where they Dip bought, you know, where's the line, the lines right there. So you already know it's it's not like it's a seeker right. You know everyone bought this bottom, so you're like yeah clear.

If we can go through that bottom, it's going to sell off right. It's a no-brainer right. We all know where a sell-off can happen once a bottom's been put in and we can see where buyers are at wait. We know if we go through those buyers, they'll sell out right.

We know that what it's hard to know is where the first buying will come in right. How do you catch that per se? So we do know that it's this level that, in the event we're going to see this market move in there we'd have to take out that level. I think the markets are just a little optimistically bullish, so nonetheless, i think you should still be watching long bias into that dip. We have a strong market.

I really don't see the market going below this and selling off. If it does we'll know it when it happens, because the market will come down here, it will be below those levels and bouncing back into and holding below. So as long as we are above all of these levels, we're not really that bearish. So i hope that helps.

I hope you guys learned something new from that. Video and i'll see you guys in the next one.