Hey quick reminder: i'm going to be streaming. The federal reserve meeting on the meet kevin live channel linked down below, let's get into the hey everyone kevin here. Okay, obviously, look this sucks. The market is not doing what we saw in march aware the market started rallying before the fed meeting and then rallied for two weeks thereafter, so far, we're kind of getting a sell-off into the day, with the nasdaq down almost one and a half percent.

At the time of this recording it's about four dollars under that zero percent fib line, which means we're breaking pretty critical levels that we had around the start of war. On february 24th, uh march, 8th march 14th, right before the fed meeting, it's crazy and every bit of financial information that we're getting is just pure bearishness. Let me give you just a little bit of a summary of some of the madness going on. First of all, we've got lower retail flows than usual 73 billion dollars over a three month period compared to 77 billion dollars, which we usually had so we're kind of seeing a little bit of this decline.

Some folks are saying that money is now being taken from the stock market and just parked into like money market funds, because people are just tired of losing money in the stock market because, like it's fine to buy the dip for a bit, you know like that. Should be the same, buy the dip for a bit and then it's like at some point. It's just like wait. A minute.

We've we've been playing this game since december. It's been december january february, march april, it's been five months of crap. We've had like two weeks of positive and it's been five months of crap and we're on number six right now, we're literally on the six month of crap in the stock market, so the average retail portfolio right now is down 23. That is not like down 23 from the peak.

No, no, no, like negative. 23. That's the average retail portfolio - and i know some people are like. Oh i'm all in commodities, i'm fine great congratulations! Cool yeah! There are going to be some people that made money, but the vast majority of people are having a rough time and it's kind of becoming one of those things where, like.

How can you lose less right? You've also got wealthier and older generations that are like uh. I have to go back to work if i keep losing my wealth, so i'm gon na sell and just like sit on the sidelines, and you know these are the times where it's like wait a minute. Maybe maybe because the macro environment is just so freaky right now and everybody's so worried about the federal reserve, maybe we're actually potentially approaching the bottom, because everybody's expecting drone power to be a hawk today. In fact, even me, like, i made a video watch this before the fed meeting, and i talked about all the reasons why i think drone powell is likely going to be hawkish today, but by being hawkish he's actually already pre-pricing in so much fear into the markets.

I mean we've got our three percent treasuries, it's starting to finally turn the real estate market, we're not sure if we're going to see a flood of sellers or not we're seeing consumers still spend and travel like crazy, which is great, but i mean let's look at Some some of the information we got about the market bloomberg is telling us that, maybe maybe there was a chance that we'll get a tactical bounce in tech, healthcare, home builders and emerging markets. Why? Because right now we are pricing in the potential worst case scenario for the federal reserve they're, suggesting that the markets are pricing in a 50 basis, point hike in may again in june and again in july, like just three fed meetings of 50 bps in a row And that might actually set us up for a reversal if we end up getting a little bit more of a dovish fed if it's like, okay, we're starting to see some of the overheating going away. Okay, we're starting to see inflation cap out used vehicle index still coming down commodities, slowly tricking down trickling down. Look at lumber prices, they're well off their peak.

I mean in fact, let's just do it together, really quick if we just type into google lbs price lumber from the nasdaq we'll get a little quote here here you go. Look at the one year on lumber. Let's get kevin back here there we go so you've come off these crazy insane highs that we had last year we're not as low as where we were right before the you know, whole delta disaster, and certainly right before the war disaster uh, but we're we're uh. Well, yeah, i mean those levels we were at lbs somewhere around five to six hundred dollars which, if we look at the grand scheme of things like lumber's still expensive right, but we've also come off some of these highs.

This is actually very similar to what inflation expectations look like. We've brought those inflation expectations down very, very exciting, so i mean hopefully hopefully, but that's all we have right now is hope that we peaked with inflation in march, but that's the only hope we have for a potential bailout, and maybe we get some dovishness. That j-pal says something the effect of hey, like it actually looks like inflation did peak in in march. Maybe that would give us some hope and optimism today, but here's another thing that we've got: we've got bearish sentiment right now and buying of downside protection at the highest level since march of 2020..

This means, even retail, investors, are hedging with puts more than they have ever before since march of 2020. In other words, people are like okay yeah. No, we have to like continue to hedge here, while at the same time, smart money is actually taking an increased beta. In this market, which means they're going long and they're taking more risk, see if you have a beta of one and the s p moves a hundred dollars, you're expected to see your portfolio move a hundred dollars right.

If uh, if you have a beta of two, then for every one hundred dollar move in the s p 500, you would expect a 200 move in your s, p, 500 or your beta weight of two portfolio relative to the s. P, 500. So twice the return right. If you had a return of say 300 well, that would mean you had an alpha of 100.

You had you had a beta risk of two, which was twice the s p 500, but you had a return of three uh 300, which means you had a hundred dollars of alpha in there. This is why we call you know: there's the website called seeking alpha right, like people want alpha, which is returns above your risk weighted uh portfolio. So what what we're learning right now is that smart money is actually going long and they're going with higher beta, which means if they thought the downside was more they're, going to be losing more money going towards the downside faster. If you're increasing your beta because like if the s p moves down, 100 you'll lose 200 with a beta weighted too right.

If uh, however, if they're going long and they're increasing the beta, that's a sign that smart money is like technically. This could be a sign that we are uh actually uh in the direction of at the bottom. Now, it's so hard to call the bottom, because it's been such a frustrating market right, it's been so difficult. We just keep.

We run off of these lows and we return right to them and now we've broken through some of them, but look at some of these others. I mean we touched on these briefly the other day, but look at this net number of stocks declining not yet at extreme levels, but i mean i have to say i mean it looks pretty extreme to me. I mean that i disregard the title here for a moment. Let me just hide myself for a moment.

Look at this folks right here, see like these little green dots right here. This means the number of stocks declining uh versus like what the s p. 500 is doing right. You can see, like all of these super lows right here, really corresponded to lows in the stock market uh and so look at this we're getting a sell-off here and uh and we're pretty dang low in terms of these sell-off figures here right and so a lot Of folks are looking at this, suggesting, hey, like the things, are lining up to say that we're pretty dang near a potential bottom uh anytime, the stock market goes down.

We also see excess liquidity at lows, which kind of makes sense, and so we're getting a little bit of that lining up, though not so perfect same thing here, long versus short volatility, even though the title says does not show uh complacency uh, i think it's an Easier way to say here that markets are really showing that every time you get indices go down right. These downs right here that are in red. You end up getting the blue line, your volatility ratio at these pretty dang low levels, and so that's what we're seeing right here, the same thing with sentiment very much near bottom right now, the same thing with uh net number of stocks, making new lows: 52-week lows: This one we haven't seen that kind of like extreme decline. Yet though, which potentially is a signal like oh, is there more pain to come? Uh yeah, i mean it's possible.

Nobody wants to hear that it's absolutely possible and we know 2022 is going to suck, but i'll tell you everything we're reading right now is talking about how uh consumer demand is outpacing concerns about inflation, that small businesses are actually getting squeezed out of their ability to To hire folks, we saw that in the adp report this morning the adp report this morning was a disaster uh for small business. I mean, if you look at it right here on screen. Now you see that, like in the service providing sector, it's the very small businesses that are losing most of the jobs because they can't compete anymore uh with with the large uh with the large companies who are able to offer more benefits more attractive wages. So so we'll see we'll see and then obviously we had a miss on on ism this morning, which uh is is you know we disappointed on expectations here, which is not good because uh? This is a potential.

You know evidence of a slowdown in economic activity and jerome powell is going to get asked about that today. It's like look, you know there are signs that you have tightened enough. There are signs that the economy is somewhat starting to slow, even though the consumer's still spending like crazy. We just had a negative gdp print and yes, some of that had to do with inventory restocking in the trade death uh, but like we, we can't expect all levels of the economy to keep booming while at the same time, you guys are going crazy with your Your rate hikes uh, which they should have done earlier, but the level of hawkishness we're getting right now might actually, if they stay hawkish, lead to a policy mistake, and so i actually think the market right now isn't pricing in the fear of uh of of the Fed raising 50 basis points, it's the fear, that's being priced in right now that drone pal is going to come out as hawkish and they're going to make a mistake.

They're going to go we're going to keep hiking we're going to be data dependent, but we're going to you know he has that attitude today, the market's going to say that's it like we're we're destined for a recession. I mean jamie dimon over at jp. Morgan has now increased their odds of a recession from 20 to like 35 percent, so uh they do. It expect that if we have a recession, it'll be mild, but still you are seeing the market right now, not pricing.

In rate hikes returning to normal, we should have done that already. Okay, we're seeing now fear that the fed is going to make a mistake and what we're seeing market wide is that sentiment pretty dang bearish, which could end up being a buying opportunity? And i know it hurts in the short term cause it sucks to buy when everything's red and it keeps going red. But that's how things feel right now and the charts and what we're seeing in terms of the data reiterating that fingers crossed. Let's see what happens fed meeting coming up soon remember, i will be streaming that fed meeting on the meet kevin live channel so make sure to check out that channel link down.

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