What's going on guys. welcome back to the channel I know I haven't posted as regularly this past week or two. Uh, just busy. Got some cover being installed, hardwood floors being redone, countertops coming in, some Plumbing being worked on, things like that so just just really busy.

Um so looking at the market it went up past two days, we had a break of the 50 SMA and a bullish cross. So starting here when the market got over this 50 SMA that is a Buy Signal and a bullish um you know move and bullish flow and that happened right there where that red Line's at. Okay and then obviously as the market breaks and squeezes up a little bit like here and into pretty much like this move here like this doji kind of candle. Uh so once the market got to about here is when we performed a bullish cross.

So when we got there We performed a bullish cross which basically means the markets and momentum up a Buy Signal up and then the bias doesn't fully reverse until the market goes below the 50 SMA which is right here. Okay so when you're looking at the market this morning the way that you would kind of read this is this was your last Buy Signal or this was the last break of the 50 SMA in the upwards Direction This white line which is like right there on the day is or was your cross slash Buy Signal which leads to an extended continuation throughout the day. Overnight into the next morning. top slam breaks down so that's a lower high off that.

Okay, so pretty much just Buy Signal here. mark it up. Market is always bullish off a Buy Signal until it closes or not closes, but starts to break below the 50 SMA so break over 50 SMA long not necessarily bearish or momentum fully shifting till it's below the 50 SMA here. which means we're pretty much there.

right? Right on this line today. Okay, so in between that, you also have the 10 SMA so your 10 SMA broke here. that is your short term moving average which again, would lead to short-term momentum. That's the way you read it.

So pretty much you had your 10 SMA break right here. which is that right there. So Market went up and as the 10 SMA caught up on the day was going up, going up, going up. So it was going up, going up, going up, going up, going up.

and then it caught up right there. the market broke it down which led to that sell-off in in layman's terms I Guess you could say so now I'm going to bring up trading View Um, delete this. So now we're just going to set up some V-waps just to kind of give you guys a feel of how I'm watching the market. Um, all pretty much based off of volume interaction in a way.

All right. So um, pretty much this was the. um, let me put this on a one minute two days ago, Maybe three days ago. Now this was our sort of retests of the 10 SMA break.

So let me adjust properly. Okay, so it's your 10 SMA break up. So pretty much this yellow level is support or it's the volume weighted average price support. Now this trend took off really fast, so we hadn't even gotten a retest of it until late day yesterday in which we have broken down.

The market has pretty much kind of started to stall right about there. Mm-hmm So pretty much this bullish move that started from here went up to here Here Here here. the volume weighted average price for that is here. which means today majority of everybody that got long on this move is now underwater.

They're they're losing unless they got long hair and sold. But if they got long here, bought this, bought this any of these and didn't sell, they're now run majority if not. Yeah, basically like anyone because that's the volume weighted average price. So on average most people are underwater from the last bullish upswing we had in the market.

Okay, so there's a couple ways you can think about this just on this picture alone. If everybody that was bullish from this trend is now under water in their average ownership price is 387. this is where you would use or can use or apply your knowledge in Psychology which is that of when someone is in the market and their price or their position turns red. They can't wait to get out at break even and many times we'll just sell if they get a break even test.

So if majority of everyone has an average ownership price of 387.89 and that means now they're under water, their Breakeven price. Not everyone but on average would be somewhere around that number now that they are below it. Therefore, if the market pops up many times, we could see some sort of selling action here because this was the Buy Signal Super well. You know, like here and here by signal Dip dip dip average ownership price long here underwater Break Even bounce back up Oh thank gosh.

just barely got up. Okay, so looking at that, we could argue there's going to be a little bit of a sell-off right about 387.89 today. Okay, that's uh, on the table. The other thing that I would be watching is obviously the 50.

SMA. So the 50 SMA is priced at 385.27 Okay, so 385 27 is right right here. That's actually whatever. It's good enough.

So 385 27 is priced right here and we know that a full-on breakdown won't really happen. Uh, what I mean is like a full shift in momentum won't happen until 385 is taken out and the lower distribution of the volume weighted average price or other words I'd call it the margin of error. So the margin of error that you could expect the market to go below this view app is basically here many times before bouncing. So anyways, until the 50 SMA is taken out, you won't really be bearish.

and now I hope they don't really confuse you with all like these V-waps and this stuff I mean I can make it even simpler. It's just from here. this is the average ownership Trend up. So ideally anyone long wants to see the market stay over that and if it's not, then they're starting to be underwater.

which means there might obviously start selling. Okay, now the trend that would currently be battling the 50 SMA So like we said, momentum doesn't fully shift down until the 50 SMA gets taken up. Well, what is causing this downward pressure in the immediate to sell into the 50 estimate? that would be the break of the 10. the 10 SMA break happened at 391.73 which is like right up here.

So if we look at where that 10 SMA broke, um, a 10 SMA broke? Uh, right here. Let me get my let's see right, let's retest. So we're going to be right here. So that's where the tenants of May broke.

So basically, since yesterday when this broke down, you could be looking for bearish plays off the volume weighted average price of the 10 SMA break which would be like this. Okay, that's still not right because it's not attached properly. That's right. Okay, so that's your 10 SMA break.

This is the start point so you'll basically see yesterday Market pumps up and when we get to here, we break down the short term simple moving average. So the short term simple moving average Trend support line was broken and we start to sell down bearishly. The volume weighted average price of that Bearish move is 389.10 So essentially what has happened from yesterday afternoon into today is we have gotten a s. Basically the tenants that may broke in.

short-term selling pressure is coming in which is pushing the market down. that market is sold all the way into the volume weight, average price of our previous long move that is given way. Which means everyone who got long from the previous couple days is now under water and they're more likely to sell close to a break-even price. Their Breakeven price is going to be somewhere around 387 slightly over I'm assuming the market is not going to shift Bearish down fully until through 385..

So pretty much all we're saying is below this: Market obviously becomes full bear in the short term. Um, we could probably see rejections around this area if this area down here were to bounce. so pretty much all we're waiting for is just kind of the new signal, right? You had your Buy Signal back here. you got a nice kind of couple day long 10 SMA broke here so it's coming down to fight the 50 if the 50 gives way and we end up creating a new sell signal, then we'll just be trading down.

It's pretty pretty much it. So um so yeah, that's uh, that's that's about it. Alright guys, take care and have a great day.