Welcome back to another meet! Kevin report So Apple reports earnings soon Apple reports earnings on the 4th of May and what should be pretty exciting is in June Uh, they're having their WWDC and we're finally expecting the unveil of Apple's new virtual reality slash augmented reality headset. It's expected to cost quite a chunk of change, somewhere around three thousand dollars. but uh, something that I actually really support Apple on. If these rumors are true, is the idea that virtual reality probably won't be the near-term future.

Rather, augmented reality will When I was skiing just this last week, I was thinking to myself, my goodness, there's so much literal screen real estate when you're wearing massive goggles. Not saying you want to wear those all the time, obviously, but I was just thinking about it when you're skiing. there's so much screen real estate in here you could easily have like, you know, hey, is uh, the ski school trying to call me or text me like a notification, hey, pick up your child because he's screaming his head off and he doesn't want to be here or whatever ever right like or or weather notifications or Warnings or a map of of how to get around about like all these things would be really cool from an augmented reality point of view and something like that I could actually see myself wanting to use. Now the problem that I have is I believe that what Apple's going to do is they're going to have cameras forward so that they can project on that all like what your reality actually is in front of you.

In my opinion, the issue with that is you're still going to have that feeling of looking through a screen, right? I Think the longer term future needs to be some kind of almost transparent glass that could essentially be overlaid over sort of like the old Google Glass style because I I'm not entirely convinced that having basically I mean you could do it yourself right now, right? Just put your phone on the video camera mode and go like this. and I mean maybe maybe, but like my eyes already feel like they're gonna be messed up from doing that right? Uh, so who knows? that'll be really interesting. Uh, but I do agree with Apple if the rumor is true that augmented reality is going to be something that's more of a future for. Apple I Think virtual reality.

We're just not there yet. Uh, I've done many and used many of the new virtual reality headsets. Uh, my children have them and it seems to be more of one of those novelty things where you use it for a few weeks you kind of put it on. You do like the roller coaster rides and you see, oh, this virtual reality is so good you might experience motion sickness and you're like okay, I maybe I'm feeling it.

Maybe they're right, baby, it is so good. I I Don't know, but it just doesn't seem yet. Super functional and maybe that's because the platform just isn't there yet. right? In terms of the type of games you have a relatively limited uh yeah, you got some Fitness games you can do you know, sort of uh, the music games or whatever like the old Guitar Hero and dance DDR style stuff.

Uh, but I really feel like you know virtual reality is going to be epic in the future when I could play Like My World of Warcraft carrier a character in virtual reality but it actually feels like I'm there. but in order for that to be possible I probably have to have some kind of like platform that I could stand on that could move. so I could kind of like run in One Direction right and never hit the wall. uh and I think that'll come.

but so don't get me wrong, big fan of virtual reality I just think that's 10 years out. I'm excited though about Apple's announcement of augmented reality. Apparently they're supposed to announce new MacBooks as well iOS 17 Mac OS 14 a major watch update which I just thought they came out with a major watch update I'm actually I've got the major watch update on right now which I'll talk a little bit about this. uh the but the but the headset is probably going to steal the show.

One of the things that is interesting about the headset is Apple is talking about having essentially a way that um uh that you can um basically scroll Kind of like. if you've ever used a watch before here, let me show you because maybe you haven't before. So let me see if I can get focus on the stupid watch. Uh, there you go.

See that little wheel that's gonna happen. Um, if I block some more here. uh yeah. see this little wheel right here.

So Apple is suggesting that if you if you turn this little wheel here, you uh, might it with an augmented reality headset be able to go from augmented reality to Virtual Reality as you kind of turn this sort of wheel around and so that's what they're expecting might be like at top of your your head on this headset. So kind of think about it. like and then you dial the Little Wheel and then you go from augmented reality to virtual reality. That seems pretty cool again.

I'm not convinced that projecting with cameras what's actually really in front of me. uh, onto a virtual reality headset is going to be so convincingly great. Specifically because uh, what's it called? the uh, the The Meta one does that when you first, uh, you know, when you first go around and you do the uh, you set your perimeter for the virtual reality headset. It shows you the augmented reality right? It shows you you in your room, uh or all the things in your actual room and just overlays.

It's not bad, but it still makes me feel like I'm looking into a little screen because well, ultimately you are so uh, I think that'll be interesting to see what Apple comes out with and if that's the kind of product that creates any kind of headaches or pain over using. but AR Augmented Reality I Think is the future for 2023 to 2030 and then virtual reality may be thereafter. I Get what Meta? What Meta is doing? Facebook they're they're trying to invest for the advertising world of 2030. Plus I Just think they're burning too much cash flow today to be smart about that.

Now Apple is expected to lose money on their virtual and Augmented Reality headset as well, so we'll see what happens now when it comes to the watch. I'll give a little bit of commentary on this. Uh, so up until probably about a week ago, I've been a big believer that this new rugged watch is really, just, uh, the same as uh, all the other watches. Mostly it's just a little bit bigger.

uh I haven't really noticed any functional difference in the fact that it's a little bit bigger. But one thing I will say that I've really enjoyed because I generally wake up pretty early and if I have to go into uh or you have to walk past my kids or I have to walk past Laura and my wife then I I don't want to be rude and wake them and usually what I used to do in the past is I would just use the iPhone flashlight app and I would kind of like cover it a little bit and I try to use that to kind of navigate around where I was going to get what I needed to do in the dark so not wake up other people. That was okay, but there's still probably too bright if anybody remembers back in the 2007 2008. Actually, it's probably more like 2007.

in 2007, the first iPhone ever there was no flashlight app and so you actually had to do back in 2007 is you would just open the video camera feature, push the flashlight button on and then you add your flashlight but they didn't have a separate button for that which I thought was wild. But anyway, what's cool now about the Rugged watch is they give you this this third button this little orange button over here and what I did is I programmed that orange button to flashlight so when I press the orange button it turns the watch flashlight on which is really good and then I can go to strobe which I never do but I could also go to red light flashlight over here which is pretty neat uh and uh and sometimes that functions if it's if I'm in super low light I could go with the red light flashlight nobody sees it while they're sleeping and the other ones a substantial step down from from the y or from the iPhone uh but I love it from that point of view because of the productivity element of of the watch. just me being able to go into a dark room click that one button. Boom! My flashlight works pretty fast, especially since I don't always have my uh my uh I uh phone on me.

Now another thing that I like to do is the um, the actual sort of main screen. My big productivity hacks on the watch I'll show you I'll actually throw it up I'll throw up a screenshot that I just took the way I like to organize it generally during the week and you can change your your home screen obviously regularly on the weekends sometimes. I just like to have pictures of the kids, but this is usually my productivity screen on my watch. and what I like about this is I'll put at the bottom right whatever ticker I might be trading that day.

So uh on Thursday I was trading triple uh, triple leveraged QQQ So I kept QQQ on because my goal was for QQQ to get to 319 and then I was going to take my attendees and it started out at like 3 15 that day. So I'm like I got a long way to go. We ended up getting the 319 and I took some nice Tandy so I was really happy about that. But anyway so I keep that little tracker that quarter my kids regularly.

Uh, the most effective way to sort of like mini discipline them if you will is by setting 1 min minute timers. so if they're like super annoying and Naggy I I set a one minute timer and and then they get pissed and then they learn to stop bothering me. The cool thing about that at the bottom right or bottom mid there is I can push with one click and that one minute timer comes up. that I think is is, um, a little overpowered.

Uh so I like that. I'll let me see if I can put it a little closer to the camera here so you can see it a little bit more functionally. So if I pull out of this all right, let's let's see how am I going to do this without it locking on me? All right I think I got it. So we have our little watch cover here and the cool thing is if I just go ahead and push that but look at that timer's right there.

like how nice is that and then obviously you can hit the little back arrow there and go to like two minute timer, three minute time or whatever. but I made the button the one minute timer just to make it like super fast now I don't have to again go find my phone, try to unbury the darn thing which which I usually generally leave docked but I'm not always where the dock is. you know sometimes I'm playing in the backyard with the kids and the phones are docked inside and it's like I really want to be able to set it one more time so that's been really useful. The little uh music button is great because I could uh if I go on a run I could Bluetooth that really quickly to my uh, whatever headphones I run with usually I use the Apple Pro Max's just because the band is really soft rubber and I really enjoy that.

uh now someone from Israel is calling great uh then uh, we've got um, the little calendar thing. Super useful to have that calendar right in my face. otherwise I'm gonna miss it if if I don't have my calendar event like right there I'm gonna miss it so that's pretty useful obviously date time. And then recently I put the calculator at the top, which has been pretty functional for me.

Uh, mostly because there's so many times I just need to do some quick math and oftentimes I'm on a run and I'm like oh I wonder you know if this happens, that happens or this with a stock or something? I'm trading or whatever and I just need some quick math and it's beyond the level of mental math or I want some more accuracy? My goodness, the Little Apple watch calculator has actually been surprisingly functional. So I've I've come to like the watch a little bit more and more over time, but I think you could do this with the non-ruggeds as well I Don't know if you get as much screen real estate to have all of these buttons here, but that one's been pretty functional for me. that's the modular setting on, uh, on the watch, so uh, they're useful. You know I know a lot of people are pretty anti-apple they don't like Apple products or the Apple ecosystem.

Uh, and and I get it. You know there's some things that are quite different I think eventually everybody will be a blue texter. Uh, but uh, don't get me wrong, there are definitely some things you need a PC for like gaming gaming. Unfortunately, Apple just has never caught up with for uh for PC games or or you know, whatever it is compatibility I Don't know.

but maybe one day, maybe one day we'll be able to actually game on a Mac But let me put it this way: I got one of those. uh, the the Mac Pros uh Those computer. They're like ten thousand bucks I Bought it as a workstation like four years ago and I'm like that's just gonna be great. It's gonna be so wonderful.

First of all, it wasn't. It was a waste of money. Uh, I was really disappointed about that. but I tried to run rust on it.

the video game rust and I compared to Lauren's twelve hundred dollar gaming computer because she gave us so little, she's like just give me the cheap one on Amazon hers had like three times the graphic settings that mine had. It's just it's not possible yet to game on. uh uh, the game on the max. Now maybe that's a good point.

Someone here says uh uh uh. new cloud gaming? maybe? uh, cloud gaming. You have to be careful. So I've done a bit of cloud gaming I actually bring uh oftentimes I try when we go on trips I'll bring like a little um iPhone or Android remote control where I could stick my phone in it because I do have an Android as well and uh, then we can cloud game and uh, it's great when you have good internet.

obviously right? cloud gaming. But that's been a little bit challenging for us because usually when I use the remote control where you plug your phone in I'm traveling and when you're traveling, the internet usually sucks. So obviously, uh, you know, sometimes that's that's all. Annoying Uh, if you were to invest in augmented reality, would you look at Snapchat you know I don't know that much about Snapchat Snapchat is um, very much dedicated to uh, I shouldn't say dedicated to, but it it's very much used by a substantially younger demographic.

Uh, and there's nothing wrong with that, right? Like I'm not I'm not age discriminating here I Just say yeah, it ain't me I don't understand? uh and and that that seems weird because I You know I feel like as a millennial I'm still supposed to be like that younger generation that everybody makes fun of. but I'm not that younger generation anymore. It's weird. You know it's like now it's it's Gen Z and I'm like, okay I mean like a lot of people I employ are gen Z and I'm like they're cool, like they're normal people, like they're awesome.

like I get along with them just like I get along with Millennials It's not like all of a sudden they're a different breed of human. Uh, you know. so I think everybody's the same I I don't know I just I I haven't Incorporated snap into my life? but then again, you know I could just be different in that sense because I did I did just recently delete tick tock Twitter um and probably gonna delete Instagram next to my phone mostly because what I'll do is I'll go like I'll go on Twitter and I'm not gonna not use the apps but I'll do it when I'm in the office and I can be on a computer which sounds insane I know. But what I found myself doing IRL in real life when I found myself doing is literally if I had Tick Tock or Twitter on my phone every second I was like in a conversation or whatever or at a red light at a stoplight or whatever.

It was like oh what's the latest refresh Tick Tock or Twitter Twitter refresh refresh refresh. it was just like oh God no no way too addicting. uh and and it was it just not useful like I Found these these apps were really useful for me when and still are when I go on them and I get like a scheduled summary right? I Have to say that is something that Apple has done extremely well. The scheduled summaries are probably my most favorite Tool uh out of uh, the Apple ecosystem right now because they helped me so much with uh with which basically just organizing what what I'm doing.

but uh, notifications are pain I've talked about that a lot before on this channel how notifications are just horrible because you could be in the middle of doing something and you're constantly just like oh God I gotta answer the phone oh God I gotta respond to that text like the worst and most annoying thing is when when you go into like a conference or something and everybody's got like their their their uh um chime on for their text messages it's just like so anxiety inducing it's like turn that crap off like do you really need to drop everything you're doing when you're interacting with other people to to uh uh to like instantly respond. Now don't get me wrong, there are some things the answer to that is absolutely right of course. uh, but uh, but I don't think that's necessary for for everything. So um I think you could sort of create like you can, you could create VIP It's like if your wife calls you or there's your school, your kid's school is calling you great instead of VIP like put them in the little VIP category.

Uh, but uh, but otherwise you have to respond to everything instantly God No, it's terrible for productivity. but here's an example of a notification summary. hopefully I don't docs myself. But anyway, so like.

this is the next summary that that I I think I've set for like 8 30 a.m and so uh, this one's not actually too long just because I think I got the last notification at like 6 a.m But anyway, what it basically does is it gives me this little collapsible segment that rather than getting all my notifications at once, it just basically collapses all these notifications into little summaries. So here let me show it to you. like this: so at the bottom you could see sleep cycle and recommended colon. Funny, those are just regular notifications, right? But over here, these summaries I could click on just one notification and then it expands all of these notification summaries.

For me, this really functional, really cool. uh, and then it'll even, you know, generally collapse within. Uh, cert like if there are five Bloomberg articles, it'll collapse Nest them all onto Bloomberg and you can separately expand those. That's been this amazing productivity hack? Uh, because then again, you're not missing all those notifications.

Instead, they're bundled of time where it's convenient for you to sit down and go through them. You know part personally. I think the easiest time to do email is not every minute an email comes in. but when you sit down and you're like, all right I got all my emails ready, you bang out all your emails, you bang out all your twittering, you bang out all your notifications, and then you go do normal stuff but constantly like reacting to notification quite frankly is just idiotic and terrible for productivity.

sorry I'm not trying to call people uh, you know, idiots here. oh so uh, that is my take on uh on on Apple uh big fan uh very very uh very excited by the way about uh the next Apple event. uh but then again, I'm I'm always excited about um about Apple products and then usually you kind of just like they come out with the product and it's like yeah, all right like everybody gets super excited around the time of the releases and then you kind of just incorporate into your life and it's like not that different like I will say the iPhone 14 it was so jazzed I'm like this is gonna be the iPhone that that like actually makes me excited about upgrading. Oh my gosh, the always-on display.

Oh my gosh it, it's not really that different from my 13. I have the 13. it's actually sitting in a dock right next to it. The one thing I do like is that always on display I will say that that is nice because I don't have to tap the darn other thing to sort of wake it up.

but uh, but beyond that it's basically the same. In fact, I did a video comparison of comparing the iPhone 13 to 14 camera on a gimbal. you don't even need to use a gimbal by the way anymore these days that that I will say is insane like the gimbal Market when it comes to iPhones I don't know how they're not out of business yet. I'll show you an example.

but anyway. uh, the quality is it like I Did not notice that much of a difference at all. If anything, it was challenging for me to notice a difference between the 13 and uh uh and the 14. but uh, the the handheld uh technology now in in some of these uh phones is just amazing.

I'll show you oh yeah, this is. this is a really good example. Okay let me show you this little video clip here and I think you'll you'll enjoy it because so this was a video clip of uh uh me probably Jack on it like his third day ever of skiing. so it's not like super Advanced uh we're on like a green slope or whatever.

but we go down the sort of offside where uh, where you have all the little bumps and the trees or whatever and uh, I'll show you that here. So what I want you to see is is just basically how smooth this camera feels. Uh so here's Jack and his instructor and this is freehand Like there's no gimbal here. This is crazy.

uh, this is me. you know, skiing up to him or or skiing behind him or whatever and it's it's crazy how stable the footage is these days. I also did some shots in cinematic mode although I noticed when I was in cinematic mode you had a little bit more of um, uh, that AI wasn't that great yet for the technology for keeping your uh, keeping your focus set. But let me get some more shots here as I Stumble up this little tree to get a shot of Jack There we go.

Uh, so there we go. uh I mean I I think this is amazing. Do you think this is in your pocket and it's so smooth? I think I actually follow him here through the bumps and you'll be able to see a little bit more but I don't quite remember. Yeah, let me see here, you'll be able to get to see a little bit more.

I think of motion following which is pretty neat, but uh yeah. I used to have to do this stuff with a gimbal which was always a pain in the butt because then the gimbal would unbalance and then wonky around or something like that. But for an iPhone I I don't know. this is this is awesome.

So big fan. Yeah, look at that. Ah, good job. Jack I Don't know? like really cool.

That's all I said I mean I Know that camera technology has just gotten good, even in Androids right? So it's it's not just, uh, hey, look, there's me. It's not just, um, the the iPhone that does this sort of stuff I don't really know what I'm doing here I think I'm getting ready to turn it off. Yeah, anyway. uh.

okay. so so uh. camera attack? Fantastic. Uh, but I don't think anybody really disputes that anymore these days.

I Do worry a little bit about DJI their iPhone gimbal Market but other than that, uh yeah, really cool. So um, all right. Let's uh, let's go ahead and um, yeah, end that segment. So hopefully you enjoyed that segment on Apple because I'm excited about the augmented reality.

Not convinced yet on virtual reality, but augmented I'm interested I could be really convinced I'm tempted I'm almost tempted to buy one which is scary because I don't know First gen from from Apple I I don't I don't know I don't know we'll see and then again, what are you gonna do with it I don't know. Can I go on a run with it? They say it has a huge detached battery pack I don't want to go on a run with that so we'll see which app was the notification summary. That seems interesting. It's actually under the notification setting on your phone, so it's it's built in.

It's not a separate app. But yes, the notification summary is a lifesaver. Really, really good. All right.

Next segment. So that was the Apple segment. a um oh, stuttering a YouTube thing. yeah, who knows how it ended up feeding through in YouTube Given that that was recorded live, you know I don't know.

Okay, let's go with the next segment we've got to touch on is oh, this is a good one. Oh yeah, this one will be fun. All right. Well folks, are we experiencing A Tale of Two Cities Are we going into a recession and is inflation going to stay stickier than anyone expects? or is the recession already over? That's an interesting thought after all.

Consider that in the first quarter of 2022, Real GDP was negative 1.6 In the second quarter of 2022, Real GDP was negative Point: Six percent That sets up the technical definition for a quote: Technical Recession: Two quarters of negative GDP in a row now Democrats In the White House will say nah, that wasn't actually a recession whereas other people say, oh, how convenient for you to change the definition of recession. Facts are what they are. We had negative real GDP for two quarters in a row. whatever you want to call that fine.

But there was now an argument being made that the bottom is in knock on wood I'm not saying it Bloomberg Intelligence is saying the bottom might be it Bloomberg Intelligence has something known as the Economic Regime Index. And the Economic Regime Index suggests the worst economic pain in this market happened a few months ago, and that things may not actually be as bad as they seem. And maybe the stock market realizes that. And maybe that's why the stock market is actually up 20.

Since October that's the S P 500 year. Today the S P is up over seven percent. The NASDAQ is up over 20. Some exchange traded funds that are more Tech focused.

sometimes pricing power focused are up over 30 percent. In some cases, there's some real opportunities that have happened. Look at Bitcoin Bitcoin and Ethereum are up somewhere 80 since the beginning of the year. It's phenomenal.

Yet despite this, the Bears are present and so I Want to talk about both the Bears and the Bulls in this video? The Bears Like to point to this chart and say, well, wait a second here. Investors have withdrawn cash from U.S equities for 11 out of 15 weeks this year. That seems bearish. In fact, you could see those withdrawal periods here.

You can also see this massive tax loss harvesting event here, which is the Blue Line showing you a massive decline in the last week of December Excuse me. All right. So why is so much path and cash being withdrawn from equities? and why then is the market still slowly trending? Ah well. Some argue that cash is being withdrawn because clearly the earnings recession is afoot.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson will have you know that the earnings recession is coming. Companies are going to miss their forecasts which are already low. They're going to miss on EPs and we're going to go into a real S P 500 to climb. We're going back to 3200.

We're going down 20 30 percent. Why do they say that? Well, in part because you do have the S P 500 heavily exposed to things like consumer staples and Health Care stocks which in my opinion as well as reads which in my opinion, won't do so well in 2023, I think they're likely to experience the real earnings recession So Lately they've been propped up by some mag attack. Now there's also the argument that hey, well, people are taking this money out of the stock market because you could get four to five percent on money market funds and Hell Well, if you've got so much money that you can make in Money Market funds, if you can make four to five percent, why would you risk any of your hard-earned cash in the stock market? Just take a four to five percent risk-free return and call it a day. Yes, maybe.

But remember, a four to five percent return actually is your payment for opportunity, right? It is an opportunity cost somebody who is investing and the four to five percent yields might potentially be missing out on 20 30, 40, 50 returns in the stock market. However, they might also avoid another 20 downside in the event that occurs, right? So this cash withdrawal chart not that fantastic, especially when you couple it with the fear that it's possible inflation will remain a lot stickier than we expect. In fact, here's a piece from the a Wall Street Journal which talks about economists turning more pessimistic on inflation. And really, what they're talking about is how economists have been surveyed.

and all of a sudden economists actually expect inflation to end the year up at 3.53 percent versus three point one percent in January And the number of economists thinking that rates are going to get cut by the end of the year has flip-flopped from a majority to now only 39 percent of economists. So part of that is because a lot of economists believe inflatial will be higher for longer and this is a pretty typical bear argument that people make. This chart, by the way, shows you the dark blue line on top, which is uh, the April forecast for inflation and the light blue line being the January forecast. I tried to throw in what I call the sort of like wedge in Orange here and that's really just to show you where uh, inflation might be higher.

See this little extra difference here. This is what the market has to price in. it's higher for longer inflation, right? And uh, that's negative for the stock market obviously. or is it though and see, this is where even though consumer expectations for inflation via the Consumer sentiment survey at the University of Michigan just popped up to its highest level since 2020., now a lot of folks are saying hey, maybe we are going to have higher inflation for longer.

Maybe that does mean rates are going to be higher for longer. Even though all of that might be true, the Bloomberg Intelligence Economic Regime Index suggests most of the pain, it's already over. And when we align what the S P 500 forward returns could be based on what has happened since the 1970s might be time to turn bullish. Now this follows the Economic Thrust Index, which we talked about just in the last two days where the Economic Thrust Index is basically one of the most reliable signals for just being past the bottom and on an uptrend.

And that Economic Thrust signal is saying we're here. it's time to buy, baby Now who knows. but take a look at this. This is the Economic Regime Index and I'll explain it because at first it looks a little funky.

So what you want to do is you want to zoom in over here to the right. And what this does is it measures the change in momentum of things like manufacturing, industrial capacity, consumerism sentiment. It puts all these data sets together And what you could see historically here this chart goes all the way back to 1970. So then you've got the 1970s, the mid 70s recession, the late 70s Recession the early 80s Recession Rights Yada Yada.

Well you can see is that this chart usually bottoms at the end of a recession. Look at that. Notice how it it leaves the bottom at the end of a recession. It bounces along that bottom in the recession.

But it the recession is almost always over by the time it flip-flops See that? Look at that. That's interesting. So where are we right now? Oh crap. look at that or out of the potential bottom territory there.

So is it then possible that when recession designers is there? I Say that word. The uh Bureau of economic research ends up deciding the National Bureau of economic research. The Nber ends up deciding. Okay, yep, we were officially in a recession from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023.

or even Q4 2022. What they might end up doing is they might end up drawing this. Oops. Let's use a little bit of a smaller pencil here.

Imagine this. How funky would this be if the recession ended right there? We drew this box? There we go. What if that ends up being the recession, right? What if 2022 was the recession and this economic model just like it's been correct in the past, correctly correctly signals that we have already passed the recessionary pain and that any other kind of future hiccups are potentially already priced in to the market. Now we're still low, right? Don't get me wrong, we're still substantially low here, and we're still in that sort of volatile area here.

But it's somewhat interesting. And remember, you never want to rely on just one data set. In my opinion, you want to look at the fundamentals of companies I'm a big fan of looking for High Free cash flow companies Companies with high pricing power and companies with high free cash flow and pricing power that are also getting stimulus checks I Hate to say it, but the government is basically handing out stimulus checks to some of the richest companies in the world. Taiwan Semiconductors Intel Tesla Nvidia AMD And face, it's ridiculous.

But as an investor, I'm like, well, I'm not gonna say no to the free money, nobody should. That would be stupid, but take a look at this. This is the Economic Regime index for the past six months. that is, it's a six-month moving average.

Right now, moving average is going to be less reactive to the day-to-day fluctuations, so you'll notice the bottom blue segment is a lot lower or a lot smoother. I should say. But what it shows is that we've hit that white line on the bottom. That white line on the bottom.

Let me highlight that for you. that white line down here is really the bottom. Almost the bottom here. In 2008, we went past it, right? So in this segment here, we went a little past it.

But typically this has actually indicated a bottom hitting that little white line in the 70s and the 80s and the early 90s. And look at what the six month moving average just hit. It's interesting. So uh, what do S P 500 returns usually do? Now again I Want to just briefly caution when we talk about these S P 500 returns briefly.

Just want to give a caution that I'm not the biggest fan of the S P 500 right Now That's just my opinion. I Think if you go through the top 60 stocks in the S P 500, there are too many of them that are exposed to Commodities Staples health care. That, in my opinion, it's just my opinion, aren't actually going to do as well as they potentially could. uh, going forward.

So that's where I'd rather be focusing my energy and attention specifically on pricing power style stocks, a lot of those shares, tax. But but you've heard that all before, right? So that's that's I Don't want to sound redundant here. Uh, but what I do want to focus on is is really this this? uh, the S P 500 forward returns that Bloomberg is projecting. Now who knows.

it's just projections, so we don't know. Uh, but Bloomberg's S P 500 forward returns are the following. So so after that index hits its bottom. Bloomberg estimates that the S P 500 historical average between 1970 to 2023 three months forward.

After this economic index hits its bottom out of eight recessions, it has only been negative once on a three-month forward basis. That's pretty impressive. Those are good odds. I mean seven out of eight times this is positive.

The S P 500 is actually positive in a three month period. In addition to that, if you look at six months forward, you're also looking at being positive seven out of eight times, which is also quite impressive. Uh, and then if you look at the one year forward, also, seven out of eight times you're positive. But not only are you positive seven out of eight times, look at the magnitude at which you're positive.

This is what's really impressive. I mean you're looking at in, uh, nineteen 80 right here. 19. Actually, no, this is 2009 and 2020.

2009 and 2020, you are positive to the tune of about 40 in the one year forward. Uh, you know the averages over here would be closer to about seven percent average up on a three-month forward. Uh, a little bit more dicey on the sixth month, which somewhat potentially aligns with this this fear that oh no, we're gonna have like a Q3 recession or whatever. Uh, but overall, these signals are pretty bullish despite the fact that their fears inflation might remain a lot higher.

uh Than People expect. Now the other uh graph that I wanted to show you is uh, is the one that we've talked about previously and it that's the copper index. So if you want to see that as an index that was potentially flashing uh, an inflection of okay, here we go like this is this is the sign to be up. You could Google that one yourself.

Or you could watch a video that I posted just a couple days ago talking about the Coppock index. Uh, in fact, I want to say I posted that on the 14th or the 13th just so you can have the reference to it, there's the 14th or the 13th and let's see. uh, it was actually probably the 13th. Oh yeah, here it is I believe I called it massive flip.

Uh, coming to stocks. Yes, that's where it was. Massive flip. Coming to stocks, you could watch that video in detail if you really want your like bullish tingleness to trigger.

Watch that. if you're a bear, you probably don't want to watch this because this cop box signal here, whatever clock signal is is indicating uh, some some bullishness that historically has fired almost always at the bottom. it has pre-fired I think once in the past actually has no, No. I Don't think this one's ever pre-fired Yeah, look at this and it's not trying to time the bottom.

it, it triggers just past the bottom. Uh, almost every single time it triggers just past the bottom. I Think there was another index that we looked at. let me see here.

Uh, the other index. Yeah, this was the other index we looked at. This was the thrust Index This one had a few misfirings. Uh, so there are a few times the thrust index actually fired a little too early, but the uh, copper was almost always right in suggesting we were just past the bottom.

so maybe the bottom is in. Now to me, that's pretty dang exciting because obviously I believe in the Nike Swoosh style recovery. I Think it's going to be volatile, but I agree I think the worst is behind us. It's going to take a lot of new pole Volker Style Fear for us to get back to the bottom for the bear first.

Sorry for the Bulls Pretty excited and I'm happy for y'all so we'll see what happens over the next uh, six to 12 months here. Let's just say pretty bullish. Check out Stream Yard by the way that Kevin.com Stream Yard by the way helps me make all my live streams and pretty much all my videos and let me put banners up. They're really phenomenal and fantastic.

So make sure you check out stream you have. it's a sponsor of the channel, paid promo or to Metcaven.com or just go to my website Meetcava.com All righty Next Shark Man, what do we want to talk about next? So that's a fun one. That's a lot. Oh, we had a couple other things here.

Oh man, Desmond says we're in a complacency stage. Where's your evidence? Give me. Give me some evidence. Come on.

let's debate I Want I want to take your evidence and I just wanted all over. Give me the evidence. So I want to absorb it I want to feel it because I don't feel it right now I feel nothing. The evidence is too soft all right now.

Um, what else? All right? let's see here now they are going to talk about something else. Uh I think this is just like designed to be a good starting point for something here and video will be a hundred dollars. Wednesday When China invades Taiwan Yes, yeah, so um, look at Reit index. come on man.

you can't possibly tell me. but the entire Market is gonna go dumb because of rates. Dude, of course REITs are selling off commercial real estate is trash right now. Yeah, it's probably gonna anchor real estate prices down, but real estate almost always blags the stock market.

There's so little correlation between what happens in the stocks in real estate. it's shocking. Uh, so so that's that's not. That's not evidence.

Actual bullish evidence is too soft. Well, where's your bearish evidence then? Where is it? How many earnings calls have you read that that are reiterating your fears? Not sure if you follow Wall Street self exams from extraction to extortion to racism. So if you want to as a silver Deegan Club you're curious. Okay, well, thank you for shouting out the silver Deegan club twice.

You donated ten dollars before and five dollars. Now, how long did I date before marriage? Yes, Uh, actually. I never dated I I Immediately fell in love in high school, never looked back, and then ended up having two children and moving out to California and living happily ever after. Have you seen Knocking wood? Have you seen the treasury 10 year in the two year? Oh, the inversion.

You know the problem with the inverted yield curve because the inverted yield curve is the strongest argument the Bears have. It's the strongest argument. That's the best argument you have. You finally found it.

You finally found the best argument the Bears have. It's basically the only argument the Bears have In Fairness. Yes, the yield curve doesn't look very good. However, it is possible to argue that the yield curve is so horribly inverted because inflation is so high right now, requiring higher yields on treasuries today.

uh, than in the future. Now you might ask yourself, Well, why was that same argument not possible in the 70s? Well, because people didn't think inflation was going to go away today, nobody actually thinks inflation is going to stay high for very long. So it's entirely possible that because of the distortions of inflation, the yield curve could actually, potentially, even for the first time, ever, be signaling a massive misfiring. Because remember how the Bond market functions: The bond market is a function of people wanting as real of a return as possible.

So if inflation is seven percent, they're not going to buy treasuries unless they're getting substantially rewarded for buying those treasuries. So the yields have to go to four percent Basically four to five percent for people to buy them. And then you get an equilibrium. Whereas nobody actually thinks inflation is going to be this high in 10 years.

So people like I'll take three percent on the 10-year or whatever. right? Uh, or 3.3 or whatever. Yes, that looks inverted because it is inverted. But from a from a market Dynamic point of view, it actually makes sense.

It's logical now. I Understand, it's dangerous to say, you know. Oh, things are different this time. I Get it like I'm always the person who warns of that right? I'm just saying there is a plausible explanation as to why the inverted yield curve is broken and I'm not suggesting it is.

That's why I say I think that is the best bear argument the Bears have. In fact, I personally think will probably have a sort of second wave a shallow recession like I think the inverted yield Curve will end up still being correct, but not to the severity of some of the recessions of the past. So uh, but I think the stock market's already heavily priced in the odds, you know 60 to 80 odds that we have another little shallow recession. So I think you might look at 2022 and go Okay, we had a recessionary time and then you might look at the end of 23 and early 24s recessionary time and so you kind of have this double dip.

but the stock market could Nike Swoosh right through that and and the depth of the inversion could solely be driven by market dynamics related to the bond market. But again, most people uh I I don't think have a complete understanding of the bond market and I'm not saying I Do you know I don't trade bonds I don't really care about trading bonds I I like equities in real estate. That's what I like I just that's what I do I don't do bonds and I don't do Commodities It just is what it is. But uh, you know I mean think about it if if you're in 1980.

Oops, if you're in 1980, right? The last time the inverted yield curve was this bad and you're like oh my gosh, Inflation's never going to go down below 15, right? Well, you're you're gonna need this massive massive compensation. Uh, not only in the near term. Uh, but but you know, maybe it'll be lower in the long term, right? But the expectations were such that uh, your your requirement for compensation on treasuries was so extreme back in the 1980s? Uh, and you had therefore this massive inversion much like you do today, right? Uh, and the difference was that then you had expectations that were broken which ended up leading to actually a you know, a solid recession to to show and prove that hey, wait a minute, we got to get rid of inflation and we're going to push us into a recession to do so now. Interestingly, if you look at the early 1980s, the real estate market barely flinched I Think it went flat in the early 80s, but it never actually plummeted in the early 80s.

So yes, the inverted yield curve tends to Signal a recession. and yes, during High periods of inflation, you could actually distort the extremeness of uh, the inverted yield curve. Let's look at let's go back to let's see what we can see going back to the 1980s and let's see how far we can go back. Let's go look at real estate so let's look at case Schiller St Louis Red We'll go ahead and pull up a chart here.

let's go back and then let's look at the 80s and then let's see if we all right only Let's just go back to 88. Are you serious? What trash? Oh that's a bummer. I Really need a chart that goes back to to the early 80s but that we not have? What a rip-off They hide the data from us. How dare they hide the data from us? Uh, okay, fine.

we'll look at something else. Here we go. Hundred Year Historical chart for the Dow Jones So let's look at this together. Let's go to the 100 year and can we get one of these for realist dot Uh, Real Estate? No.

100 Year Case Shiller Real Estate. Now you just can't get them. Oh what a ripoff! Oh here we go Case: Schiller 100 of your charts. All right, let's see here.

So um, I cannot get a good track anyway. I'll make a video on it I'll I'll get some charts and I'll show the uh uh, the annual returns of real estate. But but I do think it's very interesting. So I'll I'll follow up on that inverted yield curve argument and uh oh, I'll get some pieces from the early 80s on that I think that's very interesting.

So I'm going to write that down because I want to get to the bottom of that but I just can't get the charts right now. and I don't want to waste your time charts on uh, early 80s recession, recession? All right, So we'll take a look at that. All righty. I Love how Bassmatics says there's more flip-flopping when reality is I've been extremely consistent.

like I think sometimes people are like they don't even understand what's going on and they just say stuff that doesn't make sense. All right. So where did we do that? All right, Thanks. All right.

So the next topic that I wanted to touch on. Oh yeah, this is more of like a story. you've consistently ride the fence. um I completely disagree with you I uh I'm in the middle when it comes to politics so I don't know if you're like co-mingling two different things, but I've been extremely clear with my attitude on the stock market always.

I'm extremely clear about that. like when I sold in January of 2022 I told everyone uh, exactly what my thesis was and I was made fun of for going from such a consistent mentality to changing directions right? and then I made it very clear when I changed directions again and started opening back up the stocks and then the Nike Swoosh Theory Like this is an evolution, right? It's not there, there's been, you know. I I I Are you just a title reader? Like it's just not logical. Like if you go through the actual content like you're you're missing the boat massively so.

Okay. Anyway, uh so let's go ahead and um, uh, thumbnails too. Yeah. I mean who cares? Who gives a like let's be real here? Do you really come to to like scroll through my YouTube channel to read the titles.

If you do that, that's your fault. like go go scroll on Twitter If you want to read titles, don't scroll on YouTube But I don't think most people who are here do that. I think most people who come on YouTube are smart people who are interested in some new perspective on something and uh and and they you know they look for value and I think smart people do that. They look for value and you don't get value in titles.

uh so so I mean anyone who's that? Yeah, but you you tell you it's just a uh like welcome to YouTube you be a content creator All right. So next we gotta tell a story time. So now I've got to tell a little story but it's a story that hit me pretty hard yesterday. So yesterday where was I oh that's right yesterday I uh I went shooting see I have a little leftover bullet here from the range.

so I went shooting I went to an outdoor range in a mining query and I had this small uh group uh, lesson and uh we go out to a mining query. it's really cool and uh the weather was amazing it's out here in California and I was with these two dudes. uh they almost looked like they could have both been cops. but I think one was like a surgeon and and the other was uh, like a massive like Nationwide uh contractor like an electrical contractor.

It was really really cool these guys. They were so nice and they were really insightful. But I'll tell you I spent a lot of time while I was there. relatively quiet because it was me, them too and the instructor uh the instructors will say and uh, what was really eye-opening to me and and it was almost like chilling.

Like bone chilling to me. it was. it was really scary. Uh, it was probably honestly one of the saddest things I've heard in my life.

or or maybe even like dare I say the scariest thing in my life. So we get in the Sprinter van and what is this? a nine mil? This is a 40 Hollow right here. Um anyway, all right, so saddest thing. So uh I'm I get in the van and the entire ride to the mining Quarry both of them who are probably like 65.

both of them were like yeah so and so just passed away from cancer and the other one's like oh I'm sorry and then you know then he's like my wife just had a stroke and you know she's recovering and then the other guy's like I just got over prostate cancer and and uh oh my wife. you know she's she's going through chemo. she thought she was gonna be done. She's on round 11 out of 15.

If chemo's lost like 20 pounds and and she's like I'm I'm almost through I've almost made it and now the doctor's like we're gonna have to keep going and and these people they're like you know, the the wife and the husband one of them, they're surgeons and uh you know one of the things they said hit me so hard they're like did you think we would work for 40 years just to have our retirement be spent like this and what they're saying was did you think we would go to basically med school for 12 years and then be surgeons for 10 years and and work their ass off? You know, basically for Combined 40 years to finally have the freedom of retirement only to be dealing with the hell of of basically age and ailments and and uh, whether it's a lack of energy or cancer recoveries or the inability to travel because of treatments or or friends and family dying or all this like craziness and I'm just like this is like literally the saddest place I could be right now, but it was actually probably the best place to be because I'm 31 and it hit me really hard because I'm like damn you know that that goes to show that like you should do whatever you can and not say no to experiences in your life. When you can have the experiences you know I think so many of us, especially in the financial Community uh we we get so like tight. sometimes with money it's like no no I don't want to spend money on that I want to save because I want my investments to grow up. But really, what you're doing when you're constantly saving for retirement is you're borrowing from today to give to an uncertain future and that's really scary.

That's really scary and it's real life you know. But it's scary and and so my thinking, you know the wake-up call to me has been and I felt this way probably more for like the last year. uh maybe since I turned 30. uh is is this idea of like hey, you got to make sure that you take advantage of all the experiences that you can because the future is uncertain and you want to get in whatever you can.

Now if you have the energy to have fun and and uh, you know Work Hard Play Hard do it. and I think that's something that I've always really lived by is the idea of it's okay to work hard like I'm not saying don't grind I'm not saying don't invest I'm not saying don't you know work overtime I'm okay with that. like I work a lot Uh, I probably I you know I I would guess I I work somewhere around 100 hours a week and just like it's always work and maybe there's 15 hours on a regular week for family, right? That's like a couple hours a day. It's not a lot.

it's mostly just work, work, work, work. And that's because because I've got three different jobs you know it's running an ETF, the financial advising side, the the real estate startup a YouTube and social media and and coordinating teams around that. It's a lot of work. but I'm also willing to make sure that when I travel with family, we have a blast.

I mean I Have to say I just went to uh, what was it um Deer Valley actually briefly went skiing with Ross but I had a blast scheme with my five-year-old my seven-year-old my wife and we had a great time. You know you're going in the pool in the spa when it's like freezing outside, but but you know it's all just fogged up because uh, because they keep the the water temperature so hot. uh, everything looks like it's steaming, just water vapor. It's not actually steam.

but anyway, it's uh, you know those are the sort of experiences that that you want to share with the people around you that you love and care about and friends and family. and so I think it's really good even though we're always talking about Finance to remember like not everything in your life has to be you taking the back seat uh to to really good experiences because you're trying to save a few extra bucks like personally I cringe when people are like oh no, I don't want to spend money on like a Starbucks I just it makes me want to vomit I'm like really, you think so little of yourself that you can't work a little harder to make that up or like really, you're gonna go to to I don't know Disney World and you're not gonna pay for the the fast tickets or whatever they call them uh like really, you're gonna, you're gonna spend your time in the line if you have the ability to afford it like what are you doing your time is so valuable and I think that that experience of when I went shooting with the folks, it really made me realize like wow, you know you gotta double down on making sure you're taking those moments and those experiences because you don't know how long you're going to be able to anymore I mean we when we did, uh like running shooting drills one of the guys he couldn't do them and it's like I'm gonna sit out the the running shooting drills you know what what the hell I didn't say that obviously but I'm just thinking to myself like I don't want to be 65 and then be like oh I gotta sit out the running shooting drills because I can't run I'm like that sucks uh you know like I don't know I I I I it's it was um it I don't know. it hit me pretty hard. it was just this, uh, pretty wild.

uh sort of wake-up call. like I think that line was so impactful. Uh about not only them talking about all these people dying which is obviously terrible and all these people having these ailments, but also just the line of did you imagine we'd work our whole lives just to spend our retirement like this And it's like ah, because what do you have in retirement? A number, right? You have a number, a number and yourself. That's what you have when you retire yourself and a number.

and like, you have to be able to do something with that number. Whether it's five million dollars, a billion dollars, 10 million, 100 million you have to be able to function and do something if you can. It's like what was the point. So uh, so have some fun as you go through the Journey My father-in-law always calls it the journey Like you you you don't want to, you don't want to be the person and I'm guilty of this too.

Where like you get in the car to go on a road trip and you're so focused on like getting there that you're missing the fun of like stopping at that funky gas station in the middle of nowhere. Like the entertainment that happens along the way because you're so anxious to get to the destination. The problem is, if you're so anxious to get to the destination, well, the destination. Let's put it this way, the Destination Life ain't that great.

Like where you're going is like game over, right? They don't have a sound clip of this here. Game over. Yeah, like that's the destination. So so you gotta enjoy the ups and downs.

You know the these and these and you know a little bit of manipulation along the way. Check out the programs on building your wealth link down below. I Have to do that right after you know the Age of Empires Anyway, that was pretty impactful to me and and then you know then there's just like unfairness that happens I mean then you see people that you know it's terrible, but there are people who are in there I Know somebody right now. actually a good friend of mine, his wife's got cancer and she's like 24.

and I'm like what the hell like that's not even fair, that's just that's just wrong. you know. And like three kids, it's just it's just it's so sad, it's so terrible. so uh, you know.

So anyway I don't know. Uh, hopefully you could. You can enjoy uh, life out there as as much as you can. Um, you know.

Go. Go. have fun. Don't don't take yourself too seriously I think Probably the biggest lesson that I've always learned is um, you know, probably the biggest lesson I would say is life is all about two steps forward.

one step back. but you kind of have to look at those one step backs as just part of the game. like I think sometimes we get so frustrated like ah, it feels like I'm always getting set back. It's like that's part of the game man like you gotta play the game and and enjoy that.

Uh, so somebody here says one should stop drinking alcohol if they want to have a productive last 20 years. Yeah, I don't know I mean I I pretty much am totally off alcohol. uh which is I've actually inspired my dad as well to stop drinking alcohol. he's how old is he now 40 foot and he's coming up on 71.

uh, that's probably pretty good. Somebody here writes Doge from the future If you appreciate these morning meetings, send a cup about oh well I think you appreciate that. That's really nice of you to say. In the old days the husband was the hunter for food, but in modern times the husband is the hunter for our family.

the hunter is from. uh with Tammy saying that here uh I think that's where the talk about priorities because we need like, don't get me wrong, like I'm not saying don't work right I want to be very clear about that I'm not saying don't work uh I'm just saying like work hard but then also have fun uh like go go do something like let me put it this way, Okay, so so last year okay I'll give you a little bit more background here this is: I think this might be interesting So in 2021 I was thinking about creating a stock brokerage. It was going to be a combination between uh, probably M1 finance and Weeble something like in the middle and we were going to do like automatic Wheeling of options and and there's some really cool things. The problem is, when we were in discussions with both Finra and Apex as well as some other institutions and and uh, market makers, we're realizing there's no money to be made in the stock brokerage business.

I don't like starting businesses that can't make any money like yesterday I was thinking about I was researching you know, credit cards backed by home equity and I found a company that I won't reveal but I basically think is a fraud and I think they're a fraud because they have so little demand I don't think there's money to be made in that because I don't think homeowners care about credit cards secured to their home equity I think they're like hell no, my home equity sacred like f off. So so if there's no money to be made in something, I'm not going to do it. So uh for example, on this idea of starting a stock brokerage, we uh after my campaign for governor in 21 we we were in that idea for about two and a half months and we killed the idea because a we saw an inflection, a massive inflection in the market. That's back when I shorted Arc k at like 100 bucks and we saw massive inflection on the market.

It we figured it would be near impossible to get people to sign up for a brokerage in a bad market, so we killed that idea like a month later. Lo and behold, Sam Bankman Freed's on CNBC getting interviewed by Becky quick talking about how he wants to create a stock brokerage. Now in hindsight, we're like, of course that fraud wanted to find more ways to attract Capital but Becky quick she's like hey, well, how are you going to make money in a stock brokerage He's like oh, we're not, It's a lost leader and it's like, well, good thing we didn't go down that road I mean we figured that out ourselves, right? Uh, but I don't want to do businesses that don't make money so in 2022 instead I I launched businesses that I think have have very real potential in the long term to make a great deal of money. I mean no guarantees, but I mean think about what I did in 2022 I launched an ETF which I think is a phenomenal uh Financial product and you learn more about it at me, Kevin.com uh I launched a real estate startup which I think is going to make a lot of money and I didn't do that because I wanted to work less right I did it because I got to ring the bell at the New York Stock Exchange I get to do a startup I get to employ a lot of people and share the visions that I have for for both socks and real estate with millions of people.

like. That's exciting to me, but that excitement also helps me unlock excitement just in regular life. Whether it's it's you know, going paintballing with the team or whatever. like actually again Work Hard Play Hard uh obviously.

I Also, I bought a plane in 2022 which was really phenomenal because it's basically free for the first year which is amazing. Uh, thanks to the tax benefits but uh, you know a lot of people look at that. they're like oh, you're just trying to finance the lifestyle if you look it's like if anything, that that thing has made me work a lot harder. Uh, because I I travel for work so much.

but the beauty about it is it really has enabled me to be very, very quick. I could get a lot done very quickly. Uh, for example, I'll give you an example here. we did some math.

Uh, so I'll give you some PJ math. Okay, now some people like oh Kevin you're just trying to justify this I don't have to justify Jack's to anybody like playing is mine I don't have to justify anything to anyone. Uh, but we