In this video, you are going to learn the biggest crypto Catalyst that is not the Bitcoin ETF coming up. We're going to pay attention to dates Jan 5 Jan 16 plus 15. You'll understand that in this video. If you stay to the end, you'll understand why the Unis swap decision is so critical for what's about to happen.

This is big and we'll talk Coinbase versus other brokerages like Robin Hood I. Don't know if anybody's really paying attention to this one, so buckle up. Let's get into it: There's a major Catalyst on the horizon for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry. And no, it's not the ETF for Bitcoin.

Sure, that's a catalyst as well, but this is a potentially bigger deal. In fact, this could be what ends up holding back the BTC ETF for just at least a little bit longer. But let's just say this could be some really good news. What's up on screen right here? So let's understand this, this right.

here is actually an order that that has been signed by the SEC by folks over at Coinbase and the judge presiding over this case. Between the lawsuit of the SEC versus Coinbase and this order demands that on January 17th of 2024, oral arguments on the motion for judgment will be made. There will be about 4 hours of oral arguments to be divided equal by each side on the 17th and there are some really big important implications for this. First of all, what does this mean? Okay, so let's understand this.

So basically, here's how this works and this is critical. First, the SEC Sues Coinbase. That's step number one. Okay, hey, we think you're an unregistered brokerage selling securities and we want you to sign up to be a national Securities Exchange That's basically what the SEC is saying.

Coinbase says you're wrong as a matter of a law. So they file a motion saying, look, judge, We just want you to throw this out. Look at this case, look at the facts and the law the SEC is using and agree with us that the SEC does not have a leg to stand on, Then the SEC can, uh, respond to this, uh, this statement and then there's a reply after that. Okay, so there's a little bit of back and forth and then the judge make makes a ruling.

And so when that judge rules or before that judge rules, usually what they'll do is they'll listen to oral arguments, and they might even sometimes issue a preliminary ruling as early as the night before. So potentially on January 16th mark your calendar for that, Look for potentially a preliminary ruling. This is kind of like a cop pulling you over and saying pretty sure you ran the tickets or you ran the stop sign. So I'm going to write you a ticket and they kind of come up to the window.

You ran that stop sign right? Like, well, can we talk about this right? So that's sort of This potential for a preliminary ruling? Is that judge suggesting? Here's what we think is going on and which side we're likely to agree with. It's entirely possible that this judge right here, the honorable Catherine Pulk FAA Anyway, it's entirely possible that she could rule. the SEC has no leg to stand on Via the preliminary ruling as soon as January 16th. that'll be a big Catalyst or after listening to the oral arguments which could be on the 17th or maybe even up to two weeks thereafter to file the final ruling and the ruling could either be coinbase is right, the SEC doesn't have a leg to stand on.

which might mean the idea that crypto is a security is potentially Dead Forever Or at least you'd have a pretty strong legal precedent here that that is dead forever and then the SEC might go poof. In terms of being able to Sue coinbase or arguing that Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are security. That could be a pretty big catalyst. So anywhere between January 16th and two two weeks 15 days is thereafter.

We're expecting some pretty big groundbreaking rulings here out of Le system on Crypto. Now, there's a big problem with this. The big problem with this is right here. Look at this: The ETF approval window technically expires between January 5th and January 10th.

That means a lot of the Bitcoin ETF hype could potentially fade between January 10th if we don't get that approval. And what happens with this case I Think a big highlighter will be be cast over this case Because let's say the SEC loses here. The SEC might say all right. Well, it looks like we'll approve these ETFs in the next round of approvals.

In other words, blacks, uh, you know all all these you know, Crypto ETFs will end up just refiling so to speak. Uh. and then the SEC would presumably be almost cornered into having to prove or or approve or qualify these ETFs since technically they don't like the phrase approve or if the judge comes out with a ruling that says you know what, we're going to let this case actually go to trial to Kick the Can down the road a lot. that is, of course, assuming the SEC is waiting for the outcome of this case to actually approve the ETFs, it is entirely possible these ETFs could get approved and the lawsuit continue.

so we don't know exactly. But what I will say is While Most people are bullishly right now watching this ETF approval window. A lot of folks are forgetting about this ongoing lawsuit again between the SEC and Coinbase. Now, this has a lot of implications.

First, I I Want to make it clear Coinbase is making a very strong argument. They're saying the Sec's authority is limited to Securities and not every parting of capital in the hopes of a gain qualifies. Actually, in my opinion, give a fantastic example. The example they give is right here: Look at this: Consider an artist who sells paintings over Etsy with a note that she is planning to exhibit her work in a gallery next month.

Those who read the note might buy the paintings, hoping the artist plans to increase her exposure will drive up the value of the artwork in the Sec's world. Viw, Every single sale of a painting on Etsy would be a Securities transaction. This, by the way, is literally one of the arguments Coinbase is making in that lawsuit. A judge is expected to potentially make a preliminary ruling on on January 16th and a more final ruling within the two weeks thereafter.

So these are some huge catalysts. But this is not all we've got to talk about because there's a lot to talk about in terms of Coinbase and the future of BTC pricing. Take a look at this, by the way, just so you could see it here. This is the Sec's argument: Coinbase has never registered with the commission as a national.

Securities Exchange Broker dealer or clearing agency. These things will become very, very important for the future of Coinbase. But in the meantime, you know what else is interesting? Look at this: Ford Yeah, the car guy Henry Ford From like 100 years ago actually about 104 years ago. predicted uh or wanted to replace gold with a quote energy currency and thought by taking away the money printer and the power.

So to speak of the government. maybe there would be less war. And boy that sounds a whole lot like Bitco Coin. Now next I want to get into a little bit of what an ETF approval could mean for brokerages specifically companies like Robin Hood versus Coinbase.

Which company might benefit more from an ETF spot? Bitcoin Approval coinbase or Robin Hood We'll also talk about the future of Bitcoin's price. but first message from our sponsor. Hey so many of you have been asking how hard it is to actually go live on multiple different platforms at the same time and I want to show you here how easy it is. so let's just do it raw together so watch this.

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So even though it's a paid promotion, it's a product I Use every single day and it's great. But for now, let's talk Coinbase: Did you know that 85% of Coinbase's volume? That is how many transactions happening in dollar volumes are Institutional: 85% That means $85 out of every $100 institutional. Now, about a little over onethird of all of the transactions are Bitcoin about 38% But do you know where Coinbase gets most of its revenue from I Want you to think about this? Do you think Coinbase gets most of its revenue from that 85% institutional trading or the 15% retail and consumer trading? Hm. Well, here's your answer right here: 85% of transaction volume might be institutional, but it only represents 4.8% of transaction.

Revenue Instead, almost all of Coinbase's transactional Revenue comes from consumers. And so now there's a big question: uhoh, does coin bases profit potentially from consumer? Bitcoin Co transactions? Well, which let's call it about a 100 Mil of that, right? Let's say right here: 100 Mil of this is BTC Transactional revenue. Does that potentially go away? If a lot of retail can potentially trade Bitcoin in ETFs rather than on Coinbase, that's just an idea. I'm not saying that's exactly what's going to happen.

and Coinbase has a benefit including custody, which we'll touch on in just a moment. But think about that for a moment in order to actually trade an ETF. The trading must be done through a broker dealer. Guess what? Coinbase is Not a broker dealer.

We just saw that in the lawsuit. So Coinbase can't actually trade Bitcoin ETFs but they can trade actual Bitcoin and they can custody the actual Bitcoin which may be the underlying of an ETF. But is it then possible that companies like Robin Hood or Fidelity actually end up making more money off of a Bitcoin ETF than Coinbase? Does Some people say yes, Other people say don't worry any loss over here of consumers Basically, just buying spot Bitcoin through an ETF would be made up by this. Custody Crypto Revenues: A lot of folks believe that Coinbase is going to charge somewhere around 10 basis points for cryp crypto custody.

Services Now that's a complicated word, but let's just make it simple: for every $100 billion that goes into Bitcoin ETFs that are custody. which means actually holding the real Bitcoin that's underlying that ETF Uh, every $100 billion that goes in would generate about a $100 million of Coinbase. Revenue at 10 basis points. Now it's possible Custody Services could compress and maybe the fees for that will go down, but Coinbase seems to be positioned to make make this custody fee Revenue explode even if this goes down.

In my opinion, this is actually part of that explosion of other or Phase 2 income for Coinbase. Back when Coinbase ipoed I mentioned that Coinbase was likely to face a V-shaped sort of recovery in the future and what I was predicting was that in the future I think transaction revenues will actually Decline and other revenues will go up Custody Services lend in services and otherwise and I predicted that could lead to some volatility in the stock, which it certainly has had volatility. Now, we might just now be at the beginning of the takeoff of phase Two, which if you'll notice, is already exceeding the revenue of phase One Phase One right here. just transactional.

Revenue $288 million Phase two, the other revenues already at 334 so that could really blow up. You could really see this go to zero and this really blow up even further. So that's a potential for Coinbase, so something to pay attention to. We're not entirely sure what's going to happen, but here's one thing that we do know.

Here's a comment from the suits and the suits are saying Hm, You know not only is there excitement about the having next year the expectation of an an ETF approval, but also the regulatory house cleaning of frauds going to prison is actually a fantastic positive. Catalyst for crypto because you're really cleaning out all the crap. Uh, not to say that it was crap, but B USD just got Dlisted over at Uh Binance. they Dlisted their B USD As Paos walked away from the partnership, you just had a 13th firm.

a Swiss firm called Pand one letter away from Panda. Uh, take the 13th spot for expected BT BTC ETF approvals or hopefuls I should say BTF ETF BTC ETF hopefuls. There we go. Let's get those letters right.

But anyway, you can see a lot of them here. Using Coinbase, you've got uh, not only grayscale Arc I shares listed as Coinbase Franklin listed as Coinbase, you've got one. Over here. at Fidelity you've got some Na or Tbds basically.

and Binance had an interesting blog post actually referencing Binance. They said the historical case for gold ETFs is worth examining, although a spot Bitcoin ETF cannot be expected to produce a similar effect. When we go back and look at history, What we saw is when we introduced gold ETF GLD the largest gold ETF by AUM We saw the ETF go from 1 billion in assets to 50x in six years between 2004 and 2010. Now In Fairness Gold was also very popular.

After the Great Recession and 1 billion to 50 billion would kind of be a drop in the bucket for Bitcoin. We hope that there could be a lot more. Remember, Coinbase makes about $100 million in revenue for every 100 100 billion doar they're custody at 10 basis points if those end up being the numbers. so you really want to see BTC ETFs explode to help Coinbase.

Otherwise, ironically, the brokerages might end up making more money. Interactive brokers. Whatever. anybody who's letting you trade that ETF Obviously, Bitcoin has done fantastically this year, outperforming not only World stocks, gold, bonds, and commodities.

as you can see here Commodities Actually negative for the year, but take a look at this. I Thought this was a great tweet reminder Bitcoin is not at an all-time new high until we break 78,000 because the inflation adjusted by 13.5% I would actually inflation adjust from 21 to now at about 18% which would mean that number should actually be about 81,000 Uh, but we could argue that. and then of course you have the sort of mainstream more fish stuff that goes around on Twitter which it I I Like reading it just to see what other people thing. And so for crypto, there's no inherent value.

no cash flow, no yield, no employees, no management. There's no balance sheet, no product, no service, no history of operations, no analytical valuations, no earnings reports, No proven track record of Reliance Anyway, so basically this person goes on to say this is a greater fool than I Fomo market and uh, this person had some prompt responses on Twitter which worth noting. He's also followed by Gordon Johnson the Tesla bear we've visit him at his house. he actually a nice guy in person.

Uh, these were some of the replies. uh, that happened I'm glad there's no Market manipulation in traditional markets. another one cope John another one. All that word salad when you could have just started with I don't actually know what I'm talking about Uh, sounds like you're describing the whole financial Market Really? Wow.

All right. so this right here is the uh, there's some talk right now about Bitcoin basically being overbought as you can see via the relative strength right here gives you a little bit of a chart. Although a lot of people are say oh, there's the inflation calculator Again, we had that twice. Uh, this is actually what I wanted to show a lot of folks very excited that Bitcoin is now a top 10 by market capitalization asset, gold being number one at $4 trillion.

meaning go, uh, Bitcoin is not even 10% uh, it's barely over 5% of gold Apple sitting at nearly three Trill followed by Microsoft Saudi Aramco alphabet Amazon silver Nvidia meta and then Bitcoin notice Tesla not in that list. So what did we just learn? Well, we learned we want to Mark our calendar potentially for a preliminary ruling on January 16th. Then we want to look at about the 15 days thereafter. as well as of course Jan 5 to10 for that ETF approval window.

the Jan 16th maybe preliminary ruling in the 15 days thereafter to see is coinbase going to get stuck in the mud or not? This could be a really big Catalyst for cleaning up crypto regulation and getting some really good precedent from a judge. Worth remembering that the very judge that's involved in this case back in August suggested that Bitcoin and Ethereum were Commodities That was actually decided in the Uh I believe it was the uni swap case. Yeah, it was the uni swap case. uh, lawsuit against Unis swap.

The same judge argued that Bitcoin and Ethereum were Commodities and not subject to the Sec's regulation. So you have some potentially really good bullish catalysts here for the cryptocurrency market. I Personally think in the future we're going to have our S&P 500 and NASDAQ of crypto. It's going to be a game.

Cher So stay tuned and we'll see what happens. Thanks Bye.