A lot of big updates within congress coming this week. Here is a recap of the future of our economy, the way things are headed and my thoughts on some additional stimulus ideas such as the $5000 loan.
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Morning Brew Economic Piece May 12th:
When an athlete gets hurt, all they think about is the timeline for getting back on the field. The same goes for an injured economy: How long will it take to recover?
Probably years
Economists were hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery: a rapid slide down followed by a quick climb back. But many are scaling expectations back to a Nike swoosh-shaped recovery in which output may not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021 (or later).
Even worse would be a W-shaped recovery, where the economy weathers one recession only to faceplant into a second.
“If a second downturn were to flare up, it’s far from clear that Congress would be ready to offer trillions more to enable businesses to survive yet another round of months-long shutdowns,” the AP reports.
Recoveries don’t happen evenly
A recession’s full effects can take years to ripple out. The Great Recession technically ended in June 2009, yet bank failures peaked in 2010. And as late as 2013, state and local governments were still slashing jobs.
81% of small businesses think COVID-19 could impact them for 12–16 months. By some estimates, half of small businesses could fold within six, and laid off workers could require years to find new roles.
One worrying trend: More businesses are moving to permanent layoffs as they close factories and reduce operations.
Manufacturing, which never returned to pre-2008 levels, is especially vulnerable: Between 2010 and 2019, the sector added 1.4 million jobs. In April, it lost 1.3 million (including temporary layoffs).
The Becker Friedman Institute predicts that 42% of layoffs will be permanent.
Business closures also have upstream effects. Commercial real estate owners are expected to swallow big losses, then pass those up to banks when they can’t make debt payments...which could push banks into failure.
Of course, you wouldn't know any of this by looking at the stock market.
▪ 1 Free Stock Webull (Valued up to $1400 after $100 Deposit)
👉http://bit.ly/FreeWebull
#StimulusUpdate
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Free Slice of Stock: https://share.public.com/brianjung
Morning Brew: https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=aaa291d7
Advertiser Disclosure: Some of the card links and other products that appear on this website are from companies which Brian Jung will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Brian Jung does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for entertainment purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.
Morning Brew Economic Piece May 12th:
When an athlete gets hurt, all they think about is the timeline for getting back on the field. The same goes for an injured economy: How long will it take to recover?
Probably years
Economists were hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery: a rapid slide down followed by a quick climb back. But many are scaling expectations back to a Nike swoosh-shaped recovery in which output may not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021 (or later).
Even worse would be a W-shaped recovery, where the economy weathers one recession only to faceplant into a second.
“If a second downturn were to flare up, it’s far from clear that Congress would be ready to offer trillions more to enable businesses to survive yet another round of months-long shutdowns,” the AP reports.
Recoveries don’t happen evenly
A recession’s full effects can take years to ripple out. The Great Recession technically ended in June 2009, yet bank failures peaked in 2010. And as late as 2013, state and local governments were still slashing jobs.
81% of small businesses think COVID-19 could impact them for 12–16 months. By some estimates, half of small businesses could fold within six, and laid off workers could require years to find new roles.
One worrying trend: More businesses are moving to permanent layoffs as they close factories and reduce operations.
Manufacturing, which never returned to pre-2008 levels, is especially vulnerable: Between 2010 and 2019, the sector added 1.4 million jobs. In April, it lost 1.3 million (including temporary layoffs).
The Becker Friedman Institute predicts that 42% of layoffs will be permanent.
Business closures also have upstream effects. Commercial real estate owners are expected to swallow big losses, then pass those up to banks when they can’t make debt payments...which could push banks into failure.
Of course, you wouldn't know any of this by looking at the stock market.
What is going on, you guys welcome back to a another video, the channel where we talk about stimulus, check, updates. That's not too boring, not too crazy, just right right in the middle okay, good, easy, digestible, fun information to get you guys informed for today. I apologize that yesterday i did not put out a video. I got a couple messages saying brian where's updates.
What are you doing? I figured yesterday there weren't too many like real important updates to come out with. So i didn't i didn't post anything yesterday, but i'm realizing a lot of people just want to like conversate or just just talk or listen, so we'll still put out videos regardless, if there's any updates or not except sundays, because some days i rest uh. But i just want to say thank you guys, all so much for tuning by another video definitely has been a pretty crazy. I would say: quarantine, adventure and one of the things that i'm looking forward to doing is to watch these videos like 10 years down the road and just think like if we're all still live by then just think how crazy some of these times actually were.
I hope you guys have all been having a really good and awesome week. So far today is tuesday. Let's get started with this video, so i, when i wake up and - and this is not a sponsored video by morningbrew - they actually did try to sponsor a video. A long time ago, but i was like uh and i took too long ago, and they just never yeah they just never did it so there's pretty much a morning newsletter that gives you like the most important news it it shares with you, like a lot of Things like the stock market, how it's doing some of the most important things like the economy.
We got our homeboy elon musk up in here and in five minutes, easy read. You can just get caught up to date, every single day on, what's going on, so if you guys want to check out morningbrew check it out down below because they got this program where, if i refer like five people, i can get a sticker and those are Some pretty cool stickers and also if i refer a thousand people, i get a trip to hq. I don't think it's happening right now, because you know we're not really supposed to be flying, but who knows maybe this? Maybe one of my videos will go viral and i'll be able to have a chance to go to hq for morning brew. Imagine if it's just like the tiniest like imagine if this is all in someone's basement, i would still be down as long as i'm not gon na get sick.
One of the first sentences we got is when an athlete gets hurt. All they think about is the timeline for getting back on the field. The same goes for an injured economy. How long will it take to recover - and i feel like this right here - is the question that is on everybody's mind, regardless, if you're a teacher, if you're, if you're self-employed, if you work a corporate job, the question is: how long will it take for things to Actually recover because the state of our economy is really going to dictate a lot of things that go on in our day-to-day basis. As i do more research, i'm seeing things like groceries are increasing in price milk, eggs. Things are slowly going up right now and it's definitely a crazy time, especially if you're someone who wants to make money prosper and do well in this world, so we're gon na go down. It says. Probably years economists were hoping for a v-shaped economic recovery, a rapid slide down, followed by a quick climb back, but many are scaling expectations back to a nike swoosh-shaped recovery in which output may not return to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021 or later.
And that is crazy because i was hoping things were going to go back to normal by 2020. So there are so many different opinions out here and even with an opinion like this, no one actually knows what's going on unless you are from the future - and you have come back in time to spread the good news, you will not be able to tell the People exactly what is going on, but based on evidence right now. It seems that they keep on pushing back the recovery road. President trump recently had an interview where he said that for the quarter three originally like back back months ago, we're saying quarter three quarter.
Four, like things are gon na, go back to normal. It's gon na be good. Now it's actually getting pushed back to a point where quarter three is looking to be our transition, our recovery and still you know not out of it yet and then quarter four. We are trying to be optimistic.
That quarter four is going to be where we start to return back to the levels that we were before all this craziness started happening. This article continues, if i say recoveries don't happen evenly, a recession's full effect can take years to ripple out the great recession. Technically ended in june 2009, yet bank failures peaked in 2010 and as late as 2013 state and local governments were still slashing jobs, 81 percent of small businesses think coven 19 could impact them for 12 to 16 months. By some estimates, half of small businesses could fold within six and laid off.
Workers could require years to find new rules. That is truly terrifying right there, because a lot of people were optimistic at the fact that the layoffs that were occurring right now are temporary they're. Not the same layoffs that we've seen in the great depression or different times in history, when we've seen our economy take a plunge. The worst thing i feel like that could happen is if all the temporary things that are going on right now is actually an illusion for permanence and that that right there, that's a scary part we're seeing unemployment rise higher than ever we're seeing a new generation of People growing up in an area where this may be the new normal for them and we're seeing more articles more people saying that we may never even return back to a new normal.
This article continues to say one worrying trend. More businesses are moving to permanent layoffs as they close factories and reduce operations manufacturing which never returned to pre-2008 levels is especially vulnerable between 2010 and 2019., the sector added 1.4 million jobs in april, and it's lost 1.3 million in temporary layoffs. The becker friedman institute predicts that 42 of layoffs will be permanent, so yeah, you know youtube is a great opportunity. I feel like for a lot of people if they want to start a hobby or if they just want to make this thing like a full career path. But it's times like this, when it's pretty difficult to make videos, because i'm trying to find a lot more optimistic information. I love when we hear news about stimulus checks or people getting stimulus checks and the comments are yes, i'm getting it. Yes, i'm getting it. Thank you so much, and it's all good news like this has saved me and my family for this month, but when we're going through, i would say this dry season of not the best news.
It's tough as a creator in my situation, because i want to be someone who's, more optimistic and and bringing that type of stuff the more research i do, the more it weighs me down mentally thinking about the reality of the situation of how long this may. Actually. Last now i did find some good news, though i i guess it depends on the way you look at it. A lot of other states are actually looking to reopen this week and it's causing a huge debate within the political house, and the debate comes down to this.
A good example is for anyone who hasn't kept up with the news. South korea has actually done a pretty good job in containing the spread of the pandemic and the virus. Most recently, they've been having record days of like zero infections and they've been they've, been doing splendid and all of a sudden one person who happened to be infected went out to the clubs one night and reinfected everyone else in korea. So a situation like that happening in korea should really be an example of what may actually happen.
If we see too many of these states reopening too quickly. This thing may not go away for a very long time, but the other issue, on the other hand, is none of this will matter at the end of the day, because our economy could possibly shut down. So it's really in this middle line, i feel like we could get the best of both worlds. I feel like if we continue to practice really good social discussing uh, very high levels of like like yo.
If anyone even like sniffles, like you, kicking them out of their restaurant, you maintain levels of high security and really just stay cautious about these things and slowly allow some of these essential businesses to open up. That seems to be what's happening. I don't want to say it's too early for businesses to do that, just because people are out here starving, they cannot work, people need to get back to work, but if we open up too quickly, we can risk some more infections, and this is why the stimulus Checks are just so important. There are many other options like increasing the value of food stamps and giving those out and we're also talking about increasing the rate of unemployment. But every single option that seems to be proposed always has some type of caveat when we're talking about food stamps. If we're talking about something like food stamps, this still requires a lot of people to go out to redeem it, and a lot of people may not actually qualify for food stamps. Think about this. Normally, you have to be making a certain like minimum or maximum level of money every single year in order for the government to be able to provide you with that, but we're seeing instances where people who are making 60 70 even a hundred thousand dollars per year.
Who did not do a good job at staying disciplined with saving up their savings are now seeing a huge hit. It's easy for people to overspend it's easy for people to get that car that they don't need or to buy. That house is too big for them and times like this is why it's so important to have that type of savings account. Now all this there's no point in saying this because we're in the future, we can't say, okay and and bring that to shame moving toward the future every single bill.
Every single proposal seems to have some type of caveat, except, i believe, stimulus checks. I feel like stimulus checks is really one of the best ways: easy, quick cash money to the american people. I'm seeing another proposal too logging in today about a 5 000 loan. If you sacrifice your social security and like future retirement benefits, i think that's whack.
I think out of everything i've heard this is whack. This is not even stimulus money. This is a loan for people to have and then they're sacrificing their future livelihood. I can see where, like the mindset comes from because they, the government obviously wants to save money.
They want to get their money back and if someone can survive now, i guess it won't matter 10, 20, 30 years down in the future when they actually have to retire, but it'll be crazy. If something like this goes through and i feel like it would be a very good resource for people to potentially have, but at this moment the people do not need a 5 000 loan by sacrificing future social security. What people need right now is additional money. I'm still waiting on news to hear back from congress and our politicians on whether or not there's going to be an update regarding our future stimulus checks.
I'm hoping the two thousand dollar stimulus check does go through. I feel like that is gon na, be a huge help to the american people and right now, with the way politicians are, are talking and the way they're they're headed. I still am very hopeful that we are gon na get a second stimulus check so for the people saying like okay, we're not gon na get it please be just a little bit more optimistic and and just stay tuned for any more updates. It's estimated that about 20 million people in the united states right now are not receiving their first meals checks too. So the first stimulus check round is not even over. A lot of us are talking about these second stimulus checks, because a large majority of people have received the first ones, but keep in mind 20 million. That's not just a couple. People 20 million is definitely a good amount that still have not received anything.
So i have not forgotten about you guys if there are any updates regarding that or we hear that everyone is getting it. Everyone has gotten it i'll, definitely say that on this channel, let you guys know but moving forward into the future. At least for this week. I'm just crossing my fingers to hear about more proposals that are progressing.
One thing i can say for sure within our country is that, although we are, you know the united states like we're supposed to be united, there seems to have always been this divide, whether it's among the people, whether it's among you, know past things in history or Whether it's things during the current moment now with our politicians with republicans and democrats and for the first time - and you know this - is where i hope that that this whole pandemic is actually going to be like a blessing in disguise - is that it really does bring Community together does bring a lot people closer together. I don't know if this is gon na happen, yet i don't know if we need to see a total chaos and destruction before we get to that point, but that's really what i am hoping for. Even when i go out on my morning runs you know, people are like avoiding each other left and like skirt like out of the way like people don't want to be anywhere close to each other. There are people who don't care at all.
There are people that i feel like are trying to walk into me. It seems to me what's happening, especially with the news and the people and how people are all afraid of each other. Now the divide is getting even more like that. That's what i'm predicting and i really hope i really hope that that changes.
I i really hope that communities come together. Governments can work together, so they can help out the people in need - and this is pretty much a large majority of the american population right now. So guys that was my video just talking about recent updates regarding the whole situation, i hope that you guys are all staying safe out here. I know it can get quite boring not doing much at home.
I know some people are going crazy. I'm seeing articles too on like how to survive a quarantine session, because it is, it is crazy to just stay at home for the next three four months. Humans were made to be social creatures that we're too complex of people to just be isolated and alone. For long periods of time, this is why i believe prison and and punishment is the way it is it's social isolation for the most part, yeah man guys keep up with people, stay active in these communities and and try to get some fresh air. Okay i'll. Let you guys know if there's any more news. Thank you guys, all so much for the support and the weevil promotion on getting two free stocks has gone away, but you can still get one free stock that could be valued up to 1400. So if you guys want to check that out, don't forget to sign up for weeble down below, i will have other additional affiliate links that will give you guys free money, free signup bonuses, free things like that, if you guys are interested at all, but like always, Don't forget to drop a like on this video drop a like down there, and i shall see you guys in the next one: peace out thy people.
Great video, Brian! Definitely going to try to keep an optimistic outlook on all of this. Also, one-off question, but what kind of mic are you using?
I appreciate your commentary on the bill and what’s going on. I’ve seen several channels who clearly have no idea about the politics behind it and mislead viewers into thinking a bill like this is anywhere close to passing. Also, great outro music.
Let the government tell us please. YouTube is a welfare and hoopla app
I think you should rename your YouTube show, "Common Sense" with Brian. Your parents are proud man. Maybe you should think about more topics that the normal American people are interested in?
I didn’t recieve the 1st stimulus for my child. The one who prepared our income tax 2019 (last year) made a mistake of not icluding my child so they did the amendment. How are we going to claim that $500 for my child?
The government wants to make sure they'll get their money back? That's the tax payers money… and it should be used to support them.
Hi Brian, how can college students benefit from this? As a graduate who filed dependently as I as attending university, a stimulus check and unemployment cannot be assisted with. With potential opportunities being rescinded in March, it's only getting harder and harder for class of 2020 students to attain a Full Time job. Is the only hope to continue to apply for jobs? Thanks a bunch
In the last stimulus action Republicans gave tons of millionaires $1.6 million each and crumbs to the serfs? Now Mitch and republicans say it costs too much to give any more to the serfs. Prices are up…?let the serfs eat cake or cat food. Biden and democrats are rejoicing….thanks, Mitch.
if people needed the first one for bills and food thatount is not much help again,if they want lto help do right by the people after all whom gives them there jobs by electing them in can also not keep them in im on a fixed income on ssd and my income does not change ,but not everyone is that lucky do your people right.
I wish they would would just make up their minds and say yes your getting a STIMULUS CHECK FOR THE NEXT FEWS MONTH …..OR SAY NO WE CAN'T BECAUSE THEY GOT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ON THE EDGE !!!!
Very happy with money in the pocket on the other hand where the money comes from is a hiccup
Lol, I know it's a joke, but I have an issue with your "kick them out if they cough…"
I walked into a store the other day, they were spraying down carts as I walked in, awesome! Until I got a face full of cleaner on an inhale….yes, I coughed (into my shoulder),… lol!
This new packages sucks and is not enough to keep USA 🇺🇸 out of a depression.
Praise the Lord, I finally got my $1,200 stimulus money on direct deposit today.Praise the Lord, Ain't the beer cold!!!
After all this time waiting my check finally came in. Apparently SSI, SSD, SSDA and a couple others are the last to get them. It's pretty much spent, to catch up on bills and much needed supplies for the house.
Hell the workers that got laid off are making more money than anyone!
My state did a slow opening. But ever since the numbers are climbing everyday. While I have been out in my county and the next county I see businesses with signs saying closed or out of business. The county I live in is already considered poverty and now the jobs they did have are all closed. I am an essential working and they are sitting at home making more than me. I do not get paid hazard pay neither does my husband and he is a state employee.
What do you think about the q2 earnings do you think stocks will go up or down ?
Kick people out of restaurants for sniffling? Jeebus H. You people are so scared and paranoid. Grow some balls.
I know this doesn’t have to do with the video topic. But we are gonna start up our YouTube channel. To try and fund my adopted sons MX expedition !! But anyway. I notice a echo in your videos. I’m how can you stop this ? We been recording some practice stuff and have a larger echo than you …
So wht happen two 2,000 monthly, I guess big business is good now ha, so forget about the people asual
I really need to know when I'm gonna receive my stimulus check. Seriously.
So first off I don't know or have heard of anyone STARVING we have to deal with reality 2/3 of Americans are either overweight or obsessed so A LOT of crying for more stimulus is just those people wanting to get their food addiction fix. The ONLY ones who can starve are people that are normal weight we did have the greatest economy in world history so even most normal people had saving of some keep kind.
So anyone starving DIDN'T have any money BEFORE Covid-19 so this is not an argument. What you mean is some are uncomfortable but NO ONE is truly starving this is such a Marxist child's argument. No Brian anyone without funds can go get food stamps I've been on them, the problem now is they would have to apply online so Trump can order them to be reopening big deal. That's the food problem solved. The person that went to the club DIDN'T reinfect this whole of Korea silly NOTHING like that would be possible with MOST of them social distancing sounds like Chinese propaganda to me. Korea will be fine we and Japan can lend them money if they need it and your homeland WILL BE drowning in money after we kill Kim Joug-Un and reunite the north and the south. We will fine also the articles you're reading are written by those that have NEVER made BILLIONS of dollars the way President Trump has he said he'd give us a great economy and he did. Now he says he can do it again and HE WILL!!!
I believe in him and his ability to make money. He will absolutely get reelected so we don't have to worry. The ONLY thing we need to be doing now is managing the money we have/will get wisely and stay healthy that's all.
my check came and I dumped it into my saving account… couldn't believe old Trumps name was on it. he's showing his true colors… I wish he would lead or be a decent image of a person. But I'm fine with the freedom of the press…pressing his ignorance out every time they can. trump is trash simple and to the core. I'm okay with a second stimulus check going to keep dumping them into savings.
-peace
People who are responsible & wont file bankruptcy, but pay credit card INTEREST.
FINANCIAL stocks that are @ bargain $$ (ex. SYF) will eventually receive great 👍 return.
Goal – to BUY low & HOLD. I did that in 2008 & return was 130% w/i 3 years.
the only reason why these layoffs are not temporary is because the Democrats are using this opportunity to put in all kinds of b***** when it comes to the stimulus packages and are using it for political gain by trying to show incompetence of the president and ruin the best economy in the history of the world. If you're a Democrat your dirtball I need to leave America before we force you out.
i would rather be quarantined camping without a stimulus payment.
Hi there I've been trying to set up a consultation with you sent you 3 attempts….are you still doing them
Our economy won't shut down too strong, poor and low wage workers will suffer more. However, small business owners and low wage workers will see relief- it will be fair and equitable not generous…
I’m still waiting for unemployment that I started 3/22 and doing weekly claims NY Unemployment
I will surely stimulate the economy with my $158.00 portion of the up to $1200 bc I had a higher paying job last year that I lost way before this happened. Now, I make way less and am considered self employed. I have no income and am still waiting to apply for PUA. Another $158 does not help me at all. And I am told I will not be working again until the end of the month.
We my family was hit hard with covid19 sickness no income etc…we have been so blessed our community stepped up and brought food help pay our bills. Today McDonald's brought my family lunch and a huge basket of goodies for my grandkids. Even the news came and did a story on our family. We just need to stay positive help is coming! We haven't got our first check but i know we will