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Hey this is tom. I was up all night yesterday, thinking about russia, ukraine, trying to figure out what the hell is going on here, because something did not add up for me, and i was thinking about everything. That's going on right now the u.s rhetoric, the russia rhetoric. I was like that's just a front.

What's behind all this, so basically this morning we wake up and we hear that goldman sachs are basically saying well. The s p 500 is gon na drop six percent. If an all-out war starts, energy prices are going to go up by 15 and that's kind of normal, that's kind of to be expected, but there's a big. If here, if the conflict happens now here's the thing.

The question is: what exactly is going on here. So yesterday, what you heard is actually two people playing a little bit of a theater. On the one hand, you had russia basically signing a complete dismantling of the mints agreements, basically acknowledging the independence and the sovereignty of the separatist eastern ukraine, parts lugansk and the donetsk, and on the other hand, you had the uk and the us pretty much saying well Invasion has begun or to an extent. Now the question is, and what's putin trying to achieve here now, if putin really wanted to invade ukraine.

This seems like the logical path to it. You acknowledge the independence of these russian separatists. You then wait for them to call on for your help and to prevent the you know, genocide and prevent violence. You send the peacekeeping force, you create a provocation on the border and then eventually that escalates to a war.

You have an excuse. You invade you take over, that's kind of you, don't need to be a genius, that's checkers and i was laying last night and thinking well, that's checkers and he doesn't really play checkers he's more of a chess player and then i figured it out. There's really three options here and i think i know which one is actually going on here and it's going to shock you. It's not what you think so option number one that this is a test of wills.

Putin is trying to achieve. You know nato roll back to you know pre-2014 97 1990. Who knows right trying to get assurances about ukraine, but then i figured out, i think ukraine ain't going to join nato anyways they're, not even near a position to join nato. Nato doesn't want this headache.

They can't really join. Why bring it up right now, it's like saying: well, i don't want my kid injured when he's playing in the nba, the kid can't even dribble, i mean he's not going to the nba and russians. You know, isn't concerned really about ukraine going to nato, so that cannot be real. It's not about nato and all this stuff.

I know a lot of people have been talking about. You know the rhetoric sounds a lot like 1930, the breathing space and living space. Whatever i think it's just doing it to scare you guys um and then i thought to myself. Well maybe it's option number two.

Maybe it's not about nato. Maybe it's about this theater right, we're both biden and putin. They know that this is just an act and they both talk this rhetoric in order to create a situation where it actually this escalates at the end and both claim you know, the achievement biden will claim he de-escalated the war world war iii from happening. Putin will claim that he's the next stalin, slash lenin and his heritage of you know preventing ukraine from joining nato and they all get to claim their.
You know their achievements knowing all along this isn't going to war, but they need to sell this, and i thought to myself that cannot be it because if this was the case - and he doesn't really need to announce the independence and recognition of lugansk and the nietzsche, Now he probably gets this from biden as a as a peace offering there's no. If he takes it by force as it did yesterday. I don't think they're playing that game. I don't think it's orchestrated.

I think biden is opportunistic in this case. I think so is boris johnson, so is putin, but i think that while biden and boris johnson were playing checkers, i think putin was beating beating them in chess and that's what i realized last night 3 a.m. I was like, oh, i finally got it finally understand what's going on here and it's it's crazy, because it's not what you think. None of what we actually talked about so far is actually what's going on here and it freaking dawned on me.

I've been in the u.s too long not to understand this, so the one thing i need you to understand, and this is the kind of the basis of what i finally decipher this game. I understand exactly what's going on here and that's why i think there's zero percent chance of a war now, even though you may hear things like it's more worse than ever blah blah blah. Now i finally understand there's not going to be a war. Zero percent um! Well, never say never right and i've been wrong before i would say you know very unlikely.

Of course there can be a war. All you need is some. You know idiot soldier on the border to do some stupid and then um. It can escalate pretty quick to full-on war, so i don't really say zero percent.

I was just kidding, but i think low likelihood of a war. So here's what's happening here, so you have to understand that for russia and there's no business of war and that's the final point i got yesterday. Russia is not in the business of war. Russia doesn't have military contractors in the military, complex, there's no money in war to be made in russia.

It's all government owned, it's an expense. So there's no lobbying, there's no military money being made at all. Any war is a massive cost to russia nobody's making money. So there's none of this.

You know warmongering just to to make money. There's no lobby, there's no such thing, there's one guy who calls the shots and he decides everything. So if that's the case, there's one more point here, you need to understand. Also, one thing: that's different about russia and and the us and uk, and the entire western side is that russia doesn't really believe in full-on conflicts to get what they need.
They just want to be able to influence. Basically, they have this model of tsd troll subvert destabilize and when they do all three they get what they want and they can play the long game. They don't mind waiting a few years to get what they need. They don't really need a full out war.

Here's the thing think about it. This way, i think what happened is that putin put a trap for biden, boris johnson and they took it because they were too greedy and i'll, explain why so for boris, johnson and biden? This is a massive opportunity right. They get to not talk about the things that they're scared about internal problems, that they have inflation party gate. Whatever is going on over there in the uk they get to talk about this evil putin right and not that i'm saying that putin is not evil.

He's. Definitely evil, but that's a really nice distraction. It's like he's, giving them a prize sort of thing right, so they took the bait and he knew they're going to take the bait now. What happened is that when they started heating up this war rhetoric, essentially they exposed themselves because in this war rhetoric they also exposed a few things number one that they're not gon na do anything for ukraine, no troops, no equipment, no tanks, no air support, nothing.

So basically, they hung out ukraine to dry and put and expose this. The other part which is interesting is that i think that what he did right now because of how they threw ukraine under the bus is, i think he sent the message to former warsaw pact countries like poland, bulgaria, czech republic, whatever right, he basically tell him hey Your allies, you know they ain't all that and he's kind of increasing his influence in the region. Now here's the really interesting part, i think that he actually succeeded in what he really wanted to do. He succeeded in destabilizing one of the most stable, pro-western governments.

Ukraine has ever had in his history and the way he did it was nothing short of brilliant and i'm not admiring. The guy, i think, is a piece of crash and then evil dictator, but what he did. He actually checkmated biden and and boris, and i finally understood this yesterday - he basically got them to fearmonger for him because they needed it for their own political agenda. For example, yesterday we had biden screaming at zielinski the ukrainian president that he need to evacuate himself from the capital of ukraine.

Now what it did - and that's i couldn't believe i didn't figure this earlier, so he got biden to do all this. What he did is he took a situation where the u.s created and completely fear-based narrative in ukraine, so ukraine was busy with their own economy, is getting better money flowing in military is better than ever stable government pro-western everybody was dealing with making it better ukraine. For the first time in many, many years were actually moving ahead and even when the conflict began, nobody in ukraine took this seriously up until about a week ago, from all my ukrainian friends, all i heard is like this is just you know this. For the past week, because biden kept beating their wardrobe and boris and all of the western media, what happened is that people started taking this seriously? So what happens? Is you have this crazy escalation from? You know really good focus on economics focus on on on getting things done.
Panic panic will basically take a toll on the economy as we see right, take it on the economy, destabilize, current government, because you know when the economy goes south the government gets fired. A new government gets voted in, putin gets to put in his new puppet, like he did in other countries, and he doesn't need the word for that. Pretty much putin has already won, unfortunately, and because he's already won and he got what he wanted. There is no need for war, so that's why i think there's not going to be any war.

Of course. I might be wrong about this and for many reasons maybe i'm just misinterpreting him. Maybe some crazy soldier on the border will do something stupid. I don't know, but this is what i think, and i feel very strongly about this, so i actually have to double down on my prediction that there's no war coming, but let's see what happens, let me know below, especially if you're from the region.

Let me know if my logic actually talks to you all right.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

30 thoughts on “Russian invasion into ukraine not happening putin checkmated everyone”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Krzysztof says:

    I think you need to analyse more data. Ukraine has been a moeny laundering machine for Biden and his family for years now. Stable government in Ukraine? Joke! Boris Johnson and Biden capable of making their own decisions? Another joke. Those people are mere puppets. You can tell that just by watching how they speak for 5 minutes… Once you realize that, you can rethink what is happening. Difficult to tell the final goal in all this. I am pretty sure it is not up to Putin either….

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Raimondas Vaitkeviฤius says:

    Ukraine is not in the nato . Know erything is exactly different than you saying ,evry nation understands importance on nato and even more countries will join in

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars SK. N. says:

    Absolutely agree. Ukraine getting too westernized & doing too well for Putinโ€™s sensibilities, so he had to โ€œrain on their paradeโ€ to cut them back down to size. Am not from Ukraine, but LatAm, we see this often. Itโ€™s also a classic move of a calculating narcissist.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Philip Alex says:

    option 4 – Putin is a mad titan that wants domination…I would say Russian history will show they are not scared of using military force…Afghanistan…Poland

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars uriel369 says:

    I like how you try to ignore the noise and actually think beyond the schema. Puto is a very good chess player so I heard. So the real battle is not in front of you, it's many moves ahead. I don't expect the same qualities from other nation leaders. As always thank you for your thoughts!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mike Tran says:

    I think Putin is manufacturing a conflict to consolidate more power. Russia economy is hurting after Crimea invasion from sanctions and then COVID hit. The best way for him to rally the people support is to turn the Russians attention abroad. Unfortunately, this will only buy him a few years.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Drago BTC says:

    I think you were right in your other videos. He wants Ukraine back. It's his ego. I don't think it's as complicated as you stated here. He has been planning this for a long time. It worked for Crimea.

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mnemonic says:

    When Brandon implemented sanctions againsts LNR and DNR he basically acknowledged them as subjects of international law ))) If LNR and DNR from his perspective of view are unrecognized republics, then he implemented sanctions againsts territory of Ukraine )) Logic gone out of the window ๐Ÿ˜€ It's Putin's zugzwang! Let's go Brandon!

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Raimondas Vaitkeviฤius says:

    Why he waited 8 years
    The plan was not this .putin don't have any options , now it will deescalate situation

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JackFou says:

    I think you're spot on about this.
    I've been saying for a while now how strange this disconnect is between the opinions you hear from people in Russia and Ukraine vs the narrative of Biden and Johnson.
    Two-three weeks ago, no one I know from either Russia or Ukraine believed that there was going to be a war. It seemed to me incredibly hyped up by the Western media… And the only logical reason for why they'd do that is to distract from their own domestic issues.

    One thing though, I'd add to this analysis is that when Russia finally pulls back their troops they will eventually be the ones who get to say "look we've been saying all along there won't be a war, there won't be an invasion."

    So Russia will look like the ones who kept their word and were reasonable all along while the US and the UK will look like idiots for predicting an imminent invasion and war in a matter of days.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cherry Sist says:

    I'm from england ( uk ) People from Poland , ukraine and many east European countries of ex USSR are very nice good hearted people . Everyone should leave these countries alone to decide there own paths .
    A MASIVE worry is China watching , whose eager to land grab other countries like the Philippines which they already started to occupying island's .
    Putin is doing it to have a barrier. China is just f@@king gready .

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JT says:

    I am new as a subscriber but Tom, you really have good content. I love your deep analysis and frank opinions. Please keep up the great work.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars MrVito1180 says:

    I think you are too optimistic on this. The US backed global security system is in shambles. There is a huge power vacuum now in the globe and you will see more wars of control. Nature abhors a vacuum my friend!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris Borns says:

    Biden just needed this as much as Puttin needed to destabilize Ukraine. This is the perfect distraction from being a president in a nation that knows he is a worthless idiot. Shout out to his support numbers.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Martin says:

    I believe the purpose of Putin taking militar control of eastern Ukraine is to avoid separatists doing weird things.
    He will control them to avoid mistakes that could fire a war, because nobody wants it. But separatists maybe want to start the fire and get Russia involved. Instead Russia involved with them to control the situation and have peace, obviously taking the opportunity to show the world strength taking over this region as a victory.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Foamrite Acoustics says:

    If the people of Donetsk and Luhansk want independence or union with Russia, just let them..? Isnโ€™t that democracy? A lot of Americans supported Kosovo independence but wonโ€™t support these regions if they want independence. Why?

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Julius Wang says:

    You are correct, Tom. I agree with you. Putin also checkmated CCPโ€™s Xi, because Xi funded Putinโ€™s show to escalate the Ukraine crisis. Xi sold out China to Putin for his support to become Chinaโ€™s โ€œLast Emperorโ€.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars AttitudeAdjusterAA says:

    I agree with you on most points, but if he could get away with it he would or if he gets the chance he will take Ukraine, weather by force or by influence. His point is to destablelise NATO, so he will push it as far as he can, as long as the cost is cheap for him.

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Unitedflyier says:

    I knew he would invade as soon as Putin took his private yacht out of a Hamburg shipyard during a refit. It wasn't finished it hurriedly left and went back to Russian waters.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Justin VanDuser says:

    Putin does not have to answer to voters … it gives him huge advantages in diplomacy when he Sabre rattles along w his talk

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ramses4321 says:

    What we have here is Putin and his SDS (Small D*ck Syndrome). Most dictators have this syndrome. The problem is that this syndrome comes along with some other pathologies like psychopathy and sociopathy and this is where the dangers lies. They have a tendency to f*k millions of people lives.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Adam Mcgrath says:

    Well we knew that was coming. Now Putin knows how to cause hysteria. Imagine Biden trying to outsmart Putin??!?๐Ÿคฃ

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Matthew Thrasher says:

    Thanks, Tom! Unrelated, but why does this Russian girl at work never smile?!? I normally try and play the funny guy, but this one has me feeling defeated. : (

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Russty Russ says:

    Everything is controlled by main media…and they are definitely using it to control the market, entirely, generally, constantly. This could certainly be just one other series of shows. Doesn't necessarily exclude the possibility of war. I don't see the advantage for the US side though, so Putin is just jerking the stock market around without probably even knowing it.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars C Koba says:

    You need to consider Crimea's water supply being shut off by Ukraine, Putin needs to gain access to the river because theyre currently trucking in the entire water supply for Crimea and its not enough. Russia does like taking advantage of war situations to showcase their newest weapons for countries to buy.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars D Taylor says:

    Tom, you clearly did not listen to Putin's speach last night, or read previous papers written by Putin on Ukraine?
    Putin passionately believes Ukraine is part of Russia. He resents in the highest order Ukraine breakaway from communism, and considers it a insult to the history of the Soviets.
    If you continue this drivel it may be considered Russian Propaganda and you may find yourself sanctioned…. Lol

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Zach Wolfe says:

    imagine if putin does not invade, and all these sanctions take place against russian energy… everyone in NATO nations would basically see triple energy prices and blame their own governments for it! plus, russia would not have to bear the brunt of war!! that would be a 3rd order head fake right there

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Serra Falcon says:

    Like your evaluation here. Maybe as suggested, Putin is aiming to destabilize the current Ukrainian gov, hopefully to bring him off his seat. Or even subsequently, to have a new replacement gov whom is pro-Russian in order to 'so-called' bring the whole conflict to an end. War just simply makes no sense and does not benefit Russia in anyway..

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Swjatoslaw Gorodetski says:

    Was thinking the same. Especially after he anounced that LDNR republics. I was thinking that he made it more Ukraine centric, to give more power to the Ukrainian parties who pretend to want a more Belarus like politic, where they aren't opposed to Russia and have to "maneuver" between the West and Russia. And this parties can now easily use the rhetoric that the West will chicken out, so Ukraine will have to be friendly with Russia.

  30. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars oebydoeby says:

    I did not expect he would risk this untill the gas deal with China. Sure it will take a few years but this deal will solve the decline of gas supply in Europe if they start importing LNG. He does not need Nordstream2 anymore. Just supply less for higher price and keep your reserves for China. It is still disgusting to play these political games at the expense of normal ppl. China also knows how to play this "game". Let's see if he claims victory in the west to be stabbed in the back by the east.

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