What's going on? ladies and gentlemen, everybody Welcome to a little bit of a YouTube stream. Yeah, going to be doing little bit of studying for my CMT exam but I figured I would just pop a stream on and just kind of hang out with whoever joins us. uh while I'm doing that. So yeah, just pretty much going to be uh again studying for my CMT exam here while simultaneously watching the market.

So if you guys got some questions, feel free, let me know and I'll point out anything I think as significant or worth mentioning as the market does what it does, what's up, keer and Rico Suave what's going on guys and to the other 25 of you in joining us? Yeah, like I said, it's going to be again, it won't be the most probably the most exciting stream because again, I'll be doing a little bit of studying. I uh took my first mock exam last night. that's supposed to be the closest representation to uh, what the exam will be and I got a 69% I think you need a 70% or 75% to pass so I'm we're almost there. we're close.

we got another. we got 87 nine days so should be good. should be good. What's up Mr Krabby face what's up show Love 247 So um yeah, pretty much what I will do though before I maybe go a little quiet here is uh H I say I'm going to be quiet but I probably won't I say I'm going to study.

but let's be realistic here, but we'll see how well it goes. But it's like if I'm going to be study, just kind of watching the markets like I might as well be streaming and hanging out at the same time. you know? So I guess what we will do is just kind of run through. Um I mean we could run through what the market did today a little bit and then a couple of the options that are moving and um so on so forth or options that have moved.

So let me, um, get my chart set up here the way it? or maybe it's this one here. Yeah, there we go. Okay, so pretty much the market is back testing. Uh, 50 SMA support I Wonder if this is where the market starts to be a little scammy? It's kind of how it feels, but uh, we'll see.

but I mean yeah, it's It's pretty straightforward. um, market yesterday right at the close. Let me show you guys so like and actually you know what I'll do is I'm gonna pull up like a one minute chart to the right. so real quick look at the chart to the left.

we're going to correlate that to the chart to the right and I'll show you the overunderish narrative in the market. and uh, when you're over it, it's more or less a bullish narrative. So um, they did did a real nice scam pop today off that. but um, anyway so you can see yesterday we're kind of rolling after hours.

We break the 50 SMA bounce back and just remember that this red line on my chart. that's the 50 SMA So essentially after hours pre-market breakdown, back test: there's your short move. okay, and then where's the big explosive move? Pretty much take off once the market gets back over the 50 SMA which is 45463 three. So essentially again, 45463 that's your over under bullish bearish level.

or at least it was Actually Now we just broke it down because it's updated. so my apologies. the uh, over under level right now is uh, watch, see, it's it's actually uh, 45490 now so you can kind of see how that candle got real aggressive there and kind of flashed down. That's because if you look closely to the chart to the left here, you can see we're breaking the 50 SMA And that's an algorithmic 50 SMA that pretty much anyone and a lot of people use computers use.

um, most people run their charts with pre-market data. Not that that's wrong or not that that's bad. Um, but as far as like the usage of a 50 SMA um, your 50 SMA is going to have significantly more importance and um, uh, algorithmic trading around it if you're looking at a 50 SMA with no pre-market data on your charts. Um, so anyways, so basically what's really happened from yesterday to today I'll explain it without getting super detailed.

and just to make it simply or as simple as I can. Um, so just know that last night we broke down here and then and the day was right about there. Okay, so I mean I don't need to put two lines I'll just put one. That's fine.

But pretty much all you got to know is last night we closed below the 50. SMA this morning, that red horizontal line. That's the 50. SMA You break it down.

that means the Market's going bearish. Okay, how long does it go bearish for that's a totally different question that we're not going to quite get into. I Mean it all comes down to you having a price, target market sentiment. What you can can't Again, that's that's a bajillion different questions you can get into.

Behavioral: Finance You can get into. Fibonacci I mean you can get into so many different things as far as where a market can go to and not go to. But the basic premises that you should understand that when the market is below the 50, the likelihood that you're going to see like upwards bias movement is less likely and it's more likely you see downward bias movement. So here's the logic, right? So you break the 50, you're bearish all right.

And then the market decides to find a support which we could cover blah blah blah right? And then what happens as the market gets back over the 50? SMA That's where the algorithm everything shift positive and now it's basic. basically an up market right? And then you'll see Market does what? Market goes up all right. Now you'll see the Market's falling all the way back to the 50 SMA area and we're testing it again. I Can tell you why it's falling all the way back.

It's just pointless, You know I don't? We don't really need to go into all that, but all you have to know is that over under the 50 SMA pretty much dictates up or down in the market. It does, not, however, dictate tops and bottoms. So again, you do have to understand what analysis and it's not even analysis. it's just how the market functions right? I Mean you have Trend following systems and you have reversal systems again.

Trend Following is not reversals. Okay, if you're looking for reversals, then you would not be looking for something like Trend. You'd be looking for over exaggerated moves to the upside or the downside, right? Or you'd be looking for high low value points that may or may not be based around statistical probabilities. Uh, you may be looking at momentum indicators like RSI or Macd or something like that, that's or on balance volume or Force indexes or anything momentum based looking for oversold or over, uh, oversold or overbought conditions that does has nothing to do with Trend right? So you know, like when I say hey, we're over the 50 SMA That means it's up And then you see this big down move, you be like Oh I thought you meant it up.

Yeah, we are. We're Trend up right now. Tren Trend up does not mean you won't see an overbought scenario that drives the market back down again. That thinking would be you are mixing two different strategies right without the understanding of which one pertains to which and how you would use one over the other right? So that's what also people talk about when they say keep things simple.

That's right. If you keep things simple then you would avoid a situation where You' be like reversal or Trend up right because you just stick to one and one's one right? But if you look at Trend you look at reversals, then from there psychologically, you have to differentiate between when it makes sense to follow one, when it make sense to Trump, another one, etc. etc. right? So pretty much all it's happened today is this morning.

We started down by about 10:00 or whatever. Midday 11:00 we went into a new Buy Signal the Buy Signal was this. That was the Buy Signal the break over the 50s. SMA There's your back test of the the breakout and then there's your long move to follow and then whatever, whatever Market falls apart and comes back down.

Okay, um, but again, you can see that the market isn't really closing below the 50. SMA So in this like instance, you might say to yourself, okay, we're not really, we're still not bearish. it's still actually buy the dip. uh, because we're not closing below now.

That could all change and whatever. whatever. Um, but yeah, so that's pretty much all has happened. We started with a little bit of a bare sell signal pre-market um and then by midday, we just went into a Buy Signal and so uh, that's pretty much it.

And then as far as like some option stuff goes, um yeah, I'll pop on I'll pop on some option stuff real quick. I might have to flip to some other options to get all the important ones. um, but like I'll talk to you guys about the 4555 puts right so you can see the market went up to 456 then it rolled over. Etc Um, so there was some.

There was some signs that the market was going to top there. um I would have picked up on the market trying to roll uh, one of way and again I'm going to check the four five sixes but again, just put it this way. the market topped. Let's actually pull a spy up on this chart to the left so we can navigate this.

Um, all right. So take this 456 top here, right? Take that one. when did that top 1146. Then you had your first volatility candle 1147.

Okay, and then if we match that up, yeah, so you can see the market pulls back this I'm making I always make things too complicated. Pretty much. Just put it this way. basically right here at about 12:00 All right, 12:00 would be here on the options chain.

12:00 would be like right there. So on that leg down on that leg down, we got an alert on the 455 puts today the volume had a nice Spike uh right there. So this would have been here, so that would be the volume Spike that would be a signal to me me that arguably there's activity on the put side, so we should be watching bearishness, right? That would be one way to do that. From here, you basically see the spike you look for the demand demand would be down here and pretty much from the pullback low of that demand after the volume.

uh, signal your first pop is and that's if you catch the absolute low you're not. Sometimes you will. You might get lucky, but basically the maximum gain you could have made on the first dip to first pop after the volume signal was 82% on those contracts. If you would have sold all your position there and maybe hold like one, then you could have caught your runner for 226.

arguably up to 263, but probably no one's doing that. but maybe so. Um, the last signal that I kind of would have picked up on on the market was about 1206 to basically go in on the 4555 puts. Now those are a little further out of the money.

So uh, that's why those had such a big increase now. Uh, give me a second. I'm going to go to another options chain here. So now what we're going to do is we're going to look at the 45 sixs just for funsies.

and then we'll look at the 454s So we'll go. We'll take this one to this guy. All right, looking at the chart down here. these are the 456 Now the 456 gave us a really a pretty clean so like remember what I was saying like I didn't get a signal on the 455s until 12:06 Remember that when the market topped the market topped at 45627.

Okay, to bet that the Market's going to go to 4555 is a higher risk bet versus buying puts that are already in the money. So when you start to kind of understand that you can understand the volume a little better. So let me explain. if we were looking at the 4555 puts when the market was trading at 45627 Absolute high of day.

not that you're trying to catch the high of day, not that you're going to catch a high a day. Disregard all of that fugazy thinking. Just think logically if the market is going to top at 45627. Whether it leads to something small or something big, just throw that out of your brain.

Read the market and what is the market telling you when we were trading at 45627? Okay, at 11:45 Look at this ready. So watch. Here's the 1145 candle. Let me show you right here.

that would be the 1145 candle. All right. Now come over here to the option chain on the 445 or four. Uh, 456.

All right. So this is the 456 put option chain. All right. Going from 11:45 to 1146 or 11:47 right? So so on this drop, we get a alertable, tradable signal on the 456 puts.

We have a nice volume Spike here. Complete buying. Okay, so that tells me that I should be interested in the 456 is the 456 is. Since they're already in the money and have intrinsic value, there's less risk than the 455s, hence why we probably didn't get that.

What I would consider is a tradable signal on the 455s until the market already moved a little bit in that direction. But when you were trading at 45627 high of day, you got a tradable, alertable signal on the puts for the four five sixes. That's because they already had intrinsic value so people are more comfortable at the time shorting that run up within the monies as opposed to out of the monies. Okay, so anyways, at about 11:47 you got a signal to buy long.

Uh, or we basically buy the puts right. So if we look at the signal, the Signal's here and then demand the split demand to low is here. So basically from the initial Spike to split demand entry, those contracts are now up 197% Not bad. And even if you didn't hold them for that, and even if you just basically went first dip to first pop I Mean theoretically you know that jumped about 16% The first actual break up was 49% Um, so those are some things that we noticed at the high of day there.

or I know at the high of day. Um, there was also some call triggers and stuff like that. So if we look at some of the calls today, where did we juice up to, we juice up to about 455. 454 I Mean you were getting signals on 454s earlier signals on 455s.

Um, we'll take this. that's for 54s. take you to Blue and four five5 take you there. Okay, Um, what's the best time to monitor the 50? I Mean it's see and that's an so again.

I Um, show love. I mean to answer you simply it' be. Watch it on the 30 minute. Um, Also, it looks like the vix is now going into an uptrend.

That means volatility is kicking into the market. so volatility is starting to uptrend. So the likelihood that we see continued bearish activity on the Spy is pretty likely here. Um, so the last thing you want to be doing is being long bias.

Right now we had a long bias move at 10:30 Now we're back below the 50. So the Market's back bearish. So today we've done two signals. We've basically done three signals.

Today, we did one pre-market down, then we did one 11:00 up. and now we're back to down all right. Now let me show you what the vix looks like. You see that candle, See how the Spy just Tanked.

And now let's look at the volatility index. So you see how the volatility index is juicing through the roof right now. Again, that's because the S&P 500 is now. Um, it's now bearish.

right? So we just got a sell signal in the market again. But this time the sell signal matches up with the volatility index. The volatility index has gone into an uptrend. So let me show you this.

the volatility. And and aside from saying the volatility index, put it this way: volatility has been downtrending for a long time. Right Today we just went into an uptrend. All right.

So look at this ready. You see that red 50 SMA See that we're below it. That means the volatility is downtrending. Volatility is downtrending.

This was a false pop. or it was a breakout volatility increase. And then we just kind of been doing this lackluster. Trend below Trend below Trend below.

Boom. There it goes. See the 50. SMA That's right there.

So volatility is into an uptrend. Now That means people are getting a little more fearful, a little more scared on the market. Um, you know. And the reality is, is, uh, most of the retail Market doesn't Actually, most of the retail markets not actually fearful in this moment because they have no, no clue what the going on.

Um, so it's only really smart money that's fearful right now. and we're not even fearful. It just means that we see implied volatility increasing in the volatility index because the volatility index is in, is is in an uptrend now. Uh, and the Market's in a downtrend.

So if the Market's going to be in a downtrend and it's going to go down, you'd assume that volatility increases. People know it as the fear index. whatever. whatever.

Um, but you know, So that's just kind of how that all works, right? Market's in a downtrend, vix goes into an uptrend, Market goes down. Um, you know. And and the thing is, is like this: this isn't fearfulness, right? The market wouldn't really be fearful. Uh, in this instance, right? But um, and also like that you see that scam like that was probably like some ghost Wick something something.

Let's double check it out. Like, what? Like what is the scam? What is that? Uh, that's funny. Um, but anyways, yeah, I mean that's pretty much what it comes down to is. uh, the 15 minute has gone into an uptrend.

So let me show you real quick. The 15 minute 15 minutes usually your early precursor of an uptrend starting on volatility. So let's bring this up real quick. Uh, all right.

so watch this you see here. that's the 15minute 50 SMA This is the smallest of time frames that I use and I generally use it on the Vix because it does a good job as an early precursor to potential uh, bullish Trend starting upwards. So if we look the 15minute, Um, 50 SMA uptrend downtrend level on the Vix was 1273. Go into a 1 minute chart.

take a look at 1273, you're pretty much going to see a spike. All right. So you go to 1273 which is right there. See that right there.

Bing Bing bing bing bang. All right. So basically what you just saw here was the uh, volatility index going into an uptrend at at least on the 15minute. Also went into an uptrend on the 30 minute and you can see right there.

That's actually the back test of the well. No, it's not I got that wrong. Sorry. But yeah.

so like if you want to draw a pattern sure like there's like kind of like a pennant ascending triangle breakout over the 15minute 50 SMA. So you basically had what was like a little bit of an ascending triangle into the 15minute 50 SMA which dictates uptrend downtrend on a 15-minute scale. So essentially just had a pen and pan. or break out the 15minute 50 SMA go into an uptrend and bang.

Um, so that's that and so you know if we're going to get some sort of extended sell, move on the S&p500 Ideally, what we need to see happen is the markets need to minimum sustain 1274 to 1284. So pretty much what you could do right now is you can just draw out a Zone on the volatility index and pretty much say if the Market's going to have a continued sell from this point into tomorrow, maybe the next couple days or anything that's even somewhat decent, the Market Market must maintain over this zone right here of uh, 12 1285 to 1274. So pretty much that's the back test. Long on the volatility X as long as the Market's just going to keep the bed.

Um yeah, Cheers that 39 viewers. Come on peeps, we got to get our stream. You know, up to the trader TV lie with 4,000 people. but uh I I mean I don't even really think it I don't think it's really possible at this point like like for example like like let's see if I can find my YouTube stream today.

So let's do this. Let's go to new Incognito window see I said I was going to study but I'm not studying of course knew this is going to uh so let's go. So watch this. So uh, the title.

So the title of today's video is Stock Market Analysis live So let's go to an incognito window on YouTube and hopefully if if again if search queries are correct, I should come up. Oh, that's weird. Why wouldn't I be one of the first if I type in the exact title of my stream? There we are! Boom, let's go. so let's do this.

Nice. Finally, things might actually be turning around for us. I Like it good? Uh I'll answer a couple of questions here. Will anyone be in here still driving? What's up? Bob How's it going Bud? Um, what do you look for? What do you look for in the Spy one minute chart before you jump into another stock just to see? um I mean the reality is uh Caleb To your question, you know a lot of the times I would either be looking at like pretty much I mainly focus on the S&P 500 UPR Tqq Sqq different options I Actually find myself rarely trading uh, individual stocks these days it seems.

um, very rarely. Yeah, but anyways, so it better answer your question. I'm not really looking at the Spy to necessarily dictate trades in this current day and time on different equities per se on a one minute scale. Um, but pretty much if I were to be long equities, we would want to see that the stock market's in an uptrend.

So if the S&P 500 is downtrending, then normally I would not be seeking out actively to be long bias equities. um, like right now for example. um like right now if you look, let me bring it up. It's not on the chart.

There we go. So like right here. Pretty much put it this way below. Just just take these.

Take these lines right here. Take this: Zone You know and things can sometimes change and fast and it's not always perfect, but pretty much put it this way: market is below. um, the 50. SMA So like right now, I wouldn't actively seek out equities to be long because we're not uptrending on the Spy That doesn't mean that stocks can't move.

Um, you know that doesn't mean stocks have to move linear with the S&P 500. So again, to add to your question, uh, just assume other stocks will follow a spy unless there's significant risk of support. So um, basically the question you just asked is if I'm looking at the spy and it's going up, then I Just expect other stocks to go up Pretty much yes. But at the same time stocks have different correlation coefficients.

So pretty much what that means is, if you're going to use that logic of stock market's going up, stock should go up. That's true, but only with highly correlated um, assets or highly correlated stocks of the Spy. So you want the correlation between the S&P 500 and the specific security you're looking at to have a high correlation for the logic that you're using to work. For example, Um, like I can show you right now what I mean.

So here's a good way you can do it. So like it's pretty straightforward. Basically, your largest market cap stocks are generally going to follow closely. A close resemblance to the S&P 500.

Not entirely true, but pretty much the case. And if you ever want to get a better idea to see if in fact, your um, a stock that you're looking at does move similar to um, similar to, uh, your stock, you can do this so you can go to these studies and you can type in comparison. So we'll do comparison. We'll add this and we'll make this the S&P 500.

So we'll make this spy one second. it's coming on. So you see how it says comparison line SPX which is fine. I'll just make this spy because most people look at spy it seems.

Uh, so we'll do spy right? And this is going to add a little purple line on my chart so you can see that this line that I added to the Chart it's purple. It's the Spy so you can see it moves perfectly because we're on the Spy. Now, if I were to take this to something like AMC, you'll probably see that they don't move entirely. Um, linear together.

So look at this move like look at the um, you know, look at the relationship between it. So today the S&P 500, the purple line just slamming up right and look at AMC It gets a little bit of action, but not a lot, right? And that's because it's not as strongly correlated to the market. and that all comes down to uh, correlation coefficient of Securities and assets and blah blah blah blah. So um, so like, for example, let's go look at Apple right? So we go look at Apple All right.

So we put up Apple and now look at the look at the S&P 500 and the comparison chart right. They're very, very similar, right? They may not be perfect, but I mean they're They're pretty much perfect. So basically what we would say there is that this has a a very, very strong positive correlation. Okay, so much so that the correlation is probably like 0 90 80.

It's definitely above 08, probably 0 8590. Which means it's almost a one to one. Um, not entirely. But and you're you're almost never going to find something that's a complete oneto one.

uh, relationship as far as that goes. Um, you know, and then like, um, what else could we do here? So like, let's look at um, like for example, like let's let's go and look at uh, like I'll pull this up real quick. So like this is another thing you could do. like let's detach this so we could go look at something like this.

Let's go look at the market watch right? so we'll look at all this stuff. So this is. This is just a quick snapshot of what's looking like good, what's looking like so like I don't know. Let's go take up MC right? MRK So let's see Merc's down on the day.

MC Uh, so let's just just for fun. Like what's MRK All right. So look look at. look at how closely those are correlated.

like not not that they won't. Not that on some days they're not. um, but um, but yeah I mean that that's kind of it, right? And so if you're trying to diversify like you have a portfolio and the proper way to diversify a portfolio isn't just go. oh like I'm going to go buy some real estate and like, oh, I'm going to go buy some healthc care and I'm going to go buy some tech even though it is diversification, which it is because it's diversification of different sectors.

Um, if you haven't actually run like a linear test on it, uh, or some sort of correlation test on it, then do you really know how Diversified it is what I mean by that is, say you bought stock A and sector. Whatever. Whatever. and you come to find that all of these stocks you purchase amongst 10 different sectors are all positively correlated to the S&P 500 with like a08 or above.

That means they're all. They're almost all highly highly correlated. So regardless of you thinking that you're Diversified against a bunch of different sectors, Um, regardless, they're all so highly correlated to the S&P 500, that as long as it goes up or down, they're probably going to go up or down. So even though you so basically diversification, you want to have negatively correlated uh, assets and securities amongst your portfolio.

some that are highly correlated, some that would be negative correlated. Therefore, when Apple goes up, my utilities go, or when Apple goes down, my utilities go up ahead of some of the loss. And that's basically how you go with diversification of portfolio. Which means you're not going to get exuberant gains, but you're not going to lose your money.

So yeah, yeah, we can look at Tesla Tesla I can already tell. has been kind of doing its own thing a little bit from the market today. it's not the other day it was. let's see what day was that? Yeah, doesn't really matter.

but yeah today and even see like look at Tesla's bucking the trend right now. So you can see Tesla has relative strength to uh to the market today, right? So you know those are quick snapshots and so on so forth. So yeah, yeah, all that, um I mean it all. It literally everything works the same in the market.

That's the other thing that you have to understand too. is pretty much like everything literally functions the exact same. It's just different volatility measures. So um, stocks move more volatile than the S&P 500.

So the strategy that we use for the Uh S&P 500 would be the same thing you look at for stock. So like I can show you right now. let me get pull this up one second or we going to be it. That's not the one I don't really need that.

Maybe it's this Sure. Oh yeah. so let's take a step back real quick and remember what we said about the market Kind of going bearish. So remember what's mapped this off.

So I'll make this line right here. We're going to make that real big edit Properties: Five: Bing Bang Boom right? So right there you see that red line that I put on the chart. That is what that's the 50. SMA So you notice that huge snap and fall off the cliff.

there. What happened? You went into a downtrend, right? So pretty much the entirety of the stock I Want to see En Tires? But Bas The reality is is the reality is the market went into a downtrend there. So if you're looking at the S&P 500 chart or you're watching a YouTube stream whether it's Trader TV live or I don't even know anybody else anymore that streams on YouTube but but pretty much any YouTube stream any chat room uh Twitter page newsletter. Doesn't matter if they did not tell you that the market entered a downtrend today once we broke this price on that candle, then I don't know what to tell you.

but that's where the market entered a downtrend today. Now how long does the downtrend persist? Again, slightly unknown to known, but that's the bottom line, right? And what do you know? where is the biggest volatility drop today? Right after you go into a downtrend, right? same thing. Um, if someone today is you know stream it doesn't even matter, right? Same thing like if you're looking at the vix here. If someone didn't tell you that the vix went into an uptrend today, see like look at the vix is all the way down looks like.

But the fact of the matter is it did actually start uptrending today right there in that gray box. So unless someone is pointing out to you that the market on the volatility index started uptrending there and then the market went into a downtrend all within like the last 20 minutes, then you might want to seek out a different stream. Um, and that's you know it's only a small piece of the puzzle. There's there's a lot to it.

So so yeah, the the objective is just to come on stream with you guys, teach you a couple things, show you a couple things, hopefully put you closer on the right side of the market. Things like a that um hold on real quick. I Want to bring up trading view because I can already see this being a situation where like the Market's probably going to scam and that's the thing too. Like is like the market loves to throw scams and you kind of have to be able to see that coming.

So like what we're going to do here is we're going to go look and first and foremost like basically just see what's crackalack and do we even have confirmation of the breaks? Um, I'm going to remove a lot of this stuff and just clean it up. So this was our break right here. So number one, I'm going to do this so you got that. We don't even have a negative Cross of the systems so we're going to do this.

Oh yeah, by the way, like if you guys wanted a trade recommendation again I gave it a while ago and that was you should be bearish as the Market's coming through the 50, SMA you wouldn't be bullish. So two things could have happened from the stream that were actionable. which was once you broke the 50th SMA you closed your long and you could have avoided some draw down there. Um, or you went short below before the break of the 50 or after the break of the 50 could have made money in a short.

So in what we just saw was you either you took a short made money or you just went back to cash and preserved your Capital That's all you did right? So you know when people talk about like trade alerts and this alerts and that I mean like you literally that's what that is. you were just alerted that the market would go into a downtrend. What's going to happen if it goes into a downtrend, it's going to go down. So what are you going to do Either going to make money shorting or you're going to protect yourself from losing? Those were the actions right? So um and then aside from that, the only other actions and stuff that like we really look at is like sometimes some option stuff.

um anyways I'm just feeling on. but I mean yeah it could go on for days. But the bottom line is the Market's in a downtrend. So as as long as it's in a Down Trend you're not supposed to trade long bias unless you want to be the one that takes on additional risk.

Tries to play the high low game. High low game only works if we remain in consolidation. If the high low if we don't remain in consolidation then you get swept down. You're that sucks.

So again, you have to differentiate between what you want to do here. Like you know, who's to say that the market can't bounce from here and go all the way back up there. I mean yeah, it could happen. but I'm just not going to be the one to do it because I know we broke the 50.

SMA And the rules say that the probabilities when you're below it are are pretty good. You can continue down right? So why would I buy this low hoping to bring it back up and then put it back into an uptrend when I could just wait to see if the market goes into an uptrend and then buy then so as opposed to being the one to try to reverse the trend up, I could just be the one that waits for the trend to to go back up right? So anyways, uh, we're getting a little bit of a breakdown. That's that's on the 30 minute ye. All right.

So wait, hold on. let me go back to this chart here. that's a five, that's a three. So you have one candle Clos below or sorry one Circle Clos Below on that.

We have two here. We got probably a couple there. so we are getting some. the starting of some confirmation of a cell signal.

uh, based on price data intervals. Basically, that just means the price has sustained below the 50 SMA for a long enough time to start considering confirmation. Would still like to see some larger time frames like the 5 minute uh box size go into. uh, have two two negative closes below to probably give more confirmation.

The other thing that we want to Pro The other thing I can already assume is if this this short move is going to work then they're going to respect the breakdown of the 50 SMA 1 minute or 5 minute bearish Vwap. So this was the breakdown. That volatility drop. That's where we went into a downtrend.

So if the Market's going to remain down, it should follow the one and or five minute volume weighted average price of the new downtrend that we just started. So I am going to there it goes. It's getting it's It's lagging a little bit so we have breakdown one, then we have snap two and so pretty much that's the way it would look. so as long as the market does not get back over.

basically these vaps here, the trend's just going to get smacked down ready. Watch. You're can have fun watching this all in real time. So now what you're watching me do is take a 30 minute downtrend signal.

Now track the one minute volume participation of such downtrend signal. What is the logic here? The logic is if the market just entered a downtrend and it's going to stay down, then the last thing it should do is go back up above the volume weighted bearish price of the downtrend, right? Let's rephrase it another way. If the Market's going to go into a downtrend and it's going to be successful, then that means that it's It's going to keep going down and things are going to get sold and people would probably be shorting. And if that's the case, the last thing the Bears want to do is get taken out or squeezed out.

So what's going to have to happen? they have to stay below their average share price so they don't get squeezed out. So from this breakdown to this candle to this bounce, to that drop, to this bounce, all of that, the participation of this entire breakdown. the average share price right now is here. So that's the 1 minute scale so that that that's like the lowest that we would go.

in this instance if we were to look at a 5 minute it's going to be a little higher or was that in a two minute I might have been in a twom minute. No. I don't know. Anyways, but here's the five minute.

So the five minute has all the way up to here. So it's like theoretically market and I'm not going to get into theoreticals here. We're not going to do all that. but just bottom line is you know, like the lowest time frame that you would even consider here would be like okay, the Market's in a downtrend Trend If it's going to continue staying down in the immediate with strength, then the last thing then then that means that the one minute Trend should hold down.

Does that mean the one minute trend is going to hold down? No. But those are the things that you should be seeing if the downtrend is going to be persistent, right? So so like for you know. So that's what I'm saying is you have you just prepare yourself right. You watch all the angles, you understand how people are participating in markets and so on so forth.

Um I'm not trading this currently I had a long position on then I was had some carpet cleaners come by. but basically basically this pump this breakout started buying this, bought this dip into this dip and then rallied up, sold some, then I stopped out. uh, some through this candle, right? So when the market went back into a downtrend, that's where I closed out the last bit of my long right. And now now why? Because the Market's in a downtrend if it wants to go back in an uptrend.

Cool. If not, then whatever, right? The aggressive stock f is the short. But then you're betting against the economy. You're betting against the 401ks and you know, So that's it.

Let me bring back up. Uh, the stream there. Um yeah, you could go short now and hold until you. Well we don't even have a bearish cross to begin with.

So um, but yeah, I mean you could, you could go short, right? But you you are kind of late to that move. Um, basically the way it works for me is is as far as like the breakdowns go. So if you get a breakdown it's generally going to be like the first push back would be the most likely to get short into for a Chase move. Then what you need to see is you need to see the market flop pretty hard.

That way you create a true negative cross and then from there my short entry would be off the cell signal V up. So again, I'm not I'm not crazy on being bearish here. Um, as far as like a big hold yet. Um.

Also I think the Market's going to pretty much remain bullish throughout the rest of 2024 with some slight correct when I say correction. Basically I Don't expect that we're going to have any big drastic sell-offs in the market. and as far as sell-offs Go I mean yes, we might have some down days that don't look good, but I'm not expecting any. Bare Market nothing I'm not expecting we're going to see 10 10% Corrections We'd be lucky if we get a five, we probably only going to stick in this like 2% maybe 3% drops that then get bought back up into buy signals.

So as far as like being actively short on sell signals I think it's best to like trade them very quick, try to make money on them if you're going to, and then that's it. Um, and then part of the reasoning behind that too is if you look at again the weekly chart, let's look at the weekly chart. The weekly chart is what it's over the 50. SMA it's up trending, which by the way, you guys wouldn't know this, but pretty much however long ago when we got over the 50 as man, that's where the market went into an uptrend, right? So Market tried to go into an uptrend couldn't sustain.

Then it goes into an uptrend, right? So that's the breakout of the uptrend. That's the back test of the uptrend. So this is this is where I Most recently added long back into my long-term portfolio. Literally, That red candle.

Not the green one, but the red one there. right? Yep, that one. So that red candle? There is where I was adding back long into the market. Uh, for my long-term portfolio, that is.

Um, so again, you can see we're longterm. We're in an uptrend, right? So simultaneously, when you had your bare Market What? You're below the 50. Just just like this. Ready.

So look at this. So this is the breakdown of the long-term weekly 50. SMA There's the back test and bare Market push. Take you over here.

there's a breakout of the 50. SMA Up, there's your back test of the 50 push. So pretty much the same thing that you just saw here. There was the same thing that happened right here.

Okay, it's just inverse. Um, so as far as the longterm goes, we're up trending on the weekly daily. we're uptrending 4 Hour We're up trending 30 minute. it's around right now.

Um, but yeah, so that that's that's kind of that. So as far as like the shorting side of thing goes, it's like yeah, I Mean we might have a bearish move, but it's like theoretically going short is going against the long-term Trend right now in the daily, the weekly, the 4 Hour every single long-term Trend You're going against All right? So this is like the back test of hold. Let me pull this up all right. So there's your back test of the 5 minute Vwap.

You see that? So we push through the one minute, which again, one minute's one minute, right? So you can kind of see the pop through the 1 minute. All good. where does it take you to? It takes you to the 5 minutes. So right now the 5 minute volume weighted average price uh, is getting its test.

That's pretty much what's happening. And let me just double check. but I think the 30 minutes is 30 minute 50 SMA is all the way up here. Yeah, so this doesn't Again, you're not long bias the market right now.

You're just not okay. if you want to scalp it, do trades like that. That's cool, but you're just not right now. Short squeeze in pending could go short now and then hold until we get a bullish cross.

I Mean yeah, So that's the thing is. Yeah, you could go short, right? You just have you have to decide what TR kind of game you're trying to play. That's all right. So you can go short if you want to go short and just keep your stops somewhere with closes over the 50.

SMA As far as a short trade goes for me, I'll probably wait until we get a true uh, cross cell signal as opposed, just a fluctuation above or below 50. So for me, I'd be waiting for a true break or a true cell signal cross and then that would allow me to Anchor a new bearish volume weighted average price sell signal vwap down. then I'd look bearish into the sell signal VAP All of that pretty much means no. I'm not not short.

Don't have an entry on this. Where is it it? I got a lot of char? Go here. M Oh yeah, uh. Side note: If the market does not hold down the volume weighted average prices like on the short term like 1 minute 5 minute of the break, then it just pops all those people back to the 50.

SMA Um, that's it's also what we tweeted this day this morning and there's logic to that, right? So think about it this way: if the 50 SMA creates a downtrend and then you track the volume of the downtrend break and the volume weight, average price of the downtrend break doesn't hold, then all those people shorting usually get squeezed back to the origination point of the short, right? It's just common anyways. So I got tons of rules in my head, but um, so you said max chart. So here is a year weekly chart. Yeah, So this is what the max chart.

This is what the 20-year weekly chart on uh Microsoft looks like. Yes, um so so we C it is a cell signal but it it's hard it's it's kind of hard to categorize it. so I call it I call it early signal and then like sell signal. So it's like if you wait for moving averages to cross, sometimes you'll get too late of an entry.

sometimes you'll catch a good Trend. But objectively the moves are go Always going to start from above or below the 50. SMA So the real I mean that's just it, right? So it's just it's just if you wait for things to cross, it's a little slower which can put you at. So if you determine your buy or your entry on the actual cross, you're going to buy high on a bull move and usually you'd be shorting low on a sell move.

But if you base your gauge on above or below the 50 SMA you can get in much much earlier. But you can also increase uh, the likelihood of false signals. Um, but I mean bottom line is the market goes positive over the 50 goes bearish under the 50 and then once we get a big enough move in that direction, it will then create a cross on the system and then once I get a cross on the system. That's when I can or in incorporate a uh additional strategy onto that which is what I call sell signal and Buy Signal Vwb so you know um but yeah so that that's pretty much it.

over under the 50 is bullish and bearish. that's it. The signal would be the you know what we call the confirmed signal would be the cross of the 10 and the 50 but uh we don't always wait for the cross of the 10 and the 50 cuz then you can be slow and you can be late right but in but the easiest thing for people ble to do would just be wait for it AC cross right but again your brisk your your returns could be slightly skewed if you're getting in on bad signals and like for example the only way you're going to make money if you buy on a cross of this of the smas is if the market goes into a full Trend move. if the market just does a quick push and then recovers then you're going to be buying the top whereas if the market just does a quick push and then Falls over.

but I bought the break of the 50 then it's fine just like today. So when we go look at the uh spy today so watch this ready. So let me explain this all right as far as risk goes, all right So this was where was it, It was like basically it was like right here to start the day. All right.

So this is how it would work and this might be off by a little bit. But like right here yesterday at the close the candle closes below the 50 SMA So you would go to cash. So like for example, if you were along the S& P500 like if you had a swing trade on, let's say you bought back in the low of October or whatever Market goes below the 50 SMA you would go back to cash. So let let's just say you're trading $110,000 so you would take that $10,000 and move it back to cash.

and then you wake up the next day and the Market's below the 50 below the 50 below the 50 below the 50, it breaks out the 50 if you can catch this candle before it boners up on you and you can get a good feel. Great so you'd be long here. If you can't get there, then you're basically looking to be long as long as the Market's over the 50. SMA.

So today, so yesterday you'd be in cash at the end of the day and then at uh, 10:40 today you deploy money back into the market and then you would catch this nice move. if you held it for forever, eventually you'd lose. But the concept being is if we know that over the 50 SMA which is right there is bullish and below it is bearish and my entries are as close as possible to when the trend shifts. So when we go from bearish to bullish, my entry is here or on this dip, That means my average price is just going to be this.

It'll be right here, right? It's just going to be basically. so my entry is normally going to be my exit. So so when you have situations where the market flip-flops back and forth, it goes bullish, Then it goes bearish. Then it goes bullish.

Then it goes bearish. It's okay as long as you're trading over under the 50 SMA Because if the market goes up and then it reverses and goes down within a short period of time. within that short period of time, It doesn't give the market enough time to move the 50 SMA dramatically from where you originally entered. So if in the event you are getting false signals like this is, this is what we would call a false signal.

It's not even a false signal, right? Because look at the market went over the 50 and what Bang right? And then the market went below the 50 and bang right? So you're getting positive movement. On the break of the 50, you're getting negative bearish movement on the break of the 50. How long does it sustain itself? That's another question. It's not a question of whether or not it works right.

It's a question of whether or not how long is this Buy Signal going to persist before we go into a sell signal That that's usually your main concern, right? So as long as your entries right are close to the 50 SMA Like today, let's take it to a 30 minute. Let's go to a 10day 30 minute chart, right? Let's delete all this. So ready yesterday, you went to Cash this morning. it breaks over the 50.

SMA You're you're bullish and you're bullish on this dip. So your entries would be here. if you did it right. You should be basically somewhere around here ready.

And then what happened? Look, you see the candle snap and go down. Why? Because everyone who got long for the Buy Signal today just stopped out. That's why you got the volatility down right. The volatility down here has I Mean who knows, like maybe maybe maybe Joe Biden said something today I Don't even know like half the time I Don't even pay attention News cuz I Know it's just primarily a scam.

and when I say a scam, it's just what I call manipulation tactic of psychology. That's just it, right? It's just all it is. It's just news Is news is news is nothing. News is the world would be better without news quite frankly.

Um, like you know you can, you cannot read news in the stock market or your day-to-day life and then go outside and you will breathe oxygen just fine. Uh, you'll probably still be able to walk, still be able to talk, still have friends, still have your car. Life will be be good God will still love you. Um, you know.

So as far as the news goes, it's it's quite irrelevant to the sake of your well-being usually. Um, so yeah. you know that volatility candle down. You know when that thing snapped down I'm sure someone's like oh there's got to be news like we're going to look for the news, it's like no bro I mean you just went into a downtrend and you just took out everybody who went long today I got caught in that I was caught in this candle down I was cuz I was long off.

This move took some profit, held some Runners and then what do it do? It came down to the 50, broke 50 and stopped out. Slam. There you go. So so so again, as far as like signals providing these massive moves, it will happen.

and it won't happen. When it doesn't happen, you'll have a situation like today where you got to buy. Well actually look at this. yesterday you got got a sell, then today we got a buy and now we're back to a sell.

So Within like a less than a 24-hour period, there's been three signals. There's been three tradable up and down signals, right? And remember, now, if you think about it, wouldn't it have been just best to buy here on the low and sell on the top? Yeah, it would have It absolutely would have right? Um, but again, that is reversal trading which has nothing to do with Trend Okay so again I could have tried to pick this bottom which we have supports and we talked about a about like that's what I'm saying like the reversals. All of that right when we're talking of this and we're talking over under 50. SMA Don't think that we don't want you to find a nice reversal point or that you can't right or that we don't or we don't talk about those, we do.

But the best thing that you can do for yourself is to be on the right side of the trend. So so as opposed to me trying to tell you guys how to find some magical support in a show of volume and price and how to know things of the aside from doing all of the fugazy magical sorcery, let's just keep it simple which would be below is bearish. above is bullish. Below is bearish.

above is bullish. And if you know that you will almost never be on the wrong side of the market, you could on every single CNBC host that talks to people live on TV You would run through half the kids streaming on YouTube and twitch these days, right? Because you would know that today at 10:00 the Market's positive and then Market goes up. and then today you know that below here Market's bearish so there's a close right so you will have a very keen understanding of market movement. All right.

I Took this kid this. uh, he's not really a kid, he's in high school and he works at Oasis which is a gol which actually I'm going to play golf at about 300 p.m. let me check my phone. So anyways, there's a kid, really good golfer on the high School golf team and uh, anyway, he's on the high school golf team and he's basically like G want to get in stocks and who else better to talk to than you and I was basically okay.

Um, the first thing I told him was don't do not go to YouTube do not read any book, don't Not that I said don't read any book I said don't go to YouTube um follow nobody on on Twitter Don't listen to any websites, don't pay attention to any of the advertisements. any of the you're broker say um I said just just disregard all of that and just start here and you'll know how the market moves better than 90% of the market and sure enough, took him just a couple weeks and he goes I'm making some green trades yes, I'm having some red trades, but for the most part I kind of understand how the market functions as far as going up and going down and going up and going down. and then aside from that, there's a bajillion other things you can learn reversals and Fibonacci and volume and options. and Theta and Divergence and RSI and Macd and stochastics and news and pumps and scams and penny stocks and blah blah blah blah blah.

None of it actually matters unless you know the direction of the market. See, So started him there. He's only been at a couple weeks, he's making a little bit of money, he's happy, he doesn't have a lot of money, so it's you know. But it's all fun for him just getting his feet wet.

But you know what better way to get your feet wet and not destroy yourself Because you know when it's bullish and know when it's bearish. Like for example, if we look back at this whole move, okay let's go back on a um uh damn. 90 days or 20 days. 30 days are fine.

So like right here, right? That was the Buy Signal right? Well not the Buy Signal that was one. Buy Signal So there's a Buy Signal which means you're bullish and the only time we got signal to potentially be bearish was here ready. Look at that. it's clear as day up.

Then we broke the 50 and there was a sell attempt right? and then the next day back to a Buy Signal. So you're you're on. You're long long long long long long long long long long long. And today there it is.

There's the break of the 50 attempted bounce back up scam pop back down. So again, there's only been since like the October low. There's been now one attempted sell and two Sl3. So there's only really been three times that you've actually should have considered to potentially short the S&P 500 over the course of like the last month.

Well, yeah, about yeah. So over the last month, there's only been three moments where you should have actually considered Trend selling potential Trend change on the S&p500 Yes, you could have shorted tops and scalp tops and all of that in between I don't care about that I Mean, yes, you, you could have done that. Sure. But as far as Trend goes, we've only had three moments where you could have potentially saw the market turn into a downtrend itself out last month.

So if like, this whole month, you're like oh, I'm going to we're going to short this and every single you know and every kid on YouTube or Twitter it's like oh, it's time to short the market. It's like yeah, bro, no stop, stop, stop talking. Uh, but actually no, they should keep talking because everyone's got to start somewhere I Remember I shorted dumbass tops like that too. So it's like you know it.

It's just the nature of the game, the evolution of a Trader That's all it is. Um, the more you know, the better you are. um which is contradictory to the keep it simple thing. Um, I think you can keep it simple with knowing a lot of things I actually don't think I think you? Yeah Anyway, so so yeah, it's just it's you know like this is what I mean this is what I think is this is what I find is comical after so many years, right? is we go into a Buy Signal here and the Market's just exploding and some kids like yeah, dude, we're we're going to short this market and we're going to make it crash.

It's like why there's no reason for it, there's no signal in the market. there's absolutely nothing saying we should short the market. but here they are it. We're going to slam some PS and we going to the the world's going to end and Biden tripped up the stairs and whatever.

Whatever. right? Who knows, No stop. Hold on I got a phone call coming in. All right.

So yeah, that was funny. that was. uh, that was my nephew. my nephew messaged me on Instagram I think like two nights ago or something was like sell all your Bitcoin which I already sold a bunch off this rally I sold most of my Bitcoin at like 36,000 or something like that and I've had a price target of 42 41 42 43.

Logically, if we get the retail space to get a little exuberant and euphoric and get them to blow up out of proportion, maybe we can get a 48 to a 50, but um I had to I Had to think logically and unemotionally so I decided to lock some profit at $36,000 and will probably close out majority around 41 42, 43 as that is the expected long Target I've projected for over a year plus. Now now we're getting a little close and as we've gotten Clos to that, you can kind of see CNBC is bringing on some people to pump up Bitcoin And now you're hearing the news about the Bitcoin ETF approval coming in January And then you got a bunch of these Twitter accounts. You're going oh Bitcoin to 160,000 And so again, you're starting to see the herd mentality flood into to Bitcoin now that we've had a positive directional move that doesn't look like some downtrend. So now that we're getting some activity, the upside: people are checking their Bitcoin accounts and they're finally getting back into the green.

And and you know the the Euphoria is getting there. they're getting happy. The mainstream media Matrix is propaganda pushing you to buy Bitcoin Now to me, that seems like we're nearing what could be the end of a short-term bullish cycle phase. Um, as a little I know it's it call Mania but um, uh, Euphoria is slightly there.

not entirely. We're not quite there yet. We're kind of in the phase of like everyone wants it to go higher, so they're doing their best effort to pump it. Um, and if that ends up working then we'll get more of the Euphoria uh where everyone that was trying to get it to go up a little more goes Yeah, see we we did it.

We were right Bitcoin's bull slam. So I have my thesis and that pretty much is. we're supposed to sell Bitcoins around 42 40 and this is all in relationship to timing markets. This has nothing to do with long-term investing.

Um, even though a year plus is long-term investing anyways, you know I think I think arguably we see Bitcoin about 42 43,000 in that area. maybe 41 and then Smart Money is probably going to sell it. Um, you know in my opinion. I I totally think and I don't know for sure.

but again, normally you just go with the buy the rum or sell the news until you're proven wrong. So as far as I'm concerned the whole Bitcoin ETF debacle is buy the rumor, uh, sell the news and uh, ironically, right before I even really thought of the whole Bitcoin ETF thing and and the approval of it and when that's going to happen I always projected the Bitcoin supposed to go back up to 43,000 or 41 or whatever. I've said basically anything from 41 to 43. you can go check my Twitter page.

I've been say it for a year and a half now. Um, and now that we're basically there I'm seeing every other single account on the internet calling for 43,000 which is like awesome. Do it. Maybe push us back.

Push us there. Hopefully we get there. Um, so I've always just expected that about 43,000 we should be selling. Bitcoin Then Bitcoin's either going to go through a consolidation phase where you're not going to do it's not going to really return you anything so you just kind of sit through a headache.

uh, or we end up going through a little bit of a sell phase before we rally up. So basically we're on what I would call a um, intermediate bullish phase before consolidation to pullback before a greater bull move. So you know, do what you please do what you want. But I'm probably going to lock profit on Bitcoin to the 41 43s, 48 50s if we're lucky, and Retail Market does something stupid and blows up the price more than they should.

Hopefully they do. Um, and then from there. uh, I would assume consolidation, a little bit of selling before a new bull market or bull more of a bull market for that matter, and then you know after the next bull market. and and so basically, if Bitcoin continues to follow, follow Cycles the way it has been, you know, um, for what it's worth, then after our next big bull run, I already know where I'm going to buy the next crash on Bitcoin like I've already projected like one's bit like let's just say Bitcoin went to 200,000 and then did like like let's actually pull up the Bitcoin chart real quick but all I'm saying is I've already projected where I would buy the next stock not stock market Bitcoin Crash I already know as as cocky as that sounds Yes I already know where I wanted to play money for the next crash that could be 3 years from now.

but literally I do I already know where I want to buy it? So I could I can't tell you now because I don't actually know what the price is going to be because it's going to continuously update until it happens. But like you know, when that becomes a thing, I'll let you know and we'll post it. and sure enough, uh, you'll have the info. but like right now I guess it doesn't really make sense because it I can't really tell you the price Target because I don't know because it hasn't happened yet.

like I know how I'm going to derive my price Target But where that price Target ends up being is is the question? All right? So it looks like we're getting a little bit of a cross here on the Spy So H Okay, well and if that's the case, where is we at? What is it? do we even have? We don't even have five minute five minute. Still don't have more than two. So here's here. Look at this ready.

So remember earlier when I said I would like to see two red circles close below the 50. So again, this red line here. 45450 That's the 50. SMA See that red circle See's only one right? That's only one candle.

Clos that's only one price interval close below. I Like to see two before I try to confirm a sell signal. so I only have one right? So from the moment we broke down and we sold down, there's only one close so far below that. That's not enough price confirmation below a level for me to confirm that this is a true break yet Doesn't mean it doesn't mean that it could.

It could very well be the best breakdown in the world. and I mean sweet I just still haven't been confirmed of that. Um I arguably have gotten confirmed if I adjust my settings to slightly weaker. so if I adjust my settin