Good morning everybody! welcome back to the channel! Appreciate you guys tuning in with me this morning again. I'm just gonna simply run through the market as we normally do, so just gonna pop the screen on first. This is going to be sort of the larger view of things. All right.

This is our weekly chart on the Spy Pretty much we're paying attention to this red line on the top. So I'm gonna put it simply: that's your all-time high: Rejection: Slight pushover Under Down Rejection Rejection rejection. Pretty much as long as the market is below this, then we do not have a new bull Market. Okay, you can see here.

we pushed through it, sold down, broke back down below, and continued. So there will and can be times of uncertainty even with this, even though we've seen it reject. Very clean here. Clean here, clean here, and pretty much there as well.

There could still be times where it gets a little faky, So uh, it's best just to understand that this is a volume weighted average Trend and the concept being that until the market is sustaining Above This Which means we break above it, we hold pullbacks over it and don't break back below. We can't even start to assume that we started a new trending bull market. We have to only assume that everything is still counter. Trend Bounces in a bear Market Okay, so this is a nice trending rally up, but it's below.

Therefore, it's not a bull market. Trend It's a bear. Market Rally Counter Trend Rally to the Greater Bearish Trend Currently okay and I Don't know if I did this with you guys? Um, yeah. I just did that yesterday so we won't go through that.

but yeah, alrighty. so uh yeah, pretty much right on Dudes, we are bearish still below that level. Granted, there is a little Gap fill here that pretty much iron a ton of people have been talking about for a long time. Now that's about like 420-ish 421 area.

We are still expecting that the market can rally to that price point, fill that Gap and then continue rolling over. Therefore, if that were to occur, we're going to get a situation that looks similar to that where we break through a bit, fall back under. so we have the bear. Market Trend Gap Fill here, push above, fill back, under, roll right that that is very well still in play.

Okay, now before we talk more on V webs, we're going to pull this chart over and we're going to look at, uh, pretty much these two bottom left charts. Okay, so when we zoom in, all right, just paying attention to the red and the green moving average. Okay, when you have a bunch of moving averages, it can get slightly more confusing because you're like, oh, which one are you looking at? how do you know which one to pay attention to? Yada yada yada. But the reality is moving averages are like kind of like lines that create sequences if you may.

So, a common sequence you see is when the 50 SMA breaks the price goes to the hundred, right? Um, you know that like that's just a common one. And you can even see it here on the hourly chart. When the price breaks the 50, it goes to the 100, right? That that's a very common one. You see when the price breaks the 10, it falls to the 50..

Um, and it's not necessarily. you have to predict that it's going to happen before it happens sort of thing. But um, it can give you. Um, you know, it's like it's like reading right sequence.

It's like being able to read sequences on a chart. Um, and how things move on average right? Hence a moving average. So on average, what can happen if the price breaks the 10 right? we can follow the 50. the price broke to 10.

Here it didn't go to the 50. Oh sorry, but look here. price breaks 10 goes to 50. price breaks 10 goes to 50.

et cetera et cetera. Et cetera, price breaks 50 goes to 100. All right, price breaks over 10 goes to 50. You see it.

price breaks over 10 goes to 50. So it's not that it's a guaranteed thing that's going to occur, but it's a common sequence of events that you would see on average. hence the moving average. Okay, so looking at today, um, or while talking about past couple days first, okay, where I'm drawing that line right there.

That's a bearish cross. All right. So that's a sell signal, right? So that's a cell signal. And since then, Market's been going down.

All right. The market cannot and will not trade bullishly until the market wants to get acceptance over the 50.. So remember, you don't control the market and you never will. The Matrix The days they control the market.

Okay, and that list of days is people we don't know and we'll never hear of probably. And Jerome Powell has something to do with it too. Okay, so you have the 50 moving average. All right.

So you got a bearish Crops markets below the 50.. All right, that's Barish still below the 50. that's bearish. You can see it popped over a little bit, popped over a little bit, right? Market Tried, but ultimately failed.

So the concept here is is when the market is ready and it does in fact shift over the 50. SMA with strong buying and breaks up through it, then we're probably shifting momentum back up and this is all short-term active trading analysis. With that being said, you can see this is a bearish cross. So theoretically until the 10 is back over the 50, there is no new Buy Signal Okay, so you can see here, we just break through the 50 a little bit cell back down, break through the 50, a little bit, sell back down.

But did the 10 over cross? No. So this is where you play with a double-edged sword. That is that waiting for a cross in many instances can put you late to a move, whereas trading above and below the 50 can put you in the beginning of a move. So like today or yesterday, you can see we broke over the 50.

Again, you could be like, okay, we're trying to shift, but then this morning we gap down. right? That's because we don't yet have a true Buy Signal which is the 10 crossing the 50. Anyways, don't want to confuse you guys too much. So to put it simply, this is where the 50 SMA was.

Uh, to end the day yesterday on the 30 minute scale. So when we go and look at what the price action looked like after hours, what does it look like? Okay, it looks like the market pushed over for a second, held one pullback, pushed up, then it just remained under. and then what happens? the overnight sell-off does. So look at that.

I Mean that's pretty clear. you're over under is the 50. SMA We get to the 50. SMA Say you want to be long.

Okay, so it breaks out by the first pullback. Then you get three candles in your direction. Okay, that's once it comes back down and breaks below 50, you close your trade. You're no longer in.

Why? Because over 50 bullish? under 50? Bearish. So if you were to get long on the pullback here, you'd be long at 4 12 45. And if you were to stop out at the 50, you'd be stopping out at 4 12, 44, 4 12 43 you lose two cents. Okay, no big deal.

Now we go break down. You can sell the pullback into it, sell to pull back into it. So now your stop would be 12.47 ish. Or you know, maybe you give it five cents, whatever you determine.

But generally stopping out as close as you can too, it's pretty good idea. But then ultimately overnight leads to a big gap down and we sell off. Okay, so now the price goes down to 409.86 So what's 409.86 Really nothing? I have no moving averages that I would be watching here on this chart. Okay, but we might be on something else here.

Yep, almost okay. So now what we do is we come in, we look at some anchor V webs. Now these anchor View apps is here in green are all in relationship to buy signals so that was a good Buy Signal We had a while back that Anchor View app held many many times so we kind of watched that one. Um, and then also here you can see this is our sell Signal View app.

This was basically we got a sell signal. That's a view. would go Now it's a bear view up there. That was a Reese Buy Signal So pretty much this V web here is 409.55 So for to Mark out 409.55 it comes down to there.

you can quite get that one. Um, not that we're supposed to. but ultimately you know to put it simply, we are on a sell signal. We had a bearish gap down.

so theoretically the market is not bullish until the price is back over for 12.35 So pretty much you're going to remain on the bare side of the move until the market gets back over 4 12.35 And if we were to run a continuation V web today, we probably already hit it. but let's see what ends up happening. Maybe not. Oh, this really big can't even.

well I Guess Yeah, never mind. Excuse Me: Yes we can. we can go there, but it's not gonna populate on this screen. so if we were to take it here, it would have to be like this.

At the break of the 50s, there's two that we could run we could do about here. I Mean we can do the High I Mean it's not really going to be the best, but we can also do the break of the 50 SMA which was right about there and that's where that comes into. Yeah, Okay, so remember earlier how we talked about, um, talked about the break of the 50 SMA So the breakdown of the 50 SMA happens at 4 12 68. So you can think of 4 12 68.

breaking down as a new you know actionable sell signal in the market from here. Okay so if we're to Anchor a volume weighted average price to the break of that or even like the re-test so we break and then we retest. If we do that, that generally gives you a good volume weighted average Bearish Trend to trade into many times. So if we were to do that, this is what it looks like.

where that red view app is now right right there and it catches that top. So again, if we look at 4 12 45 which is like right here and I actually did this slightly wrong, it'd be like right there. Okay so if we anchor The View app to about 4 12 45 41246 Area where does the volume weighted average price for the bearish trend come into play right here? Okay, so you can see Market sells off bounces where back to that view app and sells down All right. So that's a common thing you'll see.

So arguably we've got this like flag Trend up so only Above This level where we start to kind of Pop more. but as long as you're below that, the trend in the immediate will remain down. So this is becoming your short term. Over under for now.

which is four like four eleven, oh, seven, four eleven ten, etc etc. So 4 11 10 is going to be an over under for you going into this morning's trading day. Uh yeah. So with that being said, I'll see you guys the next video.

Take care.