Closing Live stream: Market is in absolute rally mode after the Fomc minutes. Some stocks are trading down, so it's not a 100 clear breadth. One of the things that's really shocking to me is that you actually have AMC up by 5.25 but you have Ape which was an eight dollar stock I Sold it for eight dollars I said this stock is going to get liquidated to Hell Stay away from it. It's a bad investment. I Got a lot of hate for saying that because we knew what it was established for liquidity would go down and we get destroyed. This thing uh is is down to a dollar and eighteen from eight dollars. It sounds six percent. Today, while AMC is rallying to me, this is actually a sign that you probably have AMC selling some of these to pick up. uh, some more Debt Pay down. Uh, especially since generally they they move in conjunction. not in almost complete opposites here. So a little bit strange change here. Carvana of 19, we're getting that real risk on. Move here. Uh Open Door up 17 percent. Uh Redfin Six percent. You know home sales actually came in a little bit higher. New home sales came in a little bit higher numerically. uh I Think this number personally is a little bit misleading and I'll dive into that a little bit. uh, more later. But uh, let me give you a short preview: Builders are liquidating homes so they're dumping prices to get rid of homes so that leads to higher sales volumes. Uh, especially for new construction Builders Who have to sell? That's something That's really important to remember about new construction numbers. But anyway, we'll talk about that a little bit more in detail later. Uh, one thing to pay attention to as well is uh, the the Crypto. Market Uh, What's interesting here is you got BTC at last I checked 16-4 sitting at 16-5 right now also moving up a little bit. Uh, but you've got debt over at Coinbase trading for like 50 cents on the dollar. still some severe 53.3 cents. Still some severe pain, especially since in January selling for a 92 cents now obviously yields have gone up. But every time you've gotten turmoil like Tara Luna and the FTX disaster, Coinbase's debt has traded down and uh, it's It's a little bit of a sign that the market is just extremely uncertain about the future of Crypto. How defensible is Crypto actually in an Institutional portfolio? These are things that are are yet to be determined, right? Uh, but absolutely, uh, some of the, uh, some some of the things that we want to pay attention to. so uh, obviously here phenomenal rally on uh Tesla uh, just continuing what we saw this morning this morning. I Posted a video talking about some of the bullish elements that we were seeing for Tesla Uh, obviously this is a stock that's hella oversold. Uh, I mean look at the weekly chart here. Okay, like you're not missing anything if you've been sitting out of Tesla and you're sad that you don't have Tesla right now because it's up 7 point eight percent. Don't like, Don't be like you're not. You didn't miss anything. That's what you missed if you weren't in Tesla stock. This pain right here, right? Pretty ugly channel. Uh, it would actually be very interesting. Let's let's see if we could draw some a couple trend lines here. Uh, uh. I Don't know how great how exact this is going to be because we've had this trend going for a while here. But what's what's fascinating is if we continue this on, it'll give us a little bit of a tell of of where maybe we have to break. Uh, let's see here. Yeah, so we kind of continue this trend. If we could break out of this channel that we have right here. oh man, that would be uh, that would be pretty bullish this Channel that I just made if I adjusted a tiny bit here, this is probably looking like a oh wow, we'd have to be above 250 again to really break out of this previous high sitting around 300 here. So you've got some work to do. Tesla Uh, very interesting. That sofa is being left behind on this rally here. Uh, this is, uh, obviously you know your classic Financial here. left behind only up three quarters of a percent. Uh and uh yeah, you know we were doing uh, some user Trend analysis this morning in the course member live stream. Remember, you get lifetime access to the courses and anytime I go live. Uh, in the course member live streams, you get access to those. Generally, it's every day the Market's open. Uh, it's remarkable. We're looking at the trends. The trends for Sofi were actually very, very positive. Uh and uh. You know, especially with some of the new high yields they're offering. So I'm a big fan of them. However, they they are. There are concerns over Sofi's uh, potential exposure to crypto. I Personally think those are relatively unfounded, but what are you gonna do? So, uh, you know. Roku Roku Moving up nicely as well. You're always going to generally see these risk assets move together pelotons. right when you see Peloton and Neo and Open Door Carvana move together. Uh, it's certainly a sign of of a risk on day, maybe some short covering. although short positioning hasn't been as large as you'd think. a lot of hedge funds increasing, leaving, uh, leaving more funding on the side in uh, cash positions and that increase in cash is actually something that is looked at is quite bullish because that increase in cash when when cash becomes trash again, which it will, uh, will will actually become uh, quite. um, uh I I think quite a Tailwind uh for the market and and be, uh, quite quite optimistic. So we'll see. So uh uh, let's see here. let's go ahead and jump on to earnings. Earnings, Earnings, Earnings. All right. So the earnings calendar that we have today is Wednesday We have pretty much nothing. Oh okay, all right. we had John Deere this morning, but they did very well. Uh, which is great. So okay, let's hop on over for a brief moment here. see what CNBC has to say? Meantime, Tesla Shares are popping as well. Today, the stock getting an upgrade to a neutral from a cell at City Analysts they are highlighting the Automaker strong positioning in the premium EV market and it's improved execution is some of the reasons. Meanwhile, closely watched. Morgan Stanley Analyst Adam Jonas Also out with a new note today Jonas reiterating his overweight rating on the stock, acknowledging the price is approaching his bear case scenario of 150 a share, but nonetheless, he's sticking with his price target of 330. Philippo joins us. Now, these are valuation calls this notion: the Tesla has gotten beaten down so much that maybe at this point we're pricing it a lot. Well, I think you're right Melissa these were not. If you read these notes, there was nothing in these notes that made you say I've got to go out and I've got to buy Tesla right now because it's Off to the Races This truly was In Both of these were were notes saying look, they're so beaten up you got to remember the fundamentals here. in terms of where Tesla is positioned within the EV market and then the other question becomes Melissa if you're an investor right now with Tesla where is the the next possible Catalyst you can look the next week when the company is expected to deliver to deliver the first Tesla semi truck. uh, that's supposed to happen on December 1st that delivery in and of itself is not huge. Yeah, what is significant is whether or not Elon Musk is at the delivery event and if he talks in a down market like this. Elon Musk talking is oxygen for Tesla investors. That is the kind of thing that they will look to and that potentially could move the stock higher or at least stabilize it after the brutal year that it's been going through. Yeah, I mean the problem is, you might be too busy over at Twitter looking through the supply closets at uh, right t-shirts that were left behind. uh, you know I Generally don't think of Tesla events or Elon talking ever as as a catalyst. If anything, I see them as a catalyst of a top. Tesla usually does poorly after earnings. Uh, it it does poorly After events Battery day, cyber truck event. uh oh gosh AI Day AI Day two: the stock does terribly after all these events so no, uh, the the what? what I do not want is another Tesla event. Keep the Tesla events away. We don't need any more events, just make cars and shut up. That's my take. We'll see if that pattern holds. Phil Thank you Bill Laboe You bet. Now let's check in on the market internals. Mike Yeah, most of they've improved. They started off about 50 50. Now overall volume levels, as you might imagine, are relatively light, but there is a more positive split in terms of the advancing versus declining volume here. not quite two to one, but uh, pretty close to it. Take a look at the financial sector, the XLF ETF is now up at a more than six month high. This takes you back to about Uh May 4th Uh, the last time we traded up around this 36 level, so higher yields at the same time that credit is holding together. Okay, a decent formula for this value group. The Volatility index has shown some downside. We're now under 21. it's bottom this year a couple of times at or just below 20.

very similar angle of decline as we saw from June to August so we'll see if it culminates in a similar way or not. All right Mike Thanks Uh, we'll give you four and a half minutes to, uh, get ready for the overtime at the top of there. We'll see you then. All right, let's turn now to retail shares of Nordstrom in the red after reporting earnings. Although pairing earlier losses, the retail are saying higher discounts are cutting into profitability. Meantime, we saw strong retail earnings this week from Best Buy Burlington That, by the way, is an example of not having pricing power if I have your break even sitting at 2.39 rotating down slightly. What's also very interesting though, right now is uh, oil? This whole Russian price cap talk did nothing here for oil today. Uh uh. You know I mean this morning it was green. Like substantially green on Russian price cap talks Because then we have a supply demand imbalance. Now all of a sudden they're red. Uh, it's It's a little messy. Uh, but um, it's it's It is good to see these go down, especially since we're gonna probably take I Would expect that the CPI measurement for oil and gas will be an average I Think it's an average of of the last, uh, 10 days of the month. Potentially you know, seven business days, or it's six business days or whatever it is. Um, but uh, this is good to see oil slide down four percent. Not so great seeing natural gas move up. This is going to be the big issue for China or for uh Europe. Obviously that could help push them into a little bit of a recession. Not so great. Uh, obviously the expectation is that Europe's economy is going to, uh, suffer a little bit more than he has here in the United States it's listening to Bloomberg for a moment. What can they do in terms of the balance sheet next year? and at what point do they start to hit on liquidity constraints? Because it's certainly something that we saw over in the UK with challenges of a different nature. But it was certainly informative for the FED in terms of what types of challenges we could hit next year. So that's a real question. Mark how much they can continue to do on the balance sheet. But I Think it's You know? we're fairly confident to say that we're probably not going to get back down to the level of balance sheet that we were before covid. All right, Mayor. Great to catch up with you and great to have you here. No way. Thanksgiving My expectation is their goal will be to go back to a trend. Uh, when you look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, it's actually quite interesting. Uh, the I Don't think the FED really ever intends to ever pay it off? Uh, when you look at the total assets over at the Fed and that's okay. as long as our economy is growing and we can afford The Debt Service payments. But uh, you look at this chart and it's quite scary just how high that debt is gone. You could see how it's slowly starting to Trend down there on the right side. Uh, uh. but um, do we actually think we're going to head back down to to these levels? Uh, 4.4 Trill Probably not. Uh, if we could head back to even six to six and a half, you know, a couple trillion dollars of quantitative tightening before they, uh, they flatten out again, probably be pretty decent. Uh I I Would expect that's probably where they would, uh, they would pause I Don't think they're going to try to vacuum out all of this money here. I I Don't believe that somebody here is asking for my clarification here on my 550 price target for Tesla that is a 2025 price Target Thanks for asking. Thanks for clarifying Market Open Friday Heck yeah Friday is Black Friday Oh, speaking of which, have I talked about Black Friday Or you know what's in the links down below. We got uh, one minute to go before the closing bell and let's go ahead and jump over to CNBC What is something else to remember is uh, manufacturing data came in pretty weak this morning. A lot of folks, uh, believe that was a pretty big Catalyst for us having any green at all today. Uh, before the uh minutes? those Pmis coming in week? Uh, pretty positive. let's listen in over here someone even at the end. In terms of fed whoops. certainly BJ is a very high quality name in its own right and we love the stickiness of their membership model. Wow. O'reilly Quite a performance here today. about 20 percent and now performer versus the markets Michael Thanks so much for your time and your take on retail! Michael Baker And here we are. Um, we've got about 30 seconds left to the closing belt. We're holding on to game zero that we're off the best uh levels of the day. The NASDAQ hired by about a percent. what we're seeing in most games I I highlighted them before is sort of growth. your areas we Market the higher valuation areas of the market software strong. Also, the base ATF is strong as they close out this final section before Thanksgiving That does it cost you on the closing Bella see if tonight? in fact 25. Let's come to now into overtime with Mike Santoli Hey, that bell ringing there on the left is what I'll get to do the hammer. welcome to overtime I'm Mike said pretty cool. oh I'm excited about that. We get to do that on Uh December 9th so mark your calendar for that. That'd be pretty cool. She is bullish into year end and he's highlighting the one sector that he's betting has the biggest upside. Now if that downship drives a market updraft, Hints of a slowing pace of rate hikes in the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting help stocks to a two-month High while syncing bond yields. Let's bring in Josh Brown A Red Hill 12th management to talk more about it. He's also of course a CNBC contributor. So Josh uh I Tell you bear markets aren't easy even for bears. As they say, we're up 15. hey, that guy lost weight and his hair changed. Look, the economy is decelerating, the Fed's still tightening aggressively. Uh, we still don't know exactly what the effect on earnings are going to be. Who knows, Maybe Crypto is going to blow up. Uh, there's been no net downside in the S P for six months. So yeah, how do you read that? Is that a selling opportunity? or uh, or just the way it goes? Well I Think the new lows are still occurring, but they're incar. they're occurring mostly in stocks that are not even in the indices. So they're they're occurring in the growth stocks that were never profitable. A lot of those stocks this summer were down 50 percent. The market has been able to recover, but those stocks are now down 70 and 80 percent. A really good poster child is what I'm talking about is: Sofi This is a company where, uh, the momentum has been horrible the entire time. Regardless of Market bounces, they're getting absolutely no relief from the headlines. Now we have to worry about there in terms of Crypto. Then we hear about a student loan repayment moratorium. It's like one thing after another after another. There are a lot of stocks like that. On a day like today though, they're getting these bounces. and I think that's because of what you were talking about. Apparently the idea that the FED is way closer to being done than maybe we thought two or three weeks ago and the data would would give them that cover. Um, so it's what I call an inside out day. you have the hardest hit stocks up the most I see DocuSign bubbling up for example. um and then what's taking a break? Staples are are flat down and uh, energy is pretty much all red so that is all counter Trend stuff and I don't know that that's the bet that you want to make going forward even if this could last for another week or two. Yeah, that's the other thing is the potential that maybe this does just last. you know, leading up a CPI or two, CPI and then it's all going to come down to CPI Is CPI going to come in high or low and if it comes in uh, you know High Uh, we're screwed. We don't want to be screwed. Uh, but uh, you know anything is going to be possible. We got jobs CPI both reports coming up beginning in December uh and then uh, right after that what happens. Fed meeting on the 15th and then hopefully we get a Sandy Clause rally. Only about uh, 24 trading days left and I pulled up this article here I Thought this was interesting. Uh, this is the the uh Bloomberg sort of your mainstream media distillation of that that line that I mentioned in the minutes where I discussed. uh, the FED suggesting that? a recession was equally likely to not and Bloomberg is translating this to seeing the chances of a recession at 50 percent Kind of suggesting that the Baseline is 50 there. So I think that's very interesting. This is the quote. It's the same quote that I tweeted about and made videos about. Uh and uh. Let's see here. Uh oh, that's the leading quote. Here's the Baseline quote and so what do they say about it? The influential staff at the Feds Board of Governors plays an important role in monetary decisions. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month saw 65 chance of recession and contrast at the meeting, the Fomc elected. Okay, well, okay, that's that's actually I Guess they're just now writing the article. All right, Well, never mind then. Uh, not much more detail there. I Was hoping they'd give a little bit more perspective because I personally found that to be very interesting. Uh, so let's see here. Yeah, keep in mind when I post multiple videos in a day, the notifications don't go out if you aren't getting notifications. uh, make sure you download the meet Kevin App M-e-e-t-k-e-v-i-n download those in your app store either Android or Apple It's totally free and uh, you will uh, be able to opt in if you want to Notifications so that way you don't miss a single one. All right, let's uh, hop back on over for a moment see what we got going into Thanksgiving here through their roommate. The underlying economy is not falling apart underneath it, right? I mean yeah, happening in the early part of the downturn, right? Um, and so that's that's the tricky part right now is figuring out what lagged effects are yet to come. Uh, and you know and what it means for uh for earnings in 2023 Michael that's the to me that what you just said is the number one uh question right now I Put this on my Mastodon account this morning. Yes I I am a member of Fintuss Um, and what I basically did was I took a charge from the journal that showed uh the rate the the start of the rate hike versus the start of the historical bear market and this is a really weird one if if you look at the top for the S P this year it happened the first day of the year in January we didn't get the first weight hike until March so we were already heading into a bear Market before that weight hike. Historically, you have the rate hike cycle and you have like, months or even in some cases, years before the market tops out and we head into Bear Market territory and that's going back to 1980. This is really the first time. So what do you do with that information? Maybe you try to be optimistic and say for once, the stock market started to sniff out uh, both the rate hike Cycles beginning and end. and maybe we've done a lot of the work in advance, getting rid of some of that excess and getting down to a more reasonable valuation. That's that's maybe the the Silver Lining that we can take away from this. I I Totally agree. I Mean and by the way, I came to that observation independently because I am not yet. uh, a mastodon member and we'll see if I end up getting there, but join us. Um, but but I have to say um, so many of those things apply, right? I mean the yield curve is deeply inverted. We know that, right? That's typically been a longer, longish lead time indicator of something bad, but usually the Market's rallying to highs by the time the the yield curve first goes negative and even Beyond it right. So is that mean we have this the most over-anticipated recession in history that may or may not show up. Uh, or you know, are we coming from too high evaluation Peak to have these cadences match up? I Guess that's the big issue. This is the one where everybody knew it was coming and that might be a reflection of just how excessive everything got in 2021. and you and I probably talked to people that I talk to people that will say things like I made way too much money in the market in 2021 I didn't deserve it like I've had those conversations with people Wow. so I feel like this was the one that we all thought we would do for the one that should have maybe happened in 2020 and if in fact, it does come to pass. with the the yield curve being disinverted for this long, it will have been the easiest to predict recession ever. And then you know the smart Alec and me says well, when can I start anticipating the most anticipated recovery uh uh in history and maybe that process gets started as soon as you know we get the uh as soon as we get the official word uh that we're in recession which takes a while Yeah, I mean the the maybe the minute? No. I actually think that you could see, um, essentially this recovery is talking about starting before. generally you have uh, equities lead us out of a recession, uh and uh, but generally also we bottom uh when when we are officially in a recession. so uh, you know, not necessarily wrong here. Brown uh but who knows. There's always the potential that this time could be different. Let's listen to Bloomberg for a moment I think it is in fact the funding Market seems to think it is. We're going to talk about why Bank Reserves may appear more plentiful than they are All that coming up in just a bit. Never mind. uh, you know earlier I was listening to a clip on Bloomberg and they were talking about how uh, you know, some spending is holding up, but it seems like credit card debt is rising as well and that maybe it's all just driven by credit card debt. and I kind of have a little bit of a counter argument to that in the reality that when you look at debt paydown, it's actually pretty dang impressive how much debt is being paid down. We talked about this in a video yesterday see if I have that short handy because Debt Pay down is at record levels which is so weird to think uh yeah, here it is. uh, that, uh, you have debt household debt repayments at such high levels? Well also, at the same time seeing credit card spending rise. uh, the top black portion being Consumer Debt and the bottom portion being Mortgage Debt If you just zoom into Consumer Debt the black portion or just focus on that, I should say that's the section that's actually growing faster. Welcome aboard! Paul Thanks for being here. Uh, that's the part that's growing faster. Very interesting, all right. Very well. So uh, look, it is. uh, it's the day before Thanksgiving Uh, tomorrow the market will be closed so it'll be a little quiet. Uh, we'll do some more digesting here. Uh, of some of the latest earnings. Uh, whether that's uh, uh, home, uh, Dell Best Buy John Deere Killing it today. Uh. financials lagging like so fine. We saw we've got a housing numbers coming out and uh, and then of course you've got other companies doing pretty decently as well. Let's uh, let's just look at the chart going back. Uh I Want to look at the weekly chart here and look at a few just to get a little perspective as we look. This is: John Deere This company is up. like literally Forex uh in in you know, a couple years here, so some really really remarkable rallies here. If you look at uh Autodesk you can see about a 35 decline here, but if anything it's it's kind of at its long-term Trend level. See if we if we go in here and it's a little challenging to draw I Think the trend. Well, let's see if we draw it somewhat like this. This is the weak chart over here, right? and we just cut out some of the bottoms there that this is. You know if I were to draw sort of a regression line linear regression and I was told biased towards the bottom, this is probably about what it would look like and uh, we're right there. You know we're right there at that. Uh, at that trend line, you've really just taken out the coveted fat here. Very interesting. End phase obviously is is just absolutely killing it. I Mean this is this is it's just beyond belief how well the stock is doing. Uh, it's a phenomenal company, smaller company. but the valuation is very very stretched I Think that makes it a high risk stock for correction, but it's a great company. You can't argue that. I've Loved this company for a very long time. Yeah, time here. You've got a firm. a complete destruction and uh Google search trends for a firm picking up. although seasonally, they do tend to do that. Here's Robin Hood another complete Crush uh of a stock down at 9.46 Worried about that Sam Bankman freed exposure and the potential that he might have to dump, uh over stock looking at Overstock Look at that. another uh online retailer here, really getting crushed after these sort of pandemic balloon. Then you have Trade Desk on the week chart. kind of, uh, kind of. you know, range bound here I'd almost call it I wouldn't necessarily say wow, look how many times we bounce off this floor right here? This is really interesting. Uh if I just draw right around here. it's not perfect, but it's it's nearly perfect. Look how we regularly bounce here. one two three, we've got some some near bouncing over here. It's actually quite interesting to see and this bar is sitting at about 40 bucks. So from a TA perspective looking pretty nice at about forty dollars for trade desks hopping on over to MP material. Here's another one that that is has been very, very range bound. You can almost do the same thing that you did with Trade Desk, although not as as well. Uh, you've got a couple of few different ranges over here. uh, anywhere probably between 26 and about 28 seems to frequently measure a bottom for this one. Uh, let's see here. If we go, let's see if the Fibs help us at all with this one. So let's see here. Uh, um, come on, let me clear this out. Oh, there we go. All right. let's get rid of that other box or the other lines here. Yeah, no, that doesn't really help us if I go back to our prayer. Not not too useful. Some charts just don't fit. Uh, you do have this sort of recent downtrend though along. let's look at this though. you have what you have with Ma Um, MP Materials seems to be a Commodities based rally when a Commodities exploded after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia right? So it seems like this stock in particular trades a lot with what's going on in the commodity cycle and I would venture to say I'm gonna try to do it right now I Want to see what the chart would look like if I take MP material and I overlay the Bloomberg commodity index? I Wouldn't be surprised if you get a pretty good correlation. Let's see I'm doing that right now and then I'll show it to you. Yeah, yeah. L Okay, let's see here. and what if I do this? Uh, okay. there we go. All right. So I'm gonna pull this up on screen here. So the blue line here is the Commodities index and the white line is MP Materials: Look at this move up in the Bloomberg commodity index. you had a a counter Trend briefly here at the end of 2021 as this thing probably traded more with like the likes of Tesla and Eves, but it really seems to align heavily with the Commodities index, although it led the Commodities index and falling once and aligned with the common decks and then roughly aligns over. here. It it essentially trades as a commodity which, which you would expect I mean rare earth materials. Uh, TLT broke out of its downtrend. That makes sense. let's take a look at that. TLT Um yeah. Wow. So uh, here's your Michael Burry short: Michael Burry's been shorting the uh, the uh, the 20-year at least he he was last year I Don't know if he still is now or what his position is in it, but uh, you know it does. Make you always wonder though, is it just going to be another one of these sort of uh Little Bear Market rallies right that we've been getting. Let's do a couple more here. Let's look at. oh let's look at Pole Star Whole Star 787 Nice little explosion here recently. Look at that went down to four dollars. Good little move to the upside: Lulu How's Lulu been doing on the week basis here? Also, somewhat range bound if I draw. yeah, this is a tough one to draw. Hmm, here's Lulu not particularly the low at a low unlike sofa of course, which is. And it's interesting how how different some of these stocks are. How about how's Cloudflare doing? Uh, oh sorry, that's Cloudflare is just net. There we go. Yikes. Yikes. Uh, ignore these two lines here though here. I'll I'll put these kind of where they belong. That's sort of what these were. Is this analyzing of trend here? Kali that was back in 2021. How remarkable. Anyway, Um, yikes. Cloudflare has been been having a rough rough ride a lot of the software businesses. really. I mean you saw Autodesk down 35 Cloud flares down more than that crowd strike hasn't done as poorly, although it's also in in quite a downtrend. Another, uh, cyber security related stock, endpoint management, so on, and so forth. How about DocuSign how's that one? Wow. wow, that's that's a remarkable drop on DocuSign It just bled out. complete bleed out. And then here's Facebook A little bit of a green over the last few days here. Tiny bit. All right. Well, there you go. Thanks so much for watching folks. We'll see in the next one. Check out the programs and building your wealth. Link down below. Use that coupon code before Black Friday Email Kevin.com if you got questions for bundle coupon and see you next one. Good luck I work in it and I can't figure out crowdstex business model Oh dude. I Signed up for a trial and I almost vomited at how complicated it was. So complicated. Anyway, goodbye.