What's going on, Guys, welcome back to the channel. appreciate you guys tuning in. I Figured I'd go ahead post another video today as I said I would in this video we're going to be covering, uh, the short term analysis of the market. uh, what you might be able to expect and kind of what's been going on over the past week or two.

All right. So first thing we're going to do is just kind of look at this chart here without any V-waps Again, we're just going to solely use um, uh, the 30 minute chart and we're going to be looking at, um, excuse me, we're going to be looking at the 10 SMA and the 50 SMA. All right, so let's just go back to this here. We'll start from kind of this this whole bottom area if you will.

So just looking at a moving average system and strategy, this would say here would be the start of a Long play as we break over the 50 SMA and you're allowed to be long biased. Uh, obviously, until the move goes in your favor, you take profit or until it re-breaks the 50. So essentially, when we get over the 50 here, we can be long bias. All right.

Market eventually sells back down. it starts to break and close below the 50 SMA that would dictate a new cell into the market. And here is your downswing. Now we can only get long bias to Market again.

Uh, theoretically when we get over the 50 SMA So I'm going to go ahead and uh, just delete this drawing real quick and I'm not going to use it again because it gets a little uh, gets a little busy. All right. So I'm just going to use this. Arrow All right.

so this is a break of the 50. There's your alarm. That's a breakdown of the 50.. there's your bearish move.

Here's your re-break of the 50. Closing above, there's your long. Here's your breakdown of the 50 SMA And there's your short. Here's your most recent break of the 50 and you get a couple little pops re-tests pop, and now we're back below the 50.

So you'd be no longer long biased. You'd be in cash expecting a drop to potentially follow. or if you start to reclaim long, then we could be back on long. But essentially, the rule is when you're below the 50 SMA the red one.

It's most likely a bearish trend or your minimum in cash, right? So you had a quick long over it, went right back to cash and throughout this whole point, you're thinking: should I buy this dip should I Buy this dip Should I Buy this dip should I Buy this stuff Etc Or you can just wait until you start to get clearance over the 50 SMA And then you can add long into the dips and on the retest and you'd catch this long, right? So if you're thinking about this this right here, you could avoid this whole downturn every single one of those dip. Longs because it wasn't over the 50 SMA Waited for it to break the 50. SMA You could have took some long here and held even through this dip. Why? Because it's above the 50.

so you might want red for a little bit and then it pushes into a line. All right. So that's just the general you know concept of the system. So when you look at where we're at right now, you can see the market is starting to get below the 50 SMA right now.

So the rule is, you're back to cash, back to cash. All right. We had a break over the 50 SMA yesterday. Pre-market led to a long all the way to a 449 on the market.

Then we pulled back. Doesn't matter to another bounce and this morning, what do we do? We retested the 50 SMA and did a beautiful long bounce and then we've sold off and dropped below the 50 SMA And this is where you'd be No longer long bias and you would be in cash or bearish. Bearish means you're taking on more risk. cash.

Beans, You're being more conservative. Okay, because it's possible to get false signals here and there. But bottom line is, um, the the more conservative approach is to just by long over the 50 and if you get a break, go to Cash Take No Short trades, wait for the next buy over the 50, add long take profit once you break the 50. just go to cash.

Don't even try to short. If we get a break, go to the 50. start trading along again. That's a conservative approach.

The more aggressive trading style would be long over the 50. Take profit. Add shorts below the 50. Take profit, add long.

So you're doing constant in and out back and forth on the market obviously. Trading Long and short, back to back, to back to back to back can sometimes be a little strenuous on your psychology and so again, choose your style more aggressive, less aggressive, so on, so forth. So right now we're below the 50 SMA Which basically means we're in cash right now. We're not going to be long biased.

now we're coming into CPI tomorrow. So for what it's worth, I Don't expect that this break of the 50 is going to lead to a gigantic sell-off Um, I could be wrong. but ultimately I think we're going to kind of maintain somewhere around this 50. SMA by tomorrow morning going into, uh, pre-market as they release some CPI data.

All right. So regardless of what will or won't happen, doesn't matter. We're below the 50. so we're in cash and the market can really do whatever it wants from this point forward.

Okay, um, so there's a couple other things that I will show you in this video and that's just kind of the current buy and sell signals and how we go about picking some price targets. Okay, because you could be looking at these buy moves and these sell moves below the 50 SMA and that's great. But how far is a move going to go? When do you take profits or when do you think there is going to be strong price points in the chart that could maybe reverse the position you're in? So this is going to get into way more detailed analysis Again, What I just showed you is a very simple approach to generally being on the right side of the market every single time. So again, if you just go by over the 15, I can trade long if it's under the 50.

go cash over the 50 I Can trade long under the 50. Go cash. If you stick to that, you'll do very, very well. You'll be on the right side of the trend for the most part.

Now What I'm going to show you here is going to be way more in-depth analysis to really help you try to pinpoint markets which can get a little crazy at times you know and so you might like the more simple approach. But anyways, here we go. So what I just taught you is kind of the buy and sell signal and there's a tactic that you can use with volume weighted average prices in between those moving averages to give you more detail. So something that I would do is I'd be tracking this sell signal move.

So I'd pretty much start tracking this from here. All right. Um, one second from like that's the breakdown. so arguably be like something like this.

Okay, so I'd be tracking it from right around here and there's reasons why I won't go into. It's just too in-depth Uh, it'll confuse you more than more than anything. But the general idea is to anchor your V web. If it's a bearish move, you're going to Anchor it with the settings to high so that would be like this.

you'd be like that's not even going to go into I'm not going to just again. Uh, this is where we got the cell signal So Based on this area, I'm going to find what I believe to be the most um, important candle to Anchor to to Then give me the the following Trend All right. So the moving averages are giving me the trend, but now I want to see the volume. Okay so the logic here is where this arrow is pointing and this cross that's a sell signal and then I'm using this candle because to me that's the most important candle that took place right around the cross to Anchor to before the move happens.

So the cons up here is sell signal. We can go bearish. There's going to probably be a bearish move, and if there is a bearish move, the volume weighted average price is going to be this red line and as long as the Market's below this red line, we won't see one of those reversal shift pops. Okay, what I mean by that is again, you can see the market is down, It bounces, hits the view app sells off we bounce, hit the V web cell, off we pop up, we clear the view app and we get the reversal Pop move.

Okay, so using this 30 minute SMA chart, we then add a volume weighted average price to it that tracks each signal that the SMA chart provides. So this is a signal down Here this is a signal. so there'd be a V-wap trade around here A View app here, etc. etc.

So for each cross and Signal we get in the market. we then anchory V web system. On top of that that is going to give us a volume perspective of the chart and what I mean is. Now when we look at the V web, we're able to see sort of volume levels where we know volume is concentrated.

So you can pretty much put it this way. When this cell signal started, this red line is the main volume level of everyone trading short and this purple line is sort of the max the upper distribution level of all of this volume. Okay, so the way that we would use this is here's the sell signal. As long as the Market's below the red line, the move can stay bearish if we break over the red line we should expect the market is then going to break out to the upside and it will then go to the upper distribution level.

The upper distribution level will be the max long. All right. So when we think about the SMA system, remember we said under the 50 SMA you're bearish And if you get over the 50 SMA you can get bullish so you will see that pre-market The market breaks over the 50 SMA here. So at this point in the chart we would start considering long and then as the market gets up to the V web and breaks over the V-wap we would say okay, the market should go to the purple So if you weren't running the V web system you would just say to yourself this all right So if you're not running the View app system you would just say to yourself under the 50i can be bearish or in cash over the 50 I can be bullish.

The way that I would add on top of that system to give me more detail would be like this: Starting from under the 50 is bearish. This is a sell signal because the 10 crosses the 50. So this is a signal spot for a bearish move. Now let's track that signal even further.

Let's start to read what is all the volume of that signal doing? All right. So we do that. We'd be anchoring this View app to it. So now I'm tracking the volume of that cell signal and the volume of that cell signal tells me that as long as the market maintains below this red line, there's not going to be the breakout shift move.

But when we get over it, we will have it and you can trade up to the purple right simultaneously. What are the original founding rules? They are below the 50 which is the red SMA bearish over the red SMA Bullish. Okay, so it's the Smas that dictate your trend and it is the volume level that helps you understand additional resistance and shifts in the chart. So this chart would tell us that we broke over the 50.

We can be long Then the rules would would tell us when we break over the V web. here it shifts to the purple. So if you were getting long over this 50 SMA and go what's my target on the long you would say to yourself I know we're over the 50. That means I can be long bias and if we cleared this V-wap from the previous sell signal, we should take anyone who is short and push them to their max pain and that's the purple and that would be your long Target All right now, let's walk through that one more time, but on the buy side.

Okay, so remember we just had a cell signal move here all right. And when the market flipped bullish, we used the previous sell signals for a target for the long now. I'll show it to you on a short. All right.

So over the 50 with the Buy Signal is long. so this is a long signal here. Okay, based on that long signal, I would do something like this. I would anchor my long like this.

Then I'm going to change this to a green to represent you know, support or long. All right. And uh, okay, all right now let's reverse the logic. This is a buy because we broke over the 50 and we had a Buy Signal.

Now the rules of this would be the market can only do that big reversal to the downside once it's below the V-wap and it will shift to the lower band, right? So if I add that previous I'm not going to do it. If you remember how we had the cell signal here and once it broke through the middle band, it would pop to the upper. That's the same thing here. This is a buy move.

Once the market breaks below the V-wap it can shift to the lower band. So this is probably where today's long is going to end. Somewhere around here, it would be logical. Okay, Um, now remember what we said: The View App does not dictate the trend.

It dictates volume levels. The Smas dictate the trend. So if you look, you will see that right here. We broke down the middle View app.

Why did we not go to the lower distribution? Because the Smas dictate Trend When you're over the 50, you're long bias. When you're below it, you can go bearish. So earlier this morning when we came into the V-wap here and eventually it breaks, where did it go? It went to the 50 SMA and we bounced. Remember, if you're breaking over the 50, you assume the 50 SMA is support.

Just as if you're breaking under the 50, you assume the 50 SMA is resistance. So again, you break over the 50, you're long. It can sell all the way down to the 50 SMA and you're still long. It's when it breaks the 50 SMA you go to cash.

So later in the afternoon the market finally broke the 50 SMA. Thus, the market is Shifting bearish. Now you see, we drop to the lower band. see.

Earlier in the morning though, we broke the View app, we still were over the 50 SMA. so the trend would be the 50 SMA. Later in the afternoon when we break down the 50 SMA, you can see we shift all the way to the lower man and that should be expected because again, we broke the V web and now we're breaking the 50 SMA. Therefore, the trend is Shifting bearish and we're going to wash all of the volume that was long biased to their Max Pane and that's there.

Okay, so where are we at now? So right now we are essentially back to a in the short term, a bearish market. We're not long bias because we're not over the 50. and we're coming into some CPI things tomorrow. So realistically, we should just be cash to short bias going into tomorrow morning and then wait for the CPI release to then take on new bets.

But the way it's looking right now is the market is entering into a sell move prior to CPI. So with that being said, from uh, the last hour, yeah, about an hour ago or so you should have been cash in the market. No Longs anymore. went straight cash.

All right guys, take care and I'll catch you on the next one.