This video is brought to you by streamyard professional, live streaming, software that you can get by going to metkevin.com streamyard all through your web. Browser really awesome check it out by going back, kevin.com streamyard right next to the link down below for the amazing programs on building your wealth and that's cyber kevin coupon code, because we're going to the cyber rodeo today, let's go, you know, i have to say: what's Very interesting i've been kind of frustrated about the fed. Just yapping i mean we had the fomc meeting. Then they had yap week and it's like oh my gosh, okay yeah week was really annoying.

Then yesterday we had brain art have to yap, and now we get the minutes coming out today and it's like more and more they're yapping it's just like. Oh my gosh. It hurts the stock market right, but but there's actually something interesting coming along with it. Look.

What's happening to the 10-year treasury yield look over here, it has uninverted and it's now at a 10 basis, point spread. We go to the five-year break, even it's fall in a good chunk and it's very stable. So, even though the stock market is feeling like some big pain right now, their yapping is actually kind of accomplishing what they want. They don't want an inverted tend to.

They want inflation expectations to come down. That's actually a good thing. It's a sign that the market in in a weird and bizarre way believes that the fed is now going to be more serious than they were last year in 2021.. Listen to this crap! Now i mean first of all.

Let me just make this very clear: the market's been pricing in seven to eight 25 basis, point hikes, for i don't know months now. Okay, i mean we've gone from january to now from pricing, and you know six hikes to eight hikes big deal. It's always been in that range right personally, i think we're gon na end up seeing some form of a total of 10 to 17 25 basis. Point hikes it's crazy, but but i think they're going to stay with that slow and methodical pace, because that's literally what brainard said she said brandon she said not her name.

She said methodical and uh and consistent. Oh steady, methodical and steady pace. These are words that jerome powell has used as well and powell's referred back to the early 2000s for hey 25 basis. Point hikes right, but listen to now what the suits are saying.

The suits are now betting that the fed will implement an additional 225 basis. Points of rake hikes this year, which isn't possible unless they have at least two 50 bp hikes, because there are only seven uh, seven well, six more meetings, uh so anyway, uh. That means we could actually have a year like 1994, which is what the one hawk over at the fed is referred to. Mr bullard and his uh.

His reference to 1994 is look. We can go one basic like like one full percentage, point hike and then do 25 bp hikes, because we're so far behind the curve - and we can still have a soft landing like we did in 1994, which at least that's their argument. Although 1994 was also coming out of the early 90s recession and in fairness, we're coming out of kind of a recession now, but we did have this massive boom in between this post. Coveted boom right so kind of interesting but 1994 was also a pretty dang brutal year for bond investors and when we look at bonds dude.

The last thing i want to buy right now are bonds because they are just their yields are literally going to their the moon, which uh basically means, if you buy bonds, you're losing value the underlying principle, like crazy, look at the freaking 10 year. This is insane. It's now 2.6. I get i've been complaining, since this thing was 1.7 that this thing's going to three percent plus uh.

I don't know probably in every freaking video now and i still keep getting comments where people are like. There's no waves going back to three percent. There's no way they're going to be able to push yields that high, like they did in the past yeah. They absolutely can.

There is no cap in terms of how high they need to hike, and i think this is something that you just have to buckle up for the markets. You have to buckle up for a lot of pain coming from the fed. Now today's the fomc minutes release date, where we're expecting to see how big of a taper we're going to get in the past. We've done 90 billion dollars a month.

Maybe now we'll do as much of double, because brainerd came out and said we're gon na we're gon na you know taper much more rapidly than we did in the past. That's the same thing. They told us in the december meeting the december meeting. They said hey, we got a lot more money uh now that we owe or that we've borrowed.

Essentially, yes, i think we've got a shorter term duration. We need to run this balance sheet off faster than we ever have before. Okay, so what so? They come in with 180 uh billion dollar a taper per month, starting say june, or whatever big freaking deal like with finally like. We would expect some policy normalization right, but obviously the market is reacting to these 10 years, jumping uh, and so i mean quite frankly, the easiest thing to do when it comes to the stock market is just not look on days like today, but uh.

Personally, i'm i'm i'm not unexpecting this kind of stuff. It kind of sucks, though, because i do have some bets on arc: oh well, uh and then obviously i've got big, a big chunk in like end phase and that thing's down like five percent today, bummer uh, but that's okay. It's still up substantially. I mean look at it it's at 199.

It's still up like 80 points, uh, but anyway uh you know it. You know what what kind of bets can you make in this environment? Well, you can make bets on on the vix, like one thing that i like to do is uh you. This right here is a sh, the short term vix uh, shorting it and uh. When the vix skyrockets this falls, and so what you could actually do is when this has like a large fall to the downside, you can buy this this svxy and then sell it.

When that vix falls again, does the opposite of the fix? It's it's not uh. I mean it's: okay, the other one you could do is uv x y and this one moves with the vix as well. So just another way, and sometimes what people do is they'll actually buy calls on this, because when it jumps, volatility goes up. At the same time as this goes up, which is obviously good for buying calls right, whereas the other one volatility is going down, not so great for for buying calls twitter's actually still surviving here and so the oil stocks.

But look the minutes are going to come out we'll go through the minutes. I'm not super scared by the minutes. I'm just aware that we are going to have a lot of fear right before every time. The fed does anything and look at this folks on the qqq.

We got rejected at 61.8. We literally hung out at 50 for a minute and we're right back to 38.2. I have not moved my little triangle here. I would not be surprised if we got a retrace to 23.6 - that's painful, but these lines are buying opportunities if you're long this market.

In my opinion, these lines are buying ops. I don't think we're gon na get back to zero percent fit on just the fed. It would have to be like crisis further crisis with ukraine or something so uh anything here anything between 38 2 and 23 6. In my opinion probably looks like a buying opportunity on the qqq uh remember, i said i was going to short qqq if we got to the top third, we actually didn't make it to the top.

Third, oh! Well! It can't be perfect all the time anyway, thanks so much for watching good luck out there stay strong and folks we'll see in the next one bye.