What's going on guys, everybody welcome back to the channel. Happy Monday to you! Uh so let's hop into the market. First things first, we will mention uh again. Market Is Bearish still bearish? Uh no.

Buy Signal Again, remember that a Buy Signal would be minimum Market getting over the 50 SMA So again, here is the breakdown of the 50 SMA Last breakdown. That is all right. So that was the last breakdown. Um, right down.

little bounces in between counter Trend bounces. since we're below, we get back to the 50 SMA on the day of fomc. uh, we kind of dilly dally around it. Get over it tiny bit here and here, but ultimately down below and Market tanks again.

Then we kind of just ride the 10 SMA over under down. So again, right now Market is bearish. And the most simple way of saying it is this: Here was the start point when the market went below the 50 SMA and we have yet to reclaim the 50 SMA. That was the last test of it.

So again, we're just in a downtrend until the market gets above the 50 SMA and starts to hold pullbacks above. we would not consider the market to enter a new Buy Signal. All right. So for now, Market is bearish.

All right. All right now, we're going to move over to the Futures Market real quick. Just want to point something out here. We're going to go to a weekly time frame.

One second, what am I doing there? We are all right. we go to the weekly time frame. Just want to point out the Gap here. All right.

So you can clearly see there is a gap in the weekly chart here. From this close to this open, there's a gap up. We've had that level mapped off for quite some time. Uh, today we are most likely going to come down and fill that Gap you will see.

We gapped up, then ran. We then pulled back. We did the No Gap fill tag bounce Where we come down to the Gap fill. We do not fill it, We just tag the start of it and bounce.

This time we are rolling down again into it. You'd be less likely to hold the No Gap fill tag bounce. You'd be more likely to sell into it. Fill Gap then maybe bounce.

But the main idea here is that we will be looking for this Futures Gap to fill something. I Want to note is it is far more rare to have gaps on Futures charts. Whether that's intraday, daily, weekly, et cetera. et cetera, it's it's less common to have a gap on a Futures chart.

Therefore, when you do, it is, uh, you know it's definitely to be mapped off. Definitely to be watched for. Gap fills Number one: Most gaps in the market get filled to begin with, but when it comes to the Futures Market the fact that it's more rare to have gaps on Futures markets like you're going to have them. Not that it's rare, but you're going to have them.

Um, but it's it's to be treated as this is for sure getting filled right. It's not a matter of if, but when kind of thing it's going to happen. just a matter of when. see like this one we had a gap and then look at it.

One two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen and sixteen. On to Monday So this will be 17 weeks starting today that that gap's been open but now probably gonna get filled so it took 17 weeks. This is a weekly chart took 17 weeks so it's always in the back of your mind kind of thing. All right guys.

Uh, so that's kind of very important. Today is this weekly level. Uh, Gap fill. We've just entered it so again, basically maintaining below the start of that Gap then sell down to fill.

the Gap is very well a trade play. Uh, that or trade plan that can be in play here. Um, yeah, so that's that All right. Now what we're going to do is we're going to flip over uh to the Spy here.

I Just want to check this 30 minute chart real quick. 30 minute chart. and last night there. Okay, fantastic.

Now we're going to pop over to Trading View. We're gonna look at Trading View real quick. Uh, so in trading View We do have a daily V web coming in here at about 28 30, so 28 30 cents. Another little area might be watching for some short-term hesitation.

Maybe counter Trend bouncing on? uh, the one minute today. so 24 28 20. Decent level to maybe have on your chart and then, um, aside from that, we have some big weekly levels down. At 420, we'd be watching for a long um and then just to kind of give the 30 minute sell signal some more attention.

Uh, let's remember that the sell signal started here. Okay, we're all the way down here now. We haven't gotten a Buy Signal yet. Every bounce that's happened over the past two weeks has been counter Trend And the reason we say that is not because it's sold off afterwards, but because it's below the 50 SMA.

So we just assume anything that bounces up is counter Trend until you get above and then it's dipped long. Uh, right. So we've had some counter Trend bounces that ultimately get sold back down. All right, And that's because we're in a downtrend.

So move starts here. We are here now. The current sell signal V-wap resistance level is about 440s. right here to yeah, 440..

So right now, the Sell Signal View App levels 440. that little green view app that I've circled on both charts. That's the trigger point for a long move back to 445. So until that trigger level is breached, we don't consider that the 4485 trade is underway.

But when that eventually happens, we can start to consider as a 445 Target is going to be underway. but that's not even close to right now. Um, the first thing we would actually look for in terms of long targets like when we get a new Buy Signal would be something like this: when the market recovers the 50 SMA we would then assume the market is going to push along directly back to the 440b web. and then we actually assume there's probably resistance there for now.

but then later and eventually in some point in time we'll get a break over that sell Signal View app. We would then Target the purple. Um, so ideally this is not our first long Target When we get a Buy Signal it's actually going to be the sell signal V web because the 50 SMA is below it. Therefore, if we flip into an uptrend when we get through the 50, we would push up up up and it would most likely go to obviously next.

Target There being that cell signal V web. All right. Now That being said, we are watching the Fomc announcement, right? So the Fomc announcement started here. All right.

So let's mark that off. Uh, that was F O M C. All right, that all has to do with uh, you know, interest rates and whatnot. Okay So the Fomc announcement most recent that is took place right there and this yellow V web that you see coming down.

that is the volume way at average price of the selling move that started from Fomc. So number one aside from being in a downtrend and then number two aside from being below the current sell signal V web which is the green line, we also have a big announcement date in between all of that which was the Fomc day and that has its own view app that we watch and that's coming down here. And so that gives us resistance at 435. So we first will view this Market that right now the down trending, immediate momentum resistance is Fomc and that's that's 435 right now.

So um, we kind of assume that Like you know, even if we bounce back to here, we're probably going to get met with some settling kind of thing in that we would also kind of think about like this. Uh, until we get over this this level, we'd assume that markets can't be turning around. You know that's another way of looking at it, right? Because if you see the 50 Smas 437 43, this is 435. So if we were to breach this, we'd assume pop two 50 SMA Then if we can clear 50 SMA go to Cell Signal View app then for Clear Cell Signal View app.

then we have a breakout trade all the way up there. That's kind of the formation of what we would see on a total reversal long situation is those kind of steps and events hitting each other along the way. But anyways, we have Fomc cell signal V web down. We're down trending.

We haven't really broken any sort of key resistance in the downtrend right now that would signal reversals. Uh, nothing like that. So it's just assumed that trend is still down. It will eventually find a bottom, right? Generally, it's going to find a bottom when it wants to off of some level, right? We've already talked about a couple of those.

One being the Gap fill in the Futures Market other being the daily view app support level we have here further down the road would be down here into the Weekly Bear Market Breakout V web and continuation support view app on the weekly and the 420s right? That's another area. Um, so I mean I Hope that helps you know those are a lot of the key levels and things we're watching. There's more that we're even paying to paying attention to other than that, but you know there's only so much you guys can can really pay attention to. Uh, you know I will bring this over real quick.

This is our statistics chart. A lot of you guys like, oh, you guys don't use statistics anymore. No, we we do. But uh, we don't always talk about it in our video only because we've shown this.

you know, a Katrillion Times. Um, you know, So it's like you guys have seen this many, many times. All right. The other thing too, here is um, again, we have our this is a five minute chart I'm gonna go to something that's a little bigger so it'll look slightly less busy.

Uh, so I'm gonna go like a four hour chart here. All right. So looking at the four hour chart again, this is just think of, uh, think of the yellow as being normal. overbought if that makes sense.

Uh, but anyways, this is plus One that's overbought. That is fair value. Overbought back close to fair value. overbought.

Definitely overbought. back to overbought. Doesn't matter. Overbought.

overbought, overbought. back to fair value Trading about fair value. Now it's on sale. Now it's on sale by Minus One.

All right, So effectively, all we've seen the market do is go. From what we call up here, this is plus one down to negative one. That's a big move, but it's totally normal. Totally normal like that is ideally within the perfect realm of probabilities in the stock market going from plus one deviation to minus one deviation.

That's all within one standard deviation of the one year Trend which is completely normal and on average. That's going to happen 70 percent of the time. 70. How do I even I mean that doesn't make sense I Mean yeah.

Anyways, I'm not going to get into the weeds of it, but with that being said, Um, we are very close to negative one. We're not quite there. Negative one would be down here. that would be 425.66 So we're even.

You know, kind of considering markets are very, um, very well. can can move into 425 even before we bought them is that would take us on a full negative one. Standard deviation move away from the mean um, and that would be seen as a value spot, right? And then we have. If we go back to like this five minute chart, we have minus three, uh, standard error coming up as well.

That's a six month Trend six month standard error minus three is 425 and then we also have yearly minus three standard error about four twenties here. Um, on the market. So at the same time we were talking about, uh, those weekly V-waps down in 420, right? See how it's all about 420 right there. We also have minus three, um, weekly levels down here.

So this is like what you would say is a 100 a long spot? Like no questions, Absolutely never, no, no, even. I Mean, if it doesn't work, then that is. If that doesn't work, you've hidden like an anomaly, right? So so basically it's It's a guarantee. It's only you you basically consider.

This is guaranteed winning value. Long points, right? You see the market down in that you're you basically just are sitting at a desk and the first thing you say to yourself is you're you're an idiot if you don't add long hair, you, you are. You're a dumb ass. Those are the first words you say to yourself.

Words of encouragement: I Am not an idiot I'm supposed to longness. Why? Because it's negative. Three deviations. Um, right away from the mean.

And that's standard error. That is not standard deviation. It's standard error. It's something a little.

But anyways, just listen. Are you supposed to be long? Okay, because it's just a high value. Long areas the way you would the way you would view that. Now that doesn't mean you just put your whole everything on it, but this is an area where you're supposed to just watch for long setups.

You even want to start nibbling on some long because the probabilities of balances in that area just significantly. High All right. So anyways, that's pretty much today's today's video. Uh, take care, have a good one and we'll catch you in the next one.