Good morning, Ladies and gentlemen, everybody welcome back to the channel. Today is Wednesday We're going to be getting a Fed rate decision, which is pretty much just expected to be a quarter basis point. Now let me tell you I Hate days like today and the days leading up to it because everyone just ends up Echo chambering the same thing. You just heard me.

Echo chamber it. So again, there's going to be volatility. The Fed's gonna, you know, make interest rates go higher. Um, they want inflation high or they tell you they don't.

But in my opinion, they do. So again, they're going to raise inflation. This or printing money. Same old story dollar being devalued, poor and poor by the second, through the devaluation of your dollar.

Blah blah. Okay, so today is going to have volatility. Generally on Fed days where they release interest rates and you know we get all this crazy volatility, generally Market's going to have a knee-jerk reaction. That first knee-jerk reaction will be faded and then the next uh move in the market will be the legitimate one.

That's typically how this works. so there's always going to be a fake out before the real trending move. and sometimes there is no trending move and it just kind of chops back and forth. But generally speaking, it's one fake out followed by uh, true move.

Okay, so with that being said, uh, expect volatility today. Usually there's volatility to start this morning and then leading into 2 p.m it slows down and basically there's just really small Scout moves Things become more annoying. so you really have a couple decisions you can make either you trade towards the open uh in the morning with the morning volatility. Uh, make some money, then chill out expecting midday to be kind of choppy until you get to two or you trade in the morning.

expect better volatility then as you near you know, 11 o'clock to two. expect choppiness and only trade kind of sort of scalp in and out and then wait for the volatility. or you can do whatever you want. Outside of that, and uh, which the volatility starts to 2 30 p.m All right, so expect volatility in the morning, then a slow down, then volatility to 2 30.

Okay side note, we had a Buy Signal on the S P 500 when it was at 388 dollars, we are now trading at like 401. Uh, 400. Sorry. So we had a Buy Signal here at 388 Market tray up to about 400.

so it's about 12. uh, 12 points there on the Spy All right when we look at some statistics here on the market or when you go to the Spy here. okay, we can look at some statistics real quick. Enlarge this.

Okay, this is what we mentioned last night. Pretty much the go-to price levels for right now are going to be 406 and 396.. Now of course with the volatility that can come in today. Um, generally speaking I Usually see on Fed days we use we move anywhere from like six points to like 12 points.

Like normally we don't, we don't move anything less than like six points of volatility. But anyways, if you look at how the market is positioned okay, from here to here is about 10 points and that's usually the average move of these Fed days. Okay, from 396 to 386 is 10 points. Okay, that's generally how it works and you can argue because the market moves in standard deviations? Okay, and one standard deviation in the market.

Um, one standard deviation is 20 points. Okay, um, going a half deviation is 10 points. All you got to know is that pretty much markets move between statistics levels and so basically the statistics levels right now are 396, 406, and 386.. Therefore, let's say at 2 Pm the market is trading here at 396.

this gives the market the perfect go-ahead or a finagley situation where if it's trading at 396, then it has the typical 10 dollar per share move. To the downside for a Fed day and it would be perfectly positioned for a 10 move up to one standard deviation on the FED announcement. So all I'm getting at is that the market on Fed days when they pump or they drop, they can tend to move anywhere from like six to ten points, occasionally 12 points. Okay, and when that happens, generally speaking, the market will trade to and from statistics levels and it's common that on the Uh, the FED day, the market will position itself in a way that I guess you could say it keeps many options on the table, right? So if on average we do a 10 point move, dropping the markets to 396 today would then put the market in a position where it can easily see.

Oh well, we have 10 points down or we have 10 points up. Okay, so that's kind of how I see the markets position themselves, making it so that there is an equivalent 10 point move, up and or down probability in terms of the volatility. So anyways, with that being said, right now, current supports on the day are 396 based on statistics levels. Resistance is all the way at 405.68 In terms of statistics, which we're not going to touch until obviously the FED announcement.

um, if if we were going to touch it anyways because it's just too far away to make a move on the day without some sort of volatility government announcement interaction, we're not extremely long biased to start this day going into the market. and the reason for that is because we have already hit many main Fibonacci levels. So what I'm going to do real quickly is take you over this chart, start you here. Um, and well, I can't do it on that chart because I just can't So we're gonna go back to this one.

Pretty much what we're going to do is we're going to Do our swing fibs. The swing FIB is going to go from the Buy Signal Buy Signal Here we're gonna go from 10 break to 10 break. 10 breaks to 10 break. looks like that giving you a price target of 417 which we shied by like a couple pennies or whatever.

All right. And then also what we're going to do is we're going to do our overnight Gap FIB which is going to go from the open to the previous day closed. You're going to look like that which gives you the intraday 161. So our two Targets yesterday based on intraday swings we're here and um, yeah, well really I was just entered a long Target and then introduce uh, overnight swings, multi-day swing Target was 417.

So our targets have really been met for the swing trade, one of the Swing trades um, and the the overnight Gap intraday trade and then also depending on if you did it this way which most wouldn't have done it this way. there was actually an inverse Fibonacci level that we did. so I'm going to show you this real quick because this is also another angle that I was watching and you guys are probably not going to understand. You might understand what I do here, but um, some won't and that's okay.

So we had so to basically check this. So you see how I have this swing FIB set up and it gives us a Target up here to 417. Theoretically, this swing FIB broke here so we would do an inverse FIB which would do something like this. Um, that's actually slightly off.

Let me redo it and you don't have to go this far. but it's also something I pay attention to. So an inverse field would be the failure of the 38.2 back up to the previous top. That would give us a 161 down outside of the zero Fib So then arguably this could have been taken off.

So then what we would do here is we'd do an inverse FIB like this and then that would give us another 161 up on the top which I'm going to change this all to White So we're gonna do. Set occurs to White and you can see that one six one comes in there at 399.28 So we have an initial swing pimp there, a potential inverse 161 swing FIB there, and an intraday one six one. So there's three 161 targets all lining up is 400 417. That's why we're no longer long bias at this top.

So a good chance you can see pullbacks going into the open, continuing open, even taking you back down towards that 396 price, which was those statistical probability levels that we talked about. So again, not really a long bias starting into the open up today considering we hit so many of those 161 swing targets. Um, so cleaning up that chart a little bit because I don't need all those on for right now I'm just going to do that. Take this out.

Perfect. All right. So um, a little like last but not least, pretty much put it this way: Um, as long as the market and again, it's better to use SPX for the system I Know I've taught you guys mainly about it on the Spy but theoretically should be used on SPX but spy is it's a very gross uh representation. But anyways, as long as the market is over three nine, Four seven thirty, then Um markets remain in an uptrend, so there there is no sell signal till we're below um 3949 3947 on SPX Or if we're looking at the spine, there is no Uh Bearer cell signal until we're below three Nine, Three to Three Nine fours.

All right, everybody, take care and have a great day and we'll see you this afternoon for a recap.